工具列表

序号	名称	关键词	出现的章节
2022-02-17
1	焦点小组	相关方和主题专家，了解他们对所讨论的产品、服务或成果的期望和态度的一种启发	4.1 制定项目章程 4.2 制定项目管理计划 5.2收集需求
2	访谈	通过与相关方直接交谈，来获取信息的正式或非正式方法	4.1 制定项目章程 4.2 制定项目管理计划 5.2 收集需求 8.1 规划质量管理 11.2 识别风险 11.3 实施风险定性分析 11.4 实施风险定量分析 11.5 规划风险应对
3	市场调研	运用从会议、在线评论和各种其他渠道得到的信息，来了解市场情况	12.1 规划采购管理
4	问卷调查	设计一系列书面问题，向众多受访者快速手机信息	5.2 收集需求 8.3 控制质量 13.1 识别相关方
2022-02-18
5	统计抽样	从目标总体中选取部分样本用于检查	8.3 控制质量
6	备选方案分析	对不同的方案进行分析，选择最优的方案	4.5 监控项目工作 4.6 实施整体变更控制 5.1 规划范围管理 5.3 定义范围 6.1 规划进度管理 6.4 估算活动持续时间 7.1 规划成本管理 7.2 估算成本 8.2 管理质量 9.2 估算资源 9.6 控制资源 11.5 规划风险应对 13.4监督相关方参与
7	其他风险参数评估	对单个风险进行优先级排序时，可能考虑其他风险特征	11.3 实施风险定性分析
8	假设条件和制约因素分析	探索假设条件和制约因素的有效性，确定其中哪些会引发项目风险	11.2 识别风险 13.2 规划相关方参与
2022-02-19
9	质量成本	在整个产品生命周期所产生的所有成本	7.2 估算成本 8.1 规划质量管理
10	成本效益分析	比较项目成本与其带来的收益的财务分析工具	4.5 监控项目工作 4.6 实施整体变更控制 8.1 规划质量管理 9.6 控制资源 11.5 规划风险应对
11	决策树分析	用来评估与一个决策相关的多个可选方案在不确定情况下的可能后果	11.4 实施风险定量分析
12	文件分析	分析相关文件改进未来项目和组织资产、收集需求、质量偏差、识别分线以及识别相关方	4.7 结束项目或阶段 5.2 收集需求 8.2 管理质量 11.2 识别风险 13.1 识别相关方
2022-02-20
13	挣值分析	对范围、进度和成本绩效进行了综合分析	4.5 监控项目工作 6.6 实施整体变更控制 7.4 控制成本 12.3 控制采购
14	影响图	对变量和结果之间的因果关系、事件时间顺序及其他关系的图形表示	11.4 实施风险定量分析
15	迭代燃尽图	追踪迭代未完项中待完成的工作	6.6 控制进度
16	自制和外购分析	确定是团队自己完成还是从外部采购	12.1 规划采购管理
2022-02-21
17	绩效审查	测量、对比或分析实际与计划的绩效	6.6 控制进度 8.3 控制质量 9.6 控制资源 12.3 控制采购
18	过程分析	识别过程改进机会，同时检查在过程期间遇到的问题、制约因素，以及非增值活动	8.2 管理质量
19	建议书评价	为做出合同授予决定而用于评审供应商提交的建议书的各种技术	12.2 管理采购
20	回归分析	通过考察一系列输入变量及其对应的输出结果，建立数学或统计关系	4.7 结束项目或阶段
2022-02-22
21	储备分析	用来明确项目管理计划各组成部分的基本特征及其相互关系，从而为项目的工期、预算、成本估算和资金需求设定储备	6.4 估算活动持续时间 7.2 估算成本 7.3 制定预算 7.4 控制成本 11.7 控制风险
22	风险数据质量评估	评估风险数据对风险管理的有用程度	11.3 实施风险定性分析
23	风险概率和影响评估	风险发生的可能性，风险对进度、成本、质量或绩效的影响	11.3 实施风险定性分析
24	根本原因分析	确定引起偏差、缺陷或风险的根本原因	4.5 监控项目工作 8.2 管理质量 8.3 控制质量 11.2 规划风险管理 13.2 规划相关方参与 13.4 监督相关方参与
2022-02-23
25	敏感性分析	一种定量风险分析技术，将项目结果的变化与定量风险分析模型中输入的的变化建立关联，从而确定对项目结果产生最大潜在影响的单个项目风险或其他不确定性来源	11.4 实施风险定量分析
26	模拟	一种分析技术，通过建立模型，来综合分析各种不确定性因素，评估这些因素对目标的，潜在影响	6.5 制定进度计划 11.4 实施风险定量分析
27	相关方分析	通过系统收集和分析各种定量与定性信息，来确定在整个项目中应该考虑哪些人的利益	11.1 规划风险管理 13.1 识别相关方 13.4 监督相关方参与
28	SWOT分析	对一个组织、项目或备选方案的优势、劣势、机会和威胁的分析	11.2 识别风险
2022-02-24
29	技术绩效分析	技术成果与计划相比	11.7 监督风险
30	趋势分析	根据历史数据并利用数学模型，预测未来	4.5 监控项目工作 4.7 结束项目或阶段 5.6 控制范围 6.6 控制进度 7.4 控制成本 9.6 控制资源 12.3 控制采购
31	偏差分析	确定实际绩效与基准的差异程度及原因	4.5 监控项目工作 4.7 结束项目或阶段 5.6 控制范围 6.6 控制进度 7.4 控制成本
32	假设情景分析	对各种情景进行评估，预测它们对项目目标的影响	6.5 指定进度计划 6.6 控制进度
2022-02-25
33	概率和影响矩阵	把每个风险发生的概率和一旦发生对项目目标的影响映射起来	11.3 实施风险定性分析
34	相关方参与度评估矩阵	将当前与期望的相关方参与程度进行比较	10.1 规划沟通管理 10.3 监督沟通 13.2 规划相关方参与 13.4 监督相关放参与
35	相关方映射分析/表现	利用不同方法对相关方进行分类的方法	13.1 识别相关方
36	流程图	对某系统内的一个或多个过程的输入、过程行为和输出的图形描述	8.1 规划质量管理 8.2 管理质量
2022-02-26
37	逻辑数据模型		8.1 规划质量管理
38	思维导图	头脑风暴中的创意整合成一张图，反映创意之间的共性与差异，激发新创意	5.2 收集需求 8.1 规划质量管理 13.2 规划相关方参与
39	矩阵图	使用矩阵结构对数据进行分析，在行列交叉的为位置展示引述、原因和目标之间的关系强弱	8.1 规划质量管理 8.2 管理质量
40	亲和图	对大量创意进行分组，以便进一步审查和分析	5.2 收集需求 8.2 管理质量
2022-02-27
41	因果图	分解技术，有助于追溯造成非预期的结果的根本原因	8.2 管理质量 8.3 控制质量
42	直方图	展示数字数据的条形图	8.2 管理质量
43	散点图	展示两个变量的关系	8.2 管理质量 8.3 控制质量
44	控制图	按时间顺序展示过程数据，并将这些数据与既定的控制界限相比较的一种图形。控制图有一条中心线，有助于观察图中的数据点向两边控制界限偏移的趋势	8.3 控制质量
2022-02-28
45	责任分配矩阵	执行、负责、咨询和知情等词语来定义相关方在活动中的参与状态	9.1 规划资源管理
46	文本型	通过文本详细描述团队成员的职责	9.1 规划资源管理
47	层级型	通过工作分解结构（WBS）、组织分解结构（OBS）和资源分解结构（RBS)自上而下显示各种职位及其相互关系	9.1 规划资源管理
48	层级图	两个以上风险参数时使用，例如气泡图	11.3 实施风险定性分析
2022-03-01
49	多标准决策与分析	借助决策树矩阵，用系统分析方法建立诸如风险水平、不确定性和价值收益等多种标准，从而对多方案进行评估和排序	4.6 实施整体变更控制 5.2 收集需求 5.3 定义需求 8.1 制定质量管理计划 8.2 管理质量 9.3 估算资源 11.5 实施风险应对 13.4 监督相关方参与
50	投票	一致同意、大多数同意或相对多数同意	4.5 监控项目工作 4.6 实施整体变更控制 5.2 收集需求 5.5 确认范围 6.4 估算活动持续时间 7.2 估算成本 13.4 监督相关方参与
51	独裁型决策制定	将由一个人负责整个集体制定决策	4.6 实施整体变更控制 5.2 收集需求
52	优先级排序/分级	对相关方及需求进行优先级排序或分级	13.2 规划相关方参与
2022-03-02
53	沟通胜任力	经过裁剪的沟通技能的组合，有助于明确关键信息的目的、建立有效关系、实现信息共享和采取领导行为	10.2 管理沟通
54	非语言	通过示意、语调和面部表情等适当的肢体语言表达意思	10.2 管理沟通
55	反馈	沟通、可交付成果或情况的反应信息	10.2 管理沟通 13.3 管理相关方参与 13.4 监督相关方参与
56	演示	向相关方明确有效地演示项目信息	10.2 管理沟通 13.4监督相关方参与
2022-03-03
57	积极倾听	与说话人保持互动，并总结对话内容，以确保有效的信息交换，减少误解病促进沟通和知识分享	4.4 管理项目知识 10.2 管理沟通 13.4 监督相关方参与
58	沟通风格评估	识别与相关方展开沟通的优选沟通方法、形式和内容的一种技术	10.1 规划沟通管理
59	冲突管理	撤退/回避、缓和/包容、妥协/调节、强迫/命令、合作/解决问题	4.1 制定项目章程 4.2 制定项目管理计划 9.4 创建团队 9.5 管理团队 10.2 管理沟通 13.3 管理相关方参与
60	文化意识	文化意识指理解个人、群体和组织之间的差异，并据此调整项目的沟通策略	10.1 规划沟通管理 10.2 管理沟通 13.3 管理相关方参与 13.4 监督相关方参与
2022-03-04
61	制定决策	谈判能力以及影响组织与项目管理团队的能力	9.5 管理团队
62	情商	管理个人、他人及团队情绪，了解团队情绪、关注点、问题，减轻压力和加强合作	9.5 管理团队
63	引导	有助于有效指引团队成功地达成决定、解决方案或结论	4.1 制定下项目章程 4.2 制定项目管理计划 4.4 管理项目知识 5.2 收集需求 5.3 定义需求 11.2 识别风险 11.3 实施风险定性分析 11.4 实施风险定量分析 11.5 规划风险应对
64	影响力	影响相关方的能力，有利于解决问题、达成一致意见、项目成功	9.4 建设团队 9.5 管理团队 9.6 控制资源

|1|焦点小组|4.1 4.2 5.2

4.1
焦点小组召集相关方和主题专家讨论项目风险、成功标准和其他议题，比一对一访谈更有利于互动交流。
4.2
焦点小组召集相关方讨论项目管理方法以及项目管理计划各个组成部分的整合方式。
5.2
焦点小组是召集预定的相关方和主题专家，了解他们对所讨论的产品、服务或成果的期望和态度。由一位受过训练的主持人引导大家进行互动式讨论。焦点小组往往比“一
对一”的访谈更热烈。

4.1
Focus groups bring together stakeholders and subject matter experts to learn about the perceived project risk, success criteria, and other topics in a more conversational way than a one-on-one interview.
4.2
Focus groups bring together stakeholders to discuss the project management approach and the integration of the different components of the project management plan.
5.2
Focus groups bring together prequalified stakeholders and subject matter experts to learn about their expectations and attitudes about a proposed product, service, or result. A trained moderator guides the group through an interactive discussion designed to be more conversational than a one-on-one interview.

|2|访谈|4.1 4.2 5.2 8.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5

4.1
访谈是指通过与相关方直接交谈来了解高层级需求、假设条件、制约因素、审批标准以及其他信息。
4.2
访谈用于从相关方获取特定信息，用以制定项目管理计划、任何子计划或项目文件。
5.2
访谈是通过与相关方直接交谈，来获取信息的正式或非正式的方法。访谈的典型做法是向被访者提出预设和即兴的问题，并记录他们的回答。访谈经常是一个访谈者和一个被访者之间的“一对一”谈话，但也可以包括多个访谈者和/或多个被访者。访谈有经验的项目参与者、发起人和其他高管，以及主题专家，有助于识别和定义所需产品可交付成果的特征和功能。访谈也可用于获取机密信息。
8.1
访谈有经验的项目参与者、相关方和主题专家有助于了解他们对项目和产品质量的隐性和显性、正式和非正式的需求和期望。应在信任和保密的环境下开展访谈，以获
得真实可信、不带偏见的反馈。
11.2
可以通过对资深项目参与者、相关方和主题专家的访谈，来识别单个项目风险以及整体项目风险的来源。应该在信任和保密的环境下开展访谈（见 5.2.2.2 节），以获得真实可信、不带偏见的意见。
11.3
结构化或半结构化的访谈（见 5.2.2.2 节）
可用于评估单个项目风险的概率和影响，以及其他因素。访谈者应该营造信任和保密的访谈环境，以鼓励被访者提出诚实和无偏见的意见。
11.4
访谈（见 5.2.2.2 节）可用于针对单个项目风险和其他不确定性来源，生成定量风险分析的输入。当需要向专家征求信息时，访谈尤其适用。访谈者应该营造信任和保密的访谈环境，以鼓励被访者提出诚实和无偏见的意见。
11.5
单个项目风险和整体项目风险的应对措施可以在与风险责任人的结构化或半结构化的访谈（见 5.2.2.2 节）中制定。必要时，也可访谈其他相关方。访谈者应该营造信任和保密的访谈环境，以鼓励被访者提出诚实和无偏见的意见。

4.1
Interviews are used to obtain information on high-level requirements, assumptions or constraints, approval criteria, and other information from stakeholders by talking directly to them.
4.2
Interviews are used to obtain specific information from stakeholders to develop the project management plan or any component plan or project document.
5.2
An interview is a formal or informal approach to elicit information from stakeholders by talking to them directly. It is typically performed by asking prepared and spontaneous questions and recording the responses. Interviews are often conducted on an individual basis between an interviewer and an interviewee, but may involve multiple interviewers and/or multiple interviewees. Interviewing experienced project participants, sponsors, other executives, and subject matter experts can aid in identifying and defining the features and functions of the desired product deliverables. Interviews are also useful for obtaining confidential information.
8.1
Project and product quality needs and expectations, implicit and explicit, formal and informal, can be identified by interviewing experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject matter experts. Interviews should be conducted in an environment of trust and confidentiality to encourage honest and unbiased contributions.
11.2
Individual project risks and sources of overall project risk can be identified by interviewing experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject matter experts. Interviews (see Section 5.2.2.2) should be conducted in an environment of trust and confidentiality to encourage honest and unbiased contributions.
11.3
Structured or
semi-structured interviews (Section 5.2.2.2) can be used to assess the probability and impacts of individual project risks, as well as other factors. The interviewer should promote an environment of trust and confidentiality in the interview setting to encourage honest and unbiased assessments.
11.4
Interviews (see Section 5.2.2.2) may be used to generate inputs for the quantitative risk analysis, drawing on inputs that include individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty. This is particularly useful where information is required from experts. The interviewer should promote an environment of trust and confidentiality during the interview to encourage honest and unbiased contributions.
11.5
Data-gathering techniques that can be used for this process include but are not limited to interviews (see Section 5.2.2.2). Development of responses to individual project risks and overall project risk may be undertaken during structured or semi-structured interviews (see Section 5.2.2.2) with risk owners. Other stakeholders may also be interviewed if necessary. The interviewer should promote an environment of trust and confidentiality in the interview setting to encourage honest and unbiased decisions.

|3|市场调研|12.1

12.1
市场调研包括考察行业情况和具体卖方的能力。采购团队可运用从会议、在线评论和各种其他渠道得到的信息，来了解市场情况。采购团队也可以调整具体的采购目标，以便在平衡与有能力提供所需材料或服务的卖方的范围有关的风险的同时，利用成熟技术。

12.1
Market research includes examination of industry and specific seller capabilities. Procurement teams may leverage information gained at conferences, online reviews, and a variety of sources to identify market capabilities. The team may also refine specific procurement objectives to leverage maturing technologies while balancing risks associated with the breadth of sellers who can provide the desired materials or services.

|4|问卷调查|5.2 8.3 13.1

5.2
问卷调查是指设计一系列书面问题，向众多受访者快速收集信息。问卷调查方法非常适用于以下情况：受众多样化，需要快速完成调查，受访者地理位置分散，并且适合开展统计分析。
8.3
问卷调查可用于在部署产品或服务之后收集关于客户满意度的数据。在问卷调查中识别的缺陷相关成本可被视为 COQ 模型中的外部失败成本，给组织带来的影响会超出成
本本身。
13.1
问卷和调查可以包括一对一调查、焦点小组讨论，或其他大规模信息收集技术。

5.2
Questionnaires and surveys are written sets of questions designed to quickly accumulate information from a large number of respondents. Questionnaires and/or surveys are most appropriate with varied audiences, when a quick turnaround is needed, when respondents are geographically dispersed, and where statistical analysis could be appropriate.
8.3
Surveys may be used to gather data about customer satisfaction after the deployment of the product or service. The cost regarding defects identified in the surveys may be considered external failure costs in the COQ model and can have extensive cost implications for the organization.
13.1
Questionnaires and surveys can include one-on-one reviews, focus group sessions, or other mass information collection techniques.

|5|统计抽样|8.3

8.3
统计抽样是指从目标总体中选取部分样本用于检查（如从 75 张工程图纸中随机抽取10 张）。样本用于测量控制和确认质量。抽样的频率和规模应在规划质量管理过程中确定。
8.3
Statistical sampling involves choosing part of a population of interest for inspection (for example, selecting 10 engineering drawings at random from a list of 75). The sample is taken to measure controls and verify quality. Sample frequency and sizes should be determined during the Plan Quality Management process.

|6|备选方案分析|4.5 4.6 5.1 5.3 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.2 8.2 9.2 9.6 11.5 13.4

4.5
备选方案分析用于在出现偏差时选择要执行的纠正措施或纠正措施和预防措施的组合。
4.6
该技术用于评估变更请求，并决定哪些请求可接受、应否决或需修改。
5.1
本技术用于评估收集需求、详述项目和产品范围、创造产品、确认范围和控制范围的各种方法。
5.3
备选方案分析可用于评估实现项目章程中所述的需求和目标的各种方法。
6.1
备选方案分析可包括确定采用哪些进度计划方法，以及如何将不同方法整合到项目中；此外，它还可以包括确定进度计划的详细程度、滚动式规划的持续时间，以及审查和更新频率。管理进度所需的计划详细程度与更新计划所需的时间量之间的平衡，应针对各个项目具体而言。
6.4
备选方案分析用于比较不同的资源能力或技能水平、进度压缩技术（见 6.5.2.6节）、不同工具（手动和自动），以及关于资源的创建、租赁和购买决策。这有助于团队权衡资源、成本和持续时间变量，以确定完成项目工作的最佳方式。
7.1
备选方案分析可包括审查筹资的战略方法，如自筹资金、股权投资、借贷投资等，还可以包括对筹集项目资源的方法（如自制、采购、租用或租赁）的考量。
7.2
备选方案分析是一种对已识别的可选方案进行评估的技术，用来决定选择哪种方案或使用何种方法来执行项目工作。例如评估购买和制造可交付成果分别对成本、进度、资源和质量的影响。
8.2
该技术用于评估已识别的可选方案，以选择那些最合适的质量方案或方法。
9.2
备选方案分析是一种对已识别的可选方案进行评估的技术，用来决定选择哪种方案或使用何种方法来执行项目工作。很多活动有多个备选的实施方案，例如使用能力或技能水平不同的资源、不同规模或类型的机器、不同的工具（手工或自动），以及关于资源自制、租赁或购买的决策。备选方案分析有助于提供在定义的制约因素范围内执行项目活动的最佳方案。
9.6
备选方案分析有助于选择最佳解决方案以纠正资源使用偏差，可以将加班和增加团队资源等备选方案与延期交付或阶段性交付相比较，以权衡利弊。
11.5
对备选风险应对方案的特征和要求进行简单比较，进而确定哪个应对方案最为适用。
13.4
在相关方参与效果没有达到期望要求时，应该开展备选方案分析，评估应对偏差的各种备选方案。

4.5
Alternatives analysis is used to select the corrective actions or a combination of corrective and preventive actions to implement when a deviation occurs.
4.6
Described in Section 9.2.2.5. This technique is used to assess the requested changes and decide which are accepted, rejected, or need to be modified to be finally accepted.
5.1
Various ways of collecting requirements, elaborating the project and product scope, creating the product, validating the scope, and controlling the scope are evaluated.
5.3
Alternatives analysis can be used to evaluate ways to meet the requirements and the objectives identified in the charter.
6.1
Alternatives analysis can include determining which schedule methodology to use, or how to combine various methods on the project. It can also include determining how detailed the schedule needs to be, the duration of waves for rolling wave planning, and how often it should be reviewed and updated. An appropriate balance between the level of detail needed to manage the schedule and the amount of time it takes to keep it up to date needs to be reached for each project.
6.4
Alternatives analysis is used to compare various levels of resource capability or skills; scheduling compression techniques (described in Section 6.5.2.6); different tools (manual versus automated); and make, rent, or buy decisions regarding the resources. This allows the team to weigh resource, cost, and duration variables to determine an optimal approach for accomplishing project work.
7.1
Alternatives analysis can include reviewing strategic funding options such as: self-funding, funding with equity, or funding with debt. It can also include consideration of ways to acquire project resources such as making, purchasing, renting, or leasing.
7.2
Alternatives analysis is a technique used to evaluate identified options in order to select which options or approaches to use to execute and perform the work of the project. An example would be evaluating the cost, schedule, resource, and quality impacts of buying versus making a deliverable.
8.2
This technique is used to evaluate identified options in order to select which different quality options or approaches are most appropriate to use.
9.2
Alternatives analysis is used to evaluate identified options in order to select the options or approaches to use to execute and perform the work of the project. Many activities have multiple options for accomplishment. They include using various levels of resource capability or skills, different sizes or types of machines, different tools (manual versus automated), and make-rent-orbuy decisions regarding the resources. Alternatives analysis assists in providing the best solution to perform the project activities, within the defined constraints.
9.6
Alternatives can be analyzed to select the best resolution for correcting variances in resource utilization. Alternatives such as paying additional for overtime or additional team resources can be weighed against a late delivery or phased deliveries.
11.5
A simple comparison of the characteristics and requirements of alternative risk response options can lead to a decision on which response is most appropriate.
13.4
Alternatives analysis can be used to evaluate options to respond to variances in the desired results of stakeholder engagement.

|7|其他风险参数评估|11.3

11.3
为了方便未来分析和行动，在对单个项目风险进行优先级排序时，项目团队可能考虑（除概率和影响以外的）其他风险特征。此类特征可能包括（但不限于）：

• 紧迫性。 为有效应对风险而必须采取应对措施的时间段。时间短就说明紧迫性高。
• 邻近性。 风险在多长时间后会影响一项或多项项目目标。时间短就说明邻近性高。
• 潜伏期。 从风险发生到影响显现之间可能的时间段。时间短就说明潜伏期短。
• 可管理性。 风险责任人（或责任组织）管理风险发生或影响的容易程度。如果容易管理，可管理性就高。
• 可控性。 风险责任人（或责任组织）能够控制风险后果的程度。如果后果很容易控制，可控性就高。
• 可监测性。 对风险发生或即将发生进行监测的容易程度。如果风险发生很容易监测，可监测性就高。
• 连通性。 风险与其他单个项目风险存在关联的程度大小。如果风险与多个其他风险存在关联，连通性就高。
• 战略影响力。 风险对组织战略目标潜在的正面或负面影响。如果风险对战略目标有重大影响，战略影响力就大。
• 密切度。 风险被一名或多名相关方认为要紧的程度。被认为很要紧的风险，密切度就高。
  相对于仅评估概率和影响，考虑上述某些特征有助于进行更稳健的风险优先级排序。
  11.3
  The project team may consider other characteristics of risk (in addition to probability and impact) when prioritizing individual project risks for further analysis and action. These characteristics may include but are not limited to:
• Urgency. The period of time within which a response to the risk is to be implemented in order to be effective. A short period indicates high urgency.
• Proximity. The period of time before the risk might have an impact on one or more project objectives. A short period indicates high proximity.
• Dormancy. The period of time that may elapse after a risk has occurred before its impact is discovered. A short period indicates low dormancy.
• Manageability. The ease with which the risk owner (or owning organization) can manage the occurrence or impact of a risk. Where management is easy, manageability is high.
• Controllability. The degree to which the risk owner (or owning organization) is able to control the risk’s outcome. Where the outcome can be easily controlled, controllability is high.
• Detectability. The ease with which the results of the risk occurring, or being about to occur, can be detected and recognized. Where the risk occurrence can be detected easily, detectability is high.
• Connectivity. The extent to which the risk is related to other individual project risks. Where a risk is connected to many other risks, connectivity is high.
• Strategic impact. The potential for the risk to have a positive or negative effect on the organization’s strategic goals. Where the risk has a major effect on strategic goals, strategic impact is high.
• Propinquity. The degree to which a risk is perceived to matter by one or more stakeholders. Where a risk is perceived as very significant, propinquity is high.
  The consideration of some of these characteristics can provide a more robust prioritization of risks than is possible by only assessing probability and impact.

|8|假设条件和制约因素分析|11.2 13.2

11.2
每个项目及其项目管理计划的构思和开发都基于一系列的假设条件，并受一系列制约因素的限制。这些假设条件和制约因素往往都已纳入范围基准和项目估算。开展假设条件和制约因素分析，来探索假设条件和制约因素的有效性，确定其中哪些会引发项目风险。从假设条件的不准确、不稳定、不一致或不完整，可以识别出威胁，通过清除或放松会影响项目或过程执行的制约因素，可以创造出机会。
13.2
可能需要分析当前的假设条件和制约因素，以合理剪裁相关方参与策略。

11.2
Every project and its project management plan are conceived and developed based on a set of assumptions and within a series of constraints. These are often already incorporated in the scope baseline and project estimates. Assumption and constraint analysis explores the validity of assumptions and constraints to determine which pose a risk to the project. Threats may be identified from the inaccuracy, instability, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. Constraints may give rise to opportunities through removing or relaxing a limiting factor that affects the execution of a project or process.
13.2
Analysis of current assumptions and constraints may be conducted in order to tailor appropriate engagement strategies.

|9|质量成本|7.2 8.1

7.2
在估算时，可能要用到关于质量成本（见 8.1.2.3 节）的各种假设，这包括对以下情况进行评估：是为达到要求而增加投入，还是承担不符合要求而造成的成本；是寻求短期成本降低，还是承担产品生命周期后期频繁出现问题的后果。
8.1
与项目有关的质量成本 (COQ) 包含以下一种或多种成本（图 8-5 提供了各组成本的例子）：

• 预防成本。 预防特定项目的产品、可交付成果或服务质量低劣所带来的相关成本。
• 评估成本。 评估、测量、审计和测试特定项目的产品、可交付成果或服务所带来的相关成本。
• 失败成本（内部/外部）。 因产品、可交付成果或服务与相关方需求或期望不一致而导致的相关成本。
  最优 COQ 能够在预防成本和评估成本之间找到恰当的投资平衡点，以规避失败成本。有关模型表明，最优项目质量成本，指在投资额外的预防/评估成本时，既无益处又不具备成本效益。
  

7.2
Assumptions about costs of quality (Section 8.1.2.3) may be used to prepare the estimates. This includes evaluating the cost impact of additional investment in conformance versus the cost of nonconformance. It can also include looking at short-term cost reductions versus the implication of more frequent problems later on in the product life cycle.
8.1
The cost of quality (COQ) associated with a project consists of one or more of the following costs (Figure 8-5 lists examples for each cost group):

• Prevention costs. Costs related to the prevention of poor quality in the products, deliverables, or services of the specific project.
• Appraisal costs. Costs related to evaluating, measuring, auditing, and testing the products, deliverables, or services of the specific project.
• Failure costs (internal/external). Costs related to nonconformance of the products, deliverables, or services to the needs or expectations of the stakeholders.
  The optimal COQ is one that reflects the appropriate balance for investing in the cost of prevention and appraisal to avoid failure costs. Models show that there is an optimal quality cost for projects, where investing in additional prevention/appraisal costs is neither beneficial nor cost effective.
  

|10|成本效益分析|4.5 4.6 8.1 9.6 11.5

4.5
成本效益分析有助于在项目出现偏差时确定最节约成本的纠正措施。
4.6
该分析有助于确定变更请求是否值得投入相关成本。
8.1
成本效益分析是用来估算备选方案优势和劣势的财务分析工具，以确定可以创造最佳效益的备选方案。成本效益分析可帮助项目经理确定规划的质量活动是否有效利用了成本。达到质量要求的主要效益包括减少返工、提高生产率、降低成本、提升相关方满意度及提升赢利能力。对每个质量活动进行成本效益分析，就是要比较其可能成本与预期效益。
9.6
成本效益分析有助于在项目成本出现差异时确定最佳的纠正措施。
11.5
如果能够把单个项目风险的影响进行货币量化，那么就可以通过成本收益分析（见 8.1.2.3 节）来确定备选风险应对策略的成本有效性。把应对策略将导致的风险影响级别变更除以策略的实施成本，所得到的比率，就代表了应对策略的成本有效性。比率越高，有效性就越高。

4.5
Cost-benefit analysis helps to determine the best corrective action in terms of cost in case of project deviations.
4.6
This analysis helps to determine if the requested change is worth its associated cost.
8.1
A cost-benefit analysis is a financial analysis tool used to estimate the strengths and weaknesses of alternatives in order to determine the best alternative in terms of benefits provided. A costbenefit analysis will help the project manager determine if the planned quality activities are cost effective. The primary benefits of meeting quality requirements include less rework, higher productivity, lower costs, increased stakeholder satisfaction, and increased profitability. A cost-benefit analysis for each quality activity compares the cost of the quality step to the expected benefit.
9.6
This analysis helps to determine the best corrective action in terms of cost in case of project deviations.
11.5
If the impact of an individual project risk can be quantified in monetary terms, then the cost-effectiveness of alternative risk response strategies can be determined using cost-benefit analysis (see Section 8.1.2.3). The ratio of (change in impact level) divided by (implementation cost) gives the cost effectiveness of the response strategy, with a higher ratio indicating a more effective response.

|11|决策树分析|11.4

11.4
用决策树在若干备选行动方案中选择一个最佳方案。在决策树中，用不同的分支代表不同的决策或事件，即项目的备选路径。每个决策或事件都有相关的成本和单个项目
风险（包括威胁和机会）。决策树分支的终点表示沿特定路径发展的最后结果，可以是负面或正面的结果。
在决策树分析中，通过计算每条分支的预期货币价值，就可以选出最优的路径。决策树示例，见图11-15。

11.4
Decision trees are used to support selection of the best of several alternative courses of action. Alternative paths through the project are shown in the decision tree using branches representing different decisions or events, each of which can have associated costs and related individual project risks (including both threats and opportunities). The end-points of branches in the decision tree represent the outcome from following that particular path, which can be negative or positive.
The decision tree is evaluated by calculating the expected monetary value of each branch, allowing the optimal path to be selected. An example decision tree is shown in Figure 11-15.

|12|文件分析|4.7 5.2 8.2 11.2 13.1

4.7
评估现有文件有助于总结经验教训和分享知识，以改进未来项目和组织资产。
5.2
文件分析包括审核和评估任何相关的文件信息。在此过程中，文件分析用于通过分析现有文件，识别与需求相关的信息来获取需求。有助于获取相关需求的文件很多。可供分析的文件包括（但不限于）：

• 协议；
• 商业计划；
• 业务流程或接口文档；
• 业务规则库；
• 现行流程；
• 市场文献；
• 问题日志；
• 政策和程序；
• 法规文件，如法律、准则、法令等；
• 建议邀请书；
• 用例。
  8.2
  分析项目控制过程所输出的不同文件，如质量报告、测试报告、绩效报告和偏差分析，可以重点指出可能超出控制范围之外并阻碍项目团队满足特定要求或相关方期望的过程。
  11.2
  通过对项目文件的结构化审查，可以识别出一些风险。可供审查的文件包括（但不限于）计划、假设条件、制约因素、以往项目档案、合同、协议和技术文件。项目文件中的不确定性或模糊性，以及同一文件内部或不同文件之间的不一致，都可能是项目风险的指示信号。
  13.1
  评估现有项目文件及以往项目的经验教训，以识别相关方和其他支持性信息。

4.7
Assessing available documentation will allow identifying lessons learned and knowledge sharing for future projects and organizational assets improvement.
5.2
Document analysis consists of reviewing and assessing any relevant documented information. In this process, document analysis is used to elicit requirements by analyzing existing documentation and identifying information relevant to the requirements. There is a wide range of documents that may be analyzed to help elicit relevant requirements. Examples of documents that may be analyzed include but are not limited to:

• Agreements;
• Business plans;
• Business process or interface documentation;
• Business rules repositories;
• Current process flows;
• Marketing literature;
• Problem/issue logs;
• Policies and procedures;
• Regulatory documentation such as laws, codes, or ordinances, etc.;
• Requests for proposal; and
• Use cases.
  8.2
  The analysis of different documents produced as part of the output of project control processes, such as quality reports, test reports, performance reports, and variance analysis, can point to and focus on processes that may be out of control and may jeopardize meeting the specified requirements or stakeholders’ expectations.
  11.2
  Risks may be identified from a structured review of project documents, including, but not limited to, plans, assumptions, constraints, previous project files, contracts, agreements, and technical documentation. Uncertainty or ambiguity in project documents, as well as
  inconsistencies within a document or between different documents, may be indicators of risk on the project.
  13.1
  Assessing the available project documentation and lessons learned from previous projects to identify stakeholders and other supporting information.

|13|挣值分析|4.5 6.6 7.4 12.3

4.5
挣值分析对范围、进度和成本绩效进行了综合分析。
6.6
进度绩效测量指标（如进度偏差（SV）和进度绩效指数（SPI））用于评价偏离初始进度基准的程度。
7.4
挣值分析将实际进度和成本绩效与绩效测量基准进行比较。 EVM把范围基准、成本基准和进度基准整合起来，形成绩效测量基准。它针对每个工作包和控制账户，计算并监测以下三个关键指标：

• 计划价值。 计划价值（PV）是为计划工作分配的经批准的预算，它是为完成某活动或工作分解结构 (WBS) 组成部分而准备的一份经批准的预算，不包括管理储备。应该把该预算分配至项目生命周期的各个阶段；在某个给定的时间点，计划价值代表着应该已经完成的工作。 PV的总和有时被称为绩效测量基准（PMB），项目的总计划价值又被称为完工预算（BAC）。
• 挣值。 挣值（EV）是对已完成工作的测量值，用该工作的批准预算来表示，是已完成工作的经批准的预算。 EV的计算应该与PMB相对应，且所得的EV值不得大于相应组件的PV总预算。EV 常用于计算项目的完成百分比，应该为每个 WBS 组件规定进展测量准则，用于考核正在实施的工作。项目经理既要监测 EV 的增量，以判断当前的状态，又要监测 EV 的累计值，以判断长期的绩效趋势。
• 实际成本。 实际成本（AC）是在给定时段内，执行某活动而实际发生的成本，是为完成与 EV相对应的工作而发生的总成本。 AC 的计算方法必须与 PV 和 EV 的计算方法保持一致（例如，都只计算直接小时数，都只计算直接成本，或都计算包含间接成本在内的全部成本）。 AC 没有上限，为实现 EV 所花费的任何成本都要计算进去。
  12.3
  计算进度和成本偏差，以及进度和成本绩效指数，以确定偏离目标的程度。

4.5
Earned value provides an integrated perspective on scope, schedule, and cost performance.
6.6
Schedule performance measurements such as schedule variance (SV) and schedule performance index (SPI) are used to assess the magnitude of variation to the original schedule baseline.
7.4
Earned value analysis compares the performance measurement baseline to the actual schedule and cost performance. EVM integrates the scope baseline with the cost baseline and schedule baseline to form the performance measurement baseline. EVM develops and monitors three key dimensions for each work package and control account:

• Planned value. Planned value (PV) is the authorized budget assigned to scheduled work. It is the authorized budget planned for the work to be accomplished for an activity or work breakdown structure (WBS) component, not including management reserve. This budget is allocated by phase over the life of the project, but at a given point in time, planned value defines the physical work that should have been accomplished. The total of the PV is sometimes referred to as the performance measurement baseline (PMB). The total planned value for the project is also known as budget at completion (BAC).
• Earned value. Earned value (EV) is a measure of work performed expressed in terms of the budget authorized for that work. It is the budget associated with the authorized work that has been completed. The EV being measured needs to be related to the PMB, and the EV measured cannot be greater than the authorized PV budget for a component. The EV is often used to calculate the percent complete of a project. Progress measurement criteria should be established for each WBS component to measure work in progress. Project managers monitor EV, both incrementally to determine current status and cumulatively to determine the longterm performance trends.
• Actual cost. Actual cost (AC) is the realized cost incurred for the work performed on an activity during a specific time period. It is the total cost incurred in accomplishing the work that the EV measured. The AC needs to correspond in definition to what was budgeted in the PV and measured in the EV (e.g., direct hours only, direct costs only, or all costs including indirect costs). The AC will have no upper limit; whatever is spent to achieve the EV will be measured.
  12.3
  Schedule and cost variances along with schedule and cost performance indexes are calculated to determine the degree of variance from target.

|14|影响图|11.4

11.4
影响图是不确定条件下决策制定的图形辅助工具。它将一个项目或项目中的一种情境表现为一系列实体、结果和影响，以及它们之间的关系和相互影响。如果因为存在单个项目风险或其他不确定性来源而使影响图中的某些要素不确定，就在影响图中以区间或概率分布的形式表示这些要素；然后，借助模拟技术（如蒙特卡洛分析）来分析哪些要素对重要结果具有最大的影响。影响图分析，可以得出类似于其他定量风险分析的结果，如 S 曲线图和龙卷风图。
11.4
Influence diagrams are graphical aids to decision making under uncertainty. An influence diagram represents a project or situation within the project as a set of entities, outcomes, and influences, together with the relationships and effects between them. Where an element in the influence diagram is uncertain as a result of the existence of individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty, this can be represented in the influence diagram using ranges or probability distributions. The influence diagram is then evaluated using a simulation technique, such as Monte Carlo analysis, to indicate which elements have the greatest influence on key outcomes. Outputs from an influence diagram are similar to other quantitative risk analysis methods, including S-curves and tornado diagrams.

|15|迭代燃尽图|6.6

6.6
这类图用于追踪迭代未完项中尚待完成的工作。它基于迭代规划（见 6.4.2.8 节）中确定的工作，分析与理想燃尽图的偏差。可使用预测趋势线来预测迭代结束时可能出现的偏差，以及在迭代期间应该采取的合理行动。在燃尽图中，先用对角线表示理想的燃尽情况，再每天画出实际剩余工作，最后基于剩余工作计算出趋势线以预测完成情况。图 6-24 是迭代燃尽图的一个例子。

6.6
This chart tracks the work that remains to be completed in the iteration backlog. It is used to analyze the variance with respect to an ideal burndown based on the work committed from iteration planning (see Section 6.4.2.8). A forecast trend line can be used to predict the likely variance at iteration completion and take appropriate actions during the course of the iteration. A diagonal line representing the ideal burndown and daily actual remaining work is then plotted. A trend line is then calculated to forecast completion
based on remaining work. Figure 6-24 is an example of an iteration burndown chart.

|16|自制和外购分析|12.1

12.1
自制或外购分析用于确定某项工作或可交付成果最好由项目团队自行完成，还是应该从外部采购。制定自制或外购决策时应考虑的因素包括；组织当前的资源配置及其技能和能力，对专业技术的需求，不愿承担永久雇用的义务，以及对独特技术专长的需求；还要评估与每个自制或外购决策相关的风险。
在自制或外购分析中，可以使用回收期、投资回报率（ROI）、内部报酬率 (IRR)、现金流贴现、净现值（NPV）、收益成本（BCA）或其他分析技术，来确定某种货物或服务是应该在项目内部自制，还是从外部购买。

12.1
A make-or-buy analysis is used to determine whether work or deliverables can best be accomplished by the project team or should be purchased from outside sources. Factors to consider in the make-or-buy decision include the organization’s current resource allocation and their skills and abilities, the need for specialized expertise, the desire to not expand permanent employment obligations, and the need for independent expertise. It also includes evaluating the risks involved with each make-or-buy decision.

|17|绩效审查|6.6 8.3 9.6 12.3

6.6
绩效审查是指根据进度基准，测量、对比和分析进度绩效，如实际开始和完成日期、已完成百分比，以及当前工作的剩余持续时间。
8.3
绩效审查针对实际结果，测量、比较和分析规划质量管理过程中定义的质量测量指标。
9.6
绩效审查是测量、比较和分析计划的资源使用和实际资源使用的不同。分析成本和进度工作绩效信息有助于指出可能影响资源使用的问题。
12.3
在项目进展过程中，项目团队可能会使用趋势分析，基于当前绩效信息来确定未来项目阶段所需的资源。趋势分析检查项目绩效随时间的变化情况，可用于确定绩效是在改善还是在恶化。

6.6
Performance reviews measure, compare, and analyze schedule performance against the schedule baseline such as actual start and finish dates, percent complete, and remaining duration for work in progress.
8.3
Performance reviews measure, compare, and analyze the quality metrics defined by the Plan Quality Management process against the actual results.
9.6
Performance reviews measure, compare, and analyze planned resource utilization to actual resource utilization. Cost and schedule work performance information can also be analyzed to help pinpoint issues that can influence resource utilization.
12.3
Performance reviews for contracts measure, compare, and analyze quality, resource, schedule, and cost performance against the agreement. This includes identifying work packages that are ahead or behind schedule, over or under budget, or have resource or quality issues.

|18|过程分析|8.2

8.2
过程分析可以识别过程改进机会，同时检查在过程期间遇到的问题、制约因素，以及非增值活动。

8.2
Process analysis identifies opportunities for process improvements. This analysis also examines problems, constraints, and non-value-added activities that occur during a process.

|19|建议书评价|12.2

12.2
对建议书进行评估，确定它们是否对包含在招标文件包中的招标文件、采购工作说明书、供方选择标准和其他文件，都做出了完整且充分的响应。
12.2
Proposals are evaluated to ensure they are complete and respond in full to the bid documents, procurement statement of work, source selection criteria, and any other documents that went out in the bid package.

|20|回归分析|4.7

4.7
该技术分析作用于项目结果的不同项目变量之间的相互关系，以提高未来项目的绩效。
4.8
This technique analyzes the interrelationships between different project variables that contributed to the project outcomes to improve performance on future projects.

|21|储备分析|6.4 7.2 7.3 7.4 11.7

6.4
储备分析用于确定项目所需的应急储备量和管理储备。在进行持续时间估算时，需考虑应急储备（有时称为“进度储备”），以应对进度方面的不确定性。应急储备是包含在进度基准中的一段持续时间，用来应对已经接受的已识别风险。应急储备与“已知 — 未知”风险相关，需要加以合理估算，用于完成未知的工作量。应急储备可取活动持续时间估算值的某一百分比或某一固定的时间段，亦可把应急储备从各个活动中剥离出来并汇总。随着项目信息越来越明确，可以动用、减少或取消应急储备，应该在项目进度文件中清楚地列出应急储备。也可以估算项目进度管理所需要的管理储备量。管理储备是为管理控制的目的而特别留出的项目预算，用来应对项目范围中不可预见的工作。管理储备用来应对会影响项目的“未知-未知”风险，它不包括在进度基准中，但属于项目总持续时间的一部分。依据合同条款，使用管理储备可能需要变更进度基准。
7.2
为应对成本的不确定性，成本估算中可以包括应急储备（有时称为“应急费用”）。应急储备是包含在成本基准内的一部分预算，用来应对已识别的风险；应急储备还通常是预算的一部分，用来应对那些会影响项目的“已知 — 未知”风险。例如，可以预知有些项目可交付成果需要返工，却不知道返工的工作量是多少。可以预留应急储备来应对这些未知数量的返工工作。小至某个具体活动，大到整个项目，任何层级都可有其应急储备。应急储备可取成本估算值的某一百分比、某个固定值，或者通过定量分析来确定；而随着项目信息越来越明确，可以动用、减少或取消应急储备。应该在成本文件中清楚地列出应急储备。应急储备是成本基准的一部分，也是项目整体资金需求的一部分。
7.3
可用于制定预算过程的数据分析技术包括（但不限于）可以建立项目管理储备的储备分析。管理储备是为了管理控制的目的而特别留出的项目预算，用来应对项目范围中不可预见的工作，目的是用来应对会影响项目的“未知 — 未知”风险。管理储备不包括在成本基准中，但属于项目总预算和资金需求的一部分。当动用管理储备资助不可预见的工作时，就要把动用的管理储备增加到成本基准中，从而导致成本基准变更。
7.4
在控制成本过程中，可以采用储备分析来监督项目中应急储备和管理储备的使用情况，从而判断是否还需要这些储备，或者是否需要增加额外的储备。随着项目工
作的进展，这些储备可能已按计划用于支付风险或其他应急情况的成本；反之，如果抓住机会节约了成本，节约下来的资金可能会增加到应急储备中，或作为盈利/利润从项目中剥离。如果已识别的风险没有发生，就可能要从项目预算中扣除未使用的应急储备，为其他项目或运营腾出资源。同时，在项目中开展进一步风险分析，可能会发现需要为项目预算申请额外的储备。
11.7
在整个项目执行期间，可能发生某些单个项目风险，对预算和进度应急储备产生正面或负面的影响。储备分析是指在项目的任一时点比较剩余应急储备与剩余风险量，从而确定剩余储备是否仍然合理。可以用各种图形（如燃尽图）来显示应急储备的消耗情况。

6.4
Reserve analysis is used to determine the amount of contingency and management reserve needed for the project. Duration estimates may include contingency reserves, sometimes referred to as schedule reserves, to account for schedule uncertainty. Contingency reserves are the estimated duration within the schedule baseline, which is allocated for identified risks that are accepted. Contingency reserves are associated with the known-unknowns, which may be estimated to account for this unknown amount of rework. The contingency reserve may be a percentage of the estimated activity duration or a fixed number of work periods. Contingency reserves may be separated from the individual activities and aggregated. As more precise information about the project becomes available, the contingency reserve may be used, reduced, or eliminated. Contingency should be clearly identified in the schedule documentation.
Estimates may also be produced for the amount of management reserve of schedule for the project. Management reserves are a specified amount of the project budget withheld for management control purposes and are reserved for unforeseen work that is within scope of the project. Management reserves are intended to address the unknown-unknowns that can affect a project. Management reserve is not included in the schedule baseline, but it is part of the overall project duration requirements. Depending on contract terms, use of management
reserves may require a change to the schedule baseline.
7.2
Cost estimates may include contingency reserves (sometimes called contingency allowances) to account for cost uncertainty. Contingency reserves are the budget within the cost baseline that is allocated for identified risks. Contingency reserves are often viewed as the part of the budget intended to address the knownunknowns that can affect a project. For example, rework for some project deliverables could be anticipated, while the amount of this rework is unknown. Contingency reserves may be estimated to account for this unknown
amount of rework. Contingency reserves can be provided at any level from the specific activity to the entire project. The contingency reserve may be a percentage of the estimated cost, a fixed number, or may be developed by using quantitative analysis methods.
As more precise information about the project becomes available, the contingency reserve may be used, reduced, or eliminated. Contingency should be clearly identified in cost documentation. Contingency reserves are part of the cost baseline and the overall funding requirements for the project.
7.3
A data analysis technique that can be used in the Determine Budget process includes but is not limited to reserve analysis, which can establish the management reserves for the project. Management reserves are an amount of the project budget withheld for management control purposes and are reserved for unforeseen work that is within scope of the project. Management reserves are intended to address the unknown unknowns that can affect a project. The management reserve is not included in the cost baseline but is part of the overall project budget and funding requirements. When an amount of management reserves is used to fund unforeseen work, the amount of management reserve used is added to the cost baseline, thus requiring an approved change to the cost baseline.
7.4
During cost control, reserve analysis is used to monitor the status of contingency and management reserves for the project to determine if these reserves are still needed or if additional reserves need to be requested. As work on the project progresses, these reserves may be used as planned to cover the cost of risk responses or other contingencies. Conversely, when opportunities are captured and resulting in cost savings, funds may be added to the contingency amount, or taken from the project as margin/profit.
If the identified risks do not occur, the unused contingency reserves may be removed from the project budget to free up resources for other projects or operations. Additional risk analysis during the project may reveal a need to request that additional reserves be added to the project budget.
11.7
Throughout execution of the project, some individual project risks may occur with positive or negative impacts on budget or schedule contingency reserves. Reserve analysis compares the amount of the contingency reserves remaining to the amount of risk remaining at any time in the project in order to determine if the remaining reserve is adequate. This may be communicated using various graphical representations, including a burndown chart.

|22|风险数据质量评估|11.3

11.3
风险数据是开展定性风险分析的基础。风险数据质量评估旨在评价关于单个项目风险的数据的准确性和可靠性。使用低质量的风险数据，可能导致定性风险分析对
项目来说基本没用。如果数据质量不可接受，就可能需要收集更好的数据。可以开展问卷调查，了解项目相关方对数据质量各方面的评价，包括数据的完整性、客观性、相关性和及时性，进而对风险数据的质量进行综合评估。可以计算这些方面的加权平均数，将其作为数据质量的总体分数。

11.3
Risk data quality assessment evaluates the degree to which the data about individual project risks is accurate and reliable as a basis for qualitative risk analysis. The use of low-quality risk data may lead to a qualitative risk analysis that is of little use to the project. If data quality is unacceptable, it may be necessary to gather better data. Risk data quality may be assessed via a questionnaire measuring the project’s stakeholder perceptions of various characteristics, which may include completeness, objectivity, relevancy, and timeliness. A weighted average of selected data quality characteristics can then be generated to give an overall quality score.

|23|风险概率和影响评估|11.3

11.3
风险概率评估考虑的是特定风险发生的可能性，而风险影响评估考虑的是风险对一项或多项项目目标的潜在影响，如进度、成本、质量或绩效。威胁将产生负面的影响，机会将产生正面的影响。要对每个已识别的单个项目风险进行概率和影响评估。风险评估可以采用访谈或会议的形式，参加者将依照他们对风险登记册中所记录的风险类型的熟悉程度而定。项目团队成员和项目外部资深人员应该参加访谈或会议。在访谈或会议期间，评估每个风险的概率水平及其对每项目标的影响级别。如果相关方对概率水平和影响级别的感知存在差异，则应对差异进行探讨。此外，还应记录相应的说明性细节，例如，确定概率水平或影响级别所依据的假设条件。应该采用风险管理计划中的概率和影响定义（表11-1），来评估风险的概率和影响。低概率和影响的风险将被列入风险登记册中的观察清单，以供未来监控。

11.3
Risk probability assessment considers the likelihood that a specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment considers the potential effect on one or more project objectives such as schedule, cost, quality, or performance. Impacts will be negative for threats and positive for opportunities. Probability and impact are assessed for each identified individual project risk. Risks can be assessed in interviews or meetings with participants selected for their familiarity with the types of risk recorded in the risk register. Project team members and knowledgeable persons external to the project are included. The level of probability for each risk and its impact on each objective are evaluated during the interview or meeting. Differences in the levels of probability and impact perceived by stakeholders are to be expected, and such differences should be explored. Explanatory detail, including assumptions justifying the levels assigned, are also recorded. Risk probabilities and impacts are assessed using the definitions given in the risk management plan (see Table 11-1). Risks with low probability and impact may be included within the risk register as part
of a watch list for future monitoring.

|24|根本原因分析||4.5 8.2 8.3 11.2 13.2 13.4

4.5
根本原因分析关注识别问题的主要原因，它可用于识别出现偏差的原因以及项目经理为达成项目目标应重点关注的领域。
8.2
根本原因分析是确定引起偏差、缺陷或风险的根本原因的一种分析技术。一项根本原因可能引起多项偏差、缺陷或风险。根本原因分析还可以作为一项技术，用于识别问题的根本原因并解决问题。消除所有根本原因可以杜绝问题再次发生。
8.3
根本原因分析用于识别缺陷成因。
11.2
根本原因分析（见 8.2.2.2 节）常用于发现导致问题的深层原因并制定预防措施。可以用问题陈述（如项目可能延误或超支）作为出发点，来探讨哪些威胁可能导致该问题，从而识别出相应的威胁。也可以用收益陈述（如提前交付或低于预算）作为出发点，来探讨哪些机会可能有利于实现该效益，从而识别出相应的机会。
13.2
开展根本原因分析，识别是什么根本原因导致了相关方对项目的某种支持水平，以便选择适当策略来改进其参与水平。
13.4
开展根本原因分析，确定相关方参与未达预期效果的根本原因。
4.5
Root cause analysis focuses on identifying the main reasons of a problem. It can be used to identify the reasons for a deviation and the areas the project manager should focus on in order to achieve the objectives of the project.
8.2
Root cause analysis is an analytical technique used to determine the basic underlying reason that causes a variance, defect, or risk. A root cause may underlie more than one variance, defect, or risk. It may also be used as a technique for identifying root causes of a problem and solving them. When all root causes for a problem are removed, the problem does not recur.
8.3
Root cause analysis is used to identify the source of defects.
11.2
Root cause analysis (see Section 8.2.2.2) is typically used to discover the underlying causes that lead to a problem, and develop preventive action. It can be used to identify threats by starting with a problem statement (for example, the project might be delayed or over budget) and exploring which threats might result in that problem occurring. The same technique can be used to find opportunities by starting with a benefit statement (for example, early delivery or under budget) and exploring which opportunities might result in that benefit being realized.
13.2
Root cause analysis identifies underlying reasons for the level of support of project stakeholders in order to select the appropriate strategy to improve their level of engagement.
13.4
A root cause analysis can be used to determine the basic underlying reason that stakeholder engagement is not having the planned effect.

|25|敏感性分析|11.4

11.4
敏感性分析有助于确定哪些单个项目风险或其他不确定性来源对项目结果具有最大的潜在影响。它在项目结果变异与定量风险分析模型中的要素变异之间建立联系。
敏感性分析的结果通常用龙卷风图来表示。在该图中，标出定量风险分析模型中的每项要素与其能影响的项目结果之间的关联系数。这些要素可包括单个项目风险、易变的项目活动，或具体的不明确性来源。每个要素按关联强度降序排列，形成典型的龙卷风形状。龙卷风图示例，见下图。

11.4
One typical display of sensitivity analysis is the tornado diagram, which presents the calculated correlation coefficient for each element of the quantitative risk analysis model that can influence the project outcome. This can include individual project risks, project activities with high degrees of variability, or specific sources of ambiguity. Items are ordered by descending strength of correlation, giving the typical tornado appearance. An example tornado diagram is shown in following.
Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty have the most potential impact on project outcomes. It correlates variations in project outcomes with variations in elements of the quantitative risk analysis model.

|26|模拟|6.5 11.4

6.5
模拟是把单个项目风险和不确定性的其他来源模型化的方法，以评估它们对项目目标的潜在影响。最常见的模拟技术是蒙特卡罗分析（见 11.4.2.5 节），它利用风险和其他不确定资源计算整个项目可能的进度结果。模拟包括基于多种不同的活动假设、制约因素、风险、问题或情景，使用概率分布和不确定性的其他表现形式（见 11.4.2.4 节），来计算出多种可能的工作包持续时间。图 6-18 显示了一个项目的概率分布，表明实现特定目标日期（即项目完成日期）的可能性。在这个例子中，项目按时或在目标日期，即 5 月 13 日之前完成的概率是 10%，而在 5 月 28 日之前完成的概率是 90%。
有关蒙特卡洛模拟如何用于进度模型的更多信息，请参见《进度计划实践标准》。

11.4
在定量风险分析中，使用模型来模拟单个项目风险和其他不确定性来源的综合影响，以评估它们对项目目标的潜在影响。模拟通常采用蒙特卡洛分析。对成本风险进行蒙特卡洛分析时，使用项目成本估算作为模拟的输入；对进度风险进行蒙特卡洛分析时，使用进度网络图和持续时间估算作为模拟的输入。开展综合定量成本-进度风险分析时，同时使用这两种输入。其输出就是定量风险分析模型。
用计算机软件数千次迭代运行定量风险分析模型。每次运行，都要随机选择输入值（如成本估算、持续时间估算或概率分支发生频率）。这些运行的输出构成了项目可能结果（如项目结束日期、项目完工成本）的区间。典型的输出包括：表示模拟得到特定结果的次数的直方图，或表示获得等于或小于特定数值的结果的累积概率分布曲线（S 曲线）。蒙特卡洛成本风险分析所得到的 S 曲线示例，见下图。

在定量进度风险分析中，还可以执行关键性分析，以确定风险模型的哪些活动对项目关键路径的影响最大。对风险模型中的每一项活动计算关键性指标，即：在全部模拟中，该活动出现在关键路径上的频率，通常以百分比表示。通过关键性分析，项目团队就能够重点针对那些对项目整体进度绩效存在最大潜在影响的活动，来规划风险应对措施。

6.5
Simulation models the combined effects of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty to evaluate their potential impact on achieving project objectives. The most common simulation technique is Monte Carlo analysis (see Section 11.4.2.5), in which risks and other sources of uncertainty are used to calculate possible schedule outcomes for the total project. Simulation involves calculating multiple work package durations with different sets of activity assumptions, constraints, risks, issues, or scenarios using probability distributions and other representations of uncertainty (see Section 11.4.2.4). Figure 6-18 shows a probability distribution for a project with the probability of achieving a certain target date (i.e., project finish date). In this example, there is a 10% probability that the project will finish on or before the target date of May 13, while there is a 90% probability of completing the project by May 28.
For more information on how Monte Carlo simulation is used for schedule models, see the Practice Standard for Scheduling.

11.4
Quantitative risk analysis uses a model that simulates the combined effects of individual project risks and other sources of uncertainty to evaluate their potential impact on achieving project objectives. Simulations are typically performed using a Monte Carlo analysis. When running a Monte Carlo analysis for cost risk, the simulation uses the project cost estimates. When running a Monte Carlo analysis for schedule risk, the schedule network diagram and duration estimates are used. An integrated quantitative cost-schedule risk analysis uses both inputs. The output is a quantitative risk analysis model.
Computer software is used to iterate the quantitative risk analysis model several thousand times. The input values (e.g., cost estimates, duration estimates, or occurrence of probabilistic branches) are chosen at random for each iteration. Outputs represent the range of possible outcomes for the project (e.g., project end date, project cost at completion). Typical outputs include a histogram presenting the number of iterations where a particular outcome resulted from the simulation, or a cumulative probability distribution (S-curve) representing the probability of achieving any particular outcome or less. An example S-curve from a Monte Carlo cost risk analysis is shown in Figure 11-13.

For a quantitative schedule risk analysis, it is also possible to conduct a criticality analysis that determines which elements of the risk model have the greatest effect on the project critical path. A criticality index is calculated for each element in the risk model, which gives the frequency with which that element appears on the critical path during the simulation, usually expressed as a percentage. The output from a criticality analysis allows the project team to focus risk response planning efforts on those activities with the highest potential effect on the overall schedule performance of the project.

|27|相关方分析|11.1 13.1 13.4

11.1
可用于本过程的数据分析技术包括（但不限于）相关方分析（见 13.1.2.3 节）。可通过相关方分析确定项目相关方的风险偏好。
13.1
相关方分析会产生相关方清单和关于相关方的各种信息，例如，在组织内的位置、在项目中的角色、与项目的利害关系、期望、态度（对项目的支持程度），以及对项目信息的兴趣。相关方的利害关系可包括（但不限于）以下各条的组合：

• 兴趣。 个人或群体会受与项目有关的决策或成果的影响。
• 权利（合法权利或道德权利）。 国家的法律框架可能已就相关方的合法权利做出规定，如职业健康和安全。道德权利可能涉及保护历史遗迹或环境的可持续性。
• 所有权。 人员或群体对资产或财产拥有的法定所有权。
• 知识。 专业知识有助于更有效地达成项目目标和组织成果，或有助于了解组织的权力结构，从而有益于项目。
• 贡献。 提供资金或其他资源，包括人力资源，或者以无形方式为项目提供支持，例如，宣传项目目标，或在项目与组织权力结构及政治之间扮演缓冲角色。

13.4
开展相关方分析，确定相关方群体和个人在项目任何特定时间的状态。

11.1
Data analysis techniques that can be used for this process includes but are not limited to a stakeholder analysis (Section 13.1.2.3) to determine the risk appetite of project stakeholders.
13.1
Stakeholder analysis results in a list of stakeholders and relevant information such as
their positions in the organization, roles on the project, “stakes,” expectations, attitudes (their levels of support for the project), and their interest in information about the project. Stakeholders’ stakes can include but are not limited to a combination of:

• Interest. A person or group can be affected by a decision related to the project or its outcomes.
• Rights (legal or moral rights). Legal rights, such as occupational health and safety, may be defined in the legislation framework of a country. Moral rights may involve concepts of protection of historical sites or environmental sustainability.
• Ownership. A person or group has a legal title to an asset or a property.
• Knowledge. Specialist knowledge, which can benefit the project through more effective delivery of project objectives, organizational outcomes, or knowledge of the power structures of the organization.
• Contribution. Provision of funds or other resources, including human resources, or providing support for the project in more intangible ways, such as advocacy in the form of promoting the objectives of the project or acting as a buffer between the project and the power structures of the organization and its politics.

13.4
The stakeholder analysis helps to determine the position of stakeholder groups and individuals at any particular time in the project.

|28|SWOT分析|11.2

11.2
这是对项目的优势、劣势、机会和威胁 (SWOT) 进行逐个检查。在识别风险时，它会将内部产生的风险包含在内，从而拓宽识别风险的范围。首先，关注项目、组织或一般业务领域，识别出组织的优势和劣势；然后，找出组织优势可能为项目带来的机会，组织劣势可能造成的威胁。还可以分析组织优势能在多大程度上克服威胁，组织劣势是否会妨碍机会的产生。

11.2
This technique examines the project from each of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) perspectives. For risk identification, it is used to increase the breadth of identified risks by including internally generated risks. The technique starts with the identification of strengths and weaknesses of the organization, focusing on either the project, organization, or the business area in general. SWOT analysis then identifies any opportunities for the project that may arise from strengths, and any threats resulting from weaknesses. The analysis also examines the degree to which organizational strengths may offset threats and determines if weaknesses might hinder opportunities.

|29|技术绩效分析|11.7

开展技术绩效分析，把项目执行期间所取得的技术成果与取得相关技术成果的计划进行比较。它要求定义关于技术绩效的客观的、量化的测量指标，以便据此比较实际结果与计划要求。技术绩效测量指标可能包括：重量、处理时间、缺陷数量、储存容量等。实际结果偏离计划的程度可以代表威胁或机会的潜在影响。
Technical performance analysis compares technical accomplishments during project execution to the schedule of technical achievement. It requires the definition of objective, quantifiable measures of technical performance, which can be used to compare actual results against targets. Such technical performance measures may include weight, transaction times, number of delivered defects, storage capacity, etc. Deviation can indicate the potential impact of threats or opportunities.

|30|趋势分析|4.5，4.7，5.6，6.6，7.4，9.6，12.3

4.5
趋势分析根据以往结果预测未来绩效，它可以预测项目的进度延误，提前让项目经理意识到，按照既定趋势发展，后期进度可能出现的问题。应该在足够早的项目时间进行趋势分析，使项目团队有时间分析和纠正任何异常。可以根据趋势分析的结果，提出必要的预防措施建议。
4.7
趋势分析可用于确认组织所用模式的有效性，并且为了未来项目而进行相应的模式调整。
5.6
趋势分析旨在审查项目绩效随时间的变化情况，以判断绩效是正在改善还是正在恶化。
6.6
趋势分析检查项目绩效随时间的变化情况，以确定绩效是在改善还是在恶化。图形分析技术有助于理解截至目前的绩效，并与未来的绩效目标（表示为完工日期）进行对比。
7.4
趋势分析旨在审查项目绩效随时间的变化情况，以判断绩效是正在改善还是正在恶化。图形分析技术有助于了解截至目前的绩效情况，并把发展趋势与未来的绩效目标进行比较，如 BAC 与EAC、预测完工日期与计划完工日期的比较。趋势分析技术包括（但不限于）：

• 图表。
  在挣值分析中，对计划价值、挣值和实际成本这三个参数，既可以分阶段（通常以周或月为单位）进行监督和报告，也可以针对累计值进行监督和报告。图 7-12 以 S 曲线展示了某个项目的 EV 数据，该项目预算超支且进度落后。
  

• 预测。
  随着项目进展，项目团队可根据项目绩效，对完工估算（EAC）进行预测，预测的结
  果可能与完工预算（BAC）存在差异。如果 BAC 已明显不再可行，则项目经理应考虑对EAC进行预测。预测EAC是根据当前掌握的绩效信息和其他知识，预计项目未来的情况和事件。预测要根据项目执行过程中所提供的工作绩效数据（见 4.3.3.2 节）来产生、更新和重新发布。工作绩效信息包含项目过去的绩效，以及可能在未来对项目产生影响的任何信息。在计算 EAC 时，通常用已完成工作的实际成本，加上剩余工作的完工尚需估算（ETC）。项目团队要根据已有的经验，考虑实施 ETC 工作可能遇到的各种情况。把挣值分析与手工预测 EAC 方法联合起来使用，效果会更佳。由项目经理和项目团队手工进行的自下而上汇总方法，就是一种最普通的 EAC 预测方法。
  项目经理所进行的自下而上的 EAC 估算，就是以已完成工作的实际成本为基础，并根据已积累的经验来为剩余项目工作编制一个新估算。公式： EAC = AC + 自下而上的 ETC。可以很方便地把项目经理手工估算的 EAC 与计算得出的一系列 EAC 作比较，这些计算得出的EAC 代表了不同的风险情景。在计算 EAC 值时，经常会使用累计 CPI 和累计 SPI 值。尽管可以用许多方法来计算基于 EVM 数据的 EAC 值，但下面只介绍最常用的三种方法：

  • 假设将按预算单价完成 ETC 工作。 这种方法承认以实际成本表示的累计实际项目绩效（不论好坏），并预计未来的全部 ETC 工作都将按预算单价完成。如果目前的实际绩效不好，则只有在进行项目风险分析并取得有力证据后，才能做出“未来绩效将会改进”的假设。公式： EAC = AC +（BAC – EV）。
  • 假设以当前 CPI 完成 ETC 工作。 这种方法假设项目将按截至目前的情况继续进行，即 ETC工作将按项目截至目前的累计成本绩效指数（CPI）实施。 公式： EAC = BAC/CPI。
  • 假设 SPI 与 CPI 将同时影响 ETC 工作。 在这种预测中，需要计算一个由成本绩效指数与进度绩效指数综合决定的效率指标，并假设 ETC 工作将按该效率指标完成。如果项目进度对 ETC 有重要影响，这种方法最有效。使用这种方法时，还可以根据项目经理的判断，分别给 CPI 和 SPI 赋予不同的权重，如 80/20、 50/50 或其他比率。公式： EAC =AC +［（BAC – EV）/（CPI x SPI）］。

9.6
在项目进展过程中，项目团队可能会使用趋势分析，基于当前绩效信息来确定未来项目阶段所需的资源。趋势分析检查项目绩效随时间的变化情况，可用于确定绩效是在改善还是在恶化。
12.3
趋势分析可用于编制关于成本绩效的完工估算 (EAC)，以确定绩效是正在改善还是恶化。关于完工估算方法的详细信息。

4.5
Trend analysis is used to forecast future performance based on past results. It looks ahead in the project for expected slippages and warns the project manager ahead of time that there may be problems later in the schedule if established trends persist. This information is made available early enough in the project timeline to give the project team time to analyze and correct any anomalies. The results of trend analysis can be used to recommend preventive actions if necessary.
4.7
Trend analysis can be used to validate the models used in the organization and to implement adjustments for future projects.
5.6
Trend analysis examines project performance over time to determine if performance is improving or deteriorating.
6.6
Trend analysis examines project performance over time to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating. Graphical analysis techniques are valuable for understanding performance to date and for comparing to future performance goals in the form of completion dates.
7.4
rend analysis examines project performance over time to determine if performance is improving or deteriorating. Graphical analysis techniques are valuable for understanding performance to date and for comparison to future performance goals in the form of BAC versus estimate at completion (EAC) and completion dates. Examples of the trend analysis techniques include but are not limited to:

• Charts. In earned value analysis, three parameters of planned value, earned value, and actual cost can be monitored and reported on both a period-by-period basis (typically weekly or monthly) and on a cumulative basis. Figure 7-12 uses S-curves to display EV data for a project that is performing over budget and behind the schedule.
  

• Forecasting. As the project progresses, the project team may develop a forecast for the estimate at completion (EAC) that may differ from the budget at completion (BAC) based on the project performance. If it becomes obvious that the BAC is no longer viable, the project manager should consider the forecasted EAC. Forecasting the EAC involves making projections of conditions and events in the project’s future based on current performance information and other knowledge available at the time of the forecast. Forecasts are generated, updated, and reissued based on work performance data (Section 4.3.3.2) that is provided as the project is
  executed. The work performance information covers the project’s past performance and any information that could impact the project in the future.
  EACs are typically based on the actual costs incurred for work completed, plus an estimate to complete (ETC) the remaining work. It is incumbent on the project team to predict what it may encounter to perform the ETC, based on its experience to date. Earned value analysis works well in conjunction with manual forecasts of the required EAC costs. The most common EAC forecasting approach is a manual, bottom-up summation by the project manager and project team.
  The project manager’s bottom-up EAC method builds upon the actual costs and experience incurred for the work completed, and requires a new estimate to complete the remaining project work. Equation: EAC = AC + Bottom-up ETC.
  The project manager’s manual EAC is quickly compared with a range of calculated EACs representing various risk scenarios. When calculating EAC values, the cumulative CPI and SPI values are typically used. While EVM data quickly provide many statistical EACs, only three of the more common methods are described as follows:
  EAC forecast for ETC work performed at the budgeted rate. This EAC method accepts the actual project performance to date (whether favorable or unfavorable) as represented by the actual costs, and predicts that all future ETC work will be accomplished at the budgeted rate. When actual performance is unfavorable, the assumption that future performance will improve should be accepted only when supported by project risk analysis. Equation: EAC = AC + (BAC – EV).
  EAC forecast for ETC work performed at the present CPI. This method assumes that what the project has experienced to date can be expected to continue in the future. The ETC work is assumed to be performed at the same cumulative cost performance index (CPI) as that incurred by the project to date. Equation: EAC = BAC / CPI.
  EAC forecast for ETC work considering both SPI and CPI factors. In this forecast, the ETC work will be performed at an efficiency rate that considers both the cost and schedule performance indices. This method is most useful when the project schedule is a factor impacting the ETC effort. Variations of this method weight the CPI and SPI at different values (e.g., 80/20, 50/50, or some other ratio) according to the project manager’s judgment. Equation: EAC = AC + [(BAC – EV) / (CPI × SPI)].
  9.6
  As the project progresses, the project team may use trend analysis, based on current performance information, to determine the resources needed at upcoming stages of the project.
  Trend analysis examines project performance over time and can be used to determine whether performance is improving or deteriorating.
  12.3
  Trend analysis can develop a forecast estimate at completion (EAC) for cost performance to see if performance is improving or deteriorating. See 7.4.2.2 for more detail on EAC methods.

|31|偏差分析|4.5，4.7，5.6，6.6，7.4

4.5
偏差分析审查目标绩效与实际绩效之间的差异（或偏差），可涉及持续时间估算、成本估算、资源使用、资源费率、技术绩效和其他测量指标。
可以在每个知识领域，针对特定变量，开展偏差分析。在监控项目工作过程中，通过偏差分析对成本、时间、技术和资源偏差进行综合分析，以了解项目的总体偏差情况。这样就便于采取合适的预防或纠正措施。
4.7
偏差分析可通过比较计划目标与最终结果来改进组织的测量指标。
5.6
偏差分析用于将基准与实际结果进行比较，以确定偏差是否处于临界值区间内或是否有必要采取纠正或预防措施。
6.6
偏差分析关注实际开始和完成日期与计划的偏离，实际持续时间与计划的差异，以及浮动时间的偏差。它包括确定偏离进度基准（见 6.5.3.1 节）的原因与程度，评估这些偏差对未来工作的影响，以及确定是否需要采取纠正或预防措施。例如，非关键路径上的某个活动发生较长时间的延误，可能不会对整体项目进度产生影响；而某个关键或次关键活动的稍许延误，却可能需要立即采取行动。
7.4
偏差分析用以解释成本偏差（CV = EV – AC）、进度偏差（SV = EV – PV）和完工偏差（VAC = BAC – EAC）的原因、影响和纠正措施。成本和进度偏差是最需要分析的两种偏差。对于不使用正规挣值分析的项目，可开展类似的偏差分析，通过比较计划成本和实际成本，来识别成本基准与实际项目绩效之间的差异；然后可以实施进一步的分析，以判定偏离进度基准的原因和程度，并决定是否需要采取纠正或预防措施。可通过成本绩效测量来评价偏离原始成本基准的程度。项目成本控制的重要工作包括：判定偏离成本基准（见 7.3.3.1 节）的原因和程度，并决定是否需要采取纠正或预防措施。随着项目工作的逐步完成，偏差的可接受范围（常用百分比表示）将逐步缩小。偏差分析包括（但不限于）：

• 进度偏差。 进度偏差（SV）是测量进度绩效的一种指标，表示为挣值与计划价值之差。它是指在某个给定的时点，项目提前或落后的进度，它是测量项目进度绩效的一种指标，等于挣值（EV）减去计划价值（PV）。 EVA 进度偏差是一种有用的指标，可表明项目进度是落后还是提前于进度基准。当项目完工时，全部的计划价值都将实现（即成为挣值），所以 EVA 进度偏差最终将等于零。最好把进度偏差与关键路径法 (CPM) 和风险管理一起使用。公式： SV = EV – PV。
• 成本偏差。 成本偏差（CV）是在某个给定时点的预算亏空或盈余量，表示为挣值与实际成本之差。它是测量项目成本绩效的一种指标，等于挣值（EV）减去实际成本（AC）。项目结束时的成本偏差，就是完工预算（BAC）与实际成本之间的差值。由于成本偏差指明了实际绩效与成本支出之间的关系，所以非常重要。负的 CV 一般都是不可挽回的。公式： CV = EV – AC。
• 进度绩效指数。 进度绩效指数（SPI）是测量进度效率的一种指标，表示为挣值与计划价值之比，反映了项目团队完成工作的效率。有时与成本绩效指数（CPI）一起使用，以预测项目的最终完工估算。当 SPI 小于 1.0 时，说明已完成的工作量未达到计划要求；当 SPI 大于1.0 时，则说明已完成的工作量超过计划。由于 SPI 测量的是项目的总工作量，所以还需要对关键路径上的绩效进行单独分析，以确认项目是否将比计划完成日期提前或推迟完工。 SPI等于 EV 与 PV 的比值。公式： SPI = EV/PV。
• 成本绩效指数。 成本绩效指数（CPI）是测量预算资源的成本效率的一种指标，表示为挣值与实际成本之比。它是最关键的 EVA 指标，用来测量已完成工作的成本效率。当 CPI 小于 1.0时，说明已完成工作的成本超支；当 CPI 大于 1.0 时，则说明到目前为止成本有结余。 CPI 等
  于 EV 与 AC 的比值。公式： CPI = EV/AC。

4.5
Variance analysis reviews the differences (or variance) between planned and actual performance. This can include duration estimates, cost estimates, resources utilization, resources rates, technical performance, and other metrics.
Variance analysis may be conducted in each Knowledge Area based on its particular variables. In Monitor and
Control Project Work, the variance analysis reviews the variances from an integrated perspective considering
cost, time, technical, and resource variances in relation to each other to get an overall view of variance on the project. This allows for the appropriate preventive or corrective actions to be initiated.
4.7
Variance analysis can be used to improve the metrics of the organization by comparing what was initially planned and the end result.
5.6
Variance analysis is used to compare the baseline to the actual results and determine if the variance is within the threshold amount or if corrective or preventive action is appropriate.
6.6
Variance analysis looks at variances in planned versus actual start and finish dates, planned
versus actual durations, and variances in float. Part of variance analysis is determining the cause and degree of variance relative to the schedule baseline (see Section 6.5.3.1), estimating the implications of those variances for future work to completion, and deciding whether corrective or preventive action is required. For example, a major delay on any activity not on the critical path may have little effect on the overall project schedule, while a much shorter delay on a critical or near-critical activity may require immediate action.
7.4
Variance analysis, as used in EVM, is the explanation (cause, impact, and corrective actions) for cost (CV = EV – AC), schedule (SV = EV – PV), and variance at completion (VAC = BAC – EAC) variances. Cost and schedule variances are the most frequently analyzed measurements. For projects not using formal earned value analysis, similar variance analyses can be performed by comparing planned cost against actual cost to identify variances between the cost baseline and actual project performance. Further analysis can be performed to determine the cause and degree of variance relative to the schedule baseline and any corrective or preventive actions needed. Cost performance measurements are used to assess the magnitude of variation to the original cost baseline. An important aspect of project cost control includes etermining the cause and degree of variance relative to the cost baseline (see Section 7.3.3.1) and deciding whether corrective or preventive action is required. The percentage range of acceptable variances will tend to decrease as more work is accomplished. Examples of variance analysis include but are not limited to:
Schedule variance. Schedule variance (SV) is a measure of schedule performance expressed as the difference between the earned value and the planned value. It is the amount by which the project is ahead or behind the planned delivery date, at a given point in time. It is a measure of schedule performance on a project. It is equal to the earned value (EV) minus the planned value (PV). The EVA schedule variance is a useful metric in that it can indicate when a project is falling behind or is ahead of its baseline schedule. The EVA schedule variance will ultimately equal zero when the project is completed because all of the planned values will have been earned. Schedule variance is best used in conjunction with critical path method (CPM) scheduling and risk management. Equation: SV = EV – PV.
Cost variance. Cost variance (CV) is the amount of budget deficit or surplus at a given point in time*, expressed as the difference between earned value and the actual cost. It is a measure of cost performance on a project. It is equal to the earned value (EV) minus the actual cost (AC). The cost variance at the end of the project will be the difference between the budget at completion (BAC) and the actual amount spent. The CV is particularly critical because it indicates the relationship of physical performance to the costs spent. Negative CV is often difficult for the project to recover. Equation: CV = EV – AC.
Schedule performance index。 The schedule performance index (SPI) is a measure of schedule efficiency expressed as the ratio of earned value to planned value. It measures how efficiently the project team is accomplishing the work. It is sometimes used in conjunction with the cost performance index (CPI) to forecast the final project completion estimates. An SPI value less than 1.0 indicates less work was completed than was planned. An SPI greater than 1.0 indicates that more work was completed than was planned. Since the SPI measures all project work, the performance on the critical path also needs to be analyzed to determine whether the project will finish ahead of or behind its planned finish date. The SPI is equal to the ratio of the EV to the PV. Equation: SPI = EV/PV.
Cost performance index. The cost performance index (CPI) is a measure of the cost efficiency of budgeted resources, expressed as a ratio of earned value to actual cost. It is considered the most critical EVA metric and measures the cost efficiency for the work completed. A CPI value of less than 1.0 indicates a cost overrun for work completed. A CPI value greater than 1.0 indicates a cost underrun of performance to date. The CPI is equal to the ratio of the EV to the AC. Equation: CPI = EV/AC.

|32|假设情景分析|6.5， 6.6

6.5
假设情景分析是对各种情景进行评估，预测它们对项目目标的影响（积极或消极的）。假设情景分析就是对“如果情景 X 出现，情况会怎样？”这样的问题进行分析，即基于已有的进度计划，考虑各种各样的情景。例如，推迟某主要部件的交货日期，延长某设计工作的时间，或加入外部因素（如罢工或许可证申请流程变化等）。可以根据假设情景分析的结果，评估项目进度计划在不同条件下的可行性，以及为应对意外情况的影响而编制进度储备和应对计划。
6.6
假设情景分析基于项目风险管理过程的输出，对各种不同的情景进行评估，促使进度模型符合项目管理计划和批准的基准。

6.5
What-if scenario analysis is the process of evaluating scenarios in order to predict their effect, positive or negative, on project objectives. This is an analysis of the question, “What if the situation represented by scenario X happens?” A schedule network analysis is performed using the schedule to compute the different scenarios, such as delaying a major component delivery, extending specific engineering durations, or introducing external factors, such as a strike or a change in the permit process. The outcome of the what-if scenario analysis can be used to assess the feasibility of the project schedule under different conditions, and in preparing schedule reserves and response plans to address the impact of unexpected situations.
6.6
What-if scenario analysis is used to assess the various scenarios guided by the output from the Project Risk Management processes to bring the schedule model into alignment with the project management plan and approved baseline.

|33|概率和影响矩阵|11.3

11.3
组织可在项目开始前确定优先级排序规则，并将其纳入组织过程资产，或者也可为具体项目量身定制优先级排序规则。在常见的概率和影响矩阵中，会同时列出机会和威胁；以正面影响定义机会，以负面影响定义威胁。概率和影响可以用描述性术语（如很高、高、中、低和很低）或数值来表达。如果使用数值，就可以把两个数值相乘，得出每个风险的概率 - 影响分值，以便据此在每个优先级组别之内排列单个风险相对优先级。下图是概率和影响矩阵的示例，其中也有数值风险评分的可能方法。

概率和影响矩阵是把每个风险发生的概率和一旦发生对项目目标的影响映射起来的表格。此矩阵对概率和影响进行组合，以便于把单个项目风险划分成不同的优先级组别（见图 11-5）。基于风险的概率和影响，对风险进行优先级排序，以便未来进一步分析并制定应对措施。采用风险管理计划中规定的风险概率和影响定义，逐一对单个项目风险的发生概率及其对一项或多项项目目标的影响（若发生）进行评估。然后，基于所得到的概率和影响的组合，使用概率和影响矩阵，来为单个项目风险分配优先级别。
组织可针对每个项目目标（如成本、时间和范围）制定单独的概率和影响矩阵，并用它们来评估风险针对每个目标的优先级别。组织还可以用不同的方法为每个风险确定一个总体优先级别。即可综合针对不同目标的评估结果，也可采用最高优先级别（无论针对哪个目标），作为风险的总体优先级别。

11.3
Prioritization rules may be specified by the organization in advance of the project and be included in organizational process assets, or they may be tailored to the specific project. Opportunities and threats are represented in a common probability and impact matrix using positive definitions of impact for opportunities and negative impact definitions for threats. Descriptive terms (such as very high, high, medium, low, and very low) or numeric values can be used for probability and impact. Where numeric values are used, these can be multiplied to give a probability-impact score for each risk, which allows the relative priority of individual risks to be evaluated within each priority level. An example probability and impact matrix is presented in Figure 11-5, which also shows a possible numeric risk scoring scheme.
A probability and impact matrix is a grid for mapping the probability of each risk occurrence and its impact on project objectives if that risk occurs. This matrix specifies combinations of probability and impact that allow individual project risks to be divided into priority groups (see Figure 11-5). Risks can be prioritized for further analysis and planning of risk responses based on their probability and impacts. The probability of occurrence for each individual project risk is assessed as well as its impact on one or more project objectives if it does occur, using definitions of probability and impact for the project as specified in the risk management plan. Individual project risks are assigned to a priority level based on the combination of their assessed probability and impact, using a probability and impact matrix.
An organization can assess a risk separately for each objective (e.g., cost, time, and scope) by having a separate probability and impact matrix for each. Alternatively, it may develop ways to determine one overall priority level for each risk, either by combining assessments for different objectives, or by taking the highest priority level regardless of which objective is affected.

|34|相关方参与度评估矩阵|10.1 10.3 13.2 13.4

10.1
适用于本过程的数据表现技术包括（但不限于）相关方参与度评估矩阵。见 13.2.2.5 节。如图 13-6所示，相关方参与度评估矩阵显示了个体相关方当前和期望参与度之间的差距。在本过程中，可进一步分析该评估矩阵，以便为填补参与度差距而识别额外的沟通需求（除常规报告以外的）。
10.3
适用的数据表现技术包括（但不限于）相关方参与度评估矩阵（见 13.2.2.5 节）。它可以提供与沟通活动效果有关的信息。应该检查相关方的期望与当前参与度的变化情况，并对沟通进行必要调整。
13.2
相关方参与度评估矩阵用于将相关方当前参与水平与期望参与水平进行比较。对相关方参与水平进行分类的方式之一，如下图所示。相关方参与水平可分为如下：

• 不了解型。 不知道项目及其潜在影响。
• 抵制型。 知道项目及其潜在影响，但抵制项目工作或成果可能引发的任何变更。此类相关方不会支持项目工作或项目成果。
• 中立型。 了解项目，但既不支持，也不反对。
• 支持型。 了解项目及其潜在影响，并且会支持项目工作及其成果。
• 领导型。 了解项目及其潜在影响，而且积极参与以确保项目取得成功。
  在下图中， C 代表每个相关方的当前参与水平，而 D 是项目团队评估出来的、为确保项目成功所必不可少的参与水平（期望的）。应根据每个相关方的当前与期望参与水平的差距，开展必要的沟通，有效引导相关方参与项目。弥合当前与期望参与水平的差距是监督相关方参与中的一项基本工作。
  

13.4
适用于本过程的数据表现技术包括（但不限于）相关方参与度评估矩阵。见 13.2.2.3 节。使用相关方参与度评估矩阵，来跟踪每个相关方参与水平的变化，对相关方参与加以监督。

10.1
A data representation technique that can be used for this process includes but is not limited to a stakeholder engagement assessment matrix. Described in Section 13.2.2.5. The stakeholder engagement assessment matrix, shown in Figure 13-6, displays gaps between current and desired engagement levels of individual stakeholders, it can be further analyzed in this process to identify additional communication requirements (beyond the regular reports) as a method to close any engagement level gaps.
10.3
A data representation technique that can be used includes but is not limited to the stakeholder engagement assessment matrix (Section 13.2.2.5), which can provide information about the effectiveness of the communications
activities. This is achieved by reviewing changes between desired and current engagement and adjusting communications as necessary.
13.2
u Stakeholder engagement assessment matrix. A stakeholder engagement assessment matrix supports comparison between the current engagement levels of stakeholders and the desired engagement levels required
for successful project delivery. One way to classify the engagement level of stakeholders is shown in Figure 13-6. The engagement level of stakeholders can be classified as follows:

• Unaware. Unaware of the project and potential impacts.
• Resistant. Aware of the project and potential impacts but resistant to any changes that may occur as a result of the work or outcomes of the project. These stakeholders will be unsupportive of the work or outcomes of the project.
• Neutral. Aware of the project, but neither supportive nor unsupportive.
• Supportive. Aware of the project and potential impacts and supportive of the work and its outcomes.
• Leading. Aware of the project and potential impacts and actively engaged in ensuring that the project is a success.
  In Figure 13-6, C represents the current engagement level of each stakeholder and D indicates the level that the project team has assessed as essential to ensure project success (desired). The gap between current and desired for each stakeholder will direct the level of communications necessary to effectively engage the stakeholder. The closing of this gap between current and desired is an essential element of monitoring stakeholder engagement.
  

13.4
A data representation technique used in this process includes but is not limited to a stakeholder engagement assessment matrix. Described in Section 13.2.2.3. The stakeholder engagement assessment matrix monitors stakeholder engagement through tracking changes in level of engagement for each stakeholder.

|35|相关方映射分析/表现|13.1

13.1
适用于本过程的数据表现技术包括（但不限于）相关方映射分析/表现。相关方映射分析和表现是一种利用不同方法对相关方进行分类的方法。对相关方进行分类有助于团队与已识别的项目相关方建立关系。常见的分类方法包括：

• 权力利益方格、权力影响方格，或作用影响方格。 基于相关方的职权级别（权力）、对项目成果的关心程度（利益）、对项目成果的影响能力（影响），或改变项目计划或执行的能力，每一种方格都可用于对相关方进行分类。对于小型项目、相关方与项目的关系很简单的项目，
  或相关方之间的关系很简单的项目，这些分类模型非常实用。
• 相关方立方体。 这是上述方格模型的改良形式。本立方体把上述方格中的要素组合成三维模型，项目经理和团队可据此分析相关方并引导相关方参与项目。作为一个多维模型，它将相关方视为一个多维实体，更好地加以分析，从而有助于沟通策略的制定。
• 凸显模型。 通过评估相关方的权力（职权级别或对项目成果的影响能力）、紧迫性（因时间约束或相关方对项目成果有重大利益诉求而导致需立即加以关注）和合法性（参与的适当性），对相关方进行分类。在凸显模型中，也可以用邻近性取代合法性，以便考察相关方参与项目工作的程度。这种凸显模型适用于复杂的相关方大型社区，或在相关方社区内部存在复杂的关系网络。凸显模型可用于确定已识别相关方的相对重要性。
• 影响方向。 可以根据相关方对项目工作或项目团队本身的影响方向，对相关方进行分类。可以把相关方分类为：
  • 向上（执行组织或客户组织、发起人和指导委员会的高级高级管理层）；
  • 向下（临时贡献知识或技能的团队或专家）；
  • 向外（项目团队外的相关方群体及其代表，如供应商、政府部门、公众、最终用户和监管部门）；或
  • 横向（项目经理的同级人员，如其他项目经理或中层管理人员，他们与项目经理竞争稀缺项目资源或者合作共享资源或信息）。
• 优先级排序。 如果项目有大量相关方、相关方社区的成员频繁变化，相关方和项目团队之间或相关方社区内部的关系复杂，可能有必要对相关方进行优先级排序。

13.1
A data representation technique that may be used in this process includes but is not limited to stakeholder mapping/ representation. Stakeholder mapping and representation is a method of categorizing stakeholders using various
methods. Categorizing stakeholders assists the team in building relationships with the identified project stakeholders. Common methods include:

• Power/interest grid, power/influence grid, or impact/influence grid. Each of these techniques supports a grouping of stakeholders according to their level of authority (power), level of concern about the project’s
  outcomes (interest), ability to influence the outcomes of the project (influence), or ability to cause changes to the project’s planning or execution. These classification models are useful for small projects or for projects with simple relationships between stakeholders and the project, or within the stakeholder community itself.

• uu Stakeholder cube. This is a refinement of the grid models previously mentioned. This model combines the grid elements into a three-dimensional model that can be useful to project managers and teams in identifying
  and engaging their stakeholder community. It provides a model with multiple dimensions that improves the depiction of the stakeholder community as a multidimensional entity and assists with the development of communication strategies.

• Salience model. Describes classes of stakeholders based on assessments of their power (level of authority or ability to influence the outcomes of the project), urgency (need for immediate attention, either time-constrained or relating to the stakeholders’ high stake in the outcome), and legitimacy (their involvement is appropriate). There is an adaptation of the salience model that substitutes proximity for legitimacy (applying to the team and measuring their level of involvement with the work of the project). The salience model is useful for large complex communities of stakeholders or where there are complex networks of relationships within the community. It is also useful in determining the relative importance of the identified stakeholders.

• Directions of influence. Classifies stakeholders according to their influence on the work of the project or the project team itself. Stakeholders can be classified in the following ways:

  • Upward (senior management of the performing organization or customer organization, sponsor, and steering committee),
  • Downward (the team or specialists contributing knowledge or skills in a temporary capacity),
  • Outward (stakeholder groups and their representatives outside the project team, such as suppliers, government departments, the public, end-users, and regulators), or
  • Sideward (the peers of the project manager, such as other project managers or middle managers who are in competition for scarce project resources or who collaborate with the project manager in sharing resources or information).

• Prioritization. Prioritizing stakeholders may be necessary for projects with a large number of stakeholders, where the membership of the stakeholder community is changing frequently, or when the relationships between
  stakeholders and the project team or within the stakeholder community are complex.

|36|流程图|8.1 8.2

8.1
流程图，也称过程图，用来显示在一个或多个输入转化成一个或多个输出的过程中，所需要的步骤顺序和可能分支。它通过映射水平价值链的过程细节来显示活动、决策点、分支循环、并行路径及整体处理顺序。图 8-6 展示了其中一个版本的价值链，即 SIPOC（供应商、输入、过程、输出和客户）模型。流程图可能有助于了解和估算一个过程的质量成本。通过工作流的逻辑分支及其相对频率来估算质量成本。这些逻辑分支细分为完成符合要求的输出而需要开展的一致性工作和非一致性工作。用于展示过程步骤时，流程图有时又被称为“过程流程图”或“过程流向图”，可帮助改进过程并识别可能出现质量缺陷或可以纳入质量检查的地方。
8.2
流程图展示了引发缺陷的一系列步骤。

8.1
Flowcharts are also referred to as process maps because they display the sequence of steps and the branching possibilities that exist for a process that transforms one or more inputs into one or more outputs. Flowcharts show the activities, decision points, branching loops, parallel paths, and the overall order of processing by mapping the operational details of procedures that exist within a horizontal value chain. One version of a value chain, known as a SIPOC (suppliers, inputs, process, outputs, and customers) model, is shown in Figure 8-6. Flowcharts may prove useful in understanding and estimating the cost of quality for a process. Information is obtained by using the workflow branching logic and associated relative frequencies to estimate the expected monetary value for the conformance and nonconformance work required to deliver the expected conforming output. When flowcharts are used to represent the steps in a process, they are sometimes called process flows or process flow diagrams and they can be used for process improvement as well as identifying where quality defects can occur or where to incorporate quality checks.
8.2
Flowcharts show a series of steps that lead to a defect.

|37|逻辑数据模型|8.1

8.1
逻辑数据模型把组织数据可视化，以商业语言加以描述，不依赖任何特定技术。逻辑数据模型可用于识别会出现数据完整性或其他质量问题的地方。
8.1
Logical data models are a visual representation of an organization’s data, described in business language and independent of any specific technology. The logical data model can be used to identify where data integrity or other quality issues can arise.

|38|思维导图|5.2 8.1 13.2

5.2
把从头脑风暴中获得的创意整合成一张图，用以反映创意之间的共性与差异，激发新创意。
8.1
思维导图是一种用于可视化组织信息的绘图法。质量思维导图通常是基于单个质量概念创建的，是绘制在空白的页面中央的图像，之后再增加以图像、词汇或词条形式表现的想法。思维导图技术可以有助于快速收集项目质量要求、制约因素、依赖关系和联系。
13.2
思维导图用于对相关方信息、相互关系以及他们与组织的关系进行可视化整理。
5.2
Mind mapping consolidates ideas created through individual brainstorming sessions into a single map to reflect commonality and differences in understanding and to generate new ideas.
8.1
Mind mapping is a diagrammatic method used to visually organizing information. A mind map in quality is often created around a single quality concept, drawn as an image in the center of a blank landscape page, to which associated representations of ideas such as images, words, and parts of words are added. The mind-mapping technique may help in the rapid gathering of project quality requirements, constraints, dependencies, and relationships.
13.2
Mind mapping is used to visually organize information about stakeholders and their relationship to each other and the organization.

|39|矩阵图|8.1 8.2

8.1
矩阵图在行列交叉的位置展示因素、原因和目标之间的关系强弱。根据可用来比较因素的数量，项目经理可使用不同形状的矩阵图，如 L 型、 T 型、Y 型、 X 型、 C 型和屋顶型矩阵。在本过程中，它们有助于识别对项目成功至关重要的质量测量指标。

8.2
矩阵图在行列交叉的位置展示因素、原因和目标之间的关系强弱。

8.1
Matrix diagrams help find the strength of relationships among different factors, causes, and objectives that exist between the rows and columns that form the matrix. Depending on how many factors may be compared, the project manager can use different shapes of matrix diagrams; for example, L, T, Y, X, C, and roof–shaped. In this process they facilitate identifying the key quality metrics that are important for the success of the project.
8.2
The matrix diagram seeks to show the strength of relationships among factors, causes, and objectives that exist between the rows and columns that form the matrix.

|40|亲和图|5.2 8.2

5.2
用来对大量创意进行分组的技术，以便进一步审查和分析。
8.2
亲和图可以对潜在缺陷成因进行分类，展示最应关注的领域。

5.2
Affinity diagrams allow large numbers of ideas to be classified into groups for review and analysis.
8.2
Affinity diagrams can organize potential causes of defects into groups showing areas that should be focused on the most.

|41|因果图||8.2 8.3

8.2
因果图，又称“鱼骨图”、“why-why分析图”和“石川图”，将问题陈述的原因分解为离散的分支，有助于识别问题的主要原因或根本原因。

8.3
因果图用于识别质量缺陷和错误可能造成的结果。
8.2
Cause-and-effect diagrams are also known as fishbone diagrams, why-why diagrams, or Ishikawa diagrams. This type of diagram breaks down the causes of the problem statement identified into discrete branches, helping to identify the main or root cause of the problem. Figure 8-9 is an example of a cause-and-effect diagram.

8.3
Cause-and-effect diagrams are used to identify the possible effects of quality defects and errors.

|42|直方图|8.2 8.3

8.2
直方图是一种展示数字数据的条形图，可以展示每个可交付成果的缺陷数量、缺陷成因的排列、各个过程的不合规次数，或项目或产品缺陷的其他表现形式。
8.3
直方图可按来源或组成部分展示缺陷数量。

8.2
Histograms show a graphical representation of numerical data. Histograms can show the number of defects per deliverable, a ranking of the cause of defects, the number of times each process is noncompliant, or other representations of project or product defects.
8.3
Histograms can demonstrate the number of defects by source or by component.

|43|散点图|8.2 8.3

8.2
散点图是一种展示两个变量之间的关系的图形，它能够展示两支轴的关系，一支轴表示过程、环境或活动的任何要素，另一支轴表示质量缺陷。
8.3
散点图可在一支轴上展示计划的绩效，在另一支轴上展示实际绩效。

|44|控制图||8.3

8.3
控制图用于确定一个过程是否稳定，或者是否具有可预测的绩效。规格上限和下限是根据要求制定的，反映了可允许的最大值和最小值。上下控制界限不同于规格界限。控制界限根据标准的统计原则，通过标准的统计计算确定，代表一个稳定过程的自然波动范围。项目经理和相关方可基于计算出的控制界限，识别须采取纠正措施的检查点，以预防不在控制界限内的绩效。控制图可用于监测各种类型的输出变量。虽然控制图最常用来跟踪批量生产中的重复性活动，但也可用来监测成本与进度偏差、产量、范围变更频率或其他管理工作成果，以便帮助确定项目管理过程是否受控。

|45|责任分配矩阵|9.1

9.1
责任分配矩阵展示项目资源在各个工作包中的任务分配。矩阵型图表的一个例子是职责分配矩阵(RAM)，它显示了分配给每个工作包的项目资源，用于说明工作包或活动与项目团队成员之间的关系。在大型项目中，可以制定多个层次的 RAM。例如，高层次的RAM 可定义项目团队、小组或部门负责 WBS 中的哪部分工作，而低层次的 RAM 则可在各小组内为具体活动分配角色、职责和职权。矩阵图能反映与每个人相关的所有活动，以及与每项活动相关的所有人员，它也可确保任何一项任务都只有一个人负责，从而避免职权不清。 RAM的一个例子是 RACI（执行、负责、咨询和知情）矩阵，如图 9-4 所示。图中最左边的一列表示有待完成的工作（活动）。分配给每项工作的资源可以是个人或小组，项目经理也可根据项目需要，选择“领导”或“资源”等适用词汇，来分配项目责任。如果团队是由内部和外部人员组成， RACI 矩阵对明确划分角色和职责特别有用。

9.1
A RAM shows the project resources assigned to each work package. It is used to illustrate the connections between work packages, or activities, and project team members. On larger projects, RAMs can be developed at various levels. For example, a high-level RAM can define the responsibilities of a project team, group, or unit within each component of the WBS. Lower-level RAMs are used within the group to designate roles, responsibilities, and levels of authority for specific activities. The matrix format shows all activities associated with one person and all people associated with one activity. This also ensures that there is only one person accountable for any one task to avoid confusion about who is ultimately in charge or has authority for the work. One example of a RAM is a RACI (responsible, accountable, consult, and inform) chart, shown in Figure 9-4. The sample chart shows the work to be done in the left column as activities. The assigned resources can be shown as individuals or groups. The project manager can select other options, such as “lead” and “resource” designations, as appropriate for the project. A RACI chart is a useful tool to use to ensure clear assignment of roles and responsibilities when the team consists of internal and external resources.

|46|文本型|9.1

9.1
如果需要详细描述团队成员的职责，就可以采用文本型。文本型文件通常以概述的形式，提供诸如职责、职权、能力和资格等方面的信息。这种文件有多种名称，如职位描述、角色 — 职责 — 职权表，该文件可作为未来项目的模板，特别是在根据当前项目的经验教训对其内容进行更新之后。

9.1
Team member responsibilities that require detailed descriptions can be specified in textoriented formats. Usually in outline form, these documents provide information such as responsibilities, authority, competencies, and qualifications. The documents are known by various names including position descriptions and role-responsibility-authority forms. These documents can be used as templates for future projects, especially when the information is updated throughout the current project by applying lessons learned.

|47|层级型|9.1

9.1
可以采用传统的组织结构图，自上而下地显示各种职位及其相互关系。

• 工作分解结构 (WBS)。 WBS 用来显示如何把项目可交付成果分解为工作包，有助于明确高层级的职责。
• 组织分解结构 (OBS)。 WBS 显示项目可交付成果的分解，而 OBS 则按照组织现有的部门、单元或团队排列，并在每个部门下列出项目活动或工作包。运营部门（如信息技术部或采购部）只需要找到其所在的 OBS 位置，就能看到自己的全部项目职责。
• 资源分解结构（RBS）。 资源分解结构是按资源类别和类型，对团队和实物资源的层级列表，用于规划、管理和控制项目工作。每向下一个层次都代表对资源的更详细描述，直到信息细到可以与工作分解结构（WBS）相结合，用来规划和监控项目工作。

9.1
The traditional organizational chart structure can be used to show positions and relationships in a graphical, top-down format.

• Work breakdown structures (WBS). The WBS is designed to show how project deliverables are broken down into work packages and provide a way of showing high-level areas of responsibility.
• Organizational breakdown structure (OBS). While the WBS shows a breakdown of project deliverables, an OBS is arranged according to an organization’s existing departments, units, or teams, with the project activities or work packages listed under each department. An operational department, such as information technology or purchasing, can see all of its project responsibilities by looking at its portion of the OBS.
• Resource breakdown structure. The resource breakdown structure is a hierarchical list of team and physical resources related by category and resource type that is used for planning, managing and controlling project work. Each descending (lower) level represents an increasingly detailed description of the resource until the information is small enough to be used in conjunction with the work breakdown structure (WBS) to allow the work to be planned, monitored, and controlled.

|48|层级图|11.3

11.3
如果使用了两个以上的参数对风险进行分类，那就不能使用概率和影响矩阵，而需要使用其他图形。例如，气泡图能显示三维数据。在气泡图中，把每个风险都绘制成一个气泡，并用x 轴值、 y 轴值和气泡大小来表示风险的三个参数。图 11-10 是气泡图的示例，其中， X轴代表可监测性， Y轴代表邻近性，影响值则以气泡大小表示。

11.3
Where risks have been categorized using more than two parameters, the probability and impact matrix cannot be used and other graphical representations are required. For example, a bubble chart displays three dimensions of data, where each risk is plotted as a disk (bubble), and the three parameters are represented by the x-axis value, the y-axis value, and the bubble size. An example bubble chart is shown in Figure 11-10, with detectability and proximity plotted on the x and y axes, and impact value represented by bubble size.

|49|多标准决策与分析|4.6 5.2 5.3 8.1 8.2 9.3 11.5 13.4

4.6
该技术借助决策矩阵，根据一系列预定义的准则，用系统分析方法评估变更请求。
5.2
该技术借助决策矩阵，用系统分析方法建立诸如风险水平、不确定性和价值收益等多种标准，以对众多创意进行评估和排序。
5.3
多标准决策分析是一种借助决策矩阵来使用系统分析方法的技术，目的是建立诸如需求、进度、预算和资源等多种标准来完善项目和产品范围。
8.1
多标准决策分析工具（如优先矩阵）可用于识别关键事项和合适的备选方案，并通过一系列决策排列出备选方案的优先顺序。先对标准排序和加权，再应用于所有备选方案，计算出各个备选方案的数学得分，然后根据得分对备选方案排序。在本过程中，它有助于排定质量测量指标的优先顺序。
8.2
在讨论影响项目或产品质量的备选方案时，可以使用多标准决策评估多个标准。 “项目” 决策可以包括在不同执行情景或供应商中加以选择， “产品” 决策可以包括评估生命周期成本、进度、相关方的满意程度，以及与解决产品缺陷有关的风险。
9.3
选择标准常用于选择项目的实物资源或项目团队。使用多标准决策分析工具制定出标准，用于对潜在资源进行评级或打分（例如，在内部和外部团队资源之间进行选择）。根据标准的相对重要性对标准进行加权，加权值可能因资源类型的不同而发生变化。可使用的选择标准包括：

• 可用性。 确认资源能否在项目所需时段内为项目所用。
• 成本。 确认增加资源的成本是否在规定的预算内。
• 能力。 确认团队成员是否提供了项目所需的能力。
  有些选择标准对团队资源来说是独特的，包括：
• 经验。 确认团队成员具备项目成功所需的相关经验。
• 知识。 团队成员是否掌握关于客户、执行过的类似项目和项目环境细节的相关知识。
• 技能。 确认团队成员拥有使用项目工具的相关技能。
• 态度。 团队成员能否与他人协同工作，以形成有凝聚力的团队。
• 国际因素。 团队成员的位置、时区和沟通能力。
  11.5
  列入考虑范围的风险应对策略可能是一种或多种。决策技术有助于对多种风险应对策略进行优先级排序。多标准决策分析借助决策矩阵，提供建立关键决策标准、评估备选方案并加以评级，以及选择首选方案的系统分析方法。风险应对策略的选择标准可能包括（但不限于）：应对成本、应对策略在改变概率和（或）影响方面的预计有效性、资源可用性、时间限制（紧迫性、邻近性和潜伏期）、风险发生的影响级别、应对措施对相关风险的作用、导致的次生风险等。如果原定的应对策略被证明无效，可在项目后期采取不同的应对策略。
  13.4
  对考察相关方参与的成功程度的多种标准进行优先级排序和加权，识别出最适当的选项。

4.6
This technique uses a decision matrix to provide a systematic analytical approach to evaluate the requested changes according to a set of predefined criteria.
5.2
A technique that uses a decision matrix to provide a systematic analytical approach for establishing criteria, such as risk levels, uncertainty, and valuation, to evaluate and rank many ideas.
5.3
A decision-making technique that can be used in this process includes but is not limited to multicriteria decision analysis. Described in Section 8.1.2.4, multicriteria decision analysis is a technique that uses a decision matrix to provide a systematic analytical approach for establishing criteria, such as requirements, schedule, budget, and resources, in order to refine the project and product scope for the project.
8.1
Multicriteria decision analysis tools (e.g., prioritization matrix) can be used to identify the key issues and suitable alternatives to be prioritized as a set of decisions for implementation. Criteria are prioritized and weighted before being applied to all available alternatives to obtain a mathematical score for each alternative. The alternatives are then ranked by score. As used in this process, it can help prioritize quality metrics.
8.2
Multicriteria decision making is used to evaluate several criteria when discussing alternatives that impact project or product quality.Project decisions can include choosing among different implementation scenarios or suppliers. Product decisions can include evaluating the life cycle cost, schedule, stakeholder satisfaction, and risks associated with resolving product defects.
9.3
Decision-making techniques that can be used in the Acquire Resources process include but are not limited to multicriteria decision analysis, as described in Section 8.1.2.4. Selection criteria are often used to select physical project resources, or the project team. Using a multicriteria decision analysis tool, criteria are developed and used to rate or score potential resources (for example, choosing between internal and external team resources). The criteria are weighted according to their relative importance and values can be changed for different types of resources. Some examples of selection criteria that can be used are:

• Availability. Verify that the resource is available to work on the project within the time period needed.
• Cost. Verify if the cost of adding the resource is within the prescribed budget.
• Ability. Verify that the team member provides the capability needed by the project.
  Some selection criteria that are unique for team resources are:
• Experience. Verify that the team member has the relevant experience that will contribute to the project success.
• Knowledge. Consider if the team member has relevant knowledge of the customer, similar implemented projects, and nuances of the project environment.
• Skills. Determine if the team member has the relevant skills to use a project tool.
• Attitude. Determine if the team member has the ability to work with others as a cohesive team.
• International factors. Consider team member location, time zone, and communication capabilities.
  11.5
  One or more risk response strategies may be under consideration. Decision-making techniques can help prioritize risk response strategies. Multicriteria decision analysis uses a decision matrix to provide a systematic approach for establishing key decision criteria, evaluating and ranking alternatives, and selecting a preferred option. Criteria for risk response selection may include but are not limited to cost of response, likely effectiveness of response in changing probability and/or impact, resource availability, timing constraints (urgency, proximity, and dormancy), level of impact if the risk occurs, effect of response on related risks,
  introduction of secondary risks, etc. Different strategies may be selected later in the project if the original choice proves to be ineffective.
  13.4
  Criteria for successful stakeholder engagement are prioritized and weighted to identify the most appropriate choice.

|50|投票|4.5 4.6 5.2 5.5 6.4 7.2 13.4

4.5
投票可以包括用下列方法进行决策：一致同意、大多数同意或相对多数原则。
4.6
投票可以采取一致同意、大多数同意或相对多数原则的方式，以决定是否接受、推迟或否决变更请求。
5.2
投票是一种为达成某种期望结果，而对多个未来行动方案进行评估的集体决策技术和过程。本技术用于生成、归类和排序产品需求。投票技术示例包括：

• 一致同意。 每个人都同意某个行动方案。
• 大多数同意。 获得群体中超过 50% 人员的支持，就能做出决策。把参与决策的小组人数定为奇数，可防止因平局而无法达成决策。
• 相对多数同意。 根据群体中相对多数人的意见做出决策，即便未能获得大多数人的支持。通常在候选项超过两个时使用
  5.5
  当由项目团队和其他相关方进行验收时，使用投票来形成结论。
  6.4
  举手表决是从投票方法衍生出来的一种形式，经常用于敏捷项目中。采用这种技术时，项目经理会让团队成员针对某个决定示意支持程度，举拳头表示不支持，伸五个手指表示完全支持，伸出三个以下手指的团队成员有机会与团队讨论其反对意见。项目经理会不断进行举手表决，直到整个团队达成共识（所有人都伸出三个以上手指）或同意进入下一个决定。
  7.2
  投票是为达成某种期望结果，而对多个未来行动方案进行评估的过程。这些技术可以调动团队成员的参与，提高估算的准确性，并提高对估算结果的责任感。
  13.4
  通过投票，选出应对相关方参与水平偏差的最佳方案。

4.5
Voting can include making decisions based on unanimity, majority, or plurality.
4.6
Voting can take the form of unanimity, majority, or plurality to decide on whether to accept, defer, or reject change requests.
5.2
Voting is a collective decision-making technique and an assessment process having multiple alternatives with an expected outcome in the form of future actions. These techniques can be used to generate, classify, and prioritize product requirements. Examples of voting techniques include:

• Unanimity. A decision that is reached whereby everyone agrees on a single course of action.
• Majority. A decision that is reached with support obtained from more than 50% of the members of the group.
  Having a group size with an uneven number of participants can ensure that a decision will be reached, rather than resulting in a tie.
• Plurality. A decision that is reached whereby the largest block in a group decides, even if a majority is not achieved. This method is generally used when the number of options nominated is more than two.
  5.5
  Voting is used to reach a conclusion when the validation is performed by the project team and other stakeholders.
  6.4
  One variation of the voting method that is often used in agile-based projects is called the fist of five (also called fist to five). In this technique, the project manager asks the team to show their level of support for a decision by holding up a closed fist (indicating no support) up to five fingers (indicating full support). If a team member holds up fewer than three fingers, the team member is given the opportunity to discuss any objections with the team. The project manager continues the fist-of-five process until the team achieves consensus (everyone holds up three or more fingers) or agrees to move on to the next decision.
  7.2
  Voting is an assessment process having multiple alternatives with an expected outcome in the form of future actions. These techniques are useful for engaging team members to improve estimate accuracy and commitment to the emerging estimates.
  13.4
  Voting can be used to select the best response for a variance in stakeholder engagement.

|51|独裁型决策制定|4.6 5.2

4.6
采用这种决策技术，将由一个人负责为整个集体制定决策。
5.2
采用这种方法，将由一个人负责为整个集体制定决策。

4.6
Autocratic decision making. In this decision-making technique, one individual takes the responsibility for making the decision for the entire group.
5.2
In this method, one individual takes responsibility for making the decision for the group.

|52|优先级排序或分级|13.2

13.2
应该对相关方需求以及相关方本身进行优先级排序或分级。具有最大利益和最高影响的相关方，通常应该排在优先级清单的最前面。
13.2
Stakeholder requirements need to be prioritized and ranked, as do the stakeholders themselves. Stakeholders with the most interest and the highest influence are often prioritized at the top of the list.

|53|沟通胜任力|10.2

10.2
经过裁剪的沟通技能的组合，有助于明确关键信息的目的、建立有效关系、实现信息共享和采取领导行为。
10.2
A combination of tailored communication skills that considers factors such as clarity of purpose in key messages, effective relationships and information sharing, and leadership behaviors.

|54|非语言/非口头技能|10.2

10.2
例如，通过示意、语调和面部表情等适当的肢体语言来表达意思。镜像模仿和眼神交流也是重要的技能。团队成员应该知道如何通过说什么和不说什么来表达自己的想法。
10.2
Examples of nonverbal communication include appropriate body language to transmit meaning through gestures, tone of voice, and facial expressions. Mirroring and eye contact are also important techniques. The team members should be aware of how they are expressing themselves both through what they say and what they don’t say.

|55|反馈|10.2 13.3 13.4

10.2
反馈是关于沟通、可交付成果或情况的反应信息。反馈支持项目经理和团队及所有其他项目相关方之间的互动沟通。例如，指导、辅导和磋商。
13.3
在开展管理相关方参与过程时，应该根据沟通管理计划，针对每个相关方采取相应的沟通方法。项目管理团队应该使用反馈机制，来了解相关方对各种项目管理活动和关键决策的反应。反馈的收集方式包括（但不限于）：

• 正式与非正式对话；
• 问题识别和讨论；
• 会议；
• 进展报告；
• 调查。
  13.4
  反馈用于确保发送给相关方的信息被接收和理解。

10.2
Feedback is information about reactions to communications, a deliverable, or a situation. Feedback supports interactive communication between the project manager, team and all other project stakeholders. Examples include coaching, mentoring, and negotiating.
13.3
The methods of communication identified for each stakeholder in the communications management plan are applied during stakeholder engagement management. The project management team uses feedback to assist in understanding stakeholder reaction to the various project management activities and key decisions. Feedback may be collected in the following ways, but not limited to:

• Conversations; both formal and informal,
• Issue identification and discussion,
• Meetings,
• Progress reporting, and
• Surveys.
  13.4
  Feedback is used to ensure that the information to stakeholders is received and understood.

|56|演示|10.2 13.4

10.2
演示是信息和/或文档的正式交付。向项目相关方明确有效地演示项目信息可包括（但不限于）：

• 向相关方报告项目进度和信息更新；
• 提供背景信息以支持决策制定；
• 提供关于项目及其目标的通用信息，以提升项目工作和项目团队的形象；
• 提供具体信息，以提升对项目工作和目标的理解和支持力度。
  为获得演示成功，应该从内容和形式上考虑以下因素：
• 受众及其期望和需求；
• 项目和项目团队的需求及目标。
  13.4
  演示为相关方提供清晰的信息。

10.2
A presentation is the formal delivery of information and/or documentation. Clear and effective presentations of project information to relevant stakeholders can include but are not limited to:

• Progress reports and information updates to stakeholders;
• Background information to support decision making;
• General information about the project and its objectives, for the purposes of raising the profile of the work of the project and the team; and
• Specific information aimed at increasing understanding and support of the work and objectives of the project.
  Presentations will be successful when the content and delivery take the following into account:
• The audience, their expectations, and needs; and
• The needs and objectives of the project and project team.
  13.4
  Presentations provide clear information to stakeholders.

|57|积极倾听|4.4 10.2 13.4

4.4
积极倾听有助于减少误解并促进沟通和知识分享。
10.2
与说话人保持互动，并总结对话内容，以确保有效的信息交换。
13.4
通过积极倾听，减少理解错误和沟通错误。

4.4
Active listening helps reduce misunderstandings and improves communication and knowledge sharing.
10.2
Listening actively involves acknowledging, clarifying and confirming, understanding, and removing barriers that adversely affect comprehension.
13.4
Active listening is used to reduce misunderstandings and other miscommunication.

|58|沟通风格评估|10.1

10.1
规划沟通活动时，用于评估沟通风格并识别偏好的沟通方法、形式和内容的一种技术。常用于不支持项目的相关方。可以先开展相关方参与度评估（见 13.2.2.5 节），再开展沟通风格评估。在相关方参与度评估中，找出相关方参与度的差距。为弥补这种差距，就需要特别裁剪沟通活动和工件。

10.1
A technique used to assess communication styles and identify the preferred communication method, format, and content for planned communication activities. Often used with unsupportive stakeholders, this assessment may follow a stakeholder engagement assessment (described in Section 13.2.2.5) to identify gaps in stakeholder engagement that require additional tailored communication activities and artifacts.

|59|冲突管理|4.1 4.2 9.4 9.5 10.2 13.3

4.1
冲突管理有助于相关方就目标、成功标准、高层级需求、项目描述、总体里程碑和其他内容达成一致意见。
4.2
必要时可以通过冲突管理让具有差异性的相关方就项目管理计划的所有方面达成共识.
9.4
项目经理应及时地以建设性方式解决冲突，从而创建高绩效团队。
9.5
在项目环境中，冲突不可避免。冲突的来源包括资源稀缺、进度优先级排序和个人工作风格差异等。采用团队基本规则、团队规范及成熟的项目管理实践（如沟通规划和角色定义），可以减少冲突的数量。
成功的冲突管理可提高生产力，改进工作关系。同时，如果管理得当，意见分歧有利于提高创造力和改进决策。假如意见分歧成为负面因素，应该首先由项目团队成员负责解决；如果冲突升级，项目经理应提供协助，促成满意的解决方案，采用直接和合作的方式，尽早并且通常在私下处理冲突。如果破坏性冲突继续存在，则可使用正式程序，包括采取惩戒措施。
项目经理解决冲突的能力往往决定其管理项目团队的成败。不同的项目经理可能采用不同的解决冲突方法。影响冲突解决方法的因素包括：

• 冲突的重要性与激烈程度；
• 解决冲突的紧迫性；
• 涉及冲突的人员的相对权力；
• 维持良好关系的重要性；
• 永久或暂时解决冲突的动机。
  有五种常用的冲突解决方法，每种技巧都有各自的作用和用途。
• 撤退/回避。 从实际或潜在冲突中退出，将问题推迟到准备充分的时候，或者将问题推给其他人员解决。
• 缓和/包容。 强调一致而非差异；为维持和谐与关系而退让一步，考虑其他方的需要。
• 妥协/调解。 为了暂时或部分解决冲突，寻找能让各方都在一定程度上满意的方案，但这种方法有时会导致“双输”局面。
• 强迫/命令。 以牺牲其他方为代价，推行某一方的观点；只提供赢 — 输方案。通常是利用权力来强行解决紧急问题，这种方法通常会导致“赢输”局面。
• 合作/解决问题。 综合考虑不同的观点和意见，采用合作的态度和开放式对话引导各方达成共识和承诺，这种方法可以带来双赢局面。
  10.2
  13.3
  项目经理应确保及时解决冲突。

4.1
Conflict management can be used to help bring stakeholders into alignment on the objectives, success criteria, high-level requirements, project description, summary milestones, and other elements of the charter.
4.2
Conflict management may be necessary to bring diverse stakeholders into alignment on all aspects of the project management plan.
9.4
The project manager needs to resolve conflicts in a timely manner and in a constructive way in order to achieve a high-performing team.
9.5
Conflict is inevitable in a project environment. Sources of conflict include scarce resources, scheduling priorities, and personal work styles. Team ground rules, group norms, and solid project management practices, like communication planning and role definition, reduce the amount of conflict.
Successful conflict management results in greater productivity and positive working relationships. When managed properly, differences of opinion can lead to increased creativity and better decision making. If the differences become a negative factor, project team members are initially responsible for their resolution. If conflict escalates, the project manager should help facilitate a satisfactory resolution. Conflict should be addressed early and usually in private, using a direct, collaborative approach. If disruptive conflict continues, formal procedures may be used, including disciplinary actions.
The success of project managers in managing their project teams often depends on their ability to resolve conflict. Different project managers may use different conflict resolution methods. Factors that influence conflict resolution methods include:

• Importance and intensity of the conflict,
• Time pressure for resolving the conflict,
• Relative power of the people involved in the conflict,
• Importance of maintaining a good relationship, and
• Motivation to resolve conflict on a long-term or short-term basis.
  There are five general techniques for resolving conflict. Each technique has its place and use:
• Withdraw/avoid. Retreating from an actual or potential conflict situation; postponing the issue to be better prepared or to be resolved by others.
• Smooth/accommodate.** Emphasizing areas of agreement rather than areas of difference; conceding one’s position to the needs of others to maintain harmony and relationships.
• Compromise/reconcile. Searching for solutions that bring some degree of satisfaction to all parties in order to temporarily or partially resolve the conflict. This approach occasionally results in a lose-lose situation.
• Force/direct. Pushing one’s viewpoint at the expense of others; offering only win-lose solutions, usually enforced through a power position to resolve an emergency. This approach often results to a win-lose situation.
• Collaborate/problem solve. Incorporating multiple viewpoints and insights from differing perspectives; requires a cooperative attitude and open dialogue that typically leads to consensus and commitment. This approach can result in a win-win situation.
  10.2
  13.3
  The project manager should ensure that conflicts are resolved in a timely manner.

|60|文化意识|10.1 10.2 13.3 13.4

10.1
文化意识指理解个人、群体和组织之间的差异，并据此调整项目的沟通策略。具有文化意识并采取后续行动，能够最小化因项目相关方社区内的文化差异而导致的理解错误和沟通错误。文化意识和文化敏感性有助于项目经理依据相关方和团队成员的文化差异和文化需求对沟通进行规划。
10.2
13.3
文化意识有助于项目经理和团队通过考虑文化差异和相关方需求，来实现有效沟通。
13.4
文化意识和文化敏感性有助于项目经理依据相关方和团队成员的文化差异和文化需求对沟通进行规划。

10.1
Cultural awareness and cultural sensitivity help the project manager to plan communications based on the cultural differences and requirements of stakeholders and team members.
10.2
13.3
Cultural awareness is used to help the project manager and team to communicate effectively by considering cultural differences and the requirements of stakeholders.

13.4
Cultural awareness and cultural sensitivity help the project manager to plan communications based on the cultural differences and requirements of stakeholders and team members.

|61|制定决策|9.5

9.5
这种情况下，决策包括谈判能力以及影响组织与项目管理团队的能力，而不是决策工具集所描述的一系列工具。进行有效决策需要：

• 着眼于所要达到的目标；
• 遵循决策流程；
• 研究环境因素；
• 分析可用信息；
• 激发团队创造力；
• 理解风险。

9.5
Decision making, in this context, involves the ability to negotiate and influence the organization and the project management team, rather than the set of tools described in the decision making tool set. Some guidelines for decision making include:

• Focus on goals to be served,
• Follow a decision-making process,
• Study the environmental factors,
• Analyze available information,
• Stimulate team creativity, and
• Account for risk.

|62|情商|9.5

9.5
情商指识别、评估和管理个人情绪、他人情绪及团体情绪的能力。项目管理团队能用情商来了解、评估及控制项目团队成员的情绪，预测团队成员的行为，确认团队成员的关注点及跟踪团队成员的问题，来达到减轻压力、加强合作的目的。
9.5
Emotional intelligence is the ability to identify, assess, and manage the personal emotions of oneself and other people, as well as the collective emotions of groups of people. The team can use emotional intelligence to reduce tension and increase cooperation by identifying, assessing, and controlling the sentiments of project team members, anticipating their actions, acknowledging their concerns, and following up on their issues.

|63|引导|4.1 4.2 4.4 5.2 5.3 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5

4.1
引导是指有效引导团队活动成功以达成决定、解决方案或结论的能力。引导者确保参与者有效参与，互相理解，考虑所有意见，按既定决策流程全力支持得到的结论或结果，以及所达成的行动计划和协议在之后得到合理执行。
4.2
引导者确保参与者有效参与，互相理解，考虑所有意见，按既定决策流程全力支持得到的结论或结果。
4.4
引导有助于有效指引团队成功地达成决定、解决方案或结论。
5.2
引导与主题研讨会结合使用，把主要相关方召集在一起定义产品需求。研讨会可用于快速定义跨职能需求并协调相关方的需求差异。因为具有群体互动的特点，
有效引导的研讨会有助于参与者之间建立信任、改进关系、改善沟通，从而有利于相关方达成一致意见。此外，与分别召开会议相比，研讨会能够更早发现并解决问题。
适合采用引导技能的情境包括（但不限于）：

• 联合应用设计或开发 (JAD)。 JAD 会议适用于软件开发行业。这种研讨会注重把业务主题专家和开发团队集中在一起，以收集需求和改进软件开发过程。
• 质量功能展开 (QFD)。 制造行业则采用 QFD 这种引导技能来帮助确定新产品的关键特征。 QFD从收集客户需要（又称“客户声音”）开始，然后客观地对这些需要进行分类和排序，并为实现这些需要而设定目标。
• 用户故事。 用户故事是对所需功能的简短文字描述，经常产生于需求研讨会。用户故事描述哪个相关方将从功能中受益（角色），他需要实现什么（目标），以及他期望获得什么利益（动机）。

5.3
在研讨会和座谈会中使用引导技能来协调具有不同期望或不同专业知识的关键相关方，使他们就项目可交付成果以及项目和产品边界达成跨职能的共识。
11.2
引导能提高用于识别单个项目风险和整体项目风险来源的许多技术的有效性。熟练的引导者可以帮助参会者专注于风险识别任务、准确遵循与技术相关的方法，有助于确保风险描述清晰、找到并克服偏见，以及解决任何可能出现的分歧。
11.3
开展引导，能够提高对单个项目风险的定性分析的有效性。熟练的引导者可以帮助参会者专注于风险分析任务、准确遵循与技术相关的方法、就概率和影响评估达成共识、找到并克服偏见，以及解决任何可能出现的分歧。
11.4
在由项目团队成员和其他相关方参加的专门风险研讨会中，配备一名熟练的引导者，有助于更好地收集输入数据。可以通过阐明研讨会的目的，在参会者之间建立共识，确保持续关注任务，并以创新方式处理人际冲突或偏见来源，来改善引导式研讨会的有效性。
11.5
开展引导，能够提高单个项目风险和整体项目风险应对策略制定的有效性。熟练的引导者可以帮助风险责任人理解风险、识别并比较备选的风险应对策略、选择适当的应对策略，以及找到并克服偏见。

4.1
Facilitation is the ability to effectively guide a group event to a successful decision, solution, or conclusion. A facilitator ensures that there is effective participation, that participants achieve a mutual understanding, that all contributions are considered, that conclusions or results have full buy-in according to the decision process established for the project, and that the actions and agreements achieved are appropriately dealt with afterward.
4.2
Facilitation ensures that there is effective participation, that participants achieve a mutual understanding, that all contributions are considered, and that conclusions or results have full buy-in according to the decision process established for the project.
4.4
Facilitation helps effectively guide a group to a successful decision, solution, or conclusion.
5.2
Facilitation is used with focused sessions that bring key stakeholders together to define product requirements. Workshops can be used to quickly define cross-functional requirements and reconcile stakeholder differences. Because of their interactive group nature, well-facilitated sessions can build trust, foster relationships, and improve communication among the participants, which can lead to increased stakeholder consensus. In addition, issues can be discovered earlier and resolved more quickly than in individual sessions.
Facilitation skills are used in the following situations, but are not limited to:

• Joint application design/development (JAD). JAD sessions are used in the software development industry. These facilitated sessions focus on bringing business subject matter experts and the development team together to gather requirements and improve the software development process.
• Quality function deployment (QFD). In the manufacturing industry, QFD is another facilitation technique that helps determine critical characteristics for new product development. QFD starts by collecting customer needs, also known as voice of the customer (VOC). These needs are then objectively sorted and prioritized, and goals are set for achieving them.
• User stories. User stories, which are short, textual descriptions of required functionality, are often developed during a requirements workshop. User stories describe the stakeholder role, who benefits from the feature (role), what the stakeholder needs to accomplish (goal), and the benefit to the stakeholder (motivation).
  5.3
  Facilitation is used in workshops and working sessions with key stakeholders who have a variety of expectations or fields of expertise. The goal is to reach a cross-functional and common understanding of the project deliverables and project and product boundaries.
  11.2
  Facilitation improves the effectiveness of many of the techniques used to identify individual project risks and sources of overall project risk. A skilled facilitator can help participants remain focused on the risk identification task, follow the method associated with the technique accurately, ensure clear risk descriptions, identify and overcome sources of bias, and resolve any disagreements that may arise.
  11.3
  Facilitation improves the effectiveness of the qualitative analysis of individual project risks. A skilled facilitator can help participants remain focused on the risk analysis task, follow the method associated with the technique accurately, reach consensus on assessments of probability and impacts, identify and overcome sources of bias, and resolve any disagreements that may arise.
  11.4
  A skilled facilitator is useful for gathering input data during a dedicated risk workshop involving project team members and other stakeholders. Facilitated workshops can improve effectiveness by establishing a clear understanding of the purpose of the workshop, building consensus among participants, ensuring continued focus on the task, and using creative approaches to deal with interpersonal conflict or sources of bias.
  11.5
  The use of facilitation improves the effectiveness of developing responses to individual project risks and overall project risk. A skilled facilitator can help risk owners understand the risk, identify and compare alternative possible risk response strategies, choose an appropriate response strategy, and identify and overcome sources of bias.

|64|影响力|9.4 9.5 9.6

9.4
本过程的影响力技能收集相关的关键信息，在维护相互信任的关系时，来解决重要问题并达成一致意见。
9.5
在矩阵环境中，项目经理对团队成员通常没有或仅有很小的命令职权，所以他们适时影响相关方的能力，对保证项目成功非常关键。影响力主要体现在如下各方面：

• 说服他人；
• 清晰表达观点和立场；
• 积极且有效的倾听；
• 了解并综合考虑各种观点；
• 收集相关信息，在维护相互信任的关系下，解决问题并达成一致意见。
  9.6
  影响力有助于项目经理及时解决问题并获得所需资源。

9.4
An influencing skill used in this process is gathering relevant and critical information to address important issues and reach agreements while maintaining mutual trust.
9.5
Because project managers often have little or no direct authority over team members in a matrix environment, their ability to influence stakeholders on a timely basis is critical to project success. Key influencing skills include:

• Ability to be persuasive;
• Clearly articulating points and positions;
• High levels of active and effective listening skills;
• Awareness of, and consideration for, the various perspectives in any situation; and
• Gathering relevant information to address issues and reach agreements while maintaining mutual trust.
  9.6
  Influencing can help the project manager solve problems and obtain the resources needed in a timely manner.

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