Dashed hopes 破灭的希望，新兴国家的出路在何方？经济学人精读

文 / 王不留（微信公众号：考研英语笔记）

选自20210731，Leaders

Unrest and economic underperformance stalk the emerging world. The key to better times remains openness.

动乱和经济表现不佳在新兴世界蔓延。让（新兴市场）时代更好的关键仍是开放。

王不留（wbliu85）注：以上是直译。可意译成：“新兴市场受困于社会动荡和经济疲软，然而，开放仍是一剂良方。”

unrest|ʌnˈrest| 动荡；动乱；骚动

At the start of the century, developing economies were a source of unbounded optimism and fierce ambition. Today South Africa is reeling from an insurrection, Colombia has suffered violent protests and Tunisia faces a constitutional crisis. Illiberal government is in fashion. Peru has just sworn in a Marxist as its president and independent institutions are under attack in Brazil, India and Mexico.

本世纪初，发展中国家是无限乐观和雄心壮志的源泉。如今，南非正在遭受暴动，哥伦比亚遭遇暴力抗议，突尼斯面临宪法危机。非自由政府盛行。秘鲁刚让一位马克思主义者宣誓就职为总统，巴西，印度和墨西哥的独立（政府）权力正受到攻击。

王不留（wbliu85）注：因Illiberal Democracy专有名词翻译为“非自由民主”，故将illiberal government翻译为“非自由政府”。

unbounded: not kept within bounds; unrestrained 无节制的，不羁的

fierce ambition：雄心壮志；野心勃勃

Reel vi 迷惑；震惊；蹒跚地走路

reel from 遭受

insurrection /ˌɪnsəˈrɛkʃən/ n. 起义, 暴动, 叛乱, 造反

constitutional ：/ˌkɑnstə'tuʃənl/ 宪法的；

illiberal 偏狭的；不开朗的；气量小的；小气的

Be in fashion 流行

Swear sb in 使某人宣誓就职

This wave of unrest and authoritarianism partly reflects covid-19, which has exposed and exploited vulnerabilities, from rotten bureaucracies to frayed social safety-nets. And as we explain this week, the despair and chaos threaten to exacerbate a profound economic problem: many poor and middle-income countries are losing the knack of catching up with the richest ones.

这波动乱和专制主义在一定程度上是对新冠疫情的反映，疫情暴露并利用了从腐朽的官僚机构到破旧的社会安全网等漏洞。如我们本周所解释的那样，绝望和混乱有可能加剧一个深刻的经济问题：许多贫穷和中等收入国家正失去追赶最富有国家的本领。

unrest ：n. 动乱, 骚乱, 不安宁

authoritarianism n. 权力主义,独裁主义

exploit：/ɪkˈsplɔɪt/：vt. 开发，开拓；利用（…为自己谋利）

vulnerability：/ˌvʌlnərə'biliti/ n. 弱点,攻击

rotten|ˈrɒtn; 美 ˈrɑ:tn|腐烂的；腐败的；腐朽的

rotten bureaucracies 腐朽的官僚主义

Fray v 磨损；使磨损

Frayed 受磨损的

threaten to 预示着；危害；威胁

exacerbate 使……加剧

Knack （天生的）技能，本领。常用搭配为knack for doing sth 以及 knack of doing sth

Our excess-mortality model suggests that 8m-16m people have died in the pandemic. The central estimate is 14m. The developing world is vulnerable to the virus, especially lower-middle-income countries where remote working is rare and plenty of people are fat and old. If you strip out China, non-rich countries have 68% of the world’s population but 87% of its deaths. Only 5% of those aged over 12 are fully vaccinated.

我们的超额死亡率模型表明，已有800万到1600万人死于这场疫情。中心值估计是1400万。发展中国家很容易受到这种病毒的影响，特别是中低收入国家，远程办公不常见，人口以肥胖和老人居多。排除我们，非富裕国家的人口占世界的68%，但死亡人数占到了87%。12岁以上的人群中，仅有5%完全接种了疫苗。

mortality |mɔ:ˈtæləti; 美 mɔ:rˈt-| 死亡数量；死亡率

Excess mortality rate：超额死亡率; 亡率

vulnerable：/'vʌlnərəbl/ ：adj. 易受伤的, 脆弱的, 敏感的

strip out：剥除; 剔除

Alongside the human cost is an economic bill, since emerging markets have less room to spend their way out of trouble. Medium-term GDP forecasts for all emerging economies are in aggregate 5% lower than before the virus struck. People are angry and, even though protesting during a pandemic is risky, violent demonstrations around the world are more common than at any time since 2008.

因为新兴市场摆脱困境的空间越来越小，所以它们在付出了人命的代价后，还要面临经济代价。所有新兴国家的中期GDP预测比疫情爆发前总计低了5%。人们很愤怒，即使疫情期间抗议很危险，世界各地的暴力示威活动比2008年以来任何时候更常见。

王不留（wbliu85）注：第一句是不是感到很奇怪，没有主语。这是因为Alongside the human cost is an economic bill 是个倒装句。转成正常语序就是：An economic bill is alongside the human cost.

Alongside在本句是介词，“与……并排”。Human cost的字面意思是“人力成本”，结合上文，实际表示的意思是“大量人员伤亡的代价”。

另外，第一句中的since为连接词，“因为”之意。

此段解惑来自微信学习群，感谢里面的高手。

alongside: by the side of; side by side with 在…旁边；与…并排

have less room to do sth 有更少的机会做某事

medium term GDP forecasts 中期GDP预测

violent demonstration 暴力示威游行

In aggregate 总计；合计

Rich places, such as America and Britain, are no strangers to incompetence and turmoil. But disappointment has hit emerging economies especially hard. In the early 2000s they buzzed with talk of “catch-up”: the idea that poorer countries could prosper by absorbing foreign technology, investing in manufacturing and opening up their economies to trade, as a handful of East Asian tiger economies had done a generation earlier. Wall Street coined the term BRICs to celebrate Brazil, Russia, India and China—the world economy’s new superstars.

像美国和英国这样的发达国家对于无能和混乱并不陌生。但失望对新兴经济体的打击尤为沉重。21世纪初，他们谈论着“追赶”：贫穷国家可以吸收外国的技术、投资制造业以及开放贸易实现繁荣，就如亚洲四小龙早在一代人之前所做的那样。华尔街创造了术语“金砖四国”，来赞美巴西、俄罗期、印度和中国 — 世界经济的新巨星。

incompetence|ɪnˈkɒmpɪtəns; 美 -ˈkɑ:m-| 无能力；不胜任；不称职

turmoil|ˈtɜ:mɔɪl; 美 ˈtɜ:rm-| 动乱；骚动；混乱；焦虑

Be no strangers to...对……并不陌生

prosper 繁荣，兴旺

Buzz with 充满兴奋地；嗡嗡地

a handful of 一把，少数

coin the term 创造/设计了此术语

BRICS 金砖国家

Tiger economies 小龙经济（尤指新加坡，韩国等较小的东亚国家飞跃的经济）

East Asian tiger economies 亚洲四小龙：是指自1960年代末至1990年代期间，亚洲四个发展迅速的经济体：韩国、中国台湾、中国香港和新加坡。亚洲四小龙在1970年代之前以农业和轻工业为主导，1970－1990年代经济发展高速。它们利用发达国家向发展中国家转移劳动密集型产业的机会，吸引外国大量的资金和技术，利用本地廉价而良好的劳动力优势，适时调整经济发展策略而发展迅速，成为亚洲继日本后的发达国家和地区，其成功的经济发展过程和经验是发展经济学研究的典型例子。1997年亚洲金融风暴后，随着国际经济情势的发展变迁，此名词已较少使用。

For a while, catch-up worked. The proportion of countries where the level of economic output per head was growing faster than in America rose from 34% in the 1980s to 82% in the 2000s. The implications were momentous. Poverty fell. Multinational companies pivoted away from the boring old West. In geopolitics catch-up promised a new multipolar world in which power was more evenly distributed.

有一段时间，追赶起效了。人均经济产口水平增长速度高于美国的国家比例，从20世纪80年代的34%上升到21世纪初的82%。影响是巨大的。贫困下降。跨国公司不再单独依靠乏味破旧的西方国家。在边缘政治方面，追赶有望形成一个权力分配更加平均的新多极化世界。

economic output 经济产出；经济产量

per head 人均

Momentous 重要的；重大的

Pivot n.中心；中枢；v.旋转；看……而定

pivot on sth 取决于某中心或要点

pivot away from 从......转出来；不再单一地依靠……

implication|ˌɪmplɪˈkeɪʃn| 可能的影响（或作用、结果）

momentous|məˈmentəs; 美 moʊˈm-| 关键的；重要的；重大的

Evenly 平均地

multipolar world 多极世界

This golden age now looks as if it has come to a premature end. In the 2010s the share of countries catching up fell to 59%. China has defied many doomsayers and there have been quieter Asian success stories such as Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. But Brazil and Russia have let down the BRICs and, as a whole, Latin America, the Middle East and sub-Saharan Africa are falling further behind the rich world. Even emerging Asia is catching up more slowly than it was.

现在看来，黄金时代似乎已经过早结束了。21世纪10年代，“追赶”国家的占比下降至59%。我们不受许多悲观论者的影响。越南，菲律宾，马来西亚等亚洲也有较为平静的成功故事。但是巴西和俄罗斯已让“金砖四国”失望，整体而言，拉丁美洲，中东，撒哈拉以南非洲国家进一步落后于发达国家。甚至新兴的亚洲（国家）也比过去追赶得更慢。

come to a premature end 提前/过早的结局；提前结束

Defy 不为所动；不受…的影响；经受得住或顶得住

doomsayer 灾难预言者

premature|ˈpremətʃə(r); 美 ˌpri:məˈtʃʊr; -ˈtʊr| 未成熟的；过早的；提前的

quieter 安静的，不显眼的

let down 使失望；失信

fall further behind 进一步落后于

Bad luck has played a part. The commodity boom of the 2000s fizzled out, global trade stagnated after the financial crisis and bouts of exchange-rate turbulence caused turmoil. But so has complacency as countries have come to think that fast growth was preordained. In many places basic services such as education and health care have been neglected. Crippling problems have been left unfixed, including South Africa’s idle power plants, India’s rotten banks and Russia’s corruption. Instead of defending liberal institutions, such as central banks and the courts, politicians have used them for their own gain.

坏运气起了一定作用。21世纪头十年的大宗商品繁荣已经消退，金融危机后全球贸易停滞不前，汇率波动引发动荡。但是随着各国开始认为快速增长是命中注定的，自满也起了一定作用。在许多国家，教育和医疗等基础服务被忽视。严重问题一直未能解决，包括南非闲置的发电厂，印度腐败的银行，俄罗期的贪污腐败。政客们不是保护央行和法院等自由机构，而是利用它们谋取私利。

王不留（wbliu85）注：But so has complacency as countries have come to think that fast growth was preordained.是不是发现没有主语？因为so has complacency是个倒装句，正常语序为complacency has so。so又怎么翻译？这要结全上下文，看本段第一句Bad luck has played a part. 所以 so 指代的是a part.即“自满也起了一定作用”。本句as后面引导的是原因状语从句，解释说明“so has complacency”。

commodity|kəˈmɒdəti; 美 -ˈmɑ:d-| 商品

Fizzle out 消失；（顺利开始）结果失败，终成泡影；虎头蛇尾

stagnate|stægˈneɪt; 美 ˈstægneɪt| 停滞；不发展；不进步

exchange rate turbulence 汇率波动

complacency 自满

preordained|ˌpri:ɔ:ˈdeɪnd; 美 -ɔ:rˈd-| 命中注定的；上天安排的

idle: not in use or operation 闲置的；不在使用或运用中的

What happens next? One risk is an emerging-market economic crisis as interest rates in America rise. Fortunately most emerging economies are less brittle than they were, because they have floating exchange rates and rely less on foreign-currency debt. Long-running political crises are a bigger worry. Research suggests that protests suppress the economy, which leads to further discontent—and that the effect is more marked in emerging markets.

接下来会发生什么？一个风险是随着美国利率的提高，新兴市场的经济危机。幸运的是，大多数新兴经济体都没有以前那么脆弱了，因为他们实行浮动汇率制，更少依赖外币债务。长期的政治危机是一个更大的担忧。研究表明抗议活动抑制经济，导致了进一步不满，而且，新兴市场受影响更大。

Floating exchange rate 浮动汇率：浮动汇率是指在纸币制度下，一国货币的对外币值，依据外汇市场上的供求状况,任其自由涨落,对汇率的波动幅度不予固定。国际上现行的汇率制度就是浮动汇率制。

Foreign-currency debt 外币债务

The effect is more marked in ......受影响更大

interest rate 利率

brittle: hard but easily broken; fragile; easily damaged; insecure 硬而易碎的; 脆弱的；容易损坏的; 不安全的

long-running 长期存在的；持续时间长的

suppress 镇压；抑制

Discontent 不满

Even if emerging economies avoid chaos, the legacy of covid-19 and rising protectionism could condemn them to a long period of slower growth. Many of their people will remain unvaccinated until well into 2022. Long-term productivity could be lowered as a result of so many children having missed school.

即使新兴经济体避免了混乱，新冠疫情的遗留问题及日益抬头的贸易保护主义可能会使它们陷入长期的低速增长。新兴经济体中的许多人在2022年之前，仍不会接种疫苗。由于许多孩子无法上学，长期生产力可能会降低。

condemn sb to 把某人置于困境

Long-term productivity 长期生产力

Trade may also become harder. C is turning inward, away from the broadly open policies that made it richer. If that continues, C will never be the vast source of consumer demand for the poor world that America has been for C in recent decades.

贸易也变得更加困难。C国正转向国内，远离使其更富裕的全面开放政策。如果这种情况持续下去，近几十年，C国永远不会像美国近几十年对C国那样，成为贫穷国家消费需求的巨大来源。

王不留（wbliu85）注：《经济学人》杂志的评论常带有一定偏见。请辩证看问题。

The West’s increasing protectionism will also limit export opportunities for foreign producers which, in any case, will be less advantageous as manufacturing becomes less labour-intensive. Unfortunately, rich countries are unlikely to make up for it by liberalising trade in services, which would open up other paths to growth. And they may fail to help exposed economies such as Bangladesh—a success story—adapt to climate change.

西方日益抬头的贸易保护主义也将限制外国生产商的出口机会，不管怎样，随着制造业劳动密集型程度的不断降低，外国生产商的出口机会也不再占优势。不幸的是，发达国家不大可能通过服务贸易自由化弥补这一损失，而这将为经济增长开辟其它途径。孟加拉国是一个成功发展的例子，但发达国家可能无法帮助像孟加拉国这样有风险的经济体适应气候变化。

In any case 无论如何；不管怎样

labor-intensive: requiring or having a large expenditure of labor in comparison to capital 劳动密集型的：要求或需要使用大量人力的，以与资本密集型相对

advantageous to sb: profitable; beneficial 有利的; 有益的

Make up for 弥补

liberalize trade in services 服务贸易自由化

open up 开放

Exposed 易受攻击的；风险高的

Exposed economies 有风险的经济体；有风险的国家

Faced with this grim landscape, emerging markets may themselves be tempted to abandon open trade and investment. That would be a grave error. An unforgiving global environment makes it even more important for them to stick to policies that work. Turkey’s notion that raising interest rates causes inflation has been disastrous; Venezuela’s pursuit of socialism has been ruinous; and banning foreign firms from adding customers, as India just has with Mastercard, is self-defeating. When catching up is hard, those emerging markets which stay open will have the best chance.

面对严峻的形势，新兴市场可能自身也会忍不住放弃开放贸易与投资。这将是一个严重的错误。对它们来说，无情的全球环境使坚持行之有效的政策变得更为重要。土耳其关于加息导致通胀的观点是灾难性的；委内瑞拉对社会主义的追求是毁灭性的；像印度对待万事达信用卡那样，禁止外国公司增加客户的做法是弄巧成拙的。当追赶困难时，那些保持开放的新兴市场将有最好的机会。

grim landscape 严峻的局面

grim: unrelenting; rigid 严峻的；无情的；严厉的

Landscape 可以指国际环境

be tempted to 受诱惑做某事；忍不住做某事

Unforgiving 无情的；不宽仁的

stick to 坚持，遵守

notion that: idea or belief; concept 观念; 信念; 概念

ruinous 灾难性的

Mastercard 万事达卡-信用卡

self-defeating 弄巧成拙的；使自己失败的；计划与目标背道而驰的

Catch up, don’t give up

追，别放弃

Some rules have changed: universal access to digital technologies is now vital, as is an adequate social safety-net. But the principles of how to get rich remain the same today as they ever were. Stay open to trade, compete in global markets and invest in infrastructure and education. Before the liberal reforms of recent decades, economies were diverging. There is time yet to avoid a return to the needless hardship of old.

有些规则已经改变：普及数字技术现在至关重要，一个健全的社会保障体系也至关重要。但如果致富的原则如今与过去一样没有改变。保持贸易开放，在全球市场上竞争，投资基础设施和教育。在近几十年的自由改革之前，各国经济处于分化状态。避免再去过那种不必要的苦日子，现在还来得及。

universal access to digital technologies 普及数字技术

an adequate social safety-net 健全的社会保障体系

economies were diverging 各国经济正在分化

There is time yet to do sth. 现在还来得及...

a return to the needless hardship of old 再去过那种不必要的苦日子

“王不留说”

突如其来的新冠疫情，持续反复又长久，让饱经风霜的世界难受其重。各国面对受挫的经济，也是尽显人性百态。有钱的疯狂发，温饱的求内生，没钱的打砸抢。

在这个地球村之下，大家本是同林鸟，可是，大难来时各自飞。发达国家经济放缓，谁又会理睬那些只求生存的小国。

下载对应的《经济学人》杂志，可参见文章“《经济学人》2021年7月31日刊精彩文章导读及资源免费下载”。

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