我国区域降水量与海拔高度关系的统计分析

摘 要

近年来，随着气候变化程度的增加，全球的平均气温逐渐变暖，其负面的影响已逐渐凸显。我国一些地区气候出现了异常，比如一些地区旱涝频繁增加，农业气候灾害严重；北方河流径流量减少，水资源短缺趋于严重；海平面升高，沿海城市和土地受到威胁；生态系统受到威胁，生物多样性趋于减少，部分地区荒漠化加剧等等。这些都表明了探讨和分析气候变化的重要性。降水量是气候变化研究的重要气象要素之一，而与降水量息息相关的一个重要因素就是海拔，因此研究降水量与海拔之间的空间变化模式具有重要的参考价值。

本文主要在收集全国664个气象站点气象资料的基础上利用最近发展起来的非参数光滑技术研究我国区域降水量和海拔高度的空间特征。即利用每个站点的年降水量数据探究降水量和海拔高度之间是否存在关系以及存在着什么样的关系的问题。具体来说，首先对每个站点的逐日降水量以及与之相关的变量的逐日观测数据进行处理，求得该站点的年均降水量以及与之相关的变量的年均值。其次，利用众多投影方法中常用的高斯-吕克格投影方法将原始数据的经纬度坐标转化为我国1980坐标系下的平面坐标。再次，利用具有诸多优良性质的局部线性估计方法对上述数据进行统计分析。最后利用Surfer软件将上述数据的分析结果以等值线的形式展示出来，并对其进行合理的解释和分析。

关键字：空间变系数回归模型，局部线性地理加权估计，交叉确认方法,降水量

Statistical analysis of the spatial variations between the annual precipitation and altitude

ABSTRACT

In recent years, along with climate change increases, the average global temperature gradually is becoming warm and its negative effects have been gradually obvious. In some regions of China, climate abnormality has occurred such as drought and flood frequently increases, agricultural climate disasters seriously; the northern rivers runoff reduction, shortage of water natural resources tends to be serious; sea-level rise, coastal city and land under threat; ecosystem is threatened, biodiversity tends to decrease, partial area desertification development etc. All these indicate that the discussion and analysis of the importance of climate change. Precipitation is one of the important meteorological factors in the research of climate change and the altitude is its most relevant factor. So the study of the relationship between the precipitation and elevation on the studied range has become an important problem.

Based on the 664 meteorological stations and the observations of the precipitation and its associated covariates, this article focuses on studying the spatial variation between the annual precipitation and altitude over the mainland China with the recently developed local linear geographically weighted regression technique. Specifically, we first use the observations