数学建模18年美赛题目

2018 MCM

英文原题

Problem C: Energy Production

Background: Energy production and usage are a major portion of any economy. In the United States, many aspects of energy policy are decentralized to the state level. Additionally, the varying geographies and industries of different states affect energy usage and production. In 1970, 12 western states in the U.S. formed the Western Interstate Energy Compact (WIEC), whose mission focused on fostering cooperation between these states for the development and management of nuclear energy technologies. An interstate compact is a contractual arrangement made between two or more states in which these states agree on a specific policy issue and either adopt a set of standards or cooperate with one another on a particular regional or national matter.

Problem: Along the U.S. border with Mexico, there are four states – California (CA), Arizona (AZ), New Mexico (NM), and Texas (TX) – that wish to form a realistic new energy compact focused on increased usage of cleaner, renewable energy sources. Your team has been asked by the four governors of these states to perform data analysis and modeling to inform their development of a set of goals for their interstate energy compact.

The attached data file “ProblemCData.xlsx” provides in the first worksheet (“seseds”) 50 years of data in 605 variables on each of these four states’ energy production and consumption, along with some demographic and economic information. The 605 variable names used in this dataset are defined in the second worksheet (“msncodes”).

Part I:
A. Using the data provided, create an energy profile for each of the four states.
B. Develop a model to characterize how the energy profile of each of the four states has evolved from 1960 – 2009. Analyze and interpret the results of your model to address the four states’ usage of cleaner, renewable energy sources in a way that is easily understood by the governors and helps them to understand the similarities and difference between the four states. Include in your discussion possible influential factors of the similarities and differences (e.g. geography, industry, population, and climate).
C. Determine which of the four states appeared to have the “best” profile for use of cleaner, renewable energy in 2009. Explain your criteria and choice.
D. Based on the historical evolution of energy use in these states, and your understanding of the differences between the state profiles you established, predict the energy profile of each state, as you have defined it, for 2025 and 2050 in the absence of any policy changes by each governor’s office.

Part II:
A. Based on your comparison between the four states, your criteria for “best” profile, and your predictions, determine renewable energy usage targets for 2025 and 2050 and state them as goals for this new four-state energy compact.
B. Identify and discuss at least three actions the four states might take to meet their energy
compact goals.

Part III:
Prepare a one-page memo to the group of Governors summarizing the state profiles as of 2009, your predictions with regard to energy usage absent any policy changes, and your recommended goals for the energy compact to adopt.

Your submission should consist of:
 One-page Summary Sheet,
 One-page memo,
 Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 22 pages with your summary
and memo.
 Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 22-page limit and
should appear after your completed solution.

Attachments:
ProblemCData.xlsx
Includes two worksheets seseds and msncodes.

References:
State Energy Data System (SEDS) Complete Dataset through 2009 (All 50 states)
https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/state-energy-data-system-seds-complete-dataset-through2009#sec-dates

中文翻译

2018 年MCM
问题C：
背景：能源生产和使用是任何经济结构的主要部分。在美国，能源政策的许多方面分散到各个州。此外，不同州的不同地区和行业也影响能源使用和生产。
1970 年，美国西部的12 个州组成了西部州际能源协定(WIEC)，其任务重点是促进这些州在发展和管理核能技术方面的合作。州际契约是两个或两个以上的州之间的合同安排，在这两个州之间，这些州在一个具体的政策问题达成一致，并采取一套标准或就某一地区或国家事务相互合作。

问题:沿着美国与墨西哥的边界，有四个州——加利福尼亚(CA)、亚利桑那州(AZ)、新墨西哥州(NM)和德克萨斯州(TX)——希望形成一个现实的新能源契约，重点是增加清洁能源和可再生能源的使用。这些州的四位州长要求您的团队执行数据分析和建模，以便为他们的州际能源契约制定一套目标。
附件中的数据文件“ProblemCData.xlsx”在第一个工作表(“seseds”)中提供了关于这四个州的能源生产和消费的605 个变量的50 年数据，以及一些人口和经济信息。该数据集中使用的605 个变量名定义在第二个工作表(“msncodes”)中定义。

第一部分:
A. 使用提供的数据，为四个州的每个州创建一个能源配置文件。
B. 建立一个模型来描述从1960 年到2009 年四个州的能源概况如何发展。分析和解释你的模型的结果，以解决四个州使用更清洁、可再生能源的方式，这是管理者很容易理解的，并帮助他们了解四个州之间的相似和不同之处。在你的讨论中加入可能影响相似性和差异性的因素（如地理，行业，人口和气候）。
C. 确定四个州中哪一个在2009 年使用清洁能源和可再生能源时，表现出了“最佳”的形象。解释你的标准和选择。
D. 根据这些州的能源使用的历史演变，以及你对你所建立的国家概况之间差异的理解，按照你的定义，预测每个州的能源概况，在2025 年和2050 年，没有任何州长办公室的政策变化的情况下。

第二部分：
A.根据你对这四个州的比较，你的“最佳”概况的标准，以及你的预测，确定2025 年和2050 年的可再生能源使用目标，并将它们作为这个新的四州能源协定的目标。
B.确定并讨论四个州为达到能源紧凑目标可能采取的至少三项行动。

第三部分：
准备一份长达一页的总结备忘录，汇总截至2009 年的状态概况，在如果没有任何政策变化时您对能源使用情况的预测，以及您建议的能源契约目标。

您的提交应该包括：
一页汇总表，
一页备忘录，您的解决方案不超过20 页，最多22 页的摘要和备忘录。

注意：参考列表和任何附录不计入22 页限制，应在完成解决方案后出现。

附件：
ProblemCData.xlsx
包括seseds 和msncodes 两个工作表。

参考文献：
国家能源数据系统（ SEDS ）完整数据集2009 年至今（全部50 个州）
https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/state-energy-data-system-seds-complete-dataset-through-2009#sec-dates