Bear Rallies Turn Market Into a Circus

如果股市最近一波熊市反弹已经过去，那么你要坚持住：另一波反弹应该很快就会到来。道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上周收盘较此前的12年低点反弹了14%，至少暂时是这样。对历史波动状况的多方估计显示，这延续了至少是上世纪三十年代以来最为动荡的一波股市行情。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)策略师米纳克(Gerard Minack)编制的数据显示，自2007年10月这场熊市开始以来，股市曾经出现了数次大举走高的情况，标准普尔500指数反弹幅度超过15%的情况出现了三次，其中就包括最近这次反弹。这种反弹正是最低迷市场的典型特症。在1929-32年的熊市中，标准普尔指数暴跌了86%，但反弹幅度超过15%的情形出现了9次。在1937年至1942年的残酷市况中，尽管标准普尔指数最终下滑了60%，但期间股市反弹15%的情况也出现了9次。不同于以往的熊市，眼下这场熊市中的短暂反弹（也被称为“死猫跳”(dead-cat bounce)）持续时间短暂：米纳克的数据显示，平均而言，股市反弹10%和15%的维持时间分别只有8天和5天。从2008年11月到2009年1月的这轮向上行情被分割成了两波涨势，一波时间短暂幅度剧烈，另一波时间较长，但涨幅却不足15%。将两波涨势合在一起，也只相当于一波相对短暂的30天反弹势头。对那些打算逢高抛售的交易员来说，市场的这种波动令他们倍感失望：涨势常常还没有真正开始，就已经过去了。这也令投资者更难猜测市场何时才会真正触底，因为任何时间超过5天的涨势，其持续时间也仍然明显短于典型的熊市反弹。当然，随着股价变得日益低廉，市场也越来越接近触底。以过去10年的收益衡量，再消除商业周期的波动性，标准普尔指数目前的市盈率大约是13倍，明显低于历史平均水平16倍。但在以往最为低迷的熊市中，这一市盈率也曾跌破过10倍。根据耶鲁大学教授席勒(Robert Shiller)的研究，在1929-32年以及1973-74年熊市过后长达10年的时间里，这一市盈率一直没有达到过10倍的水平。这并不是说，这次的市盈率肯定会再次出现这种情况，但它们通常都会跌过头。市盈率会在多快时间内跌到上述水平，这个问题对投资者来说很重要。一种情况是，市盈率可能随着股价一次剧烈下挫而迅速下降。如果标普指数暴跌30%至530点，那么股指市盈率很快就会跌到10倍水平。这种情况可能带来恐慌，但或许就会为新的牛市铺平了道路。更有可能的情况是，市盈率会在一个较长的时间内，在经济和企业收益停止复苏的打击下逐步下滑。这种情况可能会导致更多的熊市反弹和回撤，即便企业利润开始艰难增长，股价最终也不会有太大变化。这样，此前可怕熊市中的一幕或多或少再次上演，并最终促使诸多长期投资者心灰意冷地出清股票。到了那个时候，才是真正的买入良机。Mark Gongloff相关阅读警惕假牛市 2009-03-09价值投资者也无法跑赢熊市 2009-03-04为什么现在不是熊市的结束 2009-01-12

If the latest bear-market rally in stocks already is over, stick around: Another should be on the way soon.The Dow Jones Industrial Average last week ended, at least temporarily, a seven-day, 14% rebound from a 12-year low. Thus continued the wildest ride for stocks since at least the 1930s, according to various estimates of historical volatility.Since this bear market began in October 2007, there have been several episodes of rip-roaring gains, including three S&P 500 revivals of more than 15%, including this latest bounce, according to data compiled by Morgan Stanley strategist Gerard Minack.Such rallies are fairly typical of the worst markets. The 1929-32 bear market, with the S&P down 86%, featured nine rallies of 15% or more. The grim stretch between 1937 and 1942 was punctuated by nine 15% rallies, even as the S&P ultimately shed 60%.What has been unusual about this bear market is the quickness of its dead-cat bounces: Rallies of 10% and 15% have lasted an average of just eight and five days, respectively, according to Mr. Minack's data. The bullish stretch from November 2008 to January 2009 was broken into two rallies, one that was short and sharp and another, longer one that wasn't quite 15%. Combining the two provides one relatively short 30-day bounce.Such volatility frustrates traders who want to profit from rallies, which are often over before they have barely begun. It also makes it harder to guess when a real bottom has been reached, as any rally lasting longer than five days is still much shorter than the typical bear-market bounce.As the market gets cheaper, of course,the case for a bottom gets easier to make. Measured against the past 10 years' profits, to smooth out business-cycle fluctuations, the S&P is priced about 13 times earnings, a relative bargain to its historical average of 16.But that ratio has fallen below 10 in the grimmest bear markets of the past. And it has stayed in single digits for a frustratingly long time, up to a decade following the 1929-32 and 1973-74 bear markets, according to Yale professor Robert Shiller. There is no law saying P/Es have to behave that way again, but they typically overshoot. How quickly they get there is important to investors.One way P/E ratios could fall would be with one drastic swoon in prices. A 30% plunge in the S&P to 530 would take its P/E ratio to 10 in a hurry. That would be scary but would clear the way for a new bull market.The more likely way P/E ratios could fall would be in a longer process, driven by halting recoveries in the economy and corporate profits.Those would lead to more bear-market rallies and retreats, ultimately keeping stock prices flat even as profits grind higher. That was more or less how it worked in previous terrible bear markets, eventually frustrating many long-term investors into swearing off stocks.At that point, it was a great time to buy.Mark Gongloff

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Bear Rallies Turn Market Into a Circus

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