I will be participating in a panel debate on this topic later this month, and I like preparing. As such, you can consider this article as opening up a train of thought preceding a discussion of the outlined title.

我将在本月下旬参加有关该主题的小组辩论，并且我喜欢做准备。 这样，您可以认为本文是在讨论概述标题之前打开思路的。

大流行后的未来是什么？ (What is the post-pandemic future?)

First it might be helpful to described what a pandemic is: “…an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people”.

首先，描述什么是大流行可能是有帮助的： “…一种流行病在世界范围内或在一个非常广阔的地区发生，跨越国际边界，通常影响着许多人” 。

An epidemic is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time.

流行病是指疾病在短时间内Swift传播到给定人口中的大量人群。

In that manner this assumes that there will be a vaccine at some point and that it will get work, although it will take a long time and be a transition from a large amount of widespread cases to less and hopefully none.

以这种方式，它假定在某个时候将有一种疫苗并且可以开始工作，尽管它将花费很长时间并且是从大量广泛病例到少有希望的过渡。

大流行之后和期间 (After the pandemic and during)

What I would say immediately is that there is another curve we should be worried about. This one is known to most of us as the climate crisis:

我马上要说的是，我们应该担心还有另一条曲线。 我们大多数人都将这一危机称为气候危机：

For EU one can see the conclusions from the special meeting

对于欧盟，可以看到特别会议的结论

I would stress point A2 (added bold):

我要强调点A2(加粗)：

“The plan for European recovery will need massive public and private investment at European level to set the Union firmly on the path to a sustainable and resilient recovery, creating jobs and repairing the immediate damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic whilst supporting the Union’s green and digital priorities. The MFF, reinforced by NGEU, will be the main European tool.”

“欧洲复苏计划将需要在欧洲进行大规模的公共和私人投资，以使欧盟坚定地走上可持续和有弹性的复苏之路 ，创造就业机会并修复因COVID-19大流行而造成的直接破坏，​​同时支持欧盟的绿色环保。和数字优先权 。 由NGEU加强的MFF将成为欧洲的主要工具。”

In this sense both ‘green’ and ‘digital’ priorities are important.

从这个意义上说，“绿色”和“数字”优先级都很重要。

EU announced 1.85 trillion euros with 750 billion for COVID recovery.

欧盟宣布1.85万亿欧元，其中7500亿欧元用于回收COVID 。

It is structured in the following way:

它的结构如下：

In this sense the two crises can be linked — using the crisis to assist in transitioning from damaging practices to more sustainable alternatives.

从这个意义上讲，这两种危机可以联系在一起，即利用危机协助从破坏性做法过渡到更具可持续性的替代方案。

I chose to think of this as a ‘post-pandemic and during’ approach.

我选择将其视为“大流行后和期间”方法。

弹性生产网络和价值链 (Resilient production networks and value chains)

There is a discussion of making networks more resilient by Willy C. Shih in Harvard Business Review. He is the Robert and Jane Cizik Professor of Management Practice in Business Administration at Harvard Business School.

《哈佛商业评论》的Willy C. Shih在讨论如何使网络更具弹性。 他是哈佛商学院工商管理学管理实践的罗伯特和简·齐兹克教授。

• Automation.

  自动化。

• New processing technologies.

  新的加工技术。

• Continuous-flow manufacturing.

  连续流制造。

• Additive manufacturing (AKA 3D printing).

  增材制造(AKA 3D打印)。

He talks about the dependency in supplier networks. One examples he gives is: “…production of the most advanced smartphone chips, which is concentrated in three facilities in Taiwan owned by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.”

他谈到了供应商网络中的依赖性。 他列举的一个例子是： “…生产最先进的智能手机芯片，集中在台湾半导体制造公司在台湾的三个工厂。”

Further, I would say that digital value chains needs to be reconsidered.

此外，我想说数字价值链需要重新考虑。

What are these?

这些是什么？

Servers, satellites, cables and so on — all these require a heavy amount of investment into sourcing and transporting resources as well as a great deal of maintenance. The operational cost of ‘data’ can be added to this. When I say cost I consider the cost to society and the environment to be important as a whole.

服务器，卫星，电缆等-所有这些都需要大量投资来采购和运输资源以及大量维护。 可以将“数据”的运营成本添加到其中。 当我说成本时，我认为整个社会和环境的成本都很重要。

There are books surfacing increasingly that question or challenge the responsibilities of these large international value chains / supply chain.

越来越多的书籍浮出水面，质疑或挑战这些大型国际价值链/供应链的责任。

大流行后的未来中的人工智能 (Artificial intelligence in a post-pandemic future)

Where does AI fit into this narrative?

AI在哪里适合这种叙述？

I think in an overarching manner it will be hard to avoid within a variety of areas.

我认为，在各个领域中都很难避免。

In relation to the increasing applications of AI and ML integrated into a variety of industries the computing needs in the overall digital infrastructure may shift slightly.

关于集成到各种行业中的AI和ML的不断增长的应用，整个数字基础架构中的计算需求可能会略有变化。

As such, the overall compute may change — as would be the case for the OpenAI and Microsoft supercomputer:

因此，整体计算可能会发生变化，就像OpenAI和Microsoft超级计算机一样：

Yes, we still need a great extent of nonvolatile memory (for storage of data), yet we may need more hardware that is custom built for processing data.

是的，我们仍然需要大量的非易失性存储器(用于存储数据)，但是我们可能需要更多专门为处理数据而定制的硬件。

演示地址

Particularly with new developments in compute such as the tensor processing units also to some extent known as AI accelerators. We may see larger facilities, and more of these, that are custom built to suit this purpose.

特别是随着计算的新发展，例如张量处理单元，在某种程度上也称为AI加速器。 我们可能会看到为满足此目的而定制建造的更大的设施，其中更多。

Highly advanced narrow AI will be more available in the coming years, such as is the case with GPT-3 from OpenAI that they are now openly offering on a commercial basis. Other large companies such as Amazon with voice and ownership of digital infrastructure; IBM with their large ML patent base; Google with their AI offerings and cloud; and emerging competitors within AI will be more commonly used by smaller companies.

未来几年，高度先进的窄带AI将会面市，例如OpenAI的GPT-3就是这种情况，它们现在已经在商业上公开提供。 其他大型公司，例如拥有语音和数字基础设施所有权的亚马逊； 具有丰富的ML专利基础的IBM； Google及其AI产品和云； 人工智能中的新兴竞争者将更受小型公司的青睐。

Large submarine networks of cables are increase network capacity, also in areas often considered to have lower capacity overall:

大型海底电缆网络正在增加网络容量，在通常被认为总体容量较低的地区：

Increased amounts of satellites seems likely as well, with Elon Musk’s Starlink being one example:

卫星数量似乎也有可能增加，其中之一就是埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的Starlink：

Jeff Bezoz has also mentioned that he wants to add a lot more satellites, with Amazon’s Project Kuiper — a mega constellation of 3,236 satellites:

杰夫·贝佐兹(Jeff Bezoz)还提到，他想通过亚马逊的Kuiper项目增加更多的卫星，该项目包括3236颗卫星，这是一个庞大的星座：

对人们意味着什么？ (What will it mean for people?)

At this point it is easy to loose the outline of the inquiry. I mean, I am not a shaman or fortune teller. It is impossible for me to see clearly how this will turn out.

此时，很容易松开查询的轮廓。 我的意思是，我不是巫师或算命先生。 我不可能清楚地看到结果如何。

It does seem like there will be more Internet access around the globe. With increased connectivity and speeds AI and ML may gain even easier access as edge (distributed) computing with 5G and improved TinyML expands in the coming years.

似乎全球将会有更多的Internet访问。 随着连接性和速度的提高，随着未来5G和改进的TinyML的边缘(分布式)计算的发展 ，AI和ML的访问将变得更加容易。

Still, this will be highly unequally distributed. It is important to remember that just last year a little more than half of the world had access to Internet.

尽管如此，这将是高度不均等的。 重要的是要记住，仅在去年，全球一半以上的人就可以使用Internet。

Look at 2019, and the ‘Users worldwide’:

看一下2019年以及“ 全球用户 ”：

One would think that with great spread of wi-fi comes great spread of freedom of expression. Not necessarily.

有人会认为，随着Wi-Fi的广泛传播，言论自由的广泛传播也随之而来。 不必要。

As mentioned by Vox in August 2020 the US banning of TikTok may spell more digital nationalism:

正如Vox在2020年8月提到的那样，美国禁止TikTok可能意味着更多的数字民族主义：

演示地址

Within this narrative they mention the splinternet, the fact that Russia is also building its own separated infrastructure.

在此叙述中，他们提到了splinternet ，这是俄罗斯也在建立自己的独立基础设施的事实。

In that manner more personal control of digital influence seems likely.

这样，似乎更有可能对数字影响力进行更多的个人控制。

Yet, with increasing availability of ML and AI it seems harder when state and private companies spend for influence.

但是，随着ML和AI可用性的提高，当国有企业和私营公司花力气时似乎就更难了。

Polarisation in the world and increased amount of authoritarian regimes is a trend that has been increasing as well.

世界上的两极分化和威权政体数量的增加也是一种趋势，而且这种趋势也在不断增加。

A set of worrying trends for the post-pandemic future or the near present in the coming decade.

大流行后的未来或未来十年的一系列令人担忧的趋势。

However, can we turn this trend?

但是，我们可以扭转这种趋势吗？

Will we see a better world that takes sustainability into consideration to a much greater extent when digital technologies are applied, operated and built?

在数字技术的应用，运营和构建过程中，我们是否会看到一个更可持续发展的世界？

What will the post-pandemic future hold?

大流行后的未来会怎样？

What do you think?

你怎么看？

I hope you enjoyed this article.

希望您喜欢这篇文章。

This is #500daysofAI and you are reading article 460. I am writing one new article about or related to artificial intelligence every day for 500 days.

这是＃500daysofAI，您正在阅读第460条文章。我连续500天每天都在撰写一篇有关人工智能或与人工智能有关的新文章。