Withdrawal symptoms

脱瘾症状

After the stimulus, the hangover

经济刺激计划之后所遗留下来的

Oct 7th 2010

《经济学人》2010-10-07

SOME Americans have always taken the national debt personally. During the 1940 census (according to the late David McCord Wright, an American economist) a housewife was asked if she had a mortgage on her home. "Yes," she replied. "For $40 billion."

有些美国人总是将国家债务当做个人的。在1940年的人口普查中一位家庭主妇被问到她家里是否有按揭贷款时，她回答道,”是的，有400亿美元。“。

That figure (about 40% of 1940 GDP) now seems quaint. The federal debt held by the public was $8.9 trillion in August 2010, or about 60% of GDP. Add to that the Treasury debt held by America's public-pension scheme, and the national debt reached $10 trillion back in September 2008. The extra digit obliged the national debt clock near New York's Times Square to move its dollar sign to make room.

这一数字（约占1940年GDP的40%）现在看上去很巨大。2010年8月公众所背负的联邦债务为8.9万亿美元，约占GDP的60%.再加上美国公共退休金方案所背负的国债，整个国家的负债在2008年9月达到了10万亿美元。纽约时代广场上的国家债务钟甚至被迫将其美元符号挪走，以便为多出来的数字腾出空间。

Many of today's Americans feel as indignant about the debt as that 1940s housewife did. But they are just as profligate as their government (see chart 4). Their mortgages and other debts also amount to around $13 trillion, almost 120% of their annual disposable income.

今天许多美国人和1940年那个家庭主妇一样对国家的债务感到愤慨。但实际上他们自己也和他们的政府一样肆意挥霍。他们的按揭贷款及其他债务也累计达到大约13万亿美元，几乎是他们年均可支配收入的1.2倍。

The most remarkable thing about that figure, though, is not how big it is, but that it is smaller than it was two years ago. For over 60 years after the second world war, household debt moved in only one direction: upwards. Then, in the second quarter of 2008, it started to fall—not just as a proportion of income, or after allowing for inflation, but in everyday dollars and cents. Between March 1st 2008 and June 30th 2010 households reduced their debts by $473 billion. Businesses and banks joined in later. Although the federal debt displayed on the Times Square clock is ticking remorselessly upwards, the true national debt, including households, banks and firms, is now lower than it was in the first quarter of 2009.

关于这一数字最不可思议的事情并不是它是多么的巨大，而是与两年前相比它反而减小了。二战后的60年间，家庭负债都是朝着一个方向前进的：不断上升。然而，到了2008年的第二季度，它开始下降了---不仅仅是债务与收入的比例下降，或考虑到通货膨胀后出现下降，而且日常使用的美元与美分也开始贬值。2008年3月1号到2010年6月30号之间，美国家庭累计减少了约4.73万亿美元的债务。企业和银行随之加入减少债务的行列。尽管伴随着时代广场债务钟的滴答声，联邦负债的数字依然在无情地向上增加着，但包括家庭，银行和企业的负债在内的国家债务现在已经比2009年第一季度要低许多了。

In 2008-09, for the first time since the 1930s Depression, consumer spending in real terms fell for two years in a row. Households are now saving 6% of their disposable income, compared with just 2.7% in the years before the crisis. Combined with the stockmarket's fitful rallies, this frugality has helped American households rebuild some of the wealth washed away by the recession. Their net worth is now about 490% of their disposable income, compared with just 440% in the worst months of the crisis. As a cushion against a riskier world, American households will probably try to set aside a stash of assets worth some 540-550% of their income, according to Martin Sommer of the IMF and Jirka Slacalek of the European Central Bank. If that figure is right, their balance-sheet repairs are currently only half completed.

在2008到2009年间，自从1930年经济大萧条以来，扣除物价因素后的消费支出首次连续两年出现下降。美国家庭将其可支配收入的6%用于储蓄，这与危机前仅2.7%形成鲜明的对比。再加上股市间歇性的大盘重整，这一节俭措施帮助美国家庭重新累计起因经济衰损失掉的财富。他们的净资产值现在约为其可支配收入的4.9倍，与之相比，在危机最严重的数月里只有4.4倍。据IMF的Martin Sommer和欧洲央行的Jirka Slacalek称，作为避免国家陷入更大危机的缓冲垫，美国家庭可能需要进一步加大储蓄力度，以便使其净资产值保持在其收入5.4-5.5倍左右的水平。如果这一数字是正确的，那么他们的资产预算表的修复工作目前还只能说完成了一半。

This new thrift is not confined to America. Household debt is also falling in Spain. In Britain households saved 6.3% of their disposable income in 2009 (though less in the first half of 2010), compared with 2% in 2008. Nor is the frugality limited to households. In the wake of the financial crisis, companies across the rich world have been piling up cash. Small firms have been unable, and many big firms have been unwilling, to borrow. In Japan and Britain corporate investment fell by about a quarter from peak to trough. The pace of investment has recovered somewhat, but companies are still not rushing to add new factories and machinery when so much of their existing capacity lies idle.

这种节俭的生活方式不仅局限于美国家庭。西班牙的家庭负债也在下降。在2009年每个英国家庭将其可支配收入的6。3%用于储蓄（尽管在2010年上半年有所下降），与之相比，这一比例在2008年只有2%。这种节俭之风也不仅仅局限于家庭。在金融危机复苏之际，发达国家的企业都纷纷积攒现金。小公司无力借钱给别人，而大公司更是不愿意借钱出去。在日本和英国，企业投资从峰值到低谷约下跌了25%。投资的步伐最近有所恢复，但在现有的产能仍然处于闲置的状态下，企业仍旧没有意愿去追加新的厂房和机器来扩大生产。

All told, across the OECD households and businesses are forecast to spend $2.6 trillion less than their incomes this year, the equivalent of 7% of GDP. This follows another huge private-sector surplus, of 7.2%, the year before. In 2007, by contrast, the rich world's households and businesses ran a combined deficit. This astonishing rise in private saving is the main reason why the recession was so deep and the recovery is so muted. After two years of private-sector austerity in the rich countries, the biggest macroeconomic controversy now facing their governments is whether to embrace some austerity of their own.

总之，据OECD称，家庭和企业预计支出将比其收入要少约2.6万亿美元，这一数字约为GDP的7%。这一情况是在去年私有企业出现巨大的收入盈余（7.2%）之后出现的。与之相比，在2007年，发达国家的家庭和企业都遭遇了亏损。私有储蓄方面这种令人惊奇的上升是经济衰退如此严重而复苏又如此无力的主要原因。在发达国家的私有企业中实行了长达2年的紧缩政策后，这些国家的政府所面临的宏观经济方面最大的争论是是否国家也应该采取一些财政紧缩政策。

Squirrel it away

储存下来

Squirrels save by burying nuts in the ground. In sophisticated economies, people save by amassing financial claims on someone else. Savers therefore need borrowers. In textbook economics households save and banks use those savings to lend to firms. For both households and firms to run a surplus, someone else must run a deficit. That someone else could be a foreign nation. But none of the economies outside the OECD is big enough to absorb the excess private saving of the rich world. China would have to run a current-account deficit of over 40% of GDP to offset a $2.6 trillion surplus. Even if the task were spread across all the Asian countries outside the OECD (of which Japan and South Korea are members), they would have to run deficits of over 25% each.

松鼠通过把坚果埋在地底来储藏过冬的食物。在复杂的经济体中，人们通过放债给其他人的方式来进行储蓄。因此储蓄者需要借贷者。在经济学课本中，家庭是储蓄的个体，而银行则将这些储蓄用来借贷给企业。如果家庭和企业要获得盈利，那么必须有第三方出现亏损。这个第三方可以是一个外国的国家。但是OECD之外的任何一个国家都还不足够巨大到能吸收发达世界的过剩的私有储蓄。中国要抵消2.6万亿美元的贸易顺差，就必须遭受超过GDP40%的贸易赤字。即使这一行动在所有的非OECD成员的亚洲国家得到实行，它们也必须遭受超过25%的赤字损失。

The only other possibility is governments. That is why the rich world's private surpluses have been mirrored by equally vast public deficits. Last year the OECD's governments ran a combined deficit of 7.9% of GDP, and this year it is likely to be only marginally less. Among the big economies, Britain's deficit will be the largest, at 11.5%, with America not far behind. In an accounting sense, these eye-popping deficits are simply the counterpart of private surpluses. In an economic sense, their remarkable increase is less the outcome of government profligacy than private thrift.

唯一其他的可能性在于政府。这就是为何发达国家出现私有储蓄盈余的同时，在公共领域却出现巨大的赤字。去年经合组织的各个国家累积出现了约占GDP7.9%的赤字，今年这一数字会稍微减少一点。在这些发达国家中，英国的赤字将会是最严重的，约为11。5%，紧随其后的是美国。从统计学角度来看，这些令人瞠目结舌的赤字与私有储蓄盈余是相匹配的。从经济学角度来看，这些赤字显著的增长并不是由于政府的肆意挥霍导致的，而是国民的过分节俭所产生的。

(未完待续。。。）

本文转自Phinecos(洞庭散人)博客园博客，原文链接：http://www.cnblogs.com/phinecos/archive/2010/10/28/1863759.html，如需转载请自行联系原作者

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