每日一篇——Fed Unveils Major Expansion of Market Intervention

By Nick Timiraos
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s whatever-it-takes moment arrived Monday.
The central bank signaled it would do practically anything – extending loans to big and small businesses and purchasing unlimited amounts of government debt – to help an American economy in a race against time.
After firing its arsenal at funding markets last week to prevent a public health crisis from morphing into a financial crisis, the Fed said it would throw another kitchen sink this week at credit markets that have broken down. The central bank unveiled a new generation of lending facilities to prevent a liquidity crunch from turning into a solvency crisis for American businesses.
“This is the first time they’ve really basically turned into a commercial bank instead of a central bank,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan.
The central bank’s announcement came as lawmakers on Capitol Hill debated a plan to help reload the Fed’s weaponry. The Trump administration and Senate Republicans proposed Sunday providing $425 billion to the U.S. Treasury that could be used to expand the kind of lending programs the Fed unveiled Monday. The bill hit a procedural roadblock after Democrats said it needed to do more to aid individuals facing unemployment or lack of income.
Monday’s announcement was “really encouraging because the Fed didn’t wait for Congress to pass this bill,” said Tiffany Wilding, economist at Pacific Investment Management Co. “I don’t think the markets could have waited.”
The central bank punctuated its moves, announced 90 minutes before markets in the U.S. opened Monday, with an unusually explicit warning about the perils ahead.
“It has become clear that our economy will face severe disruptions,” the Fed said in its statement Monday morning. “Aggressive efforts must be taken across the public and private sectors to limit the losses to jobs and incomes and to promote a swift recovery once the disruptions abate.”
Stock futures briefly rallied after the Fed announced its latest steps, but stocks traded lower after markets opened. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell from 0.805% just before the announcement to less than 0.69% afterward. Yields closed at 0.763%.
“Even after today’s announcement, we’ve seen a lot of selling, and there will be a lot of selling to come, and the Fed, as a buyer, has given investors that opportunity,” said Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley.
The latest actions show how Mr. Powell has rapidly adopted the crisis-fighting posture that his predecessor, Ben Bernanke, employed in the fall of 2008, during the financial crisis, and that then-European Central Bank President Mario Draghi deployed in 2012, as strains in Europe’s sovereign-debt markets threatened the continent’s common currency.
“The Fed has done almost everything in its power,” said Scott Minerd, chief investment officer at money manager Guggenheim Partners LLC. “They are rolling this stuff out as fast as they can.”
President Trump, who has frequently attacked Mr. Powell and bemoaned the strength of the dollar, said he called the Fed chairman on Monday to compliment him. “I said, ‘Jerome, you’ve done a really good job.’ I was proud of him. That took courage,” he said.
The Fed already has moved further and faster than it did in late 2008, when the failure of Lehman Brothers sparked a financial panic that aggravated an economy slowing under the weight of a bursting housing bubble. The actions announced Monday to lend to large and small American businesses take the central bank well past the playbook it used in 2008, when it was focused primarily on preventing financial institutions from failing.
The current situation is different and in some respects more dire than in 2008 because of the hard stop to economic activity across the country.
The Fed’s latest lending facilities essentially bypass the banking sector and Wall Street dealers, which the Fed has flooded with cheap loans – so far to little effect. “The dealers and banks are supposed to intermediate markets, and they’re just not able to do it,” said Ms. Wilding of Pimco.
The big question now is how quickly the Fed, working with the Treasury Department and awaiting a potential infusion of funds from Congress, can limit a deepening working-capital crunch moving across the economy.
Once the facilities are launched, officials are likely to face tricky questions about how much farther to intervene in credit markets that remain in rotten shape, especially those for longer-dated municipal debt and riskier corporate credit.
While the Fed can’t directly purchase private-sector assets or longer-dated municipal debt, it has sweeping authorities that it has now invoked six times in the past week to lend on a broad basis during emergencies. These so-called 13(3) authorities are named for the section of its charter that authorizes this activity.
Still, there are limits to how far the Fed can go. The loans must be well secured, and the Fed often seeks a backstop from the U.S. Treasury when its lending could lead to significant credit losses, which it received for three lending facilities announced Monday and two others unveiled last week.
Economists now expect the economy to experience a severe downturn. Morgan Stanley expects the economy to contract at a 30% annualized rate in the April-to-June quarter, after a 2.4% contraction in the current quarter, which it said would send the unemployment rate to 12.8% this spring – the highest on records that date to 1948.
Among the actions announced Monday, the Fed said that the purchases of Treasury and mortgage securities that it approved one week ago are essentially unlimited and that it would buy $375 billion in Treasury securities and $250 billion in mortgage securities this week.
By point of comparison, the Fed will buy more government-backed debt this week than it did during a controversial round of asset purchases, called quantitative easing or QE, that it undertook between November 2010 and June 2011, when it bought $600 billion in securities.
One week ago, the Fed cut its benchmark rate to near zero and said it would purchase at least $700 billion in Treasury and mortgage securities. It quickly bought hundreds of billions of dollars of securities, prompting Monday’s announcement to underscore the open-ended nature of potential purchases.
The action will swell the Fed’s balance sheet this week beyond the $4.5 trillion peak reached in 2014, when it ended its final QE program. To support the market for multifamily housing, the central bank said would begin purchasing commercial mortgage-backed securities issued by government-supported entities.
The Fed announced three new lending facilities to unclog credit markets with $30 billion in support from the Treasury, which officials said would enable $300 billion in financing.
The first of these includes the crisis-era Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, which the central bank in 2008 used to support consumer and business credit markets. The Fed will lend money to investors to buy securities backed by credit-card loans and other consumer debt.
Two new facilities will support lending for large companies, an unprecedented step for the Fed. One will address the lack of new financing in the roughly $6 trillion market for highly rated corporate debt by offering bridge loans for up to four years. That program includes limits on the payment of dividends and stock buybacks for firms that defer interest payments on their loans.
A second facility is aimed at unblocking the market for existing corporate debt, allowing the Fed to purchase bonds already issued by highly rated companies and eligible exchange-traded funds, which have around $147 billion in investment-grade corporate debt.
“It’s a step in the right direction, but so far the facilities are relatively small,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs. “More would be better.”
The Fed said it would soon roll out a Main Street Business Lending Program that will support lending to eligible small and midsize businesses. Such a program is likely to depend on additional money from the Treasury Department, and the Fed didn’t provide details about it Monday.
In a statement Monday, Mr. Mnuchin said he expected to increase the Treasury’s support of the newly unveiled lending facilities should Congress provide the type of funding outlined in the current Senate bill.
“If it comes to fruition, this would be very powerful because $425 billion in loss protection is enormous,” said Roberto Perli, a former Fed economist who is now an analyst at research firm Cornerstone Macro.
Any action by Congress would also confer an important signal of political support for the Fed. While the central bank is operationally independent, its autonomy can be curtailed by lawmakers if they decide the Fed has misused its authorities. For example, after the Fed used its 13(3) powers in 2008 to rescue individual financial institutions, Congress barred the Fed from doing so again.
House Democrats unveiled legislation Monday afternoon that would give $50 billion to the Treasury as first-loss capital for the Fed’s small-business lending facility.
That legislation would also allow the Fed, which can only buy state and local government debt with maturities of six months or less, to buy longer-dated municipal securities. It would additionally require the Fed to establish a facility to fund coronavirus-related municipal debt issued through June 2021.
The Fed announced changes to two lending programs unveiled last week. One aims to unclog dysfunctional markets for short-term corporate IOUs called commercial paper, which will now be open to include highly-quality, short-term debt issued by states and local governments.
Another seeks to prevent runs on money-market funds, which investors generally treat as safe as cash. The Fed expanded this program to include certain municipal money-market funds on Friday, and on Monday said it would include a wider range of securities, including around $50 billion in municipal variable-rate demand notes and $280 billion in bank certificates of deposit.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com

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美联储暗示，为帮助美国经济赢得与时间的赛跑，美联储将采取几乎任何举措，包括向各类大小企业发放贷款、无限量购买国债等。

在上周为防止一场公共卫生危机演变成一场金融危机而出手支持融资市场之后，美联储周一表示，本周将再次尽其所能，为已经出现问题的信贷市场提供支持。美联储公布了新一批贷款安排，以防止流动性紧缩演变称一场美国企业的偿付能力危机。

摩根大通(JPMorgan)首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli称∶“可以说这是美联储首次真的转变成了一家商业银行，而不是央行。”

美联储发布上述声明的背景是，美国国会议员正在讨论一项帮助补充美联储政策弹药的计划。特朗普(Donald Trump)政府和共和党参议员周日提议向美国财政部提供4,250亿美元，这些资金可能被用于扩大美联储周一公布的这类贷款计划。由于民主党参议员表示该法案需要提出更多措施来帮助那些面临失业或缺少收入的个人，该法案在流程中遇阻。

品浩(Pacific Investment Management Co.)经济学家Tiffany Wilding表示，周一宣布的举措真的很鼓舞人心，因为美联储没有等国会通过这项法案再行动。Wilding称∶“我认为市场没时间等了。”

美联储在美国股市周一开盘90分钟前宣布了上述举措，并对未来存在的风险发出了异常明确的警告。

美联储在周一上午的声明中表示，“很明显，我们的经济将面临严重干扰。”美联储还称∶“必须在公共和私营部门采取积极举措，以限制就业和收入损失，并在干扰减弱后促进经济快速复苏。”

美联储宣布最新举措后，美国股指期货一度短暂反弹，但美国股市在开盘后还是走低。基准10年期美国国债收益率从这些举措宣布前的0.805%跌至0.69%以下，收盘报0.763%。

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席美国经济学家Ellen Zentner称∶“即便在今日宣布上述举措后，我们仍看到了许多抛盘，而且今后还会出现大量的抛售，而美联储作为买家，给了投资者这样的机会。”

美联储的最新行动表明，鲍威尔迅速采用了他的前任伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在2008年秋天金融危机时期采用过的应对立场，与2012年时任欧洲央行行长德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在欧债危机威胁欧元稳定时部署过的策略也一脉相承。

资产管理公司Guggenheim Partners LLC首席投资长Scott Minerd表示，美联储几乎已竭尽所能，正在以最快的速度推出救助方案。

美国总统特朗普(Trump)表示，周一他致电美联储主席对他表示赞赏，称他做得很好，为他感到骄傲，并表示此举是需要勇气的。此前特朗普经常抨击鲍威尔，并抱怨美元强势。

与2008年末的金融危机相比，这一次美联储走得更远，速度也更快。当年雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)倒闭引发了金融恐慌，使房地产泡沫破裂导致的经济放缓进一步加剧。与当年专注于防止金融机构破产相比，周一宣布的向大小企业提供贷款的举措远胜于蓝。

考虑到全美经济活动骤停，当前的情况又与2008年不同，在某些方面甚至更加严重。

美联储最新的贷款安排等于是绕过了银行和华尔街交易商，此前美联储一直向银行和华尔街交易商提供大量低息贷款，但迄今为止收效甚微。太平洋投资管理公司的Wilding说，这些交易商和银行应该在市场中起到桥梁作用，但他们没有做到。

现在的一个大问题是，在与美国财政部合作、同时等待美国国会潜在资金注入的情况下，美联储能以多快的速度遏制不断加深的运营资本紧缩情况蔓延至整个经济。

一旦这些安排启动，官员们可能会面临棘手问题，这些问题涉及，对于仍陷于困境的信贷市场、尤其是期限较长的市政债券市场和风险较高的企业债券市场，美联储还能进行多大程度的进一步干预。

虽然美联储不能直接购买私营部门资产或期限较长的市政债券，但却拥有广泛权力，过去一周美联储已六次动用这些权力在紧急情况下提供各类贷款。这些所谓的13(3)权力是以美联储章程中授权这一举措的章节而命名的。

不过，美联储的能力也不是无限的。这些贷款必须有良好的担保，当美联储放贷可能导致严重的信贷损失时，美联储通常会向美国财政部寻求担保。美联储周一宣布的三个贷款安排和上周公布的另外两个贷款安排都得到了这种担保。

经济学家现在预计美国经济将经历一次严重的下滑。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预计，在本季度收缩2.4%后，第二季度美国经济折合成年率将收缩30%，今年春季的失业率将升至12.8%，创下1948年以来的最高纪录。

在周一宣布的行动中，美联储称，一周前批准的购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的举措实质上是不限量的，并且美联储本周将购买3,750亿美元美国国债和2,500亿美元抵押贷款支持证券。

美联储本周购买政府支持债券的规模将超过此前实施量化宽松政策期间的资产购买规模。当时美联储在2010年11月至2011年6月期间购买了6,000亿美元证券。

一周前，美联储将基准利率降至接近零的水平，并表示将购买至少7,000亿美元美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券。美联储迅速购买了数千亿美元证券，这促使美联储周一强调潜在购买举措是无限量的。

这一行动将使美联储本周的资产负债表规模超过2014年达到的4.5万亿美元峰值，当时美联储结束了最后一次量化宽松计划。为了支持多单元住房市场，该央行表示，将开始购买由政府支持的实体发行的商业抵押贷款支持证券。

美联储宣布了三项新的贷款安排，以疏通信贷市场，财政部提供了300亿美元的支持，官员们表示，这将启动规模3,000亿美元的融资。

第一个包括危机时代的定期资产支持证券贷款工具(TALF)，美联储曾在2008年用该工具来支持消费者和商业信贷市场。美联储将借钱给投资者，让他们购买由信用卡贷款和其他消费者债务支持的证券。

两项新的安排将为大公司提供融通支持，这对美联储来说是史无前例的一步。其中一个将通过提供最长四年的过桥贷款来解决规模约6万亿美元高评级公司债市场缺乏新融资的问题。该计划包括对推迟支付贷款利息的公司限制股息支付和股票回购。

第二项安排旨在疏通现有公司债市场，允许美联储购买高评级公司已发行的债券和符合条件的交易所交易基金(ETF)，此类基金在投资级公司债领域的投资约为1,470亿美元。

高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家Jan Hatzius称∶“这是朝著正确方向迈出的一步，但到目前为止，此类安排的规模相对较小。”他表示∶“再大一些就更好了。”

美联储称，将很快推出一项大众商业贷款项目(Main Street Business Lending Program)，支持向符合条件的中小型企业放贷。这样的项目可能取决于财政部的额外资金，美联储周一没有提供相关细节。

姆努钦在周一的一份声明中表示，如果国会提供当前参议院法案中提出的资金，他预计财政部将加大对新推出的贷款安排的支持。

前美联储经济学家、现研究机构Cornerstone Macro分析师Roberto Perli称∶“如果上述安排落实，效力将非常强大，因为4,250亿美元的损失保护能发挥巨大作用。”

By Nick Timiraos; Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com

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