By Sarah Ponczek

莎拉·庞塞克(Sarah Ponczek)

Are you young, newly rich from stock trading and ready to take the plunge in options? Wall Street is following your every move.

您是年轻的，刚刚从股票交易中致富的人并且准备承受期权的暴跌吗？ 华尔街正在关注您的一举一动。

With the sway of stay-at-home traders growing and starting to eclipse other influences on equities, figuring out who is doing what among amateur stock dabblers has become a critical mission for big investors. They’re canvassing Reddit threads like r/wallstreetbets and picks at retail brokerages, plugging data into programs and trying to gain an edge.

随着留在家中的交易者日益增多，并开始超越其他对股票的影响，弄清楚谁在做业余散布股票的人中的工作已成为大投资者的关键任务。 他们在零售经纪人处调查诸如r / wallstreetbets和picks之类的Reddit线程，将数据插入程序并试图获得优势。

While alternative data has been a buzzword for years, demand has exploded in 2020. First it was Covid-19 infection charts and travel and dining trends. Now it’s intel on what retail investors are doing with their cash. As their heft in markets has grown, individuals have morphed into a force Wall Street can’t afford to ignore.

尽管替代数据多年来一直是流行语，但需求在2020年激增。首先是Covid-19感染图表以及旅行和就餐趋势。 现在，这是散户投资者现金处理方式的信息。 随着市场占有率的提高，个人已经演变成华尔街不可忽视的力量。

“When you see episodes in the market, heavy bouts of buying or selling, it’s important to know where they’re coming from and why,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial Inc., who admits she checks sites like Twitter.com often to gauge retail trends. “Ultimately, retail investors have an effect on the market.”

保德信金融(Prudential Financial Inc.)首席市场策略师昆西·克罗斯比(Quincy Krosby)表示：“当您看到市场上的事件，大量的买卖时，了解它们的来源和原因很重要。”他承认，她检查了Twitter等网站.com通常会评估零售趋势。 “最终，散户投资者会对市场产生影响。”

Lured by zero fees and probably boredom while stuck at home during the pandemic, retail investors have flocked to stocks. They now account for 20% of equity trading, according to an analysis by Bloomberg Intelligence’s Larry Tabb, making them the second-largest group of investors in the market.

在大流行期间，零费用吸引着人们，并可能在呆在家里时感到无聊，散户投资者蜂拥而至。 根据彭博资讯(Bloomberg Intelligence)的拉里·塔布(Larry Tabb)的分析，他们现在占股票交易的20％，使其成为市场上第二大投资者。

Not only are they trading cash equities, they’ve also become a formidable presence in options, where frenetic buying forces dealers to hedge, whipping up stocks further. Amid significantly higher options volume generally, one lot trades — smaller ones often done by retail clients — have more than doubled to 12% of total options volume in 2020, according to Chris Murphy, Susquehanna International Group’s co-head of derivatives strategy.

他们不仅交易现金股票，而且还成为期权的强大后盾，狂热的购买迫使交易商进行套期保值，进一步鞭打股票。 Susquehanna International Group衍生产品策略联席主管克里斯·墨菲(Chris Murphy)表示，在总体上看涨期权数量大的情况下，到2020年，一手交易(较小的交易通常由零售客户完成)已占到期权总交易量的12％以上，翻了一番。

“In terms of how important is that flow? It’s twice as important. It’s significantly more important,” Murphy said by phone.

“就流程的重要性而言？ 这是重要的两倍。 这非常重要。”墨菲在电话中说。

Signs of retail interest abounded for Tesla Inc., including at Robinhood, as early as July before the shares staged an 80% run. A Goldman Sachs basket of stocks most popular with individual investors is up 40% this year and has surged 90% since March lows, more than the price gains for both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500.

早在7月，特斯拉公司就出现了零售兴趣的迹象，包括在Robinhood的罗宾汉(Robinhood)，股价上涨了80％。 高盛(Goldman Sachs)一篮子股票今年以来上涨了40％，自三月份的低点以来已飙升了90％，超过了纳斯达克100和标准普尔500指数的价格涨幅。

Benn Eifert, chief investment officer of hedge fund QVR Advisors, points to the r/wallstreetbets thread on Reddit, which boasts 1.5 million users — “degenerates,” using the site’s own nomenclature.

对冲基金QVR Advisors的首席投资官Benn Eifert指出Reddit上的r / wallstreetbets线程，该站点拥有150万用户，使用网站自己的术语“退化”。

“There are influencers within that community that will say, ‘Alright, today we’re buying the Tesla $2500 calls for next Friday,’ and the volumes that will print are huge,” Eifert said in an interview on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast. “And you better believe that the most sophisticated options players in the world — the Susquehannas and Citadel Securities — are extremely focused on this flow and predicting it in real-time.”

埃弗特在彭博社(Bloomberg's Odd Lots)播客上接受采访时说：“该社区中有影响力的人会说，'好吧，今天我们要为特斯拉购买2500美元的电话，要求下周五进行拍卖。” “而且您最好相信，世界上最复杂的期权参与者-Susquehannas和Citadel Securities-非常关注这种流量并实时进行预测。”

There are plenty of examples of websites and platforms that attempt to scan r/wallstreetbets to create alert systems. A page on Medium.com — an online publishing platform — is dedicated to “Momentum Trading off Sentiment from r/wallstreetbets.” A blog post on a website called algotrading101.com reads “Web Scraping Tutorial — Reddit Data for Finance.”

有许多尝试扫描r / wallstreetbets创建警报系统的网站和平台的示例。 在线发布平台Medium.com上的页面专门用于“从r / wallstreetbets中权衡情感的动量”。 网站algotrading101.com上的博客文章中写道：“ Web爬网教程— Reddit Data for Finance”。

“We have plenty of people that have tried to leverage Wall Street Bets in some form or another for opportunity, for profit,” said Jaime Rogozinski, the thread’s founder. “Some shady, some legal, some blatantly illegal.”

“我们有很多人试图以某种形式利用华尔街赌注来谋取机会，以谋取利益，”该线程的创始人Jaime Rogozinski说。 “有些黑幕，有些合法，有些公然违法。”

As an institutional sales trader, Susquehanna’s Murphy tracks retail trends in options and supplies it to clients, alongside other research. He tends toward classic market data, and based on trading volume and size, he’s able to tell if retail flow is flooding in. In the past, before website Robintrack.net — which provided hourly updates on retail stock demand — was forced to shut when the Robinhood investing app curtailed access to data, he’d sometimes use the site to confirm his suspicions.

作为机构销售交易员，萨斯奎哈纳(Susquehanna)的墨菲(Murphy)跟踪期权的零售趋势，并将其与其他研究一起提供给客户。 他倾向于经典的市场数据，并且基于交易量和大小，他可以判断是否有大量的零售流量涌入。过去，在提供每小时一次零售库存需求更新的网站Robintrack.net之前，它被迫关闭Robinhood投资应用程序减少了对数据的访问，他有时会使用该网站来确认自己的怀疑。

“You can’t look at Robintrack anymore, but usually I would be more likely to reverse engineer it. I pull up Robintrack just to confirm, ‘Ah, yeah, it’s number five, or it’s moving up,’” Murphy said. “You could try to go the other way, but not having Robintrack now makes it a little bit more difficult.”

“您再也看不到Robintrack了，但是通常我会对其进行反向工程。 我拉起Robintrack只是为了确认，“啊，是的，它是第五名，或者它正在上升，” Murphy说。 “您可以尝试另辟way径，但是现在没有Robintrack会使难度增加一些。”

When it was live, Robintrack attracted hedge funds and other large financial firms that were interested in aggregating the site’s data. The website, built in three months as a college side project, may no longer exist in an up-to-date form, but that hasn’t deterred large professional players from tracking retail investment decisions. Rather, they’re getting more creative.

上线时，Robintrack吸引了对对汇总站点数据感兴趣的对冲基金和其他大型金融公司。 该网站是作为大学附属项目而建的，耗时三个月，可能不再以最新形式存在，但这并没有阻止大型专业公司跟踪零售投资决策。 相反，他们变得更有创造力。

— With assistance from Tracy Alloway, Joe Weisenthal and Claire Ballentine.

在Tracy Alloway，Joe Weisenthal和Claire Ballentine的协助下。