And why we will never be rid of him

以及为什么我们永远不会摆脱他

During my grammar school years, I had no trouble believing in an omnipresent, invisible being. I was taught by Catholic sisters whose lessons I found persuasive. I loved my religion because I believed what I’d been told: that God protected us, guided us, and, with wisdom and infinite love, disciplined us. I could feel his presence during Mass, of course, and sometimes in the playground, but never more vividly than in my room at night, when I would finish my prayers by pillow-screaming “FUUUCK!” with such force that my voice would crack into a dry shriek like a sax blown so hard the reed can’t seat. It was the worst sin I was capable of at the time and it filled me with concentrated joy. I wouldn’t dare let my parents overhear; they would never understand. Still, I couldn’t merely whisper the word; that would have diluted the offense and God might not have answered. So I sinned in silence, but with fury and delight, until he revealed himself. I could sense his disappointment reflected off every surface, saturating the very air. I was throwing an elbow and he was replying with a reassuring smack. Thus through sin did I commune with the Almighty. He disapproved, of course, but he does not despise. Nothing was ever so comforting to me as proving, at least to my satisfaction at the time, that God is real.

在我的语法学校时代里，我毫不费力地相信一个无所不在的，无形的存在。 我是由天主教姐妹们教的，他们的课程使我很有说服力。 我热爱自己的宗教信仰，因为我相信我会被告知：上​​帝保护了我们，引导了我们，并以智慧和无限的爱对我们进行了管教。 我当然可以在弥撒中感觉到他的身影，有时甚至在操场上，但从来没有像晚上在我的房间里那样生动，当我用枕头大喊“ FUUUCK！”结束祈祷时， 如此强烈的力量使我的声音像干燥的萨克斯风一样嘶哑地吹干，芦苇无法入座。 那是我当时最严重的罪过，使我充满了喜悦。 我不敢让父母偷听。 他们永远不会理解。 不过，我不能只是轻声细语。 那会削弱进攻，而上帝可能不会回答。 所以我沉默地犯罪，但充满了愤怒和喜悦，直到他露面了。 我能感觉到他的失望情绪从每个表面都反射了出来，使空气弥漫。 我投了个手肘，他的回答令人放心。 因此，我通过罪与全能者通了。 他当然不赞成，但他并不轻视。 令我感到安慰的是，没有，至少当时令我满意的是，上帝是真实的。

You might not believe in God, but you had better believe in an omnipresent, invisible shepherd that guides and disciplines us. It’s called AI. Not long ago, it impregnated the world’s communications networks and spawned President Trump. Let me explain.

您可能不相信上帝，但您最好相信一个无所不在，无形的牧羊人来指导和训练我们。 这就是所谓的AI。 不久前，它浸渍了世界的通讯网络，并催生了特朗普总统。 让我解释。

Too clever by halfAt the confluence of Big Tech, Marketing & Media, and Banking & Finance, educated professionals gather. They chat wittily and appear savvy, but that’s because they’ve mastered the geek vocabulary. They’re full of praise for Silicon Valley and its never-ending harvest of gizmos and gimmicks because, at the user level, much of it is helpful. They’ll tell you it’s good for the economy because the unit of measure they’ve been trained to apply is the relative value of businesses and markets, not the living standards and purchasing power of individuals. In fact, it’s good for parts of the economy.

太聪明了一半在大技术，营销与媒体以及银行与金融的融合下，受过良好教育的专业人员聚集在一起。 他们机灵地聊天，显得机灵，但这是因为他们已经掌握了极客词汇。 他们对硅谷及其无休止的小玩意儿和头的收获赞不绝口，因为在用户级别上，很多东西都很有帮助。 他们会告诉您，这对经济有利，因为他们经过培训后会采用的计量单位是企业和市场的相对价值，而不是个人的生活水平和购买力。 实际上，这对部分经济地区有利。

Don’t let nerdy shibboleths fool you. The educated class who know how to exploit technology remain largely oblivious to its harmful effects. Few people understand it deeply; it’s become too subtle and complicated for anyone but a specialist to grasp. We’ve known about this problem for a while. In 1995, just as the New Economy began to grow legs, Carl Sagan warned us that,

不要让书呆子愚弄你。 知道如何利用技术的受过教育的人们在很大程度上仍未意识到其有害影响。 很少有人对此有深刻的了解； 对于除专家以外的任何人来说，它都变得过于微妙和复杂。 我们已经对此问题了解了一段时间。 1995年，正当新经济开始发展之时，卡尔·萨根(Carl Sagan)警告我们，

We’ve arranged a global civilization in which most crucial elements profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. We might get away with it for a while, but sooner or later this combustible mixture of ignorance and power is going to blow up in our faces. [1]

我们已经安排了一个全球文明，其中最关键的因素深深地取决于科学和技术。 我们还对事物进行了整理，以至于几乎没有人了解科学和技术。 我们可能会暂时摆脱它，但是这种无知和力量的可燃混合物迟早会在我们的脸上炸毁。 [1]

I contend that the toxic mixture of public ignorance and obscure corporate power Sagan imagined is corrosive, not explosive. Big Tech has learned to govern our daily lives, both private and professional, in ways that serve the interests of Google, Apple, Facebook, Twitter, et al., along with their clients — which, incidentally, are marketers and sellers. You and I are targets, not customers.

我认为，公众的无知和萨根(Sagan)想象的晦涩的公司权力的有毒混合物是腐蚀性的 ，而不是爆炸性的。 大技术公司已经学会了如何以服务于Google，Apple，Facebook，Twitter 等人及其客户(顺带一提的是营销商和卖方)的利益的方式来管理我们的私人和专业日常生活。 您和我是目标 ，而不是客户。

Sagan’s dangerous mixture has been seeping unnoticed for two decades, silently contaminating our political, economic, social, and cultural ecospheres. The power to scrutinize human lives in minute detail that we’ve entrusted to private-interest behemoths is unprecedented. Any totalitarian Soviet surveillance state would have sacrificed a generation of its first born for a mere taste of the data we voluntarily surrender to hundreds of data brokers and advertisers as we go about our daily routines using Google, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and Reddit, not to mention SMS, WhatsApp, Skype, Zoom, Steam, Origin, Amazon, Netflix, Android Auto, Apple CarPlay, TikTok, Web mail, Tinder, Grindr, Uber, and Lyft, plus several hundred thousand minor phone apps and casual games.

萨根(Sagan)的危险混合物在二十年来一直未引起人们的注意，它无声地污染了我们的政治，经济，社会和文化生态圈。 我们委托给私人利益庞然大物的细微检查人类生活的能力是前所未有的。 任何一个极权主义的苏联监视国家都将只牺牲我们自愿向数百名数据经纪人和广告商交出的数据而牺牲的第一代产品，因为我们在使用Google，Twitter，Facebook，YouTube和Reddit进行日常工作时，更不用说SMS，WhatsApp，Skype，Zoom，Steam，Origin，Amazon，Netflix，Android Auto，Apple CarPlay，TikTok，Web邮件，Tinder，Grindr，Uber和Lyft，以及数十万个次要手机应用程序和休闲游戏。

Under a microscopeThe ability of an AI to analyze and alter the finest threads of daily life for marketing purposes brings with it the ability, and the motivation, to show us communications — personal, commercial, and official — that it believes we will welcome while concealing information it thinks we will reject. AIs tell us whom to follow; they show us video clips we might like; they point us toward discussion forums likely to welcome us; they suggest search terms; they recommend news sources we’re inclined to trust and articles we might find interesting; they curate our choices of movies, TV shows, and music; they introduce us to people we’ll probably like in real life.

在显微镜下人工智能能够分析和改变日常生活中最细微的线条以达到营销目的的能力，使其具有向我们展示个人，商业和官员交流的能力和动机，它相信我们会欢迎隐藏我们认为会拒绝的信息。 认可机构告诉我们要跟随谁； 他们向我们展示了我们可能喜欢的视频片段； 他们将我们引向可能欢迎我们的讨论论坛； 他们建议搜寻字词； 他们推荐了我们倾向于信任的新闻来源和我们可能会发现有趣的文章； 他们策划我们对电影，电视节目和音乐的选择； 他们向我们介绍了现实生活中可能会喜欢的人。

Above all, they sell. Marketing priorities have created flexible but durable echo chambers where political diversity is discouraged. For example, if you’re a Sun-Belt retiree and a Trump voter, I’m not going to deplete my advertising budget selling you vegan snacks. Rather, I’m going to corral you with others who believe and like what you believe and like, and try to sell you a Winnebago. If you’re an anti-vaxer and a Trump voter, I’ll offer you ammo reloading supplies and dehydrated meals. The last thing I want to do is contradict or confuse or judge you. I will take care to remain inoffensive, even supportive; I want you to keep on doing you, and to keep on showing me who you are. That’s the tactically sound move.

最重要的是，他们出售。 营销优先事项在不鼓励政治多元化的情况下创建了灵活但持久的回声室。 例如，如果您是Sun-Belt的退休人员和Trump选民，那么我不会耗尽我的广告预算来出售纯素食小吃。 相反，我将与相信和喜欢您所相信和喜欢的其他人联系起来，并尝试向您出售Winnebago。 如果您是反暴力人士和特朗普选民，我将为您提供弹药，以补充补给品和脱水食品。 我想做的最后一件事是使您感到矛盾，困惑或判断。 我会注意保持进攻，甚至支持。 我希望您继续做您，并继续向我展示您的身份。 这是战术上的明智之举。

There is no dark conspiracy here; the motive is simply profit. The method is toxic. We all like to organize our collections; it’s a natural tendency. The thousands of AIs we interact with every day are simply organizing their collections: you and me. People with similar incomes and levels of education tend to hold similar beliefs, which makes them likely to appreciate similar goods and services. There really is no more to it than that. But it’s a lot. Marketing AI is an omnipresent, invisible shepherd in the tech ecosystem urging us to indulge our biases and embrace our ignorance. It would be no exaggeration to call this the largest and least predictable social experiment in human history.

这里没有阴谋。 动机仅仅是利润。 该方法是有毒的。 我们都喜欢组织我们的收藏； 这是自然趋势。 每天与我们互动的成千上万的AI只是在组织它们的收藏：您和我。 收入和教育水平相近的人倾向于持有相似的信念，这使他们可能会欣赏相似的商品和服务。 确实没有什么比这更多的了。 但这很多。 营销AI是技术生态系统中无所不在的无形牧羊人，它敦促我们放任自己的偏见并拥抱我们的无知。 称它为人类历史上最大，最不可预测的社会实验，毫不夸张。

Timing is everythingSo, why did Donald Trump ‘trend’ his way into the White House? Because his audience was waiting for him. Today, many high-school graduates have grown resentful toward Establishment politicians in both parties because they’ve been economically demoted under centrist, neoliberal policies that broke the labor unions. George W. Bush might have leaned more toward Wall Street than Silicon Valley, but his major domestic policies were roughly in line with Bill Clinton’s and Barrack Obama’s. Workers are powerless now: Capital has got Labor on its knees while Government fastens the zip ties. For a quarter-century, one “Republican Lite” administration and two “New Democrat” ones have pushed the working class past the breaking point. They are now the working poor, which makes them vulnerable to propaganda promising better jobs and a better life. They are Republicans and Democrats: an extended family with similar needs and similar interests. You and I might view them as adversaries to each other because conflict makes the everyday grind more entertaining, but marketing AIs are only logical and therefore see them as a class of consumers who buy many of the same products, search for similar information, and enjoy the same kinds of entertainment. Mainstream media might not be paying much attention to these people, but AIs certainly are.

时机就是一切。那么，唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)为什么会“趋向”进入白宫？ 因为听众在等他。 如今，许多高中毕业生对双方的建制政客都怀有怨恨之情，因为他们在中间派，破坏了工会的新自由主义政策下被经济贬低。 乔治·W·布什可能比硅谷更倾向于华尔街，但是他的主要国内政策与比尔·克林顿和巴拉克·奥巴马的政策基本一致。 工人现在已经无能为力：在政府拉紧拉链的同时，资本屈服了劳工。 在四分之一世纪中，一个“共和党精简版”政府和两个“新民主主义者”政府将工人阶级推向了突破点。 他们现在是工作中的穷人，这使他们很容易受到宣传的威胁，因为他们希望获得更好的工作和更好的生活。 他们是共和党人和民主党人：一个有着相似需求和相似利益的大家庭。 您和我可能将它们视为彼此的对手，因为冲突使日常工作变得更加有趣，但是营销AI只是合乎逻辑的，因此将它们视为一类消费者 ，他们购买许多相同的产品，搜索相似的信息并享受相同的娱乐方式。 主流媒体可能没有对这些人给予太多关注，但AI肯定会关注这些人。

Years ago, streetwise journalists like Jimmy Breslin and Pete Hamill, and authors like Barbara Ehrenreich, would tell their readers what ordinary Americans were experiencing and thinking and saying. Sadly, the voices they listened to have largely been silenced. Today’s journalists are keen to know what educated professionals think, chiefly because they, too, are educated professionals. But if you want to understand why working class voters in both parties are tired of centrist, moderate politicians, pay attention to what John Thomson, a lifelong Democrat, told me:

几年前，像吉米·布雷斯林(Jimmy Breslin)和彼得·哈米尔(Pete Hamill)这样的街头记者，以及像芭芭拉·埃伦赖希(Barbara Ehrenreich)这样的作家，都会告诉读者普通美国人的经历，思想和言论。 可悲的是，他们听到的声音大部分都被静音了。 当今的记者渴望知​​道受过教育的专业人员的想法，主要是因为他们也是受过教育的专业人员。 但是，如果您想了解为什么两党的工人阶级选民都对中间派，温和的政治家感到厌倦，请注意终身民主党人约翰·汤姆森(John Thomson)告诉我的事情：

It was the liberals and the college boys and the guys who were thrilled to be let into the right business and political circles who really screwed the Democratic Party. When I was a kid, I wanted to be a labor lawyer, like Clarence Darrow. Well, that never happened. I’ve always been, basically, just a lower-middle-class / blue-collar working stiff who happens to have a useless college degree from a second-rate state university. I’m seventy-three, and I’ve seen changes in this country that I never expected. Women and gays and minorities, in general, seem to be making progress in some ways, but most working folks have been getting screwed since at least the reign of Ronald Reagan. When he busted the air traffic controllers’ union and the Democrats neither stopped him nor corrected that disaster once they got some power back, well, that was it for the regular working stiff in this country. It sometimes makes me smile a crooked smile when I watch our educated, liberal elites scratch their heads and scrunch up their faces trying to figure out why such a person as an “Obama-Trump” voter exists.

真正让民主党入迷的是那些自由主义者，大学男孩和那些被允许进入正确的商业和政治圈子的家伙。 小时候，我想像克拉伦斯·达罗(Clarence Darrow)这样的劳工律师。 好吧，那从来没有发生过。 基本上，我一直只是一个下层中产阶级/蓝领工作狂，刚好从二流州立大学获得了无用的大学学位。 我已经七十三岁了，我看到了这个国家从未有过的变化。 总体而言，男女同性恋者和少数族裔似乎都在取得进步，但是至少从罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)统治以来，大多数在职人员就开始陷入困境。 当他摧毁了空中交通管制员工会时，民主党一获得权力就既没有制止他，也没有改正那场灾难，好吧，这就是为了这个国家的正常工作。 有时，当我看着受过教育的自由派精英挠头挠头，想知道为什么存在像“奥巴马总统”这样的选民时，这使我的笑容变得弯曲。

Nicely said, but these days the ones listening closely are bots, and they reckon John would be comfortable among college-educated Trumpers, a population in the same income range who also have scant praise for the Democratic Party. He’ll be rubbing elbows with them on line because of those connections, often without realizing it. How might it affect his vote, I wonder?

很好地说，但是如今，那些倾听的人是机器人，他们认为约翰会在受过大学教育的特朗普手中，他们是同等收入的人口，他们对民主党也没有什么赞赏。 由于这些联系，他将在线上与他们擦肘，但往往没有意识到。 我想知道这会如何影响他的投票？

BlindsidedEven today, we hear it: Hillary was so far ahead of Trump in the polls, how could she have lost? Two reasons: First, the New Economy created many involuntary migrants from the working class to the working poor who are now so discouraged and angry that they would welcome an anti-president like Donald. The Democrats among them might well find solidarity with Republican Trumpers because they’ve all slid along the same dismal employment trajectory.

蒙蔽了双眼即使在今天，我们也听到了：希拉里在民意调查中遥遥领先于特朗普，她怎么可能输了？ 原因有两个：首先，新经济造就了许多从工人阶级到劳动穷人的非自愿移民，他们现在如此灰心和愤怒，以至于他们会欢迎像唐纳德这样的反总统。 他们中间的民主党人很可能会与共和党人共鸣，因为他们都沿着同样惨淡的就业轨迹下滑。

Second, the information-filtering and surveillance technology integrated into every electronic device, every software application, indeed, every thread of our lives has segregated us in virtual consumer districts that serve as echo chambers indulging and nourishing every manner of belief and desire, however peculiar or unhealthy, while muting contradictory voices, including truthful ones.

其次，信息过滤和监视技术已集成到每个电子设备，每个软件应用程序中，实际上，我们生活的每个线程都将我们隔离在虚拟的消费区中，这些区用作回声室，沉迷和滋养各种信仰和欲望，无论多么奇特或不健康，同时屏蔽包括真实声音在内的矛盾声音。

Nudge frustrated people no one talks to or thinks much about toward virtual echo chambers where they can commiserate and identify a common adversary, and let the mixture ferment. Eventually, something like Donald Trump will evolve to exploit them by offering — or merely pretending — to address their concerns. It’s a natural process.

推动沮丧的人们没有人对虚拟回声室说话或思考太多，他们可以在其中进行同情和识别共同的对手，并让混合物发酵。 最终，像唐纳德·特朗普这样的东西将演变为通过提供或仅仅假装来解决他们的担忧来利用它们。 这是自然过程。

When prominent Republican never-Trumpers like Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham pivoted to embrace Donald, they were guided by simple arithmetic. They calculate that the class of voter they should court leans toward Trump (no doubt in hopes that he might mean some of what he says). Trump and his Republican brides in Congress are expecting to draw some votes from disillusioned Democrats. I’m confident that they will.

当像泰德·克鲁兹(Ted Cruz)和林赛·格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)这样著名的共和党人从不说话时，他们转向拥抱唐纳德(Donald)，他们受到了简单算术的指导。 他们计算出的类选民，他们应法庭倾斜往特朗普(在希望毫无疑问，他可能意味着一些他所说的话)。 特朗普和他在国会的共和党新娘期望从幻灭的民主党人中获得一些选票。 我相信他们会的。

Now, casual observers might assume that Donald’s performances on Twitter represent the “tech” angle explaining his popularity, but that’s wrong. His admirers occupy virtual communities toward which they were herded by marketing AIs aiming to sell fishing tackle and reverse mortgages. Professionals have little cause to visit such sites, having themselves been herded toward different territories by AIs keen to sell raw-milk cheeses and space-age baby strollers. That’s why educated people were blindsided by Donald’s victory. They never saw it coming because the AIs curating their daily online experiences filtered out realistic portrayals of the MAGA movement, which obscured the breadth of its appeal stretching across political party lines. Whenever they encountered clips of Trump’s rallies with audiences deliriously cheering his signature torrent of self-serving fatuities, they dismissed it all as a freak show, the appeal of which must be limited to a handful of Ku Kluxers, misogynists, and gun nuts in remote quarters. They couldn’t (and largely still can’t) imagine that their neighbors a few blocks over thought “President Trump” was worth a shot, because, really, their employment prospects can’t get much worse. The days are past when people who regard themselves as professionals might listen to the former machinist who’s now bagging their groceries, but if they did, oh what an education they would get.

现在，偶然的观察者可能会认为唐纳德在Twitter上的表演代表了解释他受欢迎程度的“技术”角度，但这是错误的。 他的仰慕者居住在虚拟社区中，他们被旨在销售钓鱼用具和反向抵押的营销AI所吸引。 专业人士几乎没有理由去这些地方，因为他们热衷于出售生乳奶酪和太空时代的婴儿推车的认可机构将他们吸引到不同的地区。 这就是为什么受过教育的人对唐纳德的胜利视而不见。 他们从未见过这种情况，因为AI策划了他们的日常在线体验，过滤掉了MAGA运动的现实写照，从而掩盖了其跨政党路线的吸引力。 每当他们遇到特朗普集会的片段时，观众都为他的自命不凡的奋斗欢呼而欢呼雀跃，他们把这一切视作奇特的表演，其吸引力必须仅限于屈指可数的Ku Kluxers，厌女症患者和枪手宿舍。 他们无法(而且基本上仍然无法)想象他们的邻居以为“特朗普总统”值得一试，因为，实际上，他们的就业前景不会变得更糟。 过去，以自己为专业人士的人们可能会听听这位前机械师的行事，现在他们正在包装食品，但是如果这样做，他们会得到什么样的教育。

Truly, we are stuck with what the bots have wrought. I’ve said it before: I think Trump has a solid chance of winning by attracting the invisible working poor of both parties. I would also expect him to betray them, but they’re reading from an emotional rather than a rational playbook and might not punish him for that at the polls. Still, whatever happens in November, one fact is undeniable: we will never be rid of President Donald. He’s too entertaining and unpredictable, too inclined to trend. Online AIs will make him immortal. If he’s reelected, he’ll stand behind the White House lectern and spew. If he loses, he’ll create some kind of Trump Network generating a relentless deluge of clips and quotes adequate to support the candidacy of Ivanka or Donald Junior or Ted Nugent, his inanities forever buoyed by algorithms governing the currents of this ocean of hogwash in which we all swim.

的确，我们对僵尸程序的所作所为感到困惑。 我之前已经说过：我认为特朗普有很大的机会吸引双方无形的工作穷人来赢得胜利。 我也希望他背叛他们，但他们是从情感而不是理性的剧本中读懂的，可能不会在民意测验中因此惩罚他。 尽管如此，无论11月发生什么，一个事实都是不可否认的：我们将永远不会摆脱唐纳德总统。 他太好玩又不可预测，太倾向于趋势。 在线AI将使他永生。 如果他再次当选，他将站在白宫讲台后面并冒出来。 如果他输了，他将创建某种特朗普网络，产生大量的剪辑和引语，足以支持伊万卡，唐纳德·少年或特德·纽金特的候选人资格。我们都游泳。

____________[1] Carl Sagan: The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark; New York, 1995

____________ [1]卡尔·萨根(Carl Sagan)： 恶魔困扰的世界：黑暗中的蜡烛科学 ； 1995年，纽约