This week, I’m keen to dip into a little science-fiction — shock horror! As you may have ascertained from a few other articles to date, I enjoy watching, reading and writing about sci-fi. And what would my commitment to the genre be without a fascination with the great speculators of our future?

在他的那一周，我热衷于研究一些科幻小说-令人震惊的恐怖！ 到目前为止，您可能已经从其他几篇文章中了解到，我喜欢看，读和写关于科幻小说的文章。 在不迷恋我们未来的伟大投机者的情况下，我对这一类型的承诺将是什么？

One I stumbled upon recently is Nikolai Kardashev, a Soviet and Russian astrophysicist and SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) pioneer who passed away just last year.

我最近偶然发现的一位是尼古拉·卡戴舍夫(Nikolai Kardashev)，他是苏联和俄罗斯的天体物理学家，也是SETI(搜寻外星智能)的先驱，他于去年去世。

During his long and colourful career, Kardashev became known for many things, but one that stands out above the rest is his method of measuring and classifying an alien civilisation’s level of technological advancement based on the amount of energy it is capable of storing and using.

在卡尔达舍夫漫长而多彩的职业生涯中，他在许多事情上广为人知，但与众不同的一个是他根据能够存储和使用的能量来衡量和分类外星文明的技术进步水平的方法。

Known as the Kardashev Scale (KS), the method describes 3 levels, expanding through various orders of magnitude:

该方法称为Kardashev量表 (KS)，描述了3个级别，扩展了多个数量级：

1. Type I Civilisations (somewhat close to humans), also called planetary civilisations, which can capture and harness all available energy on their planet.第一类文明(有点接近人类)，也称为行星文明，可以捕获和利用地球上所有可用的能源。
2. Type II Civilisations, also called stellar civilisations, which can capture and harness all available energy within their planetary system and from the star around which it orbits.II类文明，也称为恒星文明，可以捕获并利用其行星系统内以及绕行星运行的恒星中的所有可用能量。
3. Type III Civilisations, also called galactic civilisations, which can capture and harness all available energy from their entire host galaxy.III型文明，也称为银河文明，可以捕获并利用整个宿主银河系中的所有可用能量。

Iwould be surprised if the levels of the KS don’t ring a bell for those with a keen interest in technology, and that’s because they’re not altogether unlike the broad categories of Artificial Intelligence (AI):

如果KS的水平对那些对技术怀有浓厚兴趣的人没有敲钟， 我会感到惊讶，这是因为它们与人工智能 (AI)的广泛类别并不完全相同：

1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI), also referred to as Narrow AI or Weak AI, which is the only type of AI that humans have managed to create to date. It is goal-oriented, designed to perform specific tasks, and merely simulates human behaviour based on a narrow range of parameters and contexts. This is the sort of AI that powers internet search engines; drones; chatbots; self-driving cars; voice assistants like Alexa, Siri and Cortana; and controversial facial recognition systems.人工智能(AI)，也称为Narrow AI或Weak AI，这是迄今为止人类设法创建的唯一AI类型。 它是面向目标的，旨在执行特定任务，并且仅基于狭窄范围的参数和上下文模拟人类行为。 这是为互联网搜索引擎提供动力的AI。 无人机 聊天机器人； 自动驾驶汽车； 语音助手，例如Alexa，Siri和Cortana； 以及备受争议的面部识别系统。
2. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), also referred to as Deep AI or Strong AI, which humans haven’t accomplished yet — there are varying predictions as to when this will happen, with some arguing it is a complete impossibility. If we do ever reach the stage of AGI, such tech would be capable of replicating human-level intelligence and behaviour, as well as solving any problem.人类还没有完成的人工智能(AGI)，也称为深度AI或强AI-关于何时会发生的预测不尽相同，有些人认为这是完全不可能的。 如果我们确实达到了AGI的阶段，那么这种技术将能够复制人类水平的情报和行为，并能够解决任何问题。

3. Artificial Superintelligence (ASI), which is a theoretical form of AI that, if created, wouldn’t simply replicate human-level intelligence and behaviour, but instead develop self-awareness, continually self-improving to the point its intelligence extends far beyond our own in every way. This is the sort of AI we see in the imagined futures of sci-fi films like The Terminator and 2001: A Space Odyssey, with goals contrary to those of mankind and little choice but to screw us over.

   人工超智能(ASI)是AI的一种理论形式，一旦创建，就不会简单地复制人类水平的智能和行为，而是会发展自我意识，不断自我完善，以至于其智能远远超出了我们的理解范围拥有一切。 这是我们在《终结者》和《 2001：太空漫游》等科幻电影的想象中看到的那种AI，其目标与人类相反，别无选择，只能使我们陷入困境。

So, as you know by now, while we haven’t quite become a Type I Civilisation just yet, humans have successfully achieved ANI — this is where the KS and broad categories of AI differ. Even so, the comparison is still an interesting one, don’t you think? After all, both are essentially thought experiments on what our species might be capable of at various unspecified points in the future.

S 0，因为你知道，现在，虽然我们还没有完全成为I型文明，只是还没有，人类已经成功地实现了ANI -这哪里是KS和大类AI的不同。 即使这样，比较仍然是一个有趣的过程，您不觉得吗？ 毕竟，从本质上讲，这两个都是关于我们的物种在将来的各种未指定时间可能具有的能力的思想实验。

Although, I’d be lying if I said the thought of spacefaring humans zipping between solar systems (perhaps including the one astronomers just caught on camera) isn’t more appealing than the thought of robots zapping us between the eyes.

虽然，如果我说太空人在太阳系之间穿梭的想法(也许包括刚刚被照相机抓住的一位天文学家 )的想法要比机器人让我们在两眼之间拍动的想法更吸引人，我会撒谎。

If we put the two categorisations side by side, thinking about the enormous leaps between Type I, Type II and Type III Civilisations, it helps put the development of AI in perspective. In other words, it could be an incredibly long time before we move from ANI to AGI and then to ASI — if we ever do.

如果我们将两种分类放在一起，考虑类型I，类型II和类型III文明之间的巨大飞跃，这将有助于透视AI的发展。 换句话说，如果我们这样做的话，从ANI转移到AGI，然后再转移到ASI可能要花费相当长的时间。

Of course, the leaps between Kardashev’s levels are likely considerably bigger than those between the stages of AI evolution, the former potentially involving thousands or millions of years. But perhaps the KS can still teach us something about long-term thinking around AI.

当然，Kardashev的水平之间的飞跃可能比AI进化阶段之间的飞跃要大得多，前者可能涉及数千年或数百万年。 但是也许KS仍然可以教给我们一些有关AI的长期思考的知识。

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: I do believe that, if AI researchers and scientists are left to push on uncontrolled, their creations will one day outsmart humans. And I completely agree with Elon Musk’s recent statement that those who refuse to accept the possibility are:

我之前已经说过，我会再说一遍：我确实相信，如果让AI研究人员和科学家放任不管，他们的创造将有一天超过人类。 我完全同意埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)最近的说法，即那些拒绝接受这种可能性的人是：

“way dumber than they think they are.”

“ 比他们想象的要愚蠢 。”

This is why, in my upcoming book on AI, I make a case for planning for all eventualities — even if those eventualities await us hundreds of years down the line.

Ť他是为什么，在我即将出版的新书上AI，我做的情况下，规划为所有不测事件-即使这些不测等待着我们几百年下来就行了。

What I mean is truly pragmatic planning, involving realistic precautions taken through processes of governance prohibiting the development and use of AI whose goals aren’t inconsistent with our own — unlike the robots of sci-fi futures. The European Union is currently heading down this path.

我的意思是真正务实的计划，其中涉及通过治理流程采取的现实预防措施，禁止开发和使用AI的目标与我们自己的目标并不矛盾的AI-与科幻未来的机器人不同。 欧盟目前正在走这条路。

What I don’t mean is the sort of radical planning Elon Musk is tied up in right now, which would make space-farers of us all. The SpaceX founder and CEO is going full-throttle with his grand scheme to colonise Mars for humanity’s prospective escape from Earth — you know, in the event of an ASI takeover.

我的意思不是说埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)目前正忙于进行这种激进的计划，这将使我们所有人的航天员成为现实。 SpaceX的创始人兼首席执行官正全力以赴，为人类可能从地球逃脱而定居在火星上的宏伟计划 -如果发生ASI接管，您将知道。

The irony here is plentiful. Such a strategy wouldn’t be necessary with more down-to-earth measures in place. But if SpaceX does continue with its plan, eventually succeeding in its goals, this will take us one step closer to becoming a Type II Civilisation.

具有讽刺意味的是在这里。 如果采取更多切实可行的措施，则无需采取这种策略。 但是，如果SpaceX确实继续其计划，并最终实现其目标，这将使我们更接近成为II型文明。

And if we leave Earth for our dusty, red neighbour, not because we fancy an interplanetary holiday, but because we’re responsible for the creation of hostile AI, then it would be human stupidity and arrogance facilitating progress along the Kardashev Scale.

而且，如果我们离开地球去尘土飞扬的红色邻居，并不是因为我们喜欢星际假期，而是因为我们要负责创建敌对的AI，那么人类的愚蠢和傲慢将推动Kardashev规模的发展。

But hey ho. Much of what we face today on this planet is down to human stupidity and arrogance — so, no surprise there, huh?

但是，嘿。 我们今天在这个星球上面临的许多事情都归因于人类的愚蠢和自大-所以，这并不奇怪，对吧？

We may live to see the shift from ANI to AGI, but it’s highly improbable we’ll ever be around for the transition from Type I to Type II Civilisation — especially keeping in mind suggestions AGI or ASI will only arrive once we achieve Type II status.

我们可能会看到从ANI到AGI的转变，但是要实现从I型到II型文明的转变是非常不可能的，尤其要牢记AGI或ASI只有在达到II型地位时才能到来 。