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https://study.163.com/course/introduction.htm?courseId=1005214003&utm_campaign=commission&utm_source=cp-400000000398149&utm_medium=share

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-09-10/The-History-of-Gold-Oil-Ratios-1970-2018.html

今天我记录并分析了从1970年1月到2018年8月的黄金和石油价格及其比率。这是我们对二战以来金 - 油比率研究和分析的第二部分。

作为提醒，我们使用Kitco.com提供的月平均伦敦金价和来自美国能源信息管理局（EIA）的西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）的月平均油价。

上周，我从1946年至1969年审查了黄金和石油的价格和比率，当时这两种商品都以美元固定。

在1971年至1973年的三个步骤中，美国退出1944年的布雷顿森林协议，使美元贬值，并自由地将其兑换成黄金。当其他工业化国家于1973年3月浮动货币时，建立了一个新的世界经济体系，美元作为世界储备法定货币

从1970年1月到2018年7月，金（红）和油（蓝）的月平均价格图如下所示：

该图表显示黄金和原油的价格通常是正相关的，但石油通常更不稳定。有时会出现强烈的负相关。这两种商品都呈现指数上升，抛物线下跌和短期飙升。

在584个月期间，黄金与石油的比率表现出很大的差异，极端的波动性，以及从低于6的高点到高于30的高点的非常宽的范围：

这些比率以正偏斜的钟形曲线分布，平均值为15.9，中位数为16.2，下端的异常值非常少：

分布以下面的表格和直方图格式显示：

Au的分布：WTI比率1970-2018

从我们的数据集和从1970年1月到2018年8月的月平均黄金与石油比率的分布，观察结果如下：

• 比率<8.0是非常不寻常的，发生在11个月或不到2％的时间。它们发生在2000年11月，在2005年的春季，夏季和秋季，以及2008年5月至8月的六个月。

• 从8.0到10.0的比率构成了记录的十分之一。

• Au：来自10.0-12.5的WTI占月度比率的五分之一以上。

• 12.5和17.5之间的比例占据了分布的近三分之一。

• 17.5-23.0的比率略高于数据的五分之一。

• 23.0-30.0区间约占我们纲要的十分之一。

• 12个月的异常值> 30.0，略高于总记录的2％。这些异常高的比率分别在1973年，1986年和1988年发生过两次，在2016年夏季和冬季发生了6次。

我们的处理始于1970年1月，当时黄金和石油价格基本固定，异常低的比率为10.4。直到1971年8月所谓的尼克松冲击，当时“黄金窗口”关闭时，这个比例仍然很低，为11.5或更低。此行动之后是1973年2月完全与黄金断绝之前的两次官方美元贬值。其他工业化国家一个月后在世界交易所上市。

美国通过石油进口，越南战争，扩大社会计划以及美联储扩大货币供应量的通货膨胀导致70年代初金价上涨五倍。

1973年7月，黄金飙升至每盎司120美元，而原油仍维持在每桶3.56美元。黄金油比率急剧上升至近34个。在接下来的五个月中，WTI的官方定价为4.31美元/桶，但由于供应充足，实际售价低于公开市场。

1956年，King Hubbert预测美国的石油产量将在1970年达到顶峰。事实上，这种情况在1970年末开始实施。1973年，产量迅速下降，进口量从300万桶增加一倍，达到600多万桶/天。

10月份欧佩克对20个赎罪日战争期间支持以色列的国家实施了禁运，10月份工业化世界遭遇动荡。禁运持续了六个月，1974年1月公布的WTI价格上涨235％至10.11美元。尽管4月金价稳步上涨至170美元以上，但这有效地将金油比率减少到了十几岁中期的普通范围。

美元贬值，黄金自由浮动以及油价上涨导致1973 - 1974年股市崩盘。道琼斯指数下跌45％，经济严重衰退，GDP收缩超过2％，通胀飙升至12％。

随着两种商品价格的稳步上涨，黄金 - 石油比率在整个十年的剩余时间内保持低位，一般从10到15.从1976年中期到1977年初，当WTI的定价上涨时，黄金油价一度跌破10。 ％。

1979年初的伊朗革命和1980年开始的八年伊朗 - 伊拉克战争是1979年初至1981年中期商品繁荣的催化剂。黄金和石油均呈指数上涨。这两次事件导致全球石油供应减少了约14％，随后又出现了经济衰退，80年代初期出现了猖獗的通货膨胀。

金价从1979年1月的200美元低点飙升400％至1980年1月的每盎司843美元，28年来价格水平未再达到。其1月份的月均价为675美元。石油价格上涨了260％，从1979年4月的15.85美元上涨到1980年4月创下的39.50美元的历史新高。比率没有受到太大影响，除了1980年1月至2月的黄金价格飙升外，大部分都处于中期水平。

1979年4月，卡特总统开始放松对尼克松于1973年实行价格管制以来一直存在的石油管制。1981年1月，里根总统签署了一项行政命令，最终允许美国石油在公开市场上自由交易。

1981年末，石油过剩导致工业国家经济活动放缓，高价格推动产量增加，以及保护措施刺激消费减少。未来四年，石油和黄金价格走势略微走低，这一比例一般介于1985年至11年的13至13之间。

1986年初，沙特人厌倦了其他石油输出国组织成员国不遵守生产配额，开启了满负荷生产的水龙头，并向世界充斥着剩余的石油。价格像摇滚一样下跌，在美国触及的价格略高于10美元，在中东的价格仅为7美元。

金油比率跃升至20年代并且在1989年2月之前一直保持在该标记之上。它在1986年的两个月和1988年的两个月达到高于30的高度异常水平。黄金交易价高于400美元而WTI通常定价在高位市场重新调整后的青少年。

这种长期存在的油价下跌严重影响了苏联的国际收支，导致经济不稳定并在1991年消亡。

当埃克森瓦尔迪兹于1989年3月在阿拉斯加南部搁浅并泄漏了25万桶原油时，价格在近两年内首次超过20美元。Au：WTI在三年多以来首次跌破20。

1990年8月伊拉克入侵科威特时，石油市场遭受了下一次重大冲击。尽管黄金对这一地缘政治事件几乎没有反应，但石油价格翻了一番。9月平均每桶39.57美元，当月该比率跌至10以下。但就像海湾战争一样，高油价是短暂的，1991年1月回到了20美元的水平。

1991年12月苏联解体，黄金和石油价格几乎没有变动。在接下来的六年中，这两种商品都是区间范围的，金价为300美元，石油价格高至20美元左右。比率处于中间区间。1997年世界经济衰退被称为亚洲污染，导致当年12月黄金价格低于阻力位300美元，而1998年11月石油价格跌破12美元。

在接下来的3。5年里，黄金仍然低于300美元，许多矿山被关闭。在互联网泡沫的推动下，美国股市在1999年中期飙升，2000年11月世界石油价格飙升至每桶33美元。结果非常低，通常不到10。

2000年3月，科技股将纳斯达克指数创下5000点以上的高位，其随后的崩盘在2002年10月底市场价格下跌了78％。

尽管在2001年9-11恐怖主义之后出现了混乱，但这一继续对美国经济福祉和外交政策产生负面影响的地缘政治事件对黄金和石油价格或比率没有明显影响。

2002年4月，当黄金价格突破4。5年阻力位310美元时，初期的大宗商品牛市开始上涨。油价在开始上涨之前保持在30美元区间，同时金价在2003年底超过400美元。

因此，该行业开始了五年的繁荣，主要的世界交易所交易商品包括黄金，石油，铜和铀，创下历史新高。黄金和石油同时上涨，比率一直非常低，包括2005年春季和秋季以及2008年中期的7.0以下的创纪录异常值。

黄金在2008年3月中旬达到1008美元的高位，当月平均价格为968美元/盎司。石油价格创下了每桶145美元的历史新高，并创下了6.4的历史最低点。

然后雷曼兄弟在9月份失败，随后出现全球经济危机。所有商品，包括黄金和石油，都在几个月内抛售。11月中旬黄金跌至714美元，因为投机者清算持股以弥补追加保证金要求。油价在12月底触及30美元。

2009年初避险买盘对黄金的下跌是短暂的。黄金 - 石油比率在中高端的水平上翻了一倍以上，与前两年的偏离单位数基数相比。随着资源长期牛市的第二站开始，石油缓慢而稳定地复苏。

黄金以指数形式飙升，在2011年9月中旬创下1895美元/盎司的历史新高，月均价为1772美元。2013年5月，两年顶部成为可预测的抛物线下跌。金价在2015年12月中旬达到1049美元的最低点，比历史高点下跌45％。

在此期间油价波动较大，主要是从80美元中期到100美元以下。在十几岁中期，比率落在我们人口最多的范围内。

当石油在2014年第四季度崩溃时，这些比率发生了巨大变化，从6月份的平均106美元下降到2016年1月的28美元/桶。在三年原油价格下滑期间，黄金价格因WTI（比率> 23.0）而被高估。事实上，由于所有硬商品触底，它在2016年1月和2月达到了两个最高的比率38.5和37.8。

2016年1月下旬是黄金下跌五年市场的最低点，并从那里强劲反弹，8月份达到1341美元。油价也触底反弹，但直到2017年中期仍然严重低迷。直到最近，比率一直处于高位到异常高的区间。

2018年，1月至5月黄金平均价格超过1300美元。长期的夏季经济衰退加上强势美元在8月中旬将黄金价格降至1173美元的2。5年低点。虽然黄金价格已经下跌，但油价已经反弹至每桶65美元至74美元的崩盘后高位。

最近的表现表明商品比率在适当的时候总是正常化; 我们已经看到过去几个月的黄金和石油。从6月到8月的17.3 - 17.6，黄金 - 石油比率现在处于最常见的48年历史范围内，与平均值15.9和中值14.7相差不远。

黄金和石油相对价格的波动受以下因素驱动：

• 整体健康和世界经济的增长。

• 经济和/或地缘政治的不确定性导致黄金作为避风港的积累;

• 原油的供需基本面，主要用作内燃机的燃料，也用于发电，供热和化学品;

• 导致石油供应和交付中断的地缘政治事件;

• 中央银行买卖黄金;

• 在纸质市场上交易和投机两种商品，包括黄金交易所，ETF，期货和期权以及其他衍生品市场。

黄金和石油的实物交易是巨大的市场。也就是说，他们的纸张和衍生工具比现有的实物供应量大几个数量级，构成了世界商品交易所交易的两个最大市场。

黄金与石油的比率对于确定一种商品是否相对于另一种商品的公平价值是有用的，并且是预测未来价格变动的有用参数。该比率还可以帮助确定实体商品本身，期货，期权和其他衍生品，和/或作为供应链一部分的股票和企业的投机时机。

在过去的24年期间（1946年至1969年），价格由法定固定，一盎司黄金平均购买13桶石油。在这48年间（1970-2018）期间，美元从1973年开始对黄金浮动，并在1980年后完全解除对WTI价格的管制，一盎司黄金平均买入约16桶石油。

然而，最大的变化是金 - 油比率的高差异和极端波动。

伙计们，这是资本主义运作方式的一个很好的教训。

在自由市场中，由于各种原因，价格上下波动，其中一些原因列在上面，表示黄金和石油。自由市场为投资者，交易者和投机者提供多个进入和退出点以获利。我接受这种波动，并建议你也应该这样做。

现在谈谈实际问题：

跟随者都知道，我认为黄金是唯一的钱。这是我的财政灾难和经济崩溃的保险政策。我不投资或推测黄金。

作为一个囤积者，我积累黄金或其他贵金属的基本策略是在价格低迷期间购买，无论牛市还是熊市周期。

事实上，这就是我过去几周金价走向南方时所做的。

Today I document and analyze gold and oil prices and their ratios from January 1970 to August 2018. This is the second part of our research and analysis on gold-oil ratios since World War II.

As a reminder, we use monthly average London gold prices provided by Kitco.com and monthly average oil prices for West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) sourced from the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Last week, I reviewed prices and ratios of gold and oil from 1946 thru 1969 when both commodities were fixed by fiat in US dollars.

In a series of three steps from 1971 to 1973, the United States withdrew from the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, devalued the dollar, and freely floated it against gold. When other industrialized countries floated their currencies in March 1973, a new world economic system was established with the US dollar as the world's reserve fiat currency

The monthly average price chart for gold (red) and oil (blue) from January 1970 thru July 2018 is shown below:

The chart shows that the prices of gold and crude oil are most often positively correlated but oil is generally more volatile. At times there is a strong negative correlation. Both commodities are subject to exponential rises, parabolic falls, and short-lived spikes.

Over the 584-month period, gold to oil ratios exhibit wide variance, extreme volatility, and a very broad range from lows near six to highs above 30:

The ratios are distributed in a positively skewed bell curve with a mean of 15.9, a median of 16.2, and very few outliers on the lower end:

The distribution is shown in tabular and histogram formats below:

Distribution of Au:WTI Ratios 1970-2018

From our data set and the distribution of monthly average gold to oil ratios from January 1970 thru August 2018, observations follow:

• Ratios < 8.0 are quite unusual, occurring over 11 months or less than 2% of the time. They occurred in November 2000, six months during the spring, summer, and fall of 2005, and from May to August of 2008.

• Ratios from 8.0 to 10.0 constitute one-tenth of the record.

• Au:WTI from 10.0-12.5 comprises over a fifth of the monthly ratios.

• The ratios between 12.5 and 17.5 occupy nearly a third of the distribution.

• Ratios from 17.5-23.0 make up slightly more than one-fifth of the data.

• The 23.0-30.0 interval covers about one-tenth of the months in our compendium.

• The 12 monthly outliers at > 30.0 comprise slightly more than 2% of the total record. These abnormally high ratios occurred twice in 1973, 1986, and 1988 respectively, and six times during the summer and winter of 2016.

Our treatment begins in January 1970 when both gold and oil prices were largely fixed with an anomalously low ratio at 10.4. The ratio remained quite low at 11.5 or less until the so-called Nixon Shock in August 1971 when the "gold window" was closed. This action was followed by two official dollar devaluations before it was completely severed from gold in February 1973. Other industrialized countries floated their currencies on world exchanges a month later.

Rampant US inflation from oil imports, the Vietnam War, expanding social programs, and the Federal Reserve expanding money supply resulted in a five times increase in gold prices in the early '70s.

In July 1973, gold soared to $120 an ounce while oil remained fixed at $3.56 a barrel. The gold-oil ratio rose dramatically to nearly 34. In the next five months, WTI was officially priced at $4.31/bbl but because of ample supplies, actually sold for less than that on the open market.

In 1956, King Hubbert predicted that US oil production would peak in 1970. And indeed that came to pass in late 1970. Production declined rapidly and imports doubled from three million to over six million bbl/day in 1973.

Turmoil hit the industrialized world in October when OPEC initiated an embargo targeting eight countries that supported Israel during the 20-day Yom Kippur War. The embargo lasted for six months and the posted WTI price rose 235 % to $10.11 in January 1974. Despite a steadily rising gold price that reached over $170 in April, this effectively halved the gold-oil ratio to its common range in the middle teens.

Fallout from the devaluation of the dollar, its free-float to gold, and the rise in oil prices led to the 1973-1974 stock market crash. The Dow lost 45% of its value, there was a severe recession with GDP contracting over two percent, and inflation surged to 12%.

With steadily increasing prices for both commodities, the gold-oil ratio remained low for the entire remainder of the decade, generally from 10 to 15. It briefly fell below 10 from mid-1976 to early 1977 when the set price of WTI was bumped 15%.

The Iranian Revolution in early 1979 and the eight-year Iran-Iraq War that started in 1980 were catalysts for a commodities boom from early 1979 to mid-1981. Both gold and oil had exponential rises. Global oil supplies were cut by about 14% by these two events, another recession ensued, and rampant inflation followed in the early '80s.

Gold spiked 400% from the low $200s in January 1979 to $843 an ounce in January 1980, a price level not reached again for 28 years. Its January monthly average was $675. Oil went up 260%, from $15.85 in April 1979 to a record high of $39.50 in April 1980. Ratios were not much affected, staying mostly at the mid-teen level except for the spike in gold in January-February 1980.

In April 1979, President Carter began deregulation of oil that had remained in place since Nixon instituted price controls in 1973. In January 1981, President Reagan signed an executive order finally allowing US oil to trade freely in the open market.

In late 1981, an oil glut developed with slowing of economic activity in industrial countries, increasing production driven by high prices, and a decrease in consumption spurred by conservation measures. Oil and gold prices trended somewhat lower over the next four years and the ratio generally ranged from 11 to 13 thru 1985.

In early 1986, the Saudis got fed up with other OPEC members' non-compliance with production quotas, opened the taps to full capacity, and flooded the world with surplus oil. Prices dropped like a rock, bottoming at little more than $10 in the US and $7 in the Middle East.

The gold-oil ratio jumped into the 20s and stayed above that mark thru February of 1989. It reached highly anomalous levels above 30 for two months during 1986 and for two months in 1988. Gold traded above $400 while WTI was generally priced in the high teens after the market readjusted.

This long-lived drop in oil prices severely affected the USSR's balance of payments, leading to economic instability and its demise in 1991.

When the Exxon Valdez ran aground in southern Alaska in March 1989 and spilled 250,000 barrels of crude oil, prices popped above $20 for the first time in nearly two years. Au:WTI fell below 20 for the first time in more than three years.

The next big shock to oil markets happened when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. While gold hardly reacted to this geopolitical event, oil doubled in price. It averaged $39.57 a barrel in September and the ratio fell below 10 for that month. But much like the Gulf War, high oil prices were short-lived and in January 1991 were back to the $20 level.

The Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991 and the prices of gold and oil barely moved. For the next six years both commodities were range bound, in the $300s for gold and high teens to low twenty dollar range for oil; ratios were in the middle intervals. The 1997 world economic recession known as The Asian Contagion knocked gold below resistance at $300 in December of that year and oil fell below $12 in November 1998.

Gold remained below $300 for the next 3.5 years and many mines were shuttered. Fueled by the dotcom bubble, US stock markets were roaring by mid-1999 and world oil prices surged to $33 a barrel in November of 2000. Very low ratios were the result, commonly less than 10.

Tech stocks took NASDAQ to record highs above 5000 in March 2000 and its subsequent crash took 78% off the market value at bottom in October 2002.

Despite the chaos that ensued after the 9-11 terrorism in 2001, this geopolitical event that continues to negatively affect America's economic well-being and foreign policy had no discernible effect on gold and oil prices or ratios.

Soon an incipient bull market for commodities commenced when gold broke thru 4.5 year resistance at $310 in April 2002. Oil remained in the $30 range before starting its rise in conjunction with gold going above $400 in late 2003.

Thus began a five-year boom across the sector with record highs for the major world-exchange traded commodities including gold, oil, copper, and uranium. Gold and oil rose concomitantly and ratios were uniformly very low including record outliers below 7.0 in the spring and fall of 2005 and in mid-2008.

Gold reached a high of $1008 in mid-March 2008 and averaged $968/oz that month. Oil's all-time high of $145/bbl was set in June and the ratio hit an all-time low of 6.4.

Then Lehman Brothers failed in September and the global economic crisis followed. All commodities, including gold and oil, went parabolic within a couple of months. Gold fell to $714 in mid-November as speculators liquidated holdings to cover margin calls. Oil touched $30 in late December.

The downturn was short-lived for gold with safe-haven buying in early 2009. Gold-oil ratios more than doubled to levels in the mid- to high-teens versus the outlying single-digit base of the previous two years. Oil recovered slowly but steadily as a second leg of the secular bull market for resources commenced.

Gold soared in an exponential pattern, hitting its all-time high of $1895 an ounce in mid-September 2011 with a monthly average of $1772. A two-year top became a predictable parabolic fall in May 2013. Gold reached its nadir at $1049 in mid-December 2015 for a 45% drop off the all-time high.

Oil prices were volatile during this time, ranging mostly from the mid-$80s to low $100s a barrel. Ratios fell within our most populated range in the mid-teens.

These ratios shifted dramatically when oil crashed in Q4 of 2014, falling from an average of $106 in June to $28/bbl in January 2016. Gold was overvalued with respect to WTI (ratio >23.0) during the three-year crude oil downturn. In fact, it reached the two highest ratios ever in January and February of 2016 at 38.5 and 37.8 as all hard commodities bottomed.

Late January 2016 was the nadir of a five-year down market for gold and it rallied strongly from there, topping out at $1341 for the month of August. Oil prices also bottomed but remained severely depressed until mid-2017. Ratios were at high to anomalously high intervals until recently.

In 2018, gold averaged over $1300 from January to May. A long summer downturn combined with a strong US dollar took gold to a 2.5-year low of $1173 in mid-August. While gold has fallen, oil has rallied to a post-crash high ranging from $65 to $74 per barrel.

Recent performance illustrates that commodity ratios always normalize in due course; we have seen that over the past few months with gold and oil. At 17.3 - 17.6 from June to August, the gold-oil ratio is now within its most common 48-year historical range and is not far off the mean of 15.9 and median value of 14.7.

Fluctuations in the relative prices of gold and oil are driven by:

• overall health and growth of the world's economy.

• economic and/or geopolitical uncertainty resulting in accumulation of gold as a safe haven;

• supply-demand fundamentals for crude oil, which is used mainly as fuel for internal combustion engines but also for power generation, heating, and chemicals;

• geopolitical events that cause disruptions in oil supply and delivery;

• buying and selling of gold by central banks;

• trading and speculating in paper markets of both commodities including bullion exchanges, ETFs, futures and options, and other derivative markets.

Physical trading of gold and oil are huge markets. That said, their paper and derivative instruments are orders of magnitude larger than the physical supplies available and constitute the two largest markets traded on world commodity exchanges.

The gold to oil ratio is useful to determine if one commodity is valued fairly with respect to the other and is a useful parameter to predict future price movements. The ratio can also help determine the timing of speculations in the physical commodity itself, futures, options, and other derivatives, and/or equities and businesses that are part of the supply chain.

In the previous 24-year period (1946 to 1969), prices were fixed by fiat and an ounce of gold bought on average 13 barrels of oil. In this 48-year interval (1970-2018) with the dollar floating against gold starting in 1973 and completely deregulated WTI prices after 1980, an ounce of gold on average bought about 16 barrels of oil.

However, the greatest change has been the high variance and extreme volatility of gold-oil ratios.

Folks, this is a good lesson in how capitalism works.

In a free marketplace, prices move up and down for a variety of reasons, some of which are tabulated above for gold and oil. A free market presents multiple entry and exit points for investors, traders, and speculators to profit. I embrace this volatility and suggest that you should, too.

Now on to practical matters:

As followers are aware, I view gold as the only money. It is my insurance policy against financial calamity and economic collapse. I do not invest or speculate in gold.

As a hoarder, my basic strategy for accumulating gold or other precious metals is to buy during downticks in price regardless of bull or bear market cycles.

And indeed folks, this is what I did over the past few weeks when the price of gold headed south.

Ciao for now,

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