Can you predict when your best employee is going to quit the job?

您可以预测最佳员工何时辞职吗？

That was the question answered by former IBM CEO Ginni Rometty at a CNBC hosted HR summit in New York City some time back.

这是前IBM首席执行官Ginni Rometty在CNBC在纽约市举办的人力资源峰会上回答的问题。

“The best time to get to an employee is before they go, and we can find out when they are going,” she said.

她说：“ 找到员工的最佳时机是在他们离职之前，我们可以找到他们离职的时间 。”

IBM has created a new AI system that can predict with 95% accuracy which workers are about to quit their jobs. It is called the “predictive attrition program” which was developed with IBM’s Watson system to predict employee flight risk and prescribe actions for managers to engage employees.

IBM创建了一个新的AI系统，该系统可以95％的准确性预测哪些工人将辞职。 它被称为“预测性减员计划 ”，该计划是与IBM的Watson系统一起开发的，用于预测员工的离职风险并为经理制定与员工交往的措施。

“It took time to convince company management it was accurate,” IBM CEO Gini Rometty said, but the AI has so far saved IBM nearly $300 million in retention costs, she claimed. Further, Rometty says that the AI system can zero in on an individual’s strengths. In turn, this can enable a manager to direct an employee to future opportunities they might not be aware of using traditional methods. This will also help employees to develop skills for the future and prevent getting redundant.

她说：“ 花时间说服公司管理层是准确的 ，”但IBM人工智能迄今为IBM节省了近3亿美元的保留成本。 Rometty还说，AI系统可以充分发挥个人的优势。 反过来，这可以使经理将员工引导到他们可能不知道使用传统方法的未来机会。 这也将帮助员工发展未来的技能并防止冗余。

All this is wonderful. But it fails to answer a pertinent question.

这一切都是美好的。 但是它无法回答一个相关的问题。

Why do we need to run a sophisticated prediction analysis program on our own employees to gauge which ones are going to quit?

为什么我们需要对自己的员工运行复杂的预测分析程序，以判断哪些员工将辞职？

We are all humans after all. Do we need a machine to find out if we are unhappy? The short answer is no.

毕竟我们都是人类。 我们是否需要一台机器来找出我们是否不满意？ 最简洁的答案是不。

While AI will give the numbers and dates, it can never be a one-stop solution to address the inherent problem of an employee quitting the organization. In fact, it can aggravate the problem.

尽管AI会给出数字和日期，但它永远不是解决员工离职的内在问题的一站式解决方案。 实际上，它可以加剧问题。

And here are my two cents on it.

这是我的两分钱。

您不需要AI或任何其他技术来监视员工 (You don’t need AI or any other technology to spy on employees)

Do you understand the reasons why employees quit your company? You should. If you know why they leave, you’ll know what needs to be fixed to prevent it from happening in the future.

您了解员工辞职的原因吗？ 你应该。 如果您知道他们离开的原因，那么您将需要解决哪些问题以防止将来发生。

There are a number of common reasons people quit their jobs. The first has to do with their boss or direct manager. As you’ve heard many times before, people don’t just quit a job, they quit their boss.

人们辞职有多种常见原因。 首先与他们的老板或直接经理有关。 正如您之前多次听到的那样，人们不仅辞职，还辞退了老板。

Beyond this, there are a number of other specific reasons people leave.

除此之外，人们离开还有其他一些具体原因。

· Employees are not recognized for their contribution.

·员工的贡献不被认可。

· Lack of communication

·缺乏沟通

· No growth opportunities

·没有增长机会

· Bias or favoritism

·偏见或偏爱

· Not mentally challenged

·没有精神上的挑战

and so on…..

等等…..

So as you can see, all the above issues are glaringly visible issues that do not need any system to be brought in the forefront. Too often, we insist employees check every single rung on the skills ladder. We wrongly believe that the only way for them to advance in their career is to be good at everything all the time.

正如您所看到的，上述所有问题都是显而易见的问题，不需要任何系统来关注。 我们经常坚持要求员工检查技能阶梯上的每个梯级。 我们错误地认为，他们要取得职业发展的唯一方法就是始终精通一切。

But the truth is that you rarely find a candidate that matches 100% of your hiring criteria. This is a utopian dream which can never be realized. Instead, give your highest performers a chance to continue to excel at their strengths, and the tools they need to become an expert in their field. And If they find themselves getting bored, then you can work with them to find other skills they’d like to improve upon.

但事实是，您很少会找到符合您招聘标准100％的候选人。 这是一个无法实现的空想。 相反，给绩效最高的人一个机会，使其继续发挥自己的优势，以及成为该领域专家所需的工具。 而且，如果他们发现自己感到无聊，那么您可以与他们一起寻找其他他们希望提高的技能。

The key is keeping them engaged. Don’t let them be the one in five who report to you. Make them feel special and valued and it does not require a system to do that.

关键是保持他们的参与。 不要让他们成为向您报告的五分之一的人。 让他们感到特别和有价值，并且不需要系统来做到这一点。

对技术的依赖将减少人力资源在更换车间的作用 (Dependence on technology will reduce HR’s role to a replacement shop)

Professional employees are an asset to every company. Those people make your business flourish by carrying out high-quality work.

专业员工是每家公司的资产。 那些人通过开展高质量的工作使您的业务蒸蒸日上。

However, as more and more opportunities arise in the job market, it’s become easy to have your best employee lured away by competitors. Keeping good employees from leaving the company is simple when you have a flexible mindset and know-how to manage the working process of your company effectively.

但是，随着就业市场中越来越多的机会出现，让您最好的员工被竞争对手吸引变得容易。 当您具有灵活的思维方式和专有技术来有效地管理公司的工作流程时，让优秀的员工离开公司很简单。

And one of the prime responsibilities of the HR department is to create a high performing congenial workplace that values employees and keeps them motivated. In a nutshell, employee welfare.

人力资源部门的主要职责之一是创建一个高绩效的，舒适的工作场所，该场所重视员工并激励他们。 简而言之，就是员工福利。

Now, what will happen if HR finds out that, an employee is going to leave? What will be the first reaction to getting this crucial information?

现在，如果人力资源部发现员工要离职，会发生什么？ 获得这些关键信息的第一个React是什么？

Find a replacement immediately.

立即找到替代品。

HR will thus be in the permanent replacement mode and would devote all its energies in finding replacements and dousing the fire rather than doing something meaningful to address the reasons for attrition. Retention planning will be replaced by replacement planning.

因此，HR将处于永久替换模式，并将竭尽全力寻找替换和消灭火灾，而不是做有意义的事情来解决人员流失的原因。 保留计划将由替换计划代替。

In addition to this, the information gleaned from AI will promote tyranny.If he is leaving, why should I promote him?He is leaving anyway, why train him?No promotion for him. He is not loyal.

除此之外，从AI收集的信息还将促进专制。 如果他要离开，我为什么要升职？反正他要离开，为什么要训练他？不升职。 他不忠诚。

Ethical questions and loyalty will assume center stage and the worth of an employee would be measured by his tenure rather than his performance in the organization. These are dangerous waters to be in.

道德问题和忠诚度将占据中心位置，而员工的价值将由其任期而不是其在组织中的表现来衡量。 这些是危险的水域。

它将扼杀创造力 (It will stifle creativity)

Would you be creative if you are being watched?

如果受到关注，您会很有创造力吗？

Any AI system needs data and in this case, data would mostly come from doing things like scanning employee emails and other communications, tracking their attendance, attitudes, and behavior, watching their social-media feeds, etc.

任何AI系统都需要数据，在这种情况下，数据主要来自扫描员工的电子邮件和其他通信，跟踪其出勤，态度和行为，观看其社交媒体供稿等操作。

And any employee under constant surveillance can never be creative. It goes against the very grain of human behavior. And in such a repressive atmosphere an employee just does “enough” to survive and carry on the charade till he is able to get a better job without being caught doing on in the act. There is no creativity involved here only pure survival instinct at play.

而且，受到持续监视的任何员工都永远无法发挥创造力。 它违背了人类的行为。 在这种压抑的氛围中，员工只要“足够”生存下来就可以继续工作，直到他能够获得更好的工作而又不被该行为困扰。 这里没有创造力，只有纯粹的生存本能在起作用。

Creative minds need other creative minds in order to thrive. They need other people to support and even enhance their creativity. That will greatly improve their productivity. Creativity needs to be nurtured not monitored.

创造力需要其他创造力才能蓬勃发展。 他们需要其他人来支持甚至增强他们的创造力。 这将大大提高他们的生产率。 需要培养创造力而不加以监督。

结论性思想 (Concluding thoughts)

If you want your employees to give the job their best, then create a working environment that both encourages and nurtures their creativity.

如果您希望您的员工尽力而为，那么创造一个既能鼓励又能培养他们创造力的工作环境。

Utilize an employee’s skill set and encourage them to go beyond what’s expected. It’s easier than you think; just look for potential in staff, and call it out, give staff opportunities to go beyond their titles. Assert that failure is a learning process and encourage the journey.

利用员工的技能，并鼓励他们超越预期。 它比您想象的要容易。 只是寻找员工的潜力，然后大声疾呼，给员工提供超越职称的机会。 断言失败是一个学习过程，并鼓励旅途。

Finally, involve them. Ask your staff for solutions, opinions, and ideas. They hold a wealth of knowledge. Tap that knowledge. Let creativity run amok. Allow them to do the unexpected.

最后，让他们参与进来。 向您的员工询问解决方案，意见和想法。 他们拥有丰富的知识。 挖掘知识。 让创造力发挥作用。 让他们做意外的事情。

As Hedy Lamarr has rightly said.

正如Hedy Lamarr正确地说的。

“All creative people want to do the unexpected.”

“所有富有创造力的人都想做意外的事情。”

About the author-:Mythili is a programmer by passion and a connoisseur of fine arts like painting, calligraphy, and pottery. She writes in the twilight between relationships, creativity, and human behavior.

关于作者-：Mythili是一位热情的程序员，是绘画，书法和陶艺等美术的鉴赏家。 她在关系，创造力和人类行为之间的暮色中写作。