摘录自《流域水文模型参数不确定性量化理论方法与应用》第4章。

概述

敏感性分析最常遇到的问题:

  • 计算消耗问题:采用代理模型技术(对于复杂模型而言)或筛选方法(对于多维参数而言)
  • 输入参数的相关性问题:没有一套完整的数学理论方法量化分析,可从物理意义和实验角度考虑。如新安江模型的客观优选方法
  • 非线性问题:参数与输出之间的关系是高度复杂的非线性问题,可采用基于方差分解的理论方法
  • 模型交互作用问题:全局分析方法中的方差分解方法可以求得模型参数的二阶敏感度和总敏感度
  • 多输出变量问题:水文模型输出时变数据,如流量过程,可将模型评估目标函数值作为敏感性分析的输出变量进行分析

敏感性分析方法分类

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敏感性分析方法
抽样空间方法
局部分析
全局分析
定性
定量
量化的结果程度
筛选方法
简单 不稳定 受模型非线性 相互作用性影响大
精炼分析法
计算量大 精确化 适应于复杂模型
表达方式
数学分析法
NRSA
DSA
统计分析法
回归分析方法
秩回归分析RAA
ANOVA分析方法
基于方差分解的方法
分类与回归树分析法
响应曲面方法
图形化分析方法
SP
CS

常用敏感性分析方法

敏感性分析流程图

敏感性分析方法

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敏感性分析方法
Morris筛选法
多元回归分析方法
RSA方法
Sobol'方法
FAST和Extended FAST分析方法
基于代理模拟技术的分析方法

基于代理模拟技术的分析方法

耦合方差分解的方法和响应曲面方法,用于分析水文模型参数的一阶敏感度、二阶敏感度和总敏感度。

定性筛选与定量评价耦合方法

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