摘录自《流域水文模型参数不确定性量化理论方法与应用》第5章。

概述

#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .label{font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family);fill:#333;color:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .label text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .node rect,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .node circle,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .node ellipse,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .node polygon,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .node path{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .node .label{text-align:center;fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .node.clickable{cursor:pointer}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .arrowheadPath{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edgePath .path{stroke:#333;stroke-width:1.5px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .flowchart-link{stroke:#333;fill:none}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edgeLabel{background-color:#e8e8e8;text-align:center}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edgeLabel rect{opacity:0.9}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edgeLabel span{color:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .cluster rect{fill:#ffffde;stroke:#aa3;stroke-width:1px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .cluster text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb div.mermaidTooltip{position:absolute;text-align:center;max-width:200px;padding:2px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family);font-size:12px;background:#ffffde;border:1px solid #aa3;border-radius:2px;pointer-events:none;z-index:100}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .actor{stroke:#ccf;fill:#ECECFF}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb text.actor>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .actor-line{stroke:grey}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .messageLine0{stroke-width:1.5;stroke-dasharray:none;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .messageLine1{stroke-width:1.5;stroke-dasharray:2, 2;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #arrowhead path{fill:#333;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .sequenceNumber{fill:#fff}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #sequencenumber{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #crosshead path{fill:#333;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .messageText{fill:#333;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .labelBox{stroke:#ccf;fill:#ECECFF}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .labelText,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .labelText>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .loopText,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .loopText>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .loopLine{stroke-width:2px;stroke-dasharray:2, 2;stroke:#ccf;fill:#ccf}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .note{stroke:#aa3;fill:#fff5ad}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .noteText,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .noteText>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activation0{fill:#f4f4f4;stroke:#666}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activation1{fill:#f4f4f4;stroke:#666}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activation2{fill:#f4f4f4;stroke:#666}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .mermaid-main-font{font-family:"trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .section{stroke:none;opacity:0.2}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .section0{fill:rgba(102,102,255,0.49)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .section2{fill:#fff400}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .section1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .section3{fill:#fff;opacity:0.2}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .sectionTitle0{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .sectionTitle1{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .sectionTitle2{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .sectionTitle3{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .sectionTitle{text-anchor:start;font-size:11px;text-height:14px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .grid .tick{stroke:#d3d3d3;opacity:0.8;shape-rendering:crispEdges}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .grid .tick text{font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .grid path{stroke-width:0}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .today{fill:none;stroke:red;stroke-width:2px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .task{stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskText{text-anchor:middle;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskText:not([font-size]){font-size:11px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskTextOutsideRight{fill:#000;text-anchor:start;font-size:11px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskTextOutsideLeft{fill:#000;text-anchor:end;font-size:11px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .task.clickable{cursor:pointer}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskText.clickable{cursor:pointer;fill:#003163 !important;font-weight:bold}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskTextOutsideLeft.clickable{cursor:pointer;fill:#003163 !important;font-weight:bold}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskTextOutsideRight.clickable{cursor:pointer;fill:#003163 !important;font-weight:bold}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskText0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskText1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskText2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskText3{fill:#fff}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .task0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .task1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .task2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .task3{fill:#8a90dd;stroke:#534fbc}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskTextOutside0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskTextOutside2{fill:#000}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskTextOutside1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .taskTextOutside3{fill:#000}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .active0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .active1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .active2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .active3{fill:#bfc7ff;stroke:#534fbc}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeText0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeText1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeText2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .done0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .done1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .done2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .done3{stroke:grey;fill:#d3d3d3;stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneText0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneText1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneText2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .crit0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .crit1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .crit2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .crit3{stroke:#f88;fill:red;stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeCrit0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeCrit1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeCrit2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeCrit3{stroke:#f88;fill:#bfc7ff;stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneCrit0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneCrit1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneCrit2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneCrit3{stroke:#f88;fill:#d3d3d3;stroke-width:2;cursor:pointer;shape-rendering:crispEdges}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .milestone{transform:rotate(45deg) scale(0.8, 0.8)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .milestoneText{font-style:italic}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneCritText0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneCritText1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneCritText2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .doneCritText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeCritText0,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeCritText1,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeCritText2,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .activeCritText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .titleText{text-anchor:middle;font-size:18px;fill:#000;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.classGroup text{fill:#9370db;stroke:none;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family);font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.classGroup text .title{font-weight:bolder}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.clickable{cursor:pointer}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.classGroup rect{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.classGroup line{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .classLabel .box{stroke:none;stroke-width:0;fill:#ECECFF;opacity:0.5}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .classLabel .label{fill:#9370db;font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .relation{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1;fill:none}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .dashed-line{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #compositionStart{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #compositionEnd{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #aggregationStart{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #aggregationEnd{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #dependencyStart{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #dependencyEnd{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #extensionStart{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #extensionEnd{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .commit-id,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .commit-msg,#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .branch-label{fill:lightgrey;color:lightgrey;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .pieTitleText{text-anchor:middle;font-size:25px;fill:#000;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .slice{font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.stateGroup text{fill:#9370db;stroke:none;font-size:10px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.stateGroup text{fill:#9370db;fill:#333;stroke:none;font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.statediagram-cluster .cluster-label text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.stateGroup .state-title{font-weight:bolder;fill:#000}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.stateGroup rect{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb g.stateGroup line{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .transition{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1;fill:none}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .stateGroup .composit{fill:white;border-bottom:1px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .stateGroup .alt-composit{fill:#e0e0e0;border-bottom:1px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .state-note{stroke:#aa3;fill:#fff5ad}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .state-note text{fill:black;stroke:none;font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .stateLabel .box{stroke:none;stroke-width:0;fill:#ECECFF;opacity:0.7}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edgeLabel text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .stateLabel text{fill:#000;font-size:10px;font-weight:bold;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .node circle.state-start{fill:black;stroke:black}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .node circle.state-end{fill:black;stroke:white;stroke-width:1.5}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb #statediagram-barbEnd{fill:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-cluster rect{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-cluster rect.outer{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-state .divider{stroke:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-state .title-state{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-cluster.statediagram-cluster .inner{fill:white}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-cluster.statediagram-cluster-alt .inner{fill:#e0e0e0}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-cluster .inner{rx:0;ry:0}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-state rect.basic{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-state rect.divider{stroke-dasharray:10,10;fill:#efefef}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .note-edge{stroke-dasharray:5}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .statediagram-note rect{fill:#fff5ad;stroke:#aa3;stroke-width:1px;rx:0;ry:0}:root{--mermaid-font-family: '"trebuchet ms", verdana, arial';--mermaid-font-family: "Comic Sans MS", "Comic Sans", cursive}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .error-icon{fill:#522}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .error-text{fill:#522;stroke:#522}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edge-thickness-normal{stroke-width:2px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edge-thickness-thick{stroke-width:3.5px}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edge-pattern-solid{stroke-dasharray:0}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;} #mermaid-svg-EhUXzi8dmphIEQsb {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}

参数识别研究

基于优化思想的参数识别思路

基于不确定分析的参数识别思路

前提是可识别性水文模型模型参数不可识别性严重

基于贝叶斯理论使用先验分布即未知参数的分布信息如RSA GLUE

根据贝叶斯理论，参数的先验分布 p ( θ ) p(\theta) p(θ)、样本信息和后验分布具有如下关系：
p ( θ ∣ y ) = p ( y ∣ θ ) p ( θ ) p ( y ) p(\theta|y) = \frac{p(y|\theta)p(\theta)}{p(y)} p(θ∣y)=p(y)p(y∣θ)p(θ)

水文模型常用不确定性分析方法

GLUE方法

该方法是基于Hornberger和Spear提出的RSA方法发展起来的，其结合蒙特卡罗随机取样和贝叶斯理论，对不同参数组合的模型进行不确定性分析，是目前应用较为广泛的方法。

GLUE方法的一个很重要的观点是：导致模型模拟结果的好坏不是模型的单个参数，而是模型参数的组合。

主要步骤为：

似然判据的定义。
确定参数的初始范围和先验分布函数。
加权参数组的似然判据值。
当有新的数据时，利用贝叶斯函数，以递推方式更新加权后的似然判据值。

GLUE方法的缺陷：

需要确定每个参数的取值范围，根据参数的物理意义或个人的主观经验来定。
需要确定获取参数样本空间的方法，在大多数GLUE方法的应用中都是采用Monte Carlo方法计算，在参数取值范围内随机抽样，是均匀分布；
方法要确定似然函数（即似然度的计算方法）以及似然函数的临界值，判别“可接受”和“不可接受”的结果。

贝叶斯方法

#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .label{font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family);fill:#333;color:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .label text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .node rect,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .node circle,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .node ellipse,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .node polygon,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .node path{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .node .label{text-align:center;fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .node.clickable{cursor:pointer}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .arrowheadPath{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edgePath .path{stroke:#333;stroke-width:1.5px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .flowchart-link{stroke:#333;fill:none}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edgeLabel{background-color:#e8e8e8;text-align:center}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edgeLabel rect{opacity:0.9}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edgeLabel span{color:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .cluster rect{fill:#ffffde;stroke:#aa3;stroke-width:1px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .cluster text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT div.mermaidTooltip{position:absolute;text-align:center;max-width:200px;padding:2px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family);font-size:12px;background:#ffffde;border:1px solid #aa3;border-radius:2px;pointer-events:none;z-index:100}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .actor{stroke:#ccf;fill:#ECECFF}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT text.actor>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .actor-line{stroke:grey}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .messageLine0{stroke-width:1.5;stroke-dasharray:none;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .messageLine1{stroke-width:1.5;stroke-dasharray:2, 2;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #arrowhead path{fill:#333;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .sequenceNumber{fill:#fff}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #sequencenumber{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #crosshead path{fill:#333;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .messageText{fill:#333;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .labelBox{stroke:#ccf;fill:#ECECFF}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .labelText,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .labelText>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .loopText,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .loopText>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .loopLine{stroke-width:2px;stroke-dasharray:2, 2;stroke:#ccf;fill:#ccf}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .note{stroke:#aa3;fill:#fff5ad}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .noteText,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .noteText>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activation0{fill:#f4f4f4;stroke:#666}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activation1{fill:#f4f4f4;stroke:#666}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activation2{fill:#f4f4f4;stroke:#666}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .mermaid-main-font{font-family:"trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .section{stroke:none;opacity:0.2}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .section0{fill:rgba(102,102,255,0.49)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .section2{fill:#fff400}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .section1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .section3{fill:#fff;opacity:0.2}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .sectionTitle0{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .sectionTitle1{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .sectionTitle2{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .sectionTitle3{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .sectionTitle{text-anchor:start;font-size:11px;text-height:14px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .grid .tick{stroke:#d3d3d3;opacity:0.8;shape-rendering:crispEdges}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .grid .tick text{font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .grid path{stroke-width:0}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .today{fill:none;stroke:red;stroke-width:2px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .task{stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskText{text-anchor:middle;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskText:not([font-size]){font-size:11px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskTextOutsideRight{fill:#000;text-anchor:start;font-size:11px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskTextOutsideLeft{fill:#000;text-anchor:end;font-size:11px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .task.clickable{cursor:pointer}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskText.clickable{cursor:pointer;fill:#003163 !important;font-weight:bold}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskTextOutsideLeft.clickable{cursor:pointer;fill:#003163 !important;font-weight:bold}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskTextOutsideRight.clickable{cursor:pointer;fill:#003163 !important;font-weight:bold}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskText0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskText1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskText2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskText3{fill:#fff}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .task0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .task1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .task2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .task3{fill:#8a90dd;stroke:#534fbc}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskTextOutside0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskTextOutside2{fill:#000}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskTextOutside1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .taskTextOutside3{fill:#000}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .active0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .active1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .active2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .active3{fill:#bfc7ff;stroke:#534fbc}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeText0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeText1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeText2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .done0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .done1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .done2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .done3{stroke:grey;fill:#d3d3d3;stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneText0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneText1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneText2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .crit0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .crit1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .crit2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .crit3{stroke:#f88;fill:red;stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeCrit0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeCrit1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeCrit2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeCrit3{stroke:#f88;fill:#bfc7ff;stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneCrit0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneCrit1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneCrit2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneCrit3{stroke:#f88;fill:#d3d3d3;stroke-width:2;cursor:pointer;shape-rendering:crispEdges}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .milestone{transform:rotate(45deg) scale(0.8, 0.8)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .milestoneText{font-style:italic}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneCritText0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneCritText1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneCritText2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .doneCritText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeCritText0,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeCritText1,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeCritText2,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .activeCritText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .titleText{text-anchor:middle;font-size:18px;fill:#000;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.classGroup text{fill:#9370db;stroke:none;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family);font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.classGroup text .title{font-weight:bolder}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.clickable{cursor:pointer}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.classGroup rect{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.classGroup line{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .classLabel .box{stroke:none;stroke-width:0;fill:#ECECFF;opacity:0.5}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .classLabel .label{fill:#9370db;font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .relation{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1;fill:none}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .dashed-line{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #compositionStart{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #compositionEnd{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #aggregationStart{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #aggregationEnd{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #dependencyStart{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #dependencyEnd{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #extensionStart{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #extensionEnd{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .commit-id,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .commit-msg,#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .branch-label{fill:lightgrey;color:lightgrey;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .pieTitleText{text-anchor:middle;font-size:25px;fill:#000;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .slice{font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.stateGroup text{fill:#9370db;stroke:none;font-size:10px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.stateGroup text{fill:#9370db;fill:#333;stroke:none;font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.statediagram-cluster .cluster-label text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.stateGroup .state-title{font-weight:bolder;fill:#000}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.stateGroup rect{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT g.stateGroup line{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .transition{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1;fill:none}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .stateGroup .composit{fill:white;border-bottom:1px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .stateGroup .alt-composit{fill:#e0e0e0;border-bottom:1px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .state-note{stroke:#aa3;fill:#fff5ad}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .state-note text{fill:black;stroke:none;font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .stateLabel .box{stroke:none;stroke-width:0;fill:#ECECFF;opacity:0.7}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edgeLabel text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .stateLabel text{fill:#000;font-size:10px;font-weight:bold;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .node circle.state-start{fill:black;stroke:black}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .node circle.state-end{fill:black;stroke:white;stroke-width:1.5}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT #statediagram-barbEnd{fill:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-cluster rect{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-cluster rect.outer{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-state .divider{stroke:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-state .title-state{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-cluster.statediagram-cluster .inner{fill:white}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-cluster.statediagram-cluster-alt .inner{fill:#e0e0e0}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-cluster .inner{rx:0;ry:0}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-state rect.basic{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-state rect.divider{stroke-dasharray:10,10;fill:#efefef}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .note-edge{stroke-dasharray:5}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .statediagram-note rect{fill:#fff5ad;stroke:#aa3;stroke-width:1px;rx:0;ry:0}:root{--mermaid-font-family: '"trebuchet ms", verdana, arial';--mermaid-font-family: "Comic Sans MS", "Comic Sans", cursive}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .error-icon{fill:#522}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .error-text{fill:#522;stroke:#522}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edge-thickness-normal{stroke-width:2px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edge-thickness-thick{stroke-width:3.5px}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edge-pattern-solid{stroke-dasharray:0}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;} #mermaid-svg-nyXHAuHpXLjdI2YT {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}

综合分析各种不确定性来源的方法

基于贝叶斯理论框架的水文预报系统 BFS

贝叶斯总误差分析方法 BATEA

贝叶斯不确定性估计量 IBUNE

单个不确定性来源的分析方法

贝叶斯递归估计方法

MCMC

贝叶斯模型平均方法 BMA

AM算法

并行自适应的Metropolis PAM 算法

贝叶斯方法用于不确定性分析方法的参数识别的思想已经得到广泛认可，但由于巨大的计算量，只适应参数个数较少的情况，当参数个数超过3~5个时，即使采用高性能计算机进行模拟，也面临着计算复杂性的问题。

其他方法

美国环保部网站提供了70多个模型评价方法，总结如下：

基于代理模型和MCMC的分析方法

Maokov Chain Monte Carlo ：MCMC

#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .label{font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family);fill:#333;color:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .label text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .node rect,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .node circle,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .node ellipse,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .node polygon,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .node path{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .node .label{text-align:center;fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .node.clickable{cursor:pointer}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .arrowheadPath{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edgePath .path{stroke:#333;stroke-width:1.5px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .flowchart-link{stroke:#333;fill:none}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edgeLabel{background-color:#e8e8e8;text-align:center}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edgeLabel rect{opacity:0.9}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edgeLabel span{color:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .cluster rect{fill:#ffffde;stroke:#aa3;stroke-width:1px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .cluster text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF div.mermaidTooltip{position:absolute;text-align:center;max-width:200px;padding:2px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family);font-size:12px;background:#ffffde;border:1px solid #aa3;border-radius:2px;pointer-events:none;z-index:100}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .actor{stroke:#ccf;fill:#ECECFF}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF text.actor>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .actor-line{stroke:grey}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .messageLine0{stroke-width:1.5;stroke-dasharray:none;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .messageLine1{stroke-width:1.5;stroke-dasharray:2, 2;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #arrowhead path{fill:#333;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .sequenceNumber{fill:#fff}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #sequencenumber{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #crosshead path{fill:#333;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .messageText{fill:#333;stroke:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .labelBox{stroke:#ccf;fill:#ECECFF}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .labelText,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .labelText>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .loopText,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .loopText>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .loopLine{stroke-width:2px;stroke-dasharray:2, 2;stroke:#ccf;fill:#ccf}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .note{stroke:#aa3;fill:#fff5ad}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .noteText,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .noteText>tspan{fill:#000;stroke:none}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activation0{fill:#f4f4f4;stroke:#666}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activation1{fill:#f4f4f4;stroke:#666}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activation2{fill:#f4f4f4;stroke:#666}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .mermaid-main-font{font-family:"trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .section{stroke:none;opacity:0.2}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .section0{fill:rgba(102,102,255,0.49)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .section2{fill:#fff400}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .section1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .section3{fill:#fff;opacity:0.2}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .sectionTitle0{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .sectionTitle1{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .sectionTitle2{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .sectionTitle3{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .sectionTitle{text-anchor:start;font-size:11px;text-height:14px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .grid .tick{stroke:#d3d3d3;opacity:0.8;shape-rendering:crispEdges}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .grid .tick text{font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .grid path{stroke-width:0}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .today{fill:none;stroke:red;stroke-width:2px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .task{stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskText{text-anchor:middle;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskText:not([font-size]){font-size:11px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskTextOutsideRight{fill:#000;text-anchor:start;font-size:11px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskTextOutsideLeft{fill:#000;text-anchor:end;font-size:11px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .task.clickable{cursor:pointer}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskText.clickable{cursor:pointer;fill:#003163 !important;font-weight:bold}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskTextOutsideLeft.clickable{cursor:pointer;fill:#003163 !important;font-weight:bold}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskTextOutsideRight.clickable{cursor:pointer;fill:#003163 !important;font-weight:bold}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskText0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskText1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskText2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskText3{fill:#fff}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .task0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .task1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .task2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .task3{fill:#8a90dd;stroke:#534fbc}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskTextOutside0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskTextOutside2{fill:#000}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskTextOutside1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .taskTextOutside3{fill:#000}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .active0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .active1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .active2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .active3{fill:#bfc7ff;stroke:#534fbc}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeText0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeText1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeText2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .done0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .done1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .done2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .done3{stroke:grey;fill:#d3d3d3;stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneText0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneText1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneText2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .crit0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .crit1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .crit2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .crit3{stroke:#f88;fill:red;stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeCrit0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeCrit1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeCrit2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeCrit3{stroke:#f88;fill:#bfc7ff;stroke-width:2}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneCrit0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneCrit1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneCrit2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneCrit3{stroke:#f88;fill:#d3d3d3;stroke-width:2;cursor:pointer;shape-rendering:crispEdges}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .milestone{transform:rotate(45deg) scale(0.8, 0.8)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .milestoneText{font-style:italic}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneCritText0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneCritText1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneCritText2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .doneCritText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeCritText0,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeCritText1,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeCritText2,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .activeCritText3{fill:#000 !important}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .titleText{text-anchor:middle;font-size:18px;fill:#000;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.classGroup text{fill:#9370db;stroke:none;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family);font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.classGroup text .title{font-weight:bolder}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.clickable{cursor:pointer}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.classGroup rect{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.classGroup line{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .classLabel .box{stroke:none;stroke-width:0;fill:#ECECFF;opacity:0.5}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .classLabel .label{fill:#9370db;font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .relation{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1;fill:none}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .dashed-line{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #compositionStart{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #compositionEnd{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #aggregationStart{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #aggregationEnd{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #dependencyStart{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #dependencyEnd{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #extensionStart{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #extensionEnd{fill:#9370db;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .commit-id,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .commit-msg,#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .branch-label{fill:lightgrey;color:lightgrey;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .pieTitleText{text-anchor:middle;font-size:25px;fill:#000;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .slice{font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.stateGroup text{fill:#9370db;stroke:none;font-size:10px;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.stateGroup text{fill:#9370db;fill:#333;stroke:none;font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.statediagram-cluster .cluster-label text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.stateGroup .state-title{font-weight:bolder;fill:#000}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.stateGroup rect{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF g.stateGroup line{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .transition{stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1;fill:none}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .stateGroup .composit{fill:white;border-bottom:1px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .stateGroup .alt-composit{fill:#e0e0e0;border-bottom:1px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .state-note{stroke:#aa3;fill:#fff5ad}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .state-note text{fill:black;stroke:none;font-size:10px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .stateLabel .box{stroke:none;stroke-width:0;fill:#ECECFF;opacity:0.7}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edgeLabel text{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .stateLabel text{fill:#000;font-size:10px;font-weight:bold;font-family:'trebuchet ms', verdana, arial;font-family:var(--mermaid-font-family)}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .node circle.state-start{fill:black;stroke:black}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .node circle.state-end{fill:black;stroke:white;stroke-width:1.5}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF #statediagram-barbEnd{fill:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-cluster rect{fill:#ECECFF;stroke:#9370db;stroke-width:1px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-cluster rect.outer{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-state .divider{stroke:#9370db}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-state .title-state{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-cluster.statediagram-cluster .inner{fill:white}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-cluster.statediagram-cluster-alt .inner{fill:#e0e0e0}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-cluster .inner{rx:0;ry:0}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-state rect.basic{rx:5px;ry:5px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-state rect.divider{stroke-dasharray:10,10;fill:#efefef}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .note-edge{stroke-dasharray:5}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .statediagram-note rect{fill:#fff5ad;stroke:#aa3;stroke-width:1px;rx:0;ry:0}:root{--mermaid-font-family: '"trebuchet ms", verdana, arial';--mermaid-font-family: "Comic Sans MS", "Comic Sans", cursive}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .error-icon{fill:#522}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .error-text{fill:#522;stroke:#522}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edge-thickness-normal{stroke-width:2px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edge-thickness-thick{stroke-width:3.5px}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edge-pattern-solid{stroke-dasharray:0}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edge-pattern-dashed{stroke-dasharray:3}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .edge-pattern-dotted{stroke-dasharray:2}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .marker{fill:#333}#mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF .marker.cross{stroke:#333}:root { --mermaid-font-family: "trebuchet ms", verdana, arial;} #mermaid-svg-9ol77z68gBEpr0sF {color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75);font: ;}

MCMC采样算法

Metropolis-Hastings算法

Gibbs算法

自适应的Metropolis算法

【水文模型】05 参数不确定性分析方法相关推荐

特征选择（模型输入参数的分析选择）方法汇总
特征选择是模式识别和机器学习领域的重要研究课题之一.为了提高准确率, 人们往往最大限度地提取特征信息.然而, 过大的特征向量维数不仅导致计算成本的增加, 复杂运算也随之带来分类识别率的下降.因此, 通 ...
基于Python的随机森林（RF）回归与多种模型超参数自动优化方法
本文详细介绍基于Python的随机森林(Random Forest)回归算法代码与模型超参数(包括决策树个数与最大深度.最小分离样本数.最小叶子节点样本数.最大分离特征数等等)自动优化代码. ...
【水文模型】07 《流域水文模型参数不确定性量化理论方法与应用》宋晓猛阅读笔记
2021/9/27-10/13,阅读<流域水文模型参数不确定性量化理论方法与应用>宋晓猛,笔记如下. 第1章绪论深入浅出地讲解了模型不确定性的研究进展. 第2章分布式水文模型理论与方 ...
【LEAP模型】能源环境发展及碳排放建模预测及不确定性分析
在国家"3060"碳达峰碳中和的政策背景下,如何寻求经济-能源-环境的平衡有效发展是国家.省份.城市及园区等不同级别经济体的重要课题.根据国家政策.当地能源结构.能源技术发展水平以 ...
LEAP能源供应转换、能源需求及碳排放预测中的基础数据搜集及处理、能源平衡表核算、模型框架构建、模型操作、情景设计、结果分析、优化、预测结果不确定性分析
采用部门分析法建立的LEAP(Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning System/ Low emission analysis platform,长期能源可替 ...
水文模型有哪些？SWAT模型、VIC模型、HEC模型、HSPF模型、HYPE模型、SWMM模型、FVCOM模型、Delft3D模型等应用
目录㈠从小白到精通SWAT模型学习建模方法.实例应用.高级进阶㈡ R+VIC模型融合实践技术应用及未来气候变化模型预测㈢ HEC-RAS一维.二维建模方法及实践技术应用㈣ HEC-HMS水文 ...
CASA模型、CENTURY模型应用与案例分析
植被作为陆地生态系统的重要组成部分对于生态环境功能的维持具有关键作用.植被净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity, NPP)是指单位面积上绿色植被在单位时间内由光合作用生产的有 ...
非确定性算法_使用最坏情况提高基于MPC的避障算法对参数不确定性的鲁棒性
编者按:避障问题是AGV行驶过程中的一个重点,尤其是在未知和非结构化的环境中,没有关于环境的先验知识以及准确的车辆模型参数,难以充分发挥车辆的性能.作者在以前工作中,提出了在未知和非结构化环境中基于非 ...
针对网络脆弱性的攻击图分析方法总结
简介目前,有很多网络攻击.网络脆弱性的评估方法,如攻击树.Petri网.攻击图等.攻击图在1997年被提出,已经成为解决网络安全问题广泛使用的方法之一.由于网络拓扑本身就是图结构,攻击图方法主要描述 ...

【水文模型】05 参数不确定性分析方法

概述