【数学建模】基于SIR模型实现新冠病毒COVID-19估计附matlab代码

1 内容介绍

COVID-19是由严重急性呼吸综合症冠状病毒2型引发的传染病，它最初病毒携带者是一些动物，传染源主要是COVID-19患者，无症状患者。传播方式主要是呼吸道飞沫近距离传播，接触传播，还有一些其他的传播方式待后续科研工作进一步证实。2019年12月，目前尚不知来源的新型冠状病毒COVID-19首先被报道于湖北省武汉市，随后由于寒假以及春运返潮等大规模人口流动，2020年1月底COVID-19蔓延扩散至全中国范围，使中国成为新型冠状病毒肺炎的重灾区;2020年3月底，COVID-19几乎肆虐地球上每一个国家，给全世界人民的生命安全和身体健康带来巨大威胁，给各国医护防控人员带来繁重的任务和巨大的压力，给世界经济带来严重阻力。因此，对COVID-19展开科学研究，探索它的传播机制，阻断它的传播渠道，能给COVID-19预防提供参考，控制提供数量依据，具有不可轻视的作用。　

2 仿真代码

function importTotalCases

% write the results of parsing into the 'data' directory (MB 20/04/23)

oldFolder = cd('data');

pwd

% get the current date in YYYYMMDD format

currentDateYYYYMMDD = strrep(datestr(date, 26), '/', '');

% set the filenames

fileCSV = ['totalcases', currentDateYYYYMMDD, '.csv'];

fileXLSX = ['totalcases', currentDateYYYYMMDD, '.xlsx'];

% import data from <https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data>

% download the 'totalcase.csv' file

tcFileCSV = websave(fileCSV,'https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/ecdc/total_cases.csv');

% read the CSV file, and then save it to XLSX format

TMPFILE = readtable(fileCSV);

writetable(TMPFILE,fileXLSX);

% we will write the results of parsing into the appropriate folder;

% in order to use the original Milan Batista's code, we put:

path = pwd;

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

%%% STEP 2: Split the data for individual countries %%%

%%% Milan Batista's original code for parsing %%%

%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%

Amin = 5; % data les than Amin will be deleted from file begining

% get table

T = readtable(fileXLSX);

% get data

A = T{:,2:end};

[nrow,ncol] = size(A);

% table column names

name = string(T.Properties.VariableNames);

name = name(2:end)';

% start date

date0 = datenum(T{1,1}); %datenum(txt{2,1},'dd.mm.yyyy'); %datenum('2019/12/31');

% end date

%date1 = date0 + nrow - 1;

%functions names

ffname = strings(ncol,1);

nn = 0;

for n = 1:ncol

nname = name{n};

if strcmp("",nname)

continue

end

nn = nn + 1;

nname = strrep(nname,' ','_');

nname = strrep(nname,'-','_');

nname = strrep(nname,'''','_');

nname = strrep(nname,'(','_');

nname = strrep(nname,')','_');

fname = sprintf('getData%s.m',nname);

fid = fopen(fullfile(path,fname),'w');

if fid < 0

fprintf('***Fail to open %s\n',fname);

continue

end

fprintf('%d/%d country %s ...\n',ncol,n,nname);

ffname(nn) = nname;

fprintf(fid,'function [country,C,date0] = getData%s()\n',nname);

fprintf(fid,'%%GETDATA%s Coronavirus data for %s\n',upper(nname),nname);

fprintf(fid,'%% as reported by One World in Data\n');

fprintf(fid,'%% https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data\n');

fprintf(fid,'country = ''%s'';\n',strrep(name(n),' ','_'));

fprintf(fid,'C = [\n');

found = false;

nday = 0;

for m = 1:nrow

if ~found && (isnan(A(m,n)) || A(m,n) == 0 || A(m,n) < Amin)

nday = nday + 1;

continue

else

found = true;

end

fprintf(fid,' %9d %% %s\n',A(m,n),datestr(date0 + m - 1));

end

fprintf(fid,'%%<-------------- add new data here\n');

fprintf(fid,']'';\n');

% start date

fprintf(fid,'date0=datenum(''%s'');\n',datestr(date0 + nday));

fprintf(fid,'end\n');

fclose(fid);

%generete driver rutine

fname = 'runAll.m';

fid = fopen(fullfile(path,fname),'w');

if fid < 0

fprintf('***Fail to open %s\n',fname);

continue

end

fprintf(fid,'prn = ''off'';\n');

fprintf(fid,'plt = ''on'';\n');

for n = 1:nn

fprintf(fid,'try\n');

fprintf(fid,' fitVirusCV19(@getData%s,''prn'',prn,''jpg'',plt)\n',...

ffname(n));

fprintf(fid,'end\n');

end

fclose(fid);

cd(oldFolder)

end

3 运行结果

4 参考文献

[1]任中贵. 基于SIR模型的COVID-19疫情数据分析[J]. 电子元器件与信息技术, 2020, 4(7):3.

[2]成红胜, 成诚. 基于COVID-19传染病SIR模型的稳定性分析[J]. 淮阴师范学院学报:自然科学版, 2021, 20(4):6.

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