The long-timeline to the 5G revolution is about to reach its end

5G革命的漫长时光即将结束

As phone makers and cellular plan providers start to advertise their 5G capabilities it is reasonable to think that the 5G revolution is here. Everyone’s talking about 5G. We’ve heard that “5G is coming” for so long, it seems hard to look up from our slow cell phones and ask “is this it, is it here”. What does 5G mean, and where is it?

随着电话制造商和蜂窝计划提供商开始宣传其5G功能，可以合理地认为5G革命已经来临。 大家都在谈论5G。 我们已经听到“ 5G即将到来”这么长时间了，似乎很难从我们速度较慢的手机上抬起头来，问“这就是它吗，它在这里”。 5G是什么意思，它在哪里？

Simply put, 5G is the fifth generation of cellular wireless and mobile technology. 5G promises to deliver speeds in excess of 1 Gigabits per second approximately 10 times faster than current 4G capabilities with and ultra-low latency. Realistically this should make possible a massive transition to device connection with the “internet of things”.

简而言之，5G是蜂窝无线和移动技术的第五代。 5G承诺以超过1Gbps的速度提供每秒超过1 Gigabit的速度，这是目前4G功能的超快速度，并且具有超低延迟。 实际上，这应该使大规模过渡到与“物联网”的设备连接成为可能。

5G aims to address the ever-increasing demand for more bandwidth, speed, and data traffic. It’s estimated that by 2024, 25 percent of mobile data traffic will be carried by 5G networks. That’s approximately 30 percent more traffic than is carried by 4G/3G/2G networks today. While this is impressive, it is also estimated that there will be more than 60 times growth in mobile data traffic from 2013–2024.

5G旨在满足对更大带宽，速度和数据流量的不断增长的需求。 据估计，到2024年，5G网络将承载25％的移动数据流量。 这比今天的4G / 3G / 2G网络传输的流量大约多30％。 尽管这令人印象深刻，但据估计，从2013年至2024年，移动数据流量的增长将超过60倍。

我们是怎么来到这里的？ (How did we get here?)

It seems worthwhile to talk about the development of the cellular technology to better understand 5G and have greater appreciation for the future.

谈论蜂窝技术的发展似乎是值得的，以便更好地了解5G并对未来有更大的赞赏。

1G sounds ridiculous, but then again I wasn’t alive in 1983 when it was delivered. The radio signals used by 1G networks are analog. This gave a whopping 2.4 kilobits per second.

1G听起来很荒谬，但是在1983年交付时，我还活着。 1G网络使用的无线电信号是模拟的。 这样就产生了高达每秒2.4 kb的速度。

2G which largely replaced 1G came about in 1991 allowing for 01. megabits per second. This gave rise to sms text capabilities.

1991年出现的2G基本上取代了1G，允许每秒01. Mbps的速度。 这引起了短信文本功能。

3G was perhaps the first speed many younger people remember from the slow Facebook browsing they could perform on their flip or slide-out keyboard phone. The earliest days of 3G were in 1998. 3G capabilities range from 1–8 megabits per second.

3G可能是许多年轻人从Facebook缓慢的浏览中记住的第一速，他们可以在翻盖或滑出式键盘电话上执行该操作。 3G最早出现在1998年。3G的能力范围为每秒1至8兆比特。

4G technology was a large step up from what came before, and needs no real introduction since most of us still live with its capabilities (and confines) today. 4G allows for about 15–100 megabits per second. The world began giving way to 4G in 2008, with the fast internet browsing, video streaming and video conferencing capabilities.

4G技术比以前有了很大的进步，并且不需要真正的介绍，因为我们大多数人仍然生活在今天的能力(和局限)内。 4G允许每秒约15–100兆位。 快速的Internet浏览，视频流和视频会议功能于2008年开始被4G取代。

You might have noticed that each of these sites a year earlier than when you might have had access to the technology. That is a reminder that reality of these technologies take some time from their conception, proof of concept, into implementation. 5G technology is here, it is being proven, but we are a long way from ubiquity.

您可能已经注意到，每个站点都比您可以使用该技术的时间早一年。 这提醒人们，这些技术的现实需要一段时间才能从其概念(概念验证)到实现。 5G技术已经来临，它已经被证明，但是距离普遍性还有很长的路要走。

5G may promise speeds of .1–1 gigabits per second, thus revolutionizing our society such as self driving cars communicating to each other on the road or ultra responsive remote robotic surgeries without latency. The reality is obviously more humbled, and will be for quite some time. In many parts of the United States you will struggle to get quality 3G capabilities. Again, a technology developed in the late 90s.

5G可以保证每秒1-1吉比特的速度，从而彻底改变了我们的社会，例如无人驾驶汽车在道路上相互通信或无延迟的超灵敏远程机器人手术。 现实显然更加卑微，并将持续相当长的一段时间。 在美国许多地方，您将很难获得优质的3G功能。 同样，这项技术是在90年代后期开发的。

This isn’t to throw cold water on the 5G optimists and all that it promises. We should remember that the 5G revolution won’t be instantaneous like many of the flashy new cell phone or cell network commercials would have you believe. Instead, the transition takes time to reach a critical mass and it will happen in cities and other areas far earlier than it takes hold “everywhere”.

这并不是要对5G乐观主义者及其所承诺的一切泼冷水。 我们应该记住，5G革命不会像许多浮华的新手机或蜂窝网络商业广告那样让您相信。 取而代之的是，过渡过程需要时间才能达到临界点，并且将在城市和其他地区发生，要比在“任何地方”都早。

5G is here, now, but it is not widespread. It’s been in the works for nearly a decade, but it took about 25 years to go from first generation analog cellular (1G) to move into 4G.

5G现在就在这里，但尚未普及。 它已经投入使用了近十年，但从第一代模拟蜂窝(1G)进入4G大约需要25年的时间。

Steps are being taken to get 5G off the ground in the United States. The first release of 5G, in late 2017 by the 3rd generation partnership project (3GPP) was for non-stand-alone New Radio (NR). In June 2018, 3GPP finalized its release for stand-alon 5G.

美国正在采取措施使5G面世。 第三代合作伙伴计划 (3GPP)于2017年末发布了5G的第一版，该版本用于非独立的新无线电(NR)。 3GPP于2018年6月完成了其标准5G版本的发布。

Additionally, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), an agency of the United Nations tasked with establishing standards associated with communications and technology on an international level, is working on a set of 5G standards known as International Mobile Technologies-2020

此外，联合国机构国际电信联盟(ITU)的任务是建立与国际水平上的通信和技术相关的标准，该组织正在制定一套称为国际移动技术2020的5G标准。

Currently, all the major carriers are rolling out fixed and mobile 5G services, but exclusively in a handful of cities. As of November 2019, there were 46 5G networks launched in the US. Every year that number will increase exponentially, but in 2020 in the United States we can only expect more 5G networks in densely populated urban areas.

当前，所有主要运营商都在少数几个城市推出固定和移动5G服务。 截至2019年11月， 在美国推出了46个5G网络 。 每年，这个数字都会成倍增加，但是到2020年，在美国，我们只能期望在人口稠密的城市地区拥有更多的5G网络。

So you might be wondering: “When will 5G really arrive for me?”

因此，您可能会想：“ 5G何时真正为我到达？”

别担心，现在不会很快。 (Don’t worry it won’t be long now.)

Obviously, there are a few answers to how long you will have to wait depending on where you live, what carriers you have (or would have access to), your ability to buy a 5G devices, and a myriad of other concerns. The short answer is: By 2022 you’ll start to see more advanced 5G infrastructure outside of just major cities and the 5G phones will become more cost effective and hit mainstream use.

显然，根据您的居住地，拥有(或可以使用)的运营商，购买5G设备的能力以及众多其他问题，您需要等待多长时间会有一些答案。 简短的答案是：到2022年，您将开始在主要城市之外看到更先进的5G基础设施，而5G手机将变得更具成本效益，并成为主流用途。

5G subscribers are expected to reach 1.1 billion by 2023 across the Asia-Pacific and North America regions, where the next-generation network has been launched. That would be triple the number of subscribers 4G reached in the same five-year time period after launching.

到2023年 ，亚太地区和北美地区(已启动下一代网络)的5G用户预计将达到11亿 。 在启动后的同一五年时间内，这将是4G用户数量的三倍。

5G infrastructure will be the main hurdle. There are a number of reasons why the 5G infrastructure is taking so long.

5G基础设施将是主要障碍。 5G基础设施耗时如此长的原因有很多。

First, is the high-cost to physically implement the 5G millimeter wave network. There are three-frequency bands that 5G networks can operate on: sub-3 GHz (the low band), 3GHz to 7 GHz (the mid-band), and the faster 24 GHz and above millimeter waves. The lower bands overlap with 4G and that infrastructure could be utilized, but the higher frequencies will require more and newer infrastructure.

首先，物理上实现5G毫米波网络是高成本。 5G网络可以在三个频段上运行：低于3 GHz(低频段)，3 GHz至7 GHz(中频段)以及更快的24 GHz及以上毫米波。 较低的频段与4G重叠，可以利用该基础架构，但是较高的频率将需要更多和更新的基础架构。

Second, is the acquisition of local regulatory approvals for construction of the antennas, and the general lack of regulatory clarity around 5G. Because of the shorter wavelengths, 5G requires far more wireless antenna connections than 4G, which is one of the primary reason it is now only available in densely populated areas.

其次，是获得了当地有关天线构造的监管批准，以及围绕5G普遍缺乏监管的明确性。 由于波长较短，因此5G需要比4G多得多的无线天线连接，这是它现在只能在人口稠密地区使用的主要原因之一。

Telecom companies no what it takes to overcome these obstacles. Over the next 10–15 years 5G will also drive new global infrastructure projects. It is estimated that telecom companies will invest as much as $275 billion into 5G infrastructure before 2025.

电信公司无须克服这些障碍。 在接下来的10-15年中，5G也将推动新的全球基础设施项目。 据估计，到2025年之前，电信公司将在5G基础设施上投资高达2,750亿美元。

The last, is the availability of devices. 2020 and all those commercials for 5G are probably premature, but this year we are already seeing a meaningful impact on the consumer. Whether they will see the full impact of the technology or not, consumers are demanding the theoretical capabilities. According to Deloitte’s first US connectivity and Mobile Trends survey, 67 percent of consumers said that they would be more likely to buy a new smartphone if it had 5G-compatibility.

最后，是设备的可用性。 2020年以及所有用于5G的商业广告可能还为时过早，但今年我们已经看到了对消费者的有意义的影响。 不管他们是否看到技术的全部影响，消费者都要求理论上的能力。 根据德勤(Deloitte)首次在美国进行的连接性和移动趋势调查 ，有67％的消费者表示，如果具有5G兼容性，他们将更有可能购买新的智能手机。

IHS markit predicts that 5G’s full economic impact should be realized by 2035 and could produce up to $13.2 trillion attributable worth of goods and services as enabled by 5G mobile technology and support up to 22.3 million jobs!

IHS Markit预测 5G的全部经济影响应在2035年之前实现，并可能通过5G移动技术实现高达13.2万亿美元的商品和服务价值，并支持多达2230万个工作岗位！

This is a reminder that the short term promise of 5G ubiquity is an illusion, but the long-term opportunity and gains will be there. When I was (even) younger, I couldn’t imagine what my cell phone can do now. I was happy with my slow loading internet and SMS/call only communication. Now about 10 years later, I throw a fit when my 4G drops to 3G or lower. Technology can and does proceed quickly, but never overnight.

这提醒我们，5G普遍存在的短期前景是一种幻想，但长期机会和收益将在那里。 当我(甚至)年轻的时候，我无法想象我的手机现在能做什么。 我对缓慢的Internet连接和SMS /仅呼叫通信感到满意。 现在大约10年后，当我的4G降至3G或更低时，我感到很满意。 技术可以而且确实会Swift进行，但绝不会一overnight而就。