来源/ft.com

翻译/章鱼哥

在2021年初，还只有一部分加密爱好者知道什么是NFT。

但根据最新数据显示，到2021年底已有近410亿美元被花在NFT上，这使得数字艺术收藏品市场的价值几乎与全球艺术品市场持平。

"今年见证了NFT市场从一个价值不到十亿美元的市场爆发到一个数十亿美元的产业，"加密数据集团Messari的研究分析师Mason Nystrom表示，买家急于发现与他们的"数字身份"相一致的艺术品。

NFT本质上是在区块链上注册的数字所有权证书，一种无法被篡改的不可变记录。

这些NFT通常是使用智能合约（写入区块链代码的自动执行合约）创建或铸造的，并且可以在二级市场上进行交易以换取加密货币。

3 月，艺术家 Beeple 的一幅拼贴画在佳士得拍卖行以 6930 万美元的价格售出，这也是该拍卖行的首次NFT拍卖，NFT逐渐成为主流。

虽然NFT先在艺术界流行，但来自体育和音乐领域的企业参与者，甚至美国前第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普也接受了这个概念，并从中找到与粉丝互动的新方法。

NBA创建了名为NBA Top Shot的 NFT 市场，用于购买、销售和交易其球员的视频集锦。其他热门作品包括 NFT 编号集合，例如CryptoPunks 和 Bored Ape Yacht Club，它们表示其所有者的俱乐部地位，并被用作社交媒体头像。

Nystrom 说："核心价值仍然是排他性，"他指出，昂贵的收藏品还为购买者提供了进入Discord 上加密频道，以及参加聚会和派对的机会。

"他们是俱乐部式的：有很高的进入门槛，而且周围都是高净值的个体"。

根据加密货币分析组织 Chainalysis 的数据，在截至 12 月 15 日的一年里， 总共有 409 亿美元被投入到创建 NFT 的以太坊区块链合约中。如果包括在其他区块链上铸造的 NFT，如 solana，总数甚至会更高。

相比之下，根据瑞银和巴塞尔艺术展的数据，去年全球艺术市场的价值为 501 亿美元。

Chainalysis 发现，NFT将大量的零售投资者引入了加密货币世界，1万美元以下的小额交易占市场的 75%以上。

但就像加密货币市场一样，它仍然被少数大投资者所主导。

在 2 月下旬至 11 月期间，有 36 万名 NFT 所有者持有 270 万个 NFT。Chainalysis 发现其中约9%即 32400 个钱包持有市场价值的 80%。

对加密货币持怀疑态度的软件工程师Stephen Diehl说，许多大投资者从加密货币价格的繁荣中一边 "坐拥数亿美元的加密货币"，一边"希望将他们的加密货币变成更多的加密货币"。他们作为专业的交易者兼收藏家接近市场。知名的 NFT 投资者Pranksy，他在 2017 年以 600 美元的开始投资，现在已拥有价值超过2000 万美元的 NFT 投资组合。

他们对《金融时报》表示，他们投资的项目是混合型的，"有些项目的日交易量比较大，有些项目的吸引力比较小"。除了 "炒作 "有利可图的项目，Pranksy 说他们有 "特定的作品，我计划作为长期投资保留下来"。

根据区块链分析平台 Nansen 为 FT 撰写的分析报告，到目前为止，二级市场上大多数新的 NFT 收藏者还没有收回他们的购买成本，早期收藏者已经从 NFT 的价格以及用于交易的加密货币的上涨中受益。

不受监管的空间也受到欺诈、骗局和市场操纵的困扰，特别是因为买家和卖家的真实身份很难，甚至不可能被发现。

Nanse的分析发现，在截至 12 月中旬的 30 天内，CryptoPunk 和 Bored Ape 系列有 200 万美元的可疑活动。例如，一些 NFT 是以平均销售价格的 95％折扣出售，这可能是由于买家和卖家的错误，税务注销或其他一些利用非熟练用户的骗局。

研究人员还警告说，市场很可能被洗盘交易夸大了，当一个交易员为了给人制造需求而在交易中两头获益。

"总部位于德国的 Weng Fine Art 的首席执行官 Rüdiger K Weng 说："你可以在一个公共平台上买卖 NFT，让它看起来有很多人对该作品感兴趣，而实际上只是你在推高价格。

他说："这种情况在传统的艺术界也会发生"，但他补充说，如果操纵者将一件艺术品委托给苏富比拍卖行并试图进行洗盘交易，他们将不得不向拍卖行支付25%的销售额，这也使得洗盘的成本增高。

"铸造或购买 NFT 所需的交易费，即所谓的gas费，它可以根据需求而波动。然而有很多支持者认为市场正在成熟，最终将提供一系列的功能，如允许艺术家永久收取版税。

"你能做什么？"独立技术分析师和前风险资本家Benedict Evans问。"那可能是艺术家获得份额和随后的二次销售等事情，"他特别指出了该领域围绕音乐版权的早期创新。

在一些社区已经发生了所谓的非金融资产的金融化，例如，使用非金融资产作为贷款的抵押品，或将单件的所有权分解成更小的部分，即所谓的碎片化。

从长远来看，爱好者们希望代币有朝一日能够为任何元宇宙提供动力。在元宇宙NFT可以指定虚拟商品的所有权，无论是数字化身的服装还是数字房屋墙壁上的艺术品。耐克公司最近宣布，它已经收购了一家虚拟跑鞋公司，以铸造虚拟运动鞋。

无论如何，非传统金融市场的未来也将取决于监管机构在自由发展的市场中所采取的立场。

有人担心 NFT 与某些数字投资工具具有相同的特征，因此可能被监管机构视为证券。

Vinson and Elkins 公司的合伙人 Devika Kornbacher 说，希望发行 NFT 的公司经常会问："这个 NFT 是否会被看作是一种金融工具？它是否会被认为是我们公司的一种证券？"

同时，美国税务局等税务机构尚未直接处理 NFT，但一些专家认为，它们可能被视为 "收藏品"，意味着它们将被征收资本利得税。

White & Case律师事务所合伙人Pratin Vallabhaneni谈到即将到来的监管时说："对于整个行业来说，这是一个迫在眉睫的生存问题。

（陀螺财经注：本文为海外译文，仅为观点分享，不构成任何投资建议。）

以下为英文原文：

How NFTs became a $40bn market in 2021

At the beginning of 2021, only a niche group of crypto enthusiasts knew whatnon-fungible tokens (NFT) were.

But by the end of the year nearly $41bn hadbeen spent on NFTs, according to the latest data, making the market for digitalartwork and collectibles almost as valuable as the global art market.

“This year witnessed the NFT market explodefrom a sub-billion-dollar market to a multi-decabillion industry,” said MasonNystrom, research analyst at crypto data group Messari, adding that buyers wererushing to uncover art that aligns with their “digital identities”.

NFTs are essentially digital ownershipcertificates registered on a blockchain — an immutable record that cannot bechanged or tampered with.

The tokens are typically created or mintedusing smart contracts — self-executing contracts written into the code of ablockchain — and can be traded on the secondary market in exchange forcryptocurrency.

NFT mania hit the mainstream in March, whena collage by the artist Beeple sold for $69.3m at Christie’s, in the first saleof its kind at the auction house. The artist, whose given name is MikeWinkelmann, reacted with a tweet: “holy fuck”. Recommended SpecialReport#TechFT: How safe are digital assets? What are non-fungible tokens andhow do they work?

Though first popularised in the art world,corporate players from sports and music — even former US first lady MelaniaTrump — have also embraced the concept to cash in on the hype and find new waysto engage with fans.

The NBA, the US basketball league, createdits own NFT marketplace for buying, selling and trading video highlights of itsplayers called NBA Top Shot.

Other hits included numbered collections ofNFTs that went viral, including CryptoPunks and Bored Ape Yacht Club, and whichdenoted the clubby status of their owners and are used as avatars on socialmedia profiles.

“The core value is still exclusivity,” saidNystrom, noting that expensive collections also offer purchasers access to gatedchannels on chat platform Discord, and to meetups and parties.

“They are country club-esque: there is ahigh barrier to entry — a capital cost — and you are around high net worth andother individuals,” he added.

Intotal, $40.9bn was poured into the ethereum blockchain contracts that aretypically used to create NFTs in the year to December 15, according toChainalysis, a crypto analytics group. The total would even be higher if itincluded NFTs minted on other blockchains, such as solana.

By comparison, last year the global artmarket was worth $50.1bn, according to figures from UBS and Art Basel.

Chainalysis found that NFTs have introduceda huge number of retail investors to the crypto world, with small transactionsof under $10,000 accounting for more than 75 per cent of the market.

But much like the market forcryptocurrencies, it remains dominated by a few large players, or “whales”.

Between late February and November, therewere 360,000 NFT owners holding 2.7m NFTs between them. Of those, about 9 percent — or 32,400 wallets — held 80 per cent of the value of the market,Chainalysis found.

Stephen Diehl, a crypto-sceptic software engineer,said many whales are “sitting on hundreds of millions of dollars of crypto”from the boom in crypto prices, “looking to turn their crypto into morecrypto”.

Others say they approach the market asprofessional traders-cum-collectors. One well-known NFT investor, known asPranksy on Twitter, who started out with an initial investment of $600 in 2017now has an NFT portfolio worth more than $20m, they said.

They told the Financial Times that theyinvest in a mix of projects, “some of which have a higher daily trading volumeand others that have a more niche appeal”. Aside from “flipping” lucrativeprojects, Pranksy said they had “specific pieces I plan to keep as long terminvestments”.

So far, most new NFT collectors on thesecondary market have yet to recoup the costs of their purchases, according toan analysis for the FT by blockchain analysis platform Nansen, where earlycollectors have benefited from a rise in the price of the NFTs as well as inthe cryptocurrency used to trade in them.

The unregulated space is also plagued byfraud, scams and market manipulation, especially because the real-worldidentities of buyers and sellers is difficult, if not impossible, to discover.

Analysis by Nansen found $2m of suspectactivity across the CryptoPunk and Bored Ape collections in the 30 days tomid-December. Some NFTs, for example, were sold at a 95 per cent discount tothe average sale price, either because of mistakes by buyers and sellers, taxwrite-offs or some other scam exploiting unskilled users.

Researchers have also warned that themarket is likely being inflated by wash trading — when a trader takes bothsides of a trade in order to give the false impression of demand.

“You can buy and sell an NFT on a publicplatform and make it look like there is plenty of interest in the piece whenit’s just you pushing up the price,” said Rüdiger K Weng, chief executive ofGermany-based Weng Fine Art.

“This happens in the traditional art worldtoo”, he said, but added that if a manipulator consigns an artwork to Sotheby’sand attempts wash trading, they will have to pay the auction house 25 per centof the sale, making it a costly enterprise.

“With NFTs the costs are a fraction ofthat,” he said, referencing the transaction fees, known as gas fees, requiredto mint or purchase an NFT, which can fluctuate depending on demand.

Nevertheless, there are plenty ofsupporters who believe that the market is maturing and will eventually offer ahost of features, such as allowing artists to collect royalties in perpetuity.

“What can you do because it’s software?”asked Benedict Evans, an independent technology analyst and a former venturecapitalist. “That might be things like the artist gets a share and subsequentsecondary sales,” he said, pointing to early innovations in the space aroundmusic rights in particular.

Already, the so-called financialisation ofNFTs is taking place in some communities — for example, using NFTs ascollateral for loans, or breaking down ownership of a single piece into smallerparts, known as fractionalisation.

In the longer term, enthusiasts hope tokenswill one day power ecommerce in any metaverse or metaverses, futuristic digitalavatar-filled virtual worlds. Here, NFTs could designate ownership of virtualgoods, be that clothing for digital avatars or art for the walls of theirdigital houses. Nike recently announced that it had bought a virtual shoecompany to mint virtual sneakers.

Either way, the future of the NFTs marketwill also depend on the stance that regulators take as the freewheeling marketdevelops.

There are concerns, even among corporateissuers, that NFTs share characteristics with certain digital investmentvehicles and therefore may be considered securities by regulators.

Devika Kornbacher, partner at Vinson and Elkins,said companies looking to issue NFTs regularly ask: “Is this NFT going to beviewed as a financial instrument? Will it be considered a security from ourcompany?”

Meanwhile, tax agencies such as theInternal Revenue Service are yet to address NFTs directly, but some expertsargue that they could be deemed “collectibles”, meaning they would be subjectto capital gains taxes.

“It is a looming existential issue for thewhole industry,” said Pratin Vallabhaneni, partner at White & Case, ofimpending regulation.

Additional reporting by Eva Szalay andSiddharth Venkataramakrishnan

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