by Jean-Louis Gassée

通过让·路易斯·加塞(Jean-LouisGassée)

我们将进入一个令人兴奋的，混乱的过渡。 Apple Silicon不仅会制造出更好的Mac，还将迫使微软在ARM行为(包括硬件和软件)上完善Windows。 反过来，这将导致PC OEM重新考虑对x86芯片的效忠……这将对旧的Wintel合作伙伴关系产生严重影响。 (We’re about to enter an exciting, messy transition. Not only will Apple Silicon make better Macs, it will force Microsoft to polish its Windows on ARM act, both hardware and software. In turn, this will cause PC OEMs to reconsider their allegiance to x86 silicon…and that will have serious consequences for the old Wintel partnership.)

Why should Intel worry about Apple’s decision to base future Macs on homegrown Apple Silicon SoC (System on a Chip) devices? According to Dataquest and IDC estimates, Apple owns no more than 7% of the PC market. Furthermore, Apple doesn’t buy the expensive Xeon chips, used in millions of Cloud servers, that represent a growing proportion of Intel’s revenue. And the company is a headache: It makes demands and complaints way out of proportion with the amount of revenue it generates. Losing Apple is more symbol than substance.

英特尔为什么要担心苹果公司决定将未来的Macs放在自己生产的Apple Silicon SoC( 片上系统 )设备上的决定？ 根据Dataquest和IDC的估计 ，苹果在个人电脑市场中所占份额不超过7％。 此外，苹果公司不购买昂贵的至强芯片，这种芯片在数百万台云服务器中使用，占英特尔收入的比例越来越大。 公司很头疼：它使需求和投诉与它产生的收入不成比例。 失去苹果不仅仅是象征意义。

Not so fast. The impact on Intel — and the entire industry — will be felt beyond Apple’s modest share of the PC market.

没那么快。 除了苹果在PC市场中的微不足道的份额外，对英特尔以及整个行业的影响也将被感受到。

Apple isn’t simply dropping a proudly designed homegrown CPU in place of an Intel chip on Mac motherboards. Moving to Apple Silicon is an expensive undertaking that affects hardware and software engineering, developer relationships, marketing… If the switch to Apple Silicon were a mere CPU replacement, billions of dollars would burn in a bonfire of vanity.

苹果公司并不仅仅是在Mac主板上抛弃一个骄傲设计的自产CPU来代替Intel芯片。 迁移到Apple Silicon是一项昂贵的工作，会影响到硬件和软件工程，开发人员关系，市场营销……如果仅使用CPU替代品来迁移到Apple Silicon，数十亿美元将是虚空的篝火。

No. Apple sees its SoC as a means to make the Mac better. Of course, “better” is a dangerously vague adjective that needs some evidence.

不。Apple将其SoC视为使Mac 更好的一种手段。 当然，“更好”是一个危险的模糊形容词，需要一些证据。

We’ll start with power dissipation. My MacBook Pro gets hot…really hot. Apple doesn’t specify the exact chip, but it appears to use this Intel iCore 7 processor that has a 28 Watt TDP (Thermal Design Power; think of it as a “power budget”).

我们将从功耗开始。 我的MacBook Pro变热了…… 真的很热。 苹果公司没有指定确切的芯片，但似乎使用的是Intel iCore 7处理器 ， 该处理器具有28瓦TDP( 散热设计功率 ；将其视为“功率预算”)。

Let’s compare this with the latest iPad Pros that feature an A12Z Apple processor.

让我们将其与配备A12Z Apple处理器的最新iPad Pro进行比较。

According to Geekbench tests, A12Z performance matches or exceeds my MacBook Pro. Apple doesn’t disclose the TDP for the A12Z processor, but we can rely on an indirect number, the iPad Pro’s 18W power adapter output. This gives us an idea of what to expect from Apple Silicon in future Macs: Significantly lower TDP without losing processing power.

根据Geekbench测试 ，A12Z性能达到或超过了我的MacBook Pro。 苹果没有透露A12Z处理器的TDP，但我们可以依靠一个间接编号，即iPad Pro的18W电源适配器输出。 这使我们对未来的Mac中的Apple Silicon有什么期望：显着降低了TDP而又不损失处理能力。

Next, throughput. Given what we see with today’s A12Z, one can’t imagine tomorrow’s Apple Silicon Macs providing less than a 25% throughput advantage against corresponding x86 PCs. Admittedly, these are speculative, broad strokes assumption for Apple Silicon Macs — think faster, svelter laptops actually lasting 10 hours on a battery charge. If not, once again, why bother burning the billions?

接下来，吞吐量。 鉴于我们今天使用的A12Z所见，无法想象明天的Apple Silicon Macs与相应的x86 PC相比，吞吐量优势不到25％。 不可否认，这些是苹果公司的Apple Macs的推测性，粗略的假设-认为速度更快，更轻巧的笔记本电脑实际上可以持续10个小时的电池充电时间。 如果不是，为什么又要燃烧数十亿美元呢？

Next comes the matter of software, one that Apple took pains to handle at last month’s WWDC by demonstrating native versions of big standards (Microsoft Office, Adobe Photoshop…) and showing off the Rosetta 2 emulator. More concretely, Apple immediately shipped large numbers of its DTK (Developer Transition Kit) to help third-party developers port their apps. First impressions of the kit, which provides an Apple Silicon Mac prototype running an A12Z processor inside a Mac mini box, are promising: The hardware is fast and the software tools are more mature than one might have expected at this early stage.

接下来是软件问题，苹果公司在上个月的WWDC上演示了大版本的本机版本(Microsoft Office，Adobe Photoshop…)并展示了Rosetta 2仿真器，因此竭尽全力 。 更具体地讲，Apple立即发货了大量的DTK( 开发人员转换套件 )，以帮助第三方开发人员移植其应用程序。 该套件的第一印象令人鼓舞：它提供了运行在Mac mini盒子中的A12Z处理器的Apple Silicon Mac原型，其硬件速度快且软件工具比这个早期阶段的预期更成熟。

We’ll know more when Apple Silicon Macs ship in a few months, but it appears that the hardware and software transition seems to have been carefully planned and executed.

我们将在几个月后推出Apple Silicon Mac时了解更多信息，但看来硬件和软件的过渡似乎已经过精心计划和执行。

So how will this affect Intel and the industry?

那么这将如何影响英特尔和整个行业？

In 2012, Microsoft started the move away from Intel’s x86 processors with its first Surface machine running on an ARM SoC engine. It didn’t work too well. But Microsoft persisted and, late last year, came up with the Surface Pro X powered by another ARM-based SoC and running Windows on ARM. It was an improvement, but many reviewers still weren’t charmed. To cite but one problem, Microsoft’s bread and butter apps didn’t run in native mode. This was made even more embarrassing when Office on Apple Silicon was demonstrated at last month’s WWDC.

2012年，微软开始使用英特尔的x86处理器，它的第一台Surface机器运行在ARM SoC引擎上。 效果不是很好。 但是微软坚持不懈，并于去年下半年提出了由另一款基于ARM的SoC驱动并在ARM上运行Windows的Surface ProX。 这是一个进步，但是许多评论者仍然不满意 。 仅举一个问题，微软的面包和黄油应用程序未在纯模式下运行。 当上个月的WWDC上演示了Office on Apple Silicon时，这变得更加令人尴尬。

This leaves Microsoft with a choice: Either forget Windows on ARM and cede modern PCs to Apple, or forge ahead, fix app compatibility problems and offer an ARM-based alternative to Apple’s new Macs. It’s a false dilemma, of course. Microsoft will forge ahead…with repercussions for the rest of the Windows PC industry.

这就给微软留下了选择：要么忘记ARM上的Windows，然后将现代PC交给苹果，要么勇往直前，解决应用程序兼容性问题，并为苹果的新Mac提供基于ARM的替代产品。 当然，这是一个错误的困境。 微软将开拓进取，并为Windows PC其余行业带来影响。

Specifically, what are Dell, HP, Asus, and others going to do if Apple offers materially better laptops and desktops and Microsoft continues to improve Windows on ARM Surface devices? In order to compete, PC manufacturers will have to follow suit, they’ll “go ARM” because, all defensive rhetoric aside, Apple and Microsoft will have made the x86 architecture feel like what it actually is: old.

具体来说，如果苹果提供质量更好的笔记本电脑和台式机，而微软继续改进ARM Surface设备上的Windows，戴尔，惠普，华硕和其他公司将做什么？ 为了竞争，PC制造商将必须效仿，他们将“走ARM”，因为除所有防御性言论外，Apple和Microsoft将使x86架构看起来像是老样子。

This won’t happen overnight and there will be an interesting mess of x86 and ARM SoC machines fighting it out in the marketplace. Large organizations need continuity and would balk at the prospect of servicing two kinds of Windows machines and apps. As usual, they’ll downplay Apple’s advantage and curse Microsoft for causing trouble. But if the newer machines are actually better, rogue members within these organizations will sneak in new devices and software; they always do.

这不会在一夜之间发生，并且x86和ARM SoC机器将在市场上与之抗衡。 大型组织需要连续性，并且会厌倦为两种Windows机器和应用程序提供服务的前景。 像往常一样，他们会低估苹果的优势，并骂微软造成麻烦。 但是，如果实际上新机器更好，那么这些组织中的流氓成员将潜入新设备和软件。 他们总是这样做。

We now come to Intel’s reaction. Not what they’ll say when the trouble really starts, which could be soon.

现在我们来看看英特尔的React。 当麻烦真正开始时，他们不会说，这可能很快。

Intel execs know they missed the Smartphone 2.0 revolution because of culture blindness. They couldn’t bear to part with the high margins generated by the x86 cash cow; they couldn’t see that lower margins could be supported by unimaginable volume. Now, Intel is facing a more serious problem: The x86 commands high margins not because of the chip, but because of the Intel/Windows duopoly, meaning that, all other things being equal, chips not running Windows get lower margins than an x86 CPU. Now, that union, that advantage is about to disappear. Intel will face ARM-based SoCs running Windows on ARM with applications, in PC-like quantities, at lower prices.

英特尔高管知道，由于文化盲目，他们错过了Smartphone 2.0革命。 他们无法忍受x86摇钱树产生的高利润。 他们看不到无法想象的交易量能支撑较低的利润。 现在，英特尔面临着一个更严重的问题：x86的高利润率并不是因为芯片，而是因为英特尔/ Windows的双寡头垄断，这意味着，在所有其他条件相同的情况下，不运行Windows的芯片的利润率要比x86 CPU低。 。 现在，这种联盟即将消失。 英特尔将面对以ARM身份运行Windows的基于ARM的SoC，并以较低的价格提供类似PC的应用程序。

This leaves Intel with one path: if you can’t beat them, join them. Intel will re-take an ARM license (it sold its ARM-based XScale business to Marvell in 2006) and come up with a competitive ARM SoC offering for PC OEMs. Margins will inevitably suffer as the ARM-based SoC field is filled with sharp competitors such as Qualcomm and Nvidia, sure to be joined by arch-enemy AMD and others, all ushering in a new era of PCs.

这为英特尔提供了一条途径：如果您无法击败他们，那就加入他们。 英特尔将重新获得ARM许可(2006年将其基于ARM的XScale业务出售给Marvell)，并将为PC OEM提供具有竞争力的ARM SoC产品。 随着基于ARM的SoC领域充满了诸如高通和Nvidia之类的激烈竞争者，利润率将不可避免地受到损害，这些竞争者必将与敌对的AMD和其他公司一同进入，它们都将迎来PC的新时代。

I’ve avoided discussing Intel’s high-margin server chips and if/when/how they will be affected by more power-efficient ARM-based chips such as the AWS Graviton. I don’t know enough about the specifics of Intel’s monster (and electricity-hungry) Xeon chips powering forests of Cloud servers to form an opinion.

我避免讨论英特尔的高利润服务器芯片，以及它们是否/何时/如何受到更高功率的基于ARM的芯片(例如AWS Graviton)的影响 。 我对英特尔为云服务器森林提供动力的巨型(至耗电)Xeon芯片的细节了解不足。

Wintel’s passing is a heavy-enough topic for today.

今天，Wintel的去世已经是一个沉重的话题。

— JLG@mondaynote.com

— JLG@mondaynote.com