It would be strange for people to hear that Milton Friedman, one of the greatest and well-known conservative economists, advocated for universal basic income.

人们听到莫尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)是最伟大和著名的保守派经济学家之一提倡普及基本收入的说法，这真让人感到奇怪。

Also, Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek, a major advocate of free-market economics, was a supporter of a minimum basic income.

另外，自由市场经济学的主要倡导者奥地利经济学家弗里德里希·哈耶克(Friedrich Hayek)也是最低基本收入的支持者。

But why?

但为什么？

First and foremost, these were great economists who were attached to human principles and not ideals. If some ideas were better for humanity, they were willing to accept them. They didn’t subscribe to a black and white method of thinking of the world.

首先，这些都是伟大的经济学家，他们奉行人类原则而不是理想。 如果某些想法对人类更有利，那么他们愿意接受它们。 他们不赞成以黑白方式思考世界。

We must explore why universal income is becoming necessary and look at it from a humanitarian perspective — not through a conservative or liberal lens.

我们必须探讨为什么普遍收入变得必要，并从人道主义的角度来看待它，而不是从保守或自由的角度来看。

Administration, clerical work, retail, food service, truck driving, and manufacturing comprise about 50% of American Jobs. Many of these jobs require nothing more than a high school diploma.

行政，文书工作，零售，食品服务，卡车驾驶和制造业约占美国乔布斯的50％。 其中许多工作只需要高中文凭即可。

There is an 83% chance that jobs that get paid under $20 per hour will be replaced by 2030. This Suggests that jobs, where the majority of the economy is employed, are at risk of automation soon.

到2030年，时薪低于20美元的工作有83％的机会将被取代。这表明，在大多数经济体中受雇的工作，很快就会面临自动化的风险。

According to Bank Credit Suisse, 20–25% of malls will close within the next 5 years. When we consider that a large portion of mall jobs require retail, trucking, and foodservice, this becomes a scary forecast.

据瑞士信贷银行(Credit Suisse)称，未来5年内将有20-25％的购物中心关闭。 当我们认为商场工作的很大一部分需要零售，卡车运输和餐饮服务时，这将成为一个令人恐惧的预测。

Over the years, the American labor participation rate has been steadily declining. In 2001 it was at 67% while in pre-pandemic, it was at 63%. This statistic shows the reduction of workers in the economy.

多年来，美国的劳动参与率一直在稳步下降。 2001年为67％，而在大流行前为63％。 该统计数据表明经济中的工人减少了。

However, some people suggest that these people being left behind should get with the times. These people think that truck drivers, who are an average age of 49, should learn to code. They want truck drivers to become software engineers and data scientists.

但是，有人建议这些落后的人应该与时俱进。 这些人认为，平均年龄49岁的卡车司机应该学习编码。 他们希望卡车司机成为软件工程师和数据科学家。

How can people without a college degree who are already 50 learn to do something so complicated? These people have chosen things like trucking and manufacturing because they prefer manual labor and most likely never enjoyed school and academic pursuits — and that is ok — to each his or her own.

没有大学学历的人，已经50岁了，该如何学习做些复杂的事情？ 这些人之所以选择卡车和制造业之类的东西，是因为他们更喜欢体力劳动，而且很可能从未享受过学历和学术追求，这对每个人来说都是可以的。

The government has already tried retraining programs and they haven’t been successful.

政府已经尝试过再培训计划，但没有成功。

A 2012 evaluation prepared for the Labor Department found that while 85 percent of those who went through T.A.A.-funded training eventually received a certificate or degree, only 37 percent of them were working in that field four years later.

2012年为劳工部进行的评估发现，虽然接受TAA资助的培训人员中有85％最终获得了证书或学位，但四年后，只有37％的人在该领域工作。

This transition is a rocky one, to say the least.

至少可以说，这一转变是艰难的。

Also, while these STEM jobs currently have high demand but a hoard of half of America’s workforce would easily change that.

同样，尽管目前这些STEM职位的需求很高，但是美国一半的劳动力储备很容易改变这一状况。

Google has recently released a certificate program for $49.00 a month. They say they will hold this certificate in equal consideration to a degree.

Google最近发布了一个证书计划，每月收费49.00美元。 他们说他们将在一定程度上平等地持有该证书。

This is concerning for two reasons:

这有两个原因：

1. ) It will make computer science more accessible to everyone and raise competition.)这将使每个人都可以更容易地使用计算机科学，并引起竞争。

and

和

2.) It will lower wages as a result.

2.)结果将降低工资。

STEM was so popular because of its high wages and demand. But as it gets easier to access the information needed for STEM jobs and more people go into the field, it will not be attractive anymore.

STEM之所以受欢迎，是因为其高工资和高需求。 但是，随着人们越来越容易地获得STEM工作所需的信息，并且有越来越多的人进入该领域，它将不再具有吸引力。

Coders from foreign countries, with certificates, and with less experience will be preferred. Companies would rather hire them as they require less money than experienced programmers who will no longer be worth their hefty salaries for companies.

来自国外的，具有证书且经验较少的编码员将是首选。 公司宁愿雇用他们，因为他们需要的钱比经验丰富的程序员要少，后者将不再值得他们为公司赚大钱。

Now, there is a demand for STEM, but after all these factors, the field will become saturated. STEM jobs take up about 8% of the jobs in our economy. We cannot create jobs where there are none.

现在，对STEM有需求，但是在所有这些因素之后，该领域将变得饱和。 STEM工作约占我国经济工作的8％。 我们无法在没有工作的地方创建工作。

Just like being an attorney in the 80s, now everyone wants to get into STEM. If you are moderately okay at math or science in High School, you are now heavily encouraged to go into the field. This will lead to the glut of STEM jobs — while there may be a demand now, we are witnessing it disappear.

就像在80年代当律师一样，现在每个人都想进入STEM。 如果您对高中的数学或科学有一定的了解，现在强烈建议您进入该领域。 这将导致STEM职位过剩-尽管现在可能有需求，但我们正在见证它的消失。

While other jobs inevitably shrink due to automation, there will have to be action. Many people are currently dropping out of the workforce and automation will only speed up this process.

尽管其他工作不可避免地会由于自动化而减少，但必须采取行动。 当前有很多人退出劳动力市场，而自动化只会加快这一过程。

So as a result, it is a question of when and not if a plan for universal basic income will be adopted. The alternatives are failed training programs, attempts to place people into jobs that don’t exist, and having many people out of work permanently without income.

因此，结果是一个问题，即何时以及是否将采用普遍基本收入计划。 替代方案是失败的培训计划，试图使人们从事不存在的工作以及使许多人永久性失业而没有收入。

With all the benefits of technology, there are apparent, pressing problems.

利用技术的所有好处，存在明显的紧迫问题。

People may also be worried about universal basic income taking away the incentive of people to work. However, experiments have been tried and they have generally succeeded and have not disincentivized people from working.

人们可能还担心普遍基本收入会剥夺人们工作的动力。 但是，已经尝试了实验，并且实验总体上成功了 ，并且没有使人们失去工作的动力。

People will continue working because it is within human nature to create. But now because people don’t have to work to survive and their basic needs, they can devote their time to more meaningful work which will improve society.

人们将继续努力，因为创造属于人类本性。 但是现在，由于人们不必为了生存和基本需求而工作，因此他们可以将时间投入到更有意义的工作上，从而改善社会。

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