重点 (Top highlight)

自动化的必然崛起，反对“工作”的案例以及如何应对 (The inevitable rise of automation, the case against “jobs”, and what to do about it)

By Benjamin Rosman (@BenjaminRosman) and Peter Xing (@peterxing)

本杰明·罗斯曼 (@BenjaminRosman)和彼得·邢 (@peterxing)

工作危机 (The Work Crisis)

The alarm bell rings. You open your eyes, come to your senses, and slide from dream state to consciousness. You hit the snooze button, and eventually crawl out of bed to the start of yet another working day.

闹钟响了。您睁开眼睛，感觉到，然后从梦境滑向意识。您按下贪睡按钮，最终爬下床直到另一个工作日开始。

This daily narrative is experienced by billions of people all around the developed world. We work, we eat, we sleep and we repeat. As our lives pass day by day, the beating drums of the weekly routine takes over and years pass until we reach our goal of retirement.

发达国家的数十亿人每天都在经历这种日常叙事。我们工作，吃饭，睡觉，重复。随着我们的生活一天天过去，每周例行的敲打鼓接and而至，岁月流逝，直到我们达到退休目标。

We repeat it so that we can pay our bills, so that we can set up our kids for success, and so that we can provide for our families. And after a while, we start to forget what we would do with our lives if we didn’t have to go back to work — whether we’re working for a living or living to work.

我们重复一遍，以便我们可以支付帐单，以便我们可以为成功建立自己的孩子，并可以为家人提供生活。一段时间后，我们开始忘记如果不必回到工作岗位(无论是为了工作还是为了工作而工作)将对生活产生怎样的影响。

In the end, we look back at our careers and reflect on what we’ve achieved. It may have been the hundreds of human interactions we’ve had; the thousands of emails read and replied; the millions of minutes of physical labor — all to keep the global economy ticking along. This is how most people experience their work in the developed world — just another cog in the global wheel of perpetual growth.

最后，我们回顾一下自己的职业生涯，并反思我们所取得的成就。可能是我们进行了数百次人类互动。数以千计的电子邮件已阅读和回复；数百万分钟的体力劳动—所有这些都使全球经济持续发展。这就是大多数人在发达国家体验工作的方式-只是全球永久增长轮中的另一个齿轮。

According to Gallup’s World Poll, many people in the developed world actually hate their jobs. In fact, only 15% of people are actually engaged with their jobs worldwide. Stress and clinical burnout and subsequent suicide in Japan have caused the government to intervene — 94% of Japanese workers are not engaged at work.

根据盖洛普(Gallup)的《世界民意调查》，世界上许多人实际上讨厌他们的工作。实际上，全世界只有15％的人从事自己的工作。在日本，压力，临床倦怠和随后的自杀事件已导致政府干预-94％的日本工人未从事工作。

The current state of “work” is not working for most people. In addition, many jobs are unnecessary from a practical point of view, such as “box tickers” (creating work to show everyone that something is being done) and “taskmasters” (creating work for others to do — but if they suddenly disappeared the work would still be done).

对于大多数人来说，当前的“工作”状态并不奏效。此外，从实际的角度来看，许多工作都是不必要的，例如“盒子行情自动收录器”(创建工作以向所有人显示正在做某事)和“任务负责人”(创建工作供其他人执行)，但是如果他们突然消失了，工作仍将完成)。

Want to read this story later? Save it in Journal.

想稍后再读这个故事吗？ 将其保存在 Journal中 。

In fact, the reality is even worse than this for millions of people worldwide. Every day, you hear about the loss of lives in dangerous working conditions — whether it’s a landslide in a jade mine in Myanmar, or the e-waste recycling workshops in India, or the deaths of cobalt miners in Congo. The International Labor Organisation (ILO) estimates that some 2.3 million people around the world succumb to work-related accidents or diseases every year. This corresponds to over 6,000 deaths every single day. Worldwide, there are around 340 million occupational accidents and 160 million victims of work-related illnesses annually.

实际上，对于全世界数百万人而言，现实甚至比这更糟。每天，您都会听到在危险的工作环境中丧生的消息 -无论是缅甸翡翠矿的山体滑坡，印度的电子废物回收车间，还是刚果的钴矿工人死亡。国际劳工组织(ILO) 估计，全世界每年约有230万人死于与工作有关的事故或疾病。这相当于每天有6,000多人死亡。全世界每年约有3.4亿起职业事故和1.6亿与工作有关的疾病的受害者。

In the developed world, you may be lucky enough to choose not to go back to the work you dread and seek social security or welfare. Those economies are able to provide some semblance of a safety net for the people who experience disruption to their working lives, such as during a pandemic, to help them transition and seek another job. But in many developing nations, these socio-economic structures are simply not in place.

在发达世界中，您可能很幸运，选择不回到自己惧怕的工作中去寻求社会保障或福利。这些经济体能够为经历工作中断(例如在大流行期间)的人们提供某种安全网，以帮助他们过渡并寻求另一份工作。但是在许多发展中国家，这些社会经济结构根本就不存在。

In either case, almost every person globally is trapped working in some way or another, doing something that is likely to cause them psychological, emotional, or physical harm. There are very few options available to anyone, of any class or country, to escape sitting on the spectrum of corporate slavery. That is, if they want to be able to feed and shelter themselves, their family, and experience “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”, they must continue this cycle. Falling off this spectrum is actually considered one of the worst things that can happen to a person, as can be seen by the millions globally in unemployment, which often translates to poverty.

无论哪种情况，全球几乎每个人都以某种方式被困住，从事可能会导致他们的心理，情感或身体伤害的事情。对于任何阶层或国家的任何人，只有很少的选择可以逃脱企业奴隶制的束缚。就是说，如果他们希望能够养活和庇护自己，家人并经历“ 生命，自由和对幸福的追求 ”，那么他们必须继续这个循环。实际上，脱离这一范围被认为是一个人可能发生的最糟糕的事情之一，全球数百万人失业通常可以看出，这通常会导致贫困。

On top of all this, modern slavery itself is a tragedy. The ILO estimates that, by their definition, over 40 million people are in some form of slavery today. 24.9 million people are in forced labor, of whom 16 million people are exploited in the private sector such as in domestic work, construction or agriculture. 4.8 million people are in situations of forced sexual exploitation, and 4 million people are in forced labor imposed by state authorities.

最重要的是，现代奴隶制本身就是一个悲剧。国际劳工组织估计，按照其定义，今天有超过4000万人处于某种形式的奴隶制。 2490万人处于强迫劳动状态，其中有1600万人被私营部门剥削，例如从事家政工作，建筑或农业。 480万人处于被迫性剥削的境地，400万人处于国家当局施加的强迫劳动。

When all of this is considered together, it is abundantly clear that we as a species are trapped by a global Work Crisis, which condemns humans to cast away their time just to get by in their day-to-day lives.

综合考虑所有这些因素，很明显，我们作为一个物种被全球性的工作危机所困，该危机谴责人类为了生存而浪费时间。

自动化的幽灵 (The Spectre of Automation)

Against this backdrop, many are involved in efforts to automate different aspects of work. This has been ongoing since the Industrial Revolution, which largely took the form of steam engines and other machines working their way into factories. In recent decades this has taken on a more elegant guise, with first physical robots in production plants, and most recently, with software automation entering most offices.

在这种背景下，许多人参与了使工作的各个方面自动化的工作。自工业革命以来，这一直在进行，工业革命主要采取蒸汽机和其他机器进入工厂的形式。在最近的几十年中，这出现了一个更优雅的幌子，生产工厂中出现了第一批物理机器人，而最近，软件自动化进入了大多数办公室。

The driving goal behind much of this automation work has always been productivity and hence, profits: any piece of technology that can act as a multiplier on what a single human can achieve in a day is of huge value to any company. Powered by this strong financial incentive, this quest for automation is growing ever more pervasive.

大部分自动化工作背后的驱动目标一直是生产力，因此就是利润：任何可以使一个人一天之内实现成倍增长的技术对任何公司都具有巨大的价值。在这种强大的财务激励的推动下，对自动化的追求越来越普遍。

The most recent form of automation is driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and is being embraced by global corporate giants and tech startups alike. Where previous generations of technology were physical in nature and required large teams to be developed, software automation leverages exponential advances in machine learning, software frameworks, and distributed computing, meaning that the barrier to entry to apply this technology is considerably lower. Buzzwords such as “robotic process automation” are now a staple across many industries, as more office work starts to fall under the shadow of automation.

最新的自动化形式是由人工智能(AI)驱动的，并被全球企业巨头和科技创业公司所采用。在前几代技术本质上是物理的并且需要发展大型团队的情况下，软件自动化利用了机器学习，软件框架和分布式计算方面的指数级进步，这意味着应用此技术的入门门槛要低得多。随着越来越多的办公室工作开始落入自动化的阴影之下，诸如“机器人流程自动化”之类的流行语现在已成为许多行业的常用语。

This affects the future prospects of all employees. A growing number of workers in every sector are worried about this, and they are right to be. Many in the technology sector dismiss these fears, with the claim that workers can simply be upskilled, and that even more jobs will be created in their place. This argument is short-term and naive at best.

这影响了所有员工的未来前景。每个部门中越来越多的工人对此感到担忧，他们是对的。科技界的许多人消除了这些担忧，声称工人可以简单地提高技能，并会在他们的位置创造更多的就业机会。这种论点充其量只是短期的和幼稚的。

Three factors are worth considering here when thinking about the future of the workplace:

在思考工作场所的未来时，这里需要考虑三个因素：

It is unclear whether there is anything that, in principle, cannot be automated in the long run. We are seeing unprecedented advances in multiple areas of AI, including understanding images, text, speech, human behaviour and even in long-term planning and decision-making. In addition, machines are far more capable at running simulations of future events, or weighing the pros and cons of decisions than humans can.

目前尚不清楚，从原则上讲，是否有什么东西从长远来看无法自动化。我们正在AI的多个领域看到空前的进步，包括理解图像，文本，语音，人类行为，甚至是长期计划和决策。此外，与人类相比，机器在运行未来事件的模拟或权衡决策的利弊方面的能力要强得多。
There seems to be no technical barrier stopping the ultimate automation of any role of work. Even if some jobs were to be spared from automation (perhaps due to regulation), there is no fundamental law of the universe that necessitates that there will always be enough jobs for every human. As both our technology advances, and the global population grows, it seems apparent that the number of available jobs would decrease.似乎没有任何技术障碍可以阻止任何工作的最终自动化。即使要从自动化中省去一些工作(也许是由于法规)，也没有宇宙的基本定律必须为每个人提供足够的工作。随着我们技术的进步以及全球人口的增长，显然，可用工作的数量将会减少。
Finally, it is unclear whether anyone suddenly put out of work by technology can be reasonably upskilled in their lifetimes. This is particularly apparent with the high unemployment many countries are already facing.最后，尚不清楚是否有人突然因技术而失业，是否可以合理地提高其一生的技能。随着许多国家已经面临的高失业率，这一点尤其明显。

Taken together, this picture suggests that many, if not most, jobs are scheduled to be lost. Already in the US, a significant number of people are regularly declared redundant because of technological advances, which have accelerated due to the pandemic along with a new wave of automation. In fact, COVID-19 has spurred China’s great robotic leap forward, and this aligns with their government’s 2030 AI strategy: to be the dominant global player in AI.

综上所述，这张图表明许多(如果不是大多数)工作将被安排失业。在美国，由于技术进步，大批人经常被宣布为冗余，由于大流行和新一波的自动化浪潮而加速了技术进步。实际上，COVID-19推动了中国机器人的巨大飞跃，这与中国政府的2030年AI战略一致：成为AI的全球主导者。

To further complicate matters, we have no idea of when these massive job losses are coming. This will transpire slowly in some lines of work such as upper management, but it could happen very quickly for jobs involving repetitive physical or cognitive tasks (using technologies available today), as well as those involving driving in the coming years. To date, billions of dollars have been invested into the autonomous vehicle industry.

更复杂的是，我们不知道这些大规模的失业时间何时到来。这将在某些工作(例如高层管理)中慢慢发展，但对于涉及重复的身体或认知任务(使用当今可用的技术)的工作以及未来几年涉及驾驶的工作，可能很快发生。迄今为止，数十亿美元已投资到自动驾驶汽车行业。

The exponential growth in automation technologies and adoption is clearly not sustainable for societies, and a crisis here is looming. If we do not anticipate and address this accelerating trend, it has the potential to destabilise the entire human project. As a diminishing number of people find themselves employed, we can expect a host of negative effects, including more concentrated wealth among a shrinking elite, more strain on government social support, and an increase in depression and drug-dependence. Worst of all, skyrocketing unemployment tends to lead to growing, and in many cases, violent social unrest.

自动化技术和采用率的指数级增长对于社会而言显然是不可持续的，这里的危机正在迫在眉睫。如果我们不预期并解决这一加速趋势，那么它就有可能破坏整个人类项目的稳定。随着越来越多的人找到工作，我们可以预期会产生许多负面影响，包括精英日益萎缩，财富缩水，政府对社会支持的压力增加以及抑郁症和毒品依赖的增加。最糟糕的是，失业率飙升往往会导致经济增长，在许多情况下还会导致剧烈的社会动荡。

The argument that we will adapt as humans to augment ourselves with technology has been made by the transhumanism movement. Just like we use our smartphones to extend our connectivity, memory and intelligence based on the collective knowledge accessible on the internet, transhumanists believe that one day we will be able to merge with AI to transcend all limitations of our human biology. The risk, however, is that not everyone will have access to these technologies, similar to how not everyone has access to a smartphone today. In fact, only 59% of the world population have access to the internet in 2020, let alone the many who are in poverty and still need access to basic needs like food, water, shelter, healthcare, education, and energy. With growing unemployment, coupled with existing socioeconomic divisions and challenges with interoperability in software, hardware as well as political platforms, equal distribution of the fruits of automation will only become harder to come by over time.

超人类主义运动提出了我们将以人类的身份适应以增强技术自身的论点。就像我们使用智能手机基于互联网上可访问的集体知识来扩展我们的连接性，内存和情报一样，超人类主义者相信，有一天，我们将能够与AI融合，超越人类生物学的所有局限性。但是，风险在于，并非每个人都可以使用这些技术，就像今天并非每个人都可以使用智能手机一样。实际上，到2020年，世界上只有59％的人口可以使用互联网，更不用说许多贫困者仍然需要满足基本需求，例如食物，水，住房，医疗保健，教育和能源。随着失业率的上升，再加上现有的社会经济分歧以及软件，硬件以及政治平台之间的互操作性挑战，随着时间的流逝，自动化成果的平均分配将变得越来越困难。

It seems as though we are rushing headlong into a major crisis, driven by the engine of accelerating automation. But what if instead of automation challenging our fragile status quo, we view it as the solution that can free us from the shackles of the Work Crisis?

似乎我们正急速陷入重大危机，这是由自动化引擎加速所驱动的。但是，如果不是自动化挑战我们脆弱的现状，而是将其视为可以使我们摆脱工作危机的束缚的解决方案，该怎么办？

出路 (The Way Out)

Automation is certainly going to change the role of work in society, and this coming change is not only inevitable, but accelerating. Indeed, researchers have argued that countries should capture new opportunities through aggressive investment such as South Korea and Germany’s Industry 4.0 technology initiatives, but this only incentivises market forces to accelerate the automation availability and adoption.

自动化无疑将改变工作在社会中的作用，而这一即将到来的变化不仅是不可避免的，而且还在加速。实际上，研究人员认为，各国应该通过积极的投资来抓住新的机遇，例如韩国和德国的工业4.0技术计划，但这只会激发市场力量来加快自动化的可用性和采用速度。

As such, it seems we have three choices:

因此，似乎我们有三个选择：

We can ignore the impending changes as being “too far away” or something not worthy of concern,

我们可以忽略即将发生的变化，因为它们“太遥远”或不值得关注，
We can try and slow this technological progress and force things to stay the way they are, or

我们可以尝试减缓这项技术进步，并迫使事情保持现状，或者
We could embrace this change, and wield it to our advantage.

我们可以接受这种变化，并利用它来发挥我们的优势。

Ignoring progress: Ignoring the current technological progress, and the resulting effects on our delicate socio-economic balance may be tempting. Concerns around AI are often dismissed as being a problem for the future. However, this is naive largely because of the uncertainty involved. We do not know when the advances will be made that will put large swaths of the population out of work, and indeed this could happen overnight. At the same time, we do not know what destabilising effects this would have on society. As a result, it seems prudent to anticipate these problems before it is too late.

无视进步：无视当前的技术进步，以及由此产生的对我们微妙的社会经济平衡的影响可能很诱人。围绕AI的担忧通常被认为是未来的问题。但是，这很天真，因为存在不确定性。我们不知道何时会取得进展，这会使大批人口失业，实际上这可能在一夜之间发生。同时，我们不知道这会对社会造成什么破坏性影响。结果，在为时已晚之前预见这些问题似乎是明智的。

Slowing progress: A seemingly trivial solution would be to slow or regulate technological progress. While this would directly tackle the threat of the impending social upheaval, it is in fact an untenable approach. Although regulation may help to address unfair trading practices of monopolies and oligopolies in the short term, software solutions lower the barriers to entry for digital automation, which means that it can be pursued by anyone with a technical (and even not so technical) background. This makes progress in automation very difficult to control. Unlike threats posed by, say, nuclear weapons where research is in the hands of a few state actors, there are many thousands of entities working on AI research, and orders of magnitude more that have access to deploying these technologies. The tremendous financial incentives associated with automation further complicates any hope of bringing all such development under centralised control.

进展缓慢：一个看似微不足道的解决方案将是减慢或规范技术进步。尽管这将直接解决即将发生的社会剧变的威胁，但实际上这是不可行的方法。尽管监管可能会在短期内帮助解决垄断和寡头的不公平贸易行为，但是软件解决方案降低了数字自动化进入市场的障碍，这意味着具有技术(甚至不是技术背景)的任何人都可以采用它。这使得自动化方面的进展非常难以控制。不同于核武器所带来的威胁，其中的研究掌握在少数国家行为者的手中，有成千上万的从事人工智能研究的实体，还有更多数量级的人可以使用这些技术。自动化带来的巨大经济诱因进一步使将所有此类开发置于集中控制之下的任何希望变得更加复杂。

Embracing progress: Instead, we could take a step back and evaluate the implications of automation in a more positive light. We have two crises here that could actually counteract each other. Instead of viewing the Work Crisis as something which we should desperately cling to while being assaulted by radical, societal change brought on by automation, perhaps automation could actually be our salvation from the Work Crisis.

拥抱进步：相反，我们可以退后一步，以更加积极的态度评估自动化的含义。我们这里有两个危机可以相互抵消。与其将工作危机看作是我们在被自动化带来的激进社会变革冲击下迫切需要坚持的事情，不如说自动化实际上可能是我们从工作危机中得救的方法。

In order to undertake this paradigm shift, we need to consider what society could potentially look like, as well as the problems associated with making this change. In the context of these crises, our primary aim should be for a system where people are not obligated to work to generate the means to survive. This removal of work should not threaten access to food, water, shelter, education, healthcare, energy, or human value. In our current system, work is the gatekeeper to these essentials: one can only access these (and even then often in a limited form), if one has a “job” that affords them.

为了进行这种范式转换，我们需要考虑社会可能会是什么样子，以及与进行此更改相关的问题。在这些危机的背景下，我们的主要目标应该是建立一个没有义务人们创造生存手段的系统。这种工作的转移不应威胁获得食物，水，住所，教育，医疗保健，能源或人类价值。在我们当前的系统中，工作是这些基本要素的看门人：如果一个人拥有可以提供这些要素的“工作”，则他们只能访问这些要素(甚至经常以受限的形式)。

Changing this system is thus a monumental task. This comes with two primary challenges: how to provide a person without a job access to financial security, and how they can maintain a sense of their human value and worth. There are several core areas of concern, each with important steps for society to consider:

因此，更改此系统是一项艰巨的任务。这带来了两个主要挑战：如何为一个没有工作的人提供财务保障 ，以及他们如何保持对人的价值和价值的意识。有几个令人关注的核心领域，每个领域都有社会要考虑的重要步骤：

Universal basic income (UBI): One major concern with moving away from work centres on its financial role to workers, and this source of income would need to be replaced. One suggestion that is rapidly gaining traction is the widespread implementation of UBI for all people in society, regardless of their situation, and for them to thus become shareholders in the fruits of automation, which would then be distributed more broadly.

普遍基本收入(UBI) ：从工作中心转移到其财务角色后，主要关注点转移到了工人身上，这种收入来源将需要替换。一个Swift受到关注的建议是，UBI在社会上被广泛应用，无论他们身处何地，所有人都可以成为他们，从而成为自动化成果的股东，然后将其广泛地传播。

UBI proposals can be traced back as far as the 16th century, but have been floated throughout American history by a wide range of leaders including Thomas Paine and Martin Luther King, Jr. A minor form of UBI arguably has already existed since 1982 in the US state of Alaska in the form of a 25% royalty from oil revenue in that state which goes out to every resident of Alaska as the Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) of around USD 2,000 per year. The one-time $US1,200 stimulus checks Americans received earlier this year as a part of the CARES Act are also arguably an interim universal basic income. However, programs around the world such as the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) in the US and Australia’s JobKeeper and JobSeeker still tie these stimulus measures to work or the act of seeking work, and will end after a period of time. As such, they are not truly “universal” and lack permanence, which is what would be required to lead the economy away from work-based human value.

UBI的提议可以追溯到 16世纪，但在整个美国历史上一直被包括Thomas Toine和Martin Luther King，Jr在内的众多领导人提出。可以说，自1982年以来，在美国阿拉斯加州已经存在一种次要形式的UBI，形式是该州石油收入的25％特许权使用费，作为大约美元的永久基金股息(PFD)分配给阿拉斯加的每个居民。每年2,000个。美国人今年早些时候收到的1200美元的一次性经济刺激支票是CARES法案的一部分，也可以说是一种临时的普遍基本收入。但是，世界各地的计划，例如美国的薪水保护计划( PPP )以及澳大利亚的JobKeeper和JobSeeker仍然将这些刺激措施与工作或寻求工作的行为联系在一起，并将在一段时间后终止。因此，它们并不是真正的“通用”并且缺乏持久性，这是引导经济摆脱以工作为基础的人类价值所必需的。

UBI trials have been conducted all around the world including Finland, Kenya, and Spain. The findings have generally been positive on the health and well-being of the participants, improved education and showed no evidence that it disincentivizes work, a common concern among critics of UBI. The most recent popular voice for UBI has been the former Presidential Candidate in the US, Andrew Yang, who now runs a non-profit organisation called Humanity Forward.

UBI试验已在世界各地进行，包括芬兰，肯尼亚和西班牙。调查结果一般都积极的健康和福祉的参与者，改进教育并表明没有证据证明它disincentivizes工作，UBI的批评者共同关注的问题。 UBI最近流行的声音是美国前总统候选人安德鲁·杨(Andrew Yang)，他现在经营着一家名为Humanity Forward的非营利组织。

UBI could also remove wasteful bureaucracy in administering welfare payments (since everyone receives the same amount of UBI, there’s no need to prevent rorting), and promote the pursuit of projects aligned with the individual’s skill sets and passions, as well as quantifying the value for those who perform tasks that are currently not recognised by economic measures like Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This includes looking after children and the elderly at home. There is a growing trend to recognise measures such as the Gross Happiness Index in Bhutan, and the focus on wellbeing promoted by New Zealand’s Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern in her government’s 2019 Budget.

UBI还可以消除浪费的官僚机构来管理福利金(因为每个人都收到相同数量的UBI，因此没有必要防止侵权)，并促进追求与个人技能和激情相匹配的项目，并量化其价值。那些执行当前经济措施无法识别的任务的人，例如国内生产总值(GDP) 。这包括在家中照顾儿童和老人。人们越来越认识到诸如不丹总幸福指数 ( Gross Happiness Index)等措施，以及新西兰总理贾辛达·阿登(Jacinda Ardern)在其政府的2019年预算中倡导的对福祉的关注。

How a UBI can be initiated with political will, society backing and paid for by governments around the world has been hotly debated by economists and UBI enthusiasts around the world. Arguments from how much the UBI payments should be set to, whether to implement taxes such as Yang’s proposed valued added tax (VAT), whether to replace existing welfare payments, whether to take into account economic multipliers from the stimulus from spending, socio-economic benefits such as health, wellbeing, education and creativity, impact on inflation, and the impact on “jobs” from people who would otherwise look for work in light of a UBI require additional discussion. However, some have predicted the inevitability of UBI as a result of the ubiquity of automation.

世界各地的经济学家和UBI爱好者都在激烈地争论着如何以政治意愿，社会支持和由政府支付的费用来发起UBI。关于应将UBI付款设置为多少，是否执行杨致远提议的增值税(VAT)之类的税收，是否替换现有福利支出，是否考虑来自支出刺激的经济乘数，社会经济诸如健康，福祉，教育和创造力之类的好处，对通货膨胀的影响，以及根据UBI寻求工作的人们对“工作”的影响，都需要进一步讨论。但是，一些人已经预测到，由于无处不在的自动化，UBI的必然性。

Universal healthcare: Another major component of any society is the healthcare of its citizens. A move away from work would further require the implementation of a universal healthcare system to decouple healthcare with jobs. Currently in the US, and indeed many other economies, healthcare is tied to employment. This originated during World War II when service to the military created a labor shortage. The employers and unions offered various benefits, including health plans to incentivise more workers. After the war, and through the economic boom of the 1940s and 1950s, this became the predominant form of health insurance, and any companies trying to compete for workers would be expected to provide it. Medicare and Medicaid were subsequently set up to provide health insurance for the poor and the elderly, two groups not generally receiving employer benefits.

全民医疗保健 ：任何社会的另一个主要组成部分是其公民的医疗保健。离开工作场所将进一步需要实施通用医疗保健系统，以使医疗保健与工作脱钩。当前在美国，甚至在许多其他经济体中，医疗保健也与就业挂钩。这起源于第二次世界大战期间，当时服兵役导致劳动力短缺。雇主和工会提供各种福利，包括旨在激励更多工人的保健计划。战后，以及1940年代和1950年代的经济繁荣，这已成为健康保险的主要形式，任何试图竞争工人的公司都有望提供这种保险。随后成立了医疗保险和医疗补助计划，为穷人和老年人提供医疗保险，这两个群体通常没有得到雇主的好处。

Universal healthcare such as Medicare in Australia is evidence for the adage “prevention is better than cure”, when comparing the cost of healthcare in the US with Australia on a per capita basis. This has already presented itself as an advancement in the way healthcare is considered.

在按人均计算比较美国和澳大利亚的医疗成本时，澳大利亚的Medicare等全民医疗证明了“预防胜于治疗”的格言。这已经成为医疗保健方式的进步。

There are further benefits of a healthier population, including less time and money spent on “sick-care”. This leads directly to flourishing and achieving more of human value potential.

人口健康还会带来更多好处，包括减少在“病床护理”上花费的时间和金钱。这直接导致了繁荣并实现了更多的人类价值潜力。

Apart from being an essential component that must be established for a work-free society, growing universal healthcare may work as an intermediate step to support the current gig economy to ease the transition from traditional employment, thereby enabling more flexibility for people to pursue activities they prefer over full time jobs.

除了是无劳动社会必须建立的重要组成部分之外，不断发展的全民医疗保健可能是支持当前零工经济以缓解从传统就业过渡的中间步骤，从而使人们能够更加灵活地从事自己的工作。比全职工作更喜欢。

Reshape the economy away from work-based value: Healthcare is not the only way in which the well-being of people should be prioritised in society. In fact, one of the greatest challenges in a departure from work is for people to find value elsewhere in life. Indeed, many people view their own identities as being inextricably tied to their jobs, and life without a job is therefore a threat to one’s sense of existence. This, then, presents a shift that must be made at both a societal and personal level.

重塑经济，远离以工作为基础的价值 ：医疗保健不是人们应优先考虑社会福利的唯一方法。实际上，离职的最大挑战之一就是人们要在生活中的其他地方找到价值。确实，许多人认为自己的身份与工作有着千丝万缕的联系，因此，没有工作的生活威胁着人们的生存意识。因此，这提出了必须在社会和个人层面上进行的转变。

A person can only seek alternate value in life when afforded the time to do so. To this end, we need to start reducing “work-for-a-living” hours towards zero, which is a trend we are already seeing in Europe, led by organisations and suggested by Finland’s Prime Minister. This should not come at the cost of reducing wages pro rata, but rather could be complemented by UBI or additional schemes where people receive dividends for work done by automation. This transition makes even more sense when coupled with the idea of deviating from using GDP as a measure of societal growth, and instead adopting a well-being index based on what society actually values.

一个人只有在有时间的情况下才能在生活中寻求替代价值。为此，我们需要开始将“以工代hours”的工作时间减少到零，这是我们在欧洲已经看到的趋势，由组织领导并由芬兰总理建议。这不应以按比例减少工资为代价，而可以通过UBI或其他计划来补充，因为人们可以通过自动化完成工作而获得红利。当与不使用GDP来衡量社会增长的想法结合，而是根据社会的实际价值采用幸福指数时，这种转变就变得更加有意义。

The crux of this issue is in transitioning from the view that work gives meaning and so life is about using this to survive, towards a view of living a life that itself is good, fulfilling and meaningful. This talks directly to notions from Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, where work currently largely addresses psychological and safety needs, such as shelter, food, and financial well-being. People should instead grow beyond this current struggle, to engage in the levels of self-actualisation and transcendence.

这个问题的症结在于从工作赋予意义的观点过渡，因此生活就是要利用它来生存，朝着生活本身就是美好，充实和有意义的生活的观点转变。这直接谈到了马斯洛需求层次结构中的概念，目前工作主要解决心理和安全需求，例如住房，食物和经济状况。人们应该超越目前的斗争，从事自我实现和超越的水平。

The question is largely around what could provide one with the desired sense of value. The answer would differ as much as people do, from self-mastery, to building relationships and contributing to community growth, fostering creativity, and even engaging in the enjoyable aspects of existing jobs, for their own sake.

问题主要是围绕什么可以为人们提供理想的价值感。答案和人们所做的一样大，从自我掌握到建立关系，为社区发展做出贡献，培养创造力，甚至是为了自己而从事现有工作的愉快方面。

Universal education: With a move towards a society which promotes the values of living a good life, the education system would have to evolve as well. Researchers have long argued for a more nimble education system, but universities and even most online courses currently exist for the dominant purpose of helping people find a job, and ensuring they are adequately skilled to contribute to the economy. These “job factories” only exacerbate the Work Crisis. In fact, the response that is often given by educational institutions to the challenge posed by the automation of jobs, is to find new ways of upskilling students, such as ensuring they are all able to code. As discussed earlier, this is a limited and unimaginative solution to the problem we are facing.

普及教育 ：随着向着促进美好生活价值观的社会发展，教育体系也必须发展。长期以来，研究人员一直在主张建立更加灵活的教育体系，但是目前大学甚至大多数在线课程的存在都是为了帮助人们找到工作，并确保他们有足够的技能为经济做出贡献。这些“工作工厂”只会加剧工作危机。实际上，教育机构通常对工作自动化带来的挑战做出的回应是找到提高学生技能的新方法，例如确保他们都具备编码能力。如前所述，这是我们面临的问题的一种有限且缺乏想象力的解决方案。

Instead, education should be centered on helping people acknowledge the current crisis of work and automation, teach them how to derive value that is decoupled from work, and enable people to embrace progress as we transition to the new economy. The fact that many people find it so difficult to imagine a life having its own intrinsic value is evidence that our education system is failing at providing us with the tools we need to thrive.

相反，教育应集中在帮助人们认识当前的工作和自动化危机，教会他们如何获得与工作脱节的价值，使人们在我们过渡到新经济的过程中拥抱进步。许多人发现很难想象拥有自己内在价值的生活，这一事实证明了我们的教育体系未能为我们提供发展所需的工具。

结论思想 (Concluding Thoughts)

While we seldom stop to think about it, much of the suffering faced by humanity is brought about by the systemic foe that is the Work Crisis. The way we think about work has brought society far, and enabled tremendous developments, but at the same time has failed billions of people. Now, the current status quo is threatened by those very developments, as we progress to an era where machines are destined to put every human out of work.

尽管我们很少停止思考，但人类面临的许多苦难是由工作危机等系统性敌人造成的。我们对工作的思考方式已经使社会走到了尽头，实现了巨大的发展，但与此同时却使数十亿人丧生。现在，随着我们进入一个注定要让每个人都无法工作的机器的时代，这些发展正威胁着当前的现状。

This impending paradigm shift is a gargantuan threat to the stability of our fragile system, but only if it is not fully anticipated. If we prepare for it appropriately, it could instead be the key to not just our survival, but also open the door to a better future for all.

这种即将到来的范式转换是对我们脆弱的系统稳定的巨大威胁，但前提是没有充分预期。如果我们为此做好准备，那么它不仅可以成为我们生存的关键，而且还可以为所有人创造更美好的未来。

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