We’ve all seen them. They are astonishingly simple to use. Just pull the bar, and three reels start frantically spinning, only to grind to a halt at a square, the number three, and a banana. Shame, you didn’t win this time but after parting ways with another 50 cent coin and watching the reels settle at not one but two bananas, the machine gets terribly excited, telling you that you won 4 dollars. Fantastic.

我们都看过他们。 它们非常简单易用。 只需拉动酒吧，三个转轴就开始疯狂旋转，直到在一个正方形，三个数字和一根香蕉上磨碎为止。 不好意思，这次您没有赢钱，但是在与另一枚50美分硬币分道扬watching之后，看着转轴在一个而不是两个香蕉上安顿下来，机器异常兴奋，告诉您您赢了4美元。 太棒了

At this stage, you might have the impression that breaking the casino is in fact a viable scenario if you just keep on losing 50 cents but winning 4 dollars. Unfortunately, this feeling is exactly what keeps customers of online casinos going back and ultimately this is the feeling that make the customers poorer and the casino richer. Merely getting excited when you win is neither a surprise nor a sin. We are only humans.

在这个阶段，您可能会觉得，如果您继续亏损50美分而赢得4美元，打破赌场实际上是一个可行的方案。 不幸的是，这种感觉正是使在线娱乐场的顾客回头的原因，最终这是使顾客变得更贫穷，娱乐场变得更富裕的感觉。 赢得胜利时仅感到兴奋既不是意外，也不是罪过。 我们只是人类。

The problem arises with the fact that operating slot machines is perfectly legal. For those who like to point out inconsistent practices in our lives, this rings some alarm bells, especially when considering that operating a pyramid scheme is illegal, as they should be.

问题在于操作老虎机是完全合法的事实。 对于那些喜欢指出我们生活中不一致的做法的人，这敲响了警钟，尤其是当考虑到实行金字塔计划是非法的时，尤其是当他们这样做时。

The reason for this is that they rely on luring in people by falsely indicating how much money they could earn, get them to invest and leave them to their own devices. Eventually, they find out that people do get suspicious about going on 4 party holidays for a total of 300 dollars a year. “If you get 5 people to sign up and they get another 5 people to sign up, there are 5 x 5 = 25 people working for YOU!”

其原因是，他们依靠虚假地指出自己可以赚多少钱，吸引他们进行投资并留给他们自己的设备来诱骗人们。 最终，他们发现人们确实对参加4个聚会假期感到怀疑，这些假期每年共计300美元。 “如果您有5个人进行注册，而他们又有5个人进行注册，那么就有5 x 5 = 25个人为您工作！”

Familiar? Well compare it to this: “You have lost 50 cents in the 3 earlier rounds but earned 4 dollars in this one. That’s 2.50 dollars profit in just four spins, and you might earn even more in one spin!”. Pyramid schemes and slot machines draw people in because they exploit the same combination of cognitive features: A) the motivation to earn money and B) poor judgement on the likelihood of actually earning the money.

熟悉吗？ 比较一下：“您在前三轮中损失了50美分，但在这一轮中赚了4美元。 只需四次旋转即可获得2.50美元的利润，您一次旋转就可以获得更多！”。 金字塔计划和老虎机之所以吸引人们，是因为它们利用了相同的认知特征组合：A)赚钱的动机，B)对实际赚钱的可能性的错误判断。

In order to see this analogy better, the basics of why slot machines win “every time” needs clarifying (maths is involved only as far as multiplication, I promise), after which it will become clear how it doesn’t make much sense to keep them legal.

为了更好地理解这种类比，需要弄清为什么老虎机“每次都赢”的基本知识(我保证所涉及的只是乘法)，在此之后将变得很清楚，对于让他们合法。

一分钟老虎机摘要 (One minute slot machine summary)

If customers lost on every single round, no one would play. If they lost 50 cents 60% of the time and won 50 cents 40% of the time, they would get suspicious and start counting the wins/losses. In the end, they would uncover the 60/40 success ratio and (again) would leave. So here comes the remedy.

如果客户在每一轮中都输了，没人会参加。 如果他们60％的时间损失50美分，而40％的时间赢得50美分，则他们将变得可疑并开始计算获利/损失。 最后，他们将发现60/40的成功率，然后(再次)离开。 因此，补救措施来了。

Lose 50 cents 90% of the time and win 4 dollars 10% of the time. Can you tell me within 3 seconds if this is a good or a bad deal? In general, the human brain can’t, and it definitely stands no chance if the winnings/losses are not based on only two outcomes as above, but on 9 x 9 x 9 = 729 outcomes, all having different pay-outs (considering a three reel machine with 9 things on each reel).

90％的时间损失50美分，10％的时间赢得4美元。 您能在三秒钟内告诉我这是好事还是坏事？ 总的来说，人脑不能，如果赢/赔不是仅基于上述两个结果，而是基于9 x 9 x 9 = 729个结果，而所有结果都有不同的支出，则绝对没有机会。三盘机器，每个盘上有9个东西)。

We don’t have to dwell on the details of such a large number of possibilities because actually, you can unveil the long term financial prospects of a slot machine with just four numbers: (1) the proportion of wins, (2) the proportion of losses, (3) the average amount you win when you win, and (4) the average amount you lose when you lose.

我们不必赘述这么多可能性的细节，因为实际上，您可以通过四个数字揭示老虎机的长期财务前景：(1)获胜比例，(2)比例(3)获胜时的平均金额，以及(4)亏损时的平均金额。

So let’s have a look at the proposition above, as this scenario is actually reflective of what you could expect from slot machines. If the game says you win 4 dollars in 10% of the spins and lose 50 cents in 90% of the spins, that actually means if you did 100 spins, you would lose around 5 dollars. (For those interested, you just calculate the expected value of one spin, -5 cents, then times it by 100 spins.)

因此，让我们看一下上面的命题，因为这种情况实际上反映了您对老虎机的期望。 如果游戏说您在10％的旋转中赢了4美元，在90％的旋转中输了50美分，这实际上意味着，如果您进行了100次旋转，您将损失大约5美元。 (对于那些感兴趣的人，您只需计算一转的期望值--5美分，然后乘以100转即可。)

Most importantly however, the fact that you lose 5 dollars after 100 spins is no longer up to much uncertainly. For every 100 spins, you will lose 5 dollars each time you finish. This is not at all bad from the perspective of everyone involved. From the casino’s perspective, if it gets 10,000 people to do 100 spins every week, that’s 5 dollars x 10,000 people x 4 weeks = 200,000 dollars profit for a month. Every month.

然而，最重要的是，在100次旋转后您损失了5美元这一事实已不再是不确定的了。 每旋转100次，您每次完成操作都会损失5美元。 从所有相关人员的角度来看，这一点都不坏。 从赌场的角度来看，如果它让10,000人每周进行100次旋转，那么5美元x 10,000人x 4周=每月200,000美元的利润。 每个月。

大图 (The big picture)

Homo Sapiens is great at cooperating in large numbers, and large numbers mean power. You can’t build pyramids, go to the moon or stage revolutions with 4 people. With 100,000 however, you have a fair chance of transforming your environment into useful things.

智人擅长于大量合作，而大量合作则意味着力量。 您无法与4个人一起建造金字塔，登月或进行舞台革命。 但是，有了100,000，您就有很大的机会将环境转变为有用的东西。

Novel wonders like steam engines, computers, smartphones, cars will help you in several ways in creating some truly amazing things and experiences, but also come with some side effects by simultaneously creating pleasurable but socially dangerous opportunities for speeding, stealing from those you don’t know, and allowing anyone to start a business which is basically a scam etc… To prevent these side effects from materializing, we call on additional large-scale cooperation and devise laws as well as their enforcement to keep these side effects under control. Sometimes, this theory manifests in a spectacular fail. Sometimes it works and makes Pyramid Schemes illegal.

蒸汽机，计算机，智能手机，汽车等新颖奇观将以多种方式帮助您创建一些真正令人惊奇的事物和体验，同时还带来了令人愉悦但对社会有害的提速，从他人身上偷窃的社会危险机会，并带来了一些副作用。不知道，并允许任何人开办基本上是骗局的业务…为了防止这些副作用的发生，我们呼吁进行更多的大规模合作，并制定法律及其实施措施，以控制这些副作用。 有时，这种理论表现为壮观的失败。 有时它起作用并使金字塔计划非法。

These schemes are illegal because they exploit the inherent motivation to earn money, but never truthfully declare how much you can expect to earn. Otherwise, they would need to say: “99.9% of people who invest the 300 dollars never make a cent. But you might make 5,000 dollars in 3 weeks!”. Certainly not as promising as having 25 people working for you.

这些计划是非法的，因为它们利用了赚钱的内在动机，但是从不诚实地声明您可以期望赚多少钱。 否则，他们需要说：“投资300美元的人中，有99.9％的人从不赚钱。 但是您可能会在3周内赚到5,000美元！”。 当然，没有25个人为您服务那样有希望。

How about slot machines? They (again) exploit an inherent motivation to earn money and hide your essentially certain long-term losses under a blanket of complex and unexpected pay-outs/bonuses and literally flashing lights. If they were required to talk about stats, they would say: “On our slot machines, 99.9% of people lose money. But you might not!”

老虎机怎么样？ 他们(再次)利用一种内在的动机来赚钱，并在一系列复杂而出乎意料的支出/奖金以及字面上闪烁的灯光下掩盖了您的某些长期损失。 如果要求他们谈论统计信息，他们会说：“在我们的老虎机上，99.9％的人赔钱。 但是你可能不会！”

These two things seem oddly ridiculous, as well as oddly similar.

这两件事看起来很荒谬，也很奇怪。