募捐名单

by Haseeb Qureshi

由Haseeb Qureshi

每年的捐款，以及为什么现在应该捐款，而不是以后 (Yearly donations, and why you should give now, not later)

2017年即将结束。 这已经是我第三年赚钱了 ，又是充满变化的一年。 (2017 draws to a close. It’s been my third year earning-to-give, and another year full of changes.)

At various points this year I seriously considered starting a company. This made me ask myself: does it still make sense to donate a third of my income this year if I’m considering something that risky? It’s all well and good to donate money, but maybe it makes sense to do it later in life. Look at Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Elon Musk — doesn’t it make more sense to first maximize your success, and then donate down the road?

我在今年的各个时候都认真考虑过创办一家公司。 这使我问自己：如果我考虑冒险的话，今年将收入的三分之一捐出还有意义吗？ 捐钱是件好事，但也许以后生活会有意义。 看看比尔·盖茨，沃伦·巴菲特，伊隆·马斯克–先最大化您的成功，然后再捐赠是不是更有意义？

I’ve faced this question more than once, and many people have written me with similar thoughts. Within the effective altruism community, it’s been a perennial debate. But my answer has always been firm: you should give now rather than later.

我已经不止一次面对这个问题，许多人给我写过类似的想法。 在有效的利他主义社区内，这是一个长期的辩论。 但是我的回答一直很坚定：您应该现在而不是以后给出。

I have four main reasons why you shouldn’t delay your giving.

我有四个主要理由说明您不应该延迟捐赠的原因。

复利 (Compounding interest)

There’s a common argument that goes like this: if you donate later instead of donating now, you can get compounding interest on your capital. If you have $100,000 now, doesn’t it make sense to invest it into high-growth assets, double it, and donate $200,000 later?

有一个普遍的说法是这样的：如果您以后捐赠而不是现在捐赠，您可以得到资本的复利。 如果您现在拥有100,000美元，那么将其投资于高增长资产，将其翻倍并在以后捐赠200,000美元是否有意义？

For the sake of argument, let me grant that you always have investment opportunities that will give you compounding interest. It begs the question — if you keep doubling your capital, at what point should you stop doubling it and finally give it away?

为了争辩，让我同意，您总是会有投资机会，这会给您带来复利。 这就引出了一个问题-如果您继续增加资本，在什么时候应该停止增加资本并最终放弃？

Let’s say your capital is x = 1000. With some amount of compounding interest, eventually x will be 10,000. But then it should take the same amount of time for x to become 100,000, and then eventually 1,000,000. If you take this argument seriously, when are you suppose to decide “okay, this has compounded enough, it’s time to give it away”?

假设您的资本为x =1000。加上一定数量的复利，最终x将为10,000。 但是，x变为100,000并最终达到1,000,000所需的时间相同。 如果您认真对待这一论点，您何时应该决定“好吧，这已经足够复杂了，是时候放弃它了”吗？

If anything, it seems like the more money you have, the more valuable the compounding interest will be, so the less you should ever want to give. This seems paradoxical.

如果有的话，似乎您拥有的资金越多，复利就越有价值，因此您应该付出的越少。 这似乎是自相矛盾的。

The natural answer might be to give right before you die (this won’t be optimal tax-wise, but ignore that). If that’s the case, then it’s only by accident of our lifespans that we should give money at all. If healthcare reached the level that you could extend your life indefinitely, then there would be no point at which it would actually make sense to cut the cord and donate money.

自然的答案可能是在死前就给人权利(这在税收上不是最佳选择，但请忽略这一点)。 如果是这样的话，那么我们应该付出金钱只是偶然的。 如果医疗保健达到您可以无限期延长寿命的水平，那么就没有任何实际意义可以切断电源线并捐款。

This seems clearly wrong.

这显然是错误的。

A stronger version of the argument goes like this: early in your career, it makes more sense to invest in yourself and your own runway so you can increase your earning potential and take more high-value risks. So shouldn’t you invest in yourself early on, and then donate later?

这种说法的一个更强的说法是这样的 ：在职业生涯的早期，对自己和自己的跑道进行投资更有意义，这样您就可以增加自己的盈利潜力并承担更多的高价值风险。 那么，您不应该早点投资自己，然后再捐赠吗？

This I agree with more. If you’re early in your career or need to build your credentials/expertise, or move to an area where your skills are in higher demand (generally expensive cities), then I don’t think you should be donating a massive amount. You’re still at a phase where investing in yourself produces extremely high returns.

我对此表示赞同。 如果您是事业的初期，或者需要建立自己的证书/专业知识，或者需要将技能转移到对技能有更高要求的地区(通常是昂贵的城市)，那么我认为您不应该捐赠大量资金。 您仍处在投资自我产生极高回报的阶段。

But for myself, I’m past that phase. It’s no longer onerous for me to invest in skill-building (training, conferences, books, etc.), I already live in SF, and I’m pretty efficient with my time. I could definitely use more runway, but I’m not genuinely capital-constrained here, since if you want to build a company in the Bay, capital is pretty cheap.

但对我自己而言，我已经过了那个阶段。 对我来说，投资技能建设(培训，会议，书籍等)不再是繁重的工作，我已经生活在SF中，而且我的工作效率很高。 我当然可以使用更多的跑道，但是我在这里并没有真正的资金约束，因为如果您想在海湾地区建立公司，资金是非常便宜的。

In other words, past a certain point, it’s not that expensive to optimize your career and you won’t have unlimited capacity to absorb new capital investment. Once you’re trained up, live in a high-demand area, and have a bit of runway, you don’t really need much else.

换句话说，经过一定时间后，优化职业并不是那么昂贵，并且您将没有无限的能力吸收新的资本投资。 一旦接受培训，生活在高需求区域并拥有一些跑道，您实际上就不需要太多。

(Note these arguments don’t apply as elegantly to capital-intensive professions such as professional gambling, daytrading, or investing. In those cases I do think it might make sense to delay giving until you start hitting diminishing returns with your own capital.)

(请注意，这些论点不适用于资本密集型行业，例如专业赌博，日间交易或投资。在这些情况下，我认为延迟捐赠直到您开始用自己的资本实现收益递减时才有意义。)

流通效应 (Flow-through effects)

But the previous argument only considers one side of the value transfer — it only considers what you yourself can do with the money. It ignores the crucial fact that effective giving also produces compounding returns for the charity.

但是前面的论点只考虑了价值转移的一个方面，它只考虑了您自己可以用钱做什么。 它忽略了关键的事实，即有效的捐赠也会为慈善机构带来可观的回报。

Take the simple case of donating directly to the poor via GiveDirectly. If we raise more people out of poverty or enable them to acquire more education or skills, that might cost $1,000 now. But those people can go on to contribute to their economy, develop their community, and ultimately further reduce poverty there. Your donation also compounds.

以通过GiveDirectly直接向穷人捐款的简单情况为例 。 如果我们使更多的人摆脱贫困或使他们获得更多的教育或技能，那么现在可能要花费1,000美元。 但是这些人可以继续为自己的经济做出贡献，发展自己的社区，并最终进一步减少那里的贫困。 您的捐款也会增加。

Most people imagine charitable giving as temporarily putting a band-aid on a social wound. But if that’s the case, it’s a sign that the intervention itself is not very effective. Effective giving tends to produce compounding benefits and flow-through effects. Thus you should expect the rate of return on the very best charities to have higher returns than marginal self-investment or the returns you can make in capital markets.

大多数人将慈善捐赠视为暂时将创可贴放在社交伤口上。 但是，如果是这样，那就表明干预措施本身不是很有效。 有效的捐赠往往会产生复合收益和流通效应 。 因此，您应该期望最好的慈善机构的收益率比边际自我投资或可以在资本市场中获得的收益更高。

This should strongly bias you toward giving now rather than later.

这应该使您强烈偏向于现在而不是以后给出。

影响他人 (Influencing others)

The third reason why you should give now is because it influences the people around you.

您现在应该捐赠的第三个原因是，它影响了您周围的人。

I might have been able to give more today if I’d invested all of my previous donations into index funds and donated the proceeds now. But by giving each year and writing about it, if I galvanize even one more person to earn-to-give, then I’ve likely doubled my effect on the world.

如果我将以前的所有捐赠都投资到指数基金中，现在就捐赠了收益，那么我今天也许可以提供更多。 但是，通过每年付出并撰写有关的文章，如果我再激励一个人来赚钱，那么我对世界的影响可能会加倍 。

People often believe that charity should be private or secret. I strongly disagree. The best way to inspire people to give is to do it yourself. So give loudly, proudly, and actively encourage others to do the same.

人们经常认为慈善应该是私人的或秘密的。 我非常不同意。 激励人们奉献的最好方法是自己做。 因此，请大声，自豪地给予帮助，并积极鼓励他人也这样做。

From the emails I’ve received from blog readers, I know that I’ve convinced several people to learn about effective altruism and follow this same path. Influencing the people around you is an powerful lever, and I’ve probably had more impact on the world by influencing others than I’ve had through my own giving.

从我从博客读者那里收到的电子邮件中，我知道我已经说服了几个人学习有效的利他主义，并遵循同样的道路。 影响您周围的人是一个有力的杠杆，而且通过影响他人，我对世界的影响可能比我自己奉献的影响更大。

影响自己 (Influencing yourself)

The last reason is the most subtle, but I think the most important. Giving now cultivates your own virtue, and ensures that you’ll continue to live up to your own ideals.

最后一个原因是最微妙的，但我认为最重要。 奉献现在可以培养自己的美德，并确保您将继续实现自己的理想。

You are not a perfect creature. Even if you intend to do something hard now, whether that’s to donate money, swear off alcohol, go vegan, or whatever sacrifice you intend to make, you always have to factor in the possibility that you’ll change your mind or regress.

你不是一个完美的生物。 即使您现在打算做一些困难的事情，无论是捐钱，宣誓戒酒，素食主义者还是打算做任何牺牲，您都必须考虑到改变主意或倒退的可能性。

People are terrible at predicting their own regressions. I’ve met enough people who are former vegans, former renunciates, even former earn-to-givers. It’s easy to fall into the trap of believing there’s something special about your conviction that makes you immune to this. But everyone is vulnerable to value drift.

人们很难预测自己的回归。 我遇到了足够多的人，这些人是前素食主义者，前弃绝主义者，甚至是前赚钱的人。 很容易陷入陷阱，以为您的信念有一些特别之处，可以使您对此有所免疫。 但是每个人都容易受到价值漂移的影响。

You get older. Your circumstances change. And your fervor becomes fuzzier. More distant. More negotiable.

你变老了 你的情况改变了。 和你的热情变得模糊。 更遥远。 面议。

When I’m 50, I’ll probably be as distant from my present self as I am from my 15-year-old self.

当我50岁的时候，我可能会和现在的我一样远离15岁的我。

So how can you stay true to your ideals? It’s simple. Make a habit of virtue. Stay inside it. Keep it as a part of your life. Have it seep into your bones. Give year after year, even if it slows you down.

那么，如何才能忠于自己的理想呢？ 这很简单。 养成美德的习惯。 留在里面。 将其作为生活的一部分。 让它渗入您的骨头。 年复一年，即使它减慢了你的速度。

The path is long and sometimes disenchanting, but virtue and discipline are the only way forward.

这条路很长，有时令人迷惑，但美德和纪律是唯一的前进之路。

So that’s why I’m giving now rather than later. And I feel pretty damn good about it.

这就是为什么我现在而不是以后给出的原因。 我对此感到非常好。

我2017年的捐款 (My 2017 donations)

In total this year I’m donating $45,370.00 (slightly less than last year due to not working for a few months after I left Airbnb).

今年我总共捐赠了$ 45,370.00(由于我离开Airbnb后几个月没有工作，所以比去年少了一点)。

Of that sum, $11,340 I’m donating to the Against Malaria Foundation — the same organization I donate to every year, and the #1 top ranked charity on Givewell for multiple years.

在这笔款项中，我将向打击疟疾基金会捐款11,340美元，这是我每年向该组织捐款的金额 ，也是多年来在Givewell排名第一的慈善机构。

The Against Malaria Foundation is a non-profit that funds and distributes anti-malarial bednets in malaria-ravaged countries, primarily in Africa and Asia. A single bednet can be funded and distributed for ~$4, making them perhaps the most cost-effective life-saving intervention in the world.

反对疟疾基金会是一个非营利组织，主要在非洲和亚洲的疟疾肆虐国家资助和分发抗疟蚊帐。 单个蚊帐的费用约为4美元，可以分发，这可能是世界上最具成本效益的救生措施。

The remaining 75% of my donations this year, $34,030, I’m donating to a donor-advised fund to be donated to a promising AI safety charity. The fund is managed by my good friend Alex Flint, a computer vision PhD from Oxford who’s very well-versed in AI risk (if you’d likewise want to donate to this fund, I can put you in touch with him).

我今年剩余的75％的捐款(34030美元)捐给了一个捐赠者建议的基金 ，捐给了一个有前途的AI安全慈善机构。 该基金由我的好朋友亚历克斯·弗林特(Alex Flint)管理，他是牛津大学的计算机视觉博士学位，他对AI风险非常了解(如果您同样愿意向该基金捐款，我可以与他联系)。

For those who are unfamiliar with AI safety, you might have heard folks Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, and Sam Harris making pronouncements about the dangers of uncontrolled artificial general intelligence. AI is advancing rapidly, and it’s likely to grow and control more of the infrastructure of the world far faster than we can develop our understanding of how to make it safe. So far the world has invested an remarkably small amounts into thinking about how to make AIs more safe, and I think this will be an increasingly important problem as AI research advances. If you’re new to this, I recommend reading this, then this, then this.

对于那些不熟悉AI安全性的人，您可能已经听说过Elon Musk，Stephen Hawking和Sam Harris声明了不受控制的人工智能的危险。 人工智能正在Swift发展，它有可能以远远超过我们对如何使其安全的理解的速度增长和控制世界上更多的基础设施。 到目前为止，全世界已经投入了很少的资金来思考如何使AI更安全，并且我认为随着AI研究的发展，这将成为越来越重要的问题。 如果你是新来这个，我建议你阅读这个 ，然后这个 ，那么这个 。

In general the study of AI risk is so enormously underfunded, it’s clear to me that this was a pressing area that needed more attention and capital. I don’t know as much about the charities on the ground, so a donor-advised fund allows me to let someone I trust make better-researched decisions than I could in this area.

总的来说，对AI风险的研究资金极其匮乏，对我来说很明显，这是一个迫切需要进一步关注和投入的领域。 我对当地的慈善机构了解甚少，因此，通过捐赠者提供的基金，我可以让我信任的人做出比我在这个领域可以做的研究更好的决定。

So that’s it for 2017. 2018 should have a lot more in store. I’ll likely continue writing about blockchain and crypto, and hopefully there’ll be some exciting new developments I can share!

因此，2017年就是这样。2018年应该有更多的存储空间。 我可能会继续写关于区块链和加密的文章，并希望会有一些激动人心的新进展可以分享！

Bring it on, 2018.

继续吧，2018年。

—Haseeb

—哈西卜

翻译自: https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/yearly-donations-and-why-you-should-give-now-not-later-cba890cabfbe/

募捐名单