When technology does things we humans don’t want to do, find too dangerous to do, or solve problems we’re not smart enough to solve, will we enter a scientific and cultural rebirth?

当技术做我们人类不想做的事情，发现做起来太危险或解决我们不够聪明无法解决的问题时，我们会进入科学和文化的重生吗？

Richard Fouts

理查德·富茨

During the industrial age we learned to make things. Then came the quality movement which taught us to make things better. Now, in the connected age, we make things that work together. These however, are no ordinary things. When enabled with artificial intelligence, data science and sensors, things become able to make decisions based on changes in the environment and in the events that are happening around them (e.g., the autonomous vehicle).

在工业时代，我们学会了做事。 然后是质量运动，它教会了我们做得更好。 现在，在互联时代，我们共同努力。 但是，这些都不是普通的事情。 当启用了人工智能，数据科学和传感器后，事物就能够根据环境的变化以及周围环境的变化(例如自动驾驶汽车)做出决策。

WHEN HUMANS AND MACHINES COOPERATE

人与机器合作时

Over the next 20 to 30 years, we will say goodbye to the mundane, leaving our robots and virtual assistants to conduct those things we find dull, repetitive or messy. But unlike previous eras, that modeled intra-technology relationships as master/slave, we will think of these bots as equal anthropomorphized, family members, even office mates that work by our side giving us advice, recommendations — even emotional support.

在接下来的20到30年中，我们将告别世俗，让我们的机器人和虚拟助手来进行那些我们认为乏味，重复或混乱的事情。 但是，与以前将技术内部关系建模为主/从关系的时代不同，我们将这些机器人视为等同的拟人化，家庭成员，甚至是在我们身边工作的办公室伴侣，都向我们提供建议，建议-甚至是情感支持。

These bots (a term we’ll use to refer to robots and virtual assistants) don’t just automate work that was done by humans, they often supplant the human altogether. Bots:

这些机器人(我们将用来指代机器人和虚拟助手的术语)不仅使人类完成的工作自动化，而且还常常完全取代人类。 机器人：

>> Remember things we forget and gladly volunteer to do things we disdain. They act as cheer leaders when we’re down and propel us forward when we’re at our most productive.

>>记住我们忘记的事情，并乐意自愿做我们不屑一顾的事情。 当我们情绪低落时，他们充当欢呼的领导者，而当我们生产力最高时，他们将推动我们前进。

>> Know us at an excruciating level of detail (which is their only job) as they recommend who we date, suggest hobbies we’ll love — and vacations we’ll be inclined to enjoy.

>>了解我们的细节(这是他们唯一的工作)，因为他们会建议我们约会的对象，建议我们会喜欢的爱好，以及我们将喜欢享受的假期。

>> Are programmed to be emotionally available (which gives them personalities) which in turn encourages us to give them names. Debates regularly arise about their civil rights.

>>被编程为在情感上可用(赋予他们个性)，从而鼓励我们给他们起名字。 关于公民权利的辩论经常出现。

BOTS DON’T ARGUE WITH US (THOUGH THEY MIGHT NAG US A BIT)

机器人不与我们结盟(他们可能会咬我们一点点)

If our bots get too intrusive they profusely apologize or volunteer to self-adjust their filters. In many ways, they are equal members of our inner circle. When we remark: “We can’t live without them,” we’re not kidding.

如果我们的漫游器过于挑衅，他们会道歉或自愿对过滤器进行自我调整。 在许多方面，它们是我们内心圈子的平等成员。 当我们说：“没有他们我们就活不下去”，我们不是在开玩笑。

>> In home and family life, robots care for our aging grandparents, clean the house and take us (and the kids) where we want to go. They track our commitments (while relieving us of many) and let us know when a task is best performed by us (or other humans). Living a day without them would be challenging, if not impossible.

>>在家庭和家庭生活中，机器人会照顾我们年迈的祖父母，打扫房子并把我们(和孩子们)带到我们想去的地方。 他们跟踪我们的承诺(同时减轻了我们的许多负担)，并让我们知道何时由我们(或其他人)最好地执行任务。 如果没有他们，一天没有他们的生活将充满挑战。

>> Bots tell us anything we want to know. Our virtual assistants are with us 24/7 to retrieve the information we need, when we need it. At the office, we collaborate with bots to allocate manufacturing and marketing tasks between the bot and human workforce. When we leave for home, our bots continue to work on our behalf because they aren’t satisfied until they’ve achieved maximum productivity. The word “waste” has become largely extinct.

>>机器人告诉我们任何我们想知道的事情。 我们的虚拟助手与我们24/7一起在需要时检索我们所需的信息。 在办公室，我们与机器人合作，以在机器人和人工之间分配制造和营销任务。 当我们离开家时，我们的机器人会继续为我们工作，因为直到达到最大生产力，他们才会感到满意。 “废物”一词在很大程度上已经灭绝。

>> Male-female roles are interchangeable as women run mega-corporations and men stay at home with the kids. The same trend has spilled into fashion which is entirely unisex and doesn’t discern men/women sizing options.

>>随着女性经营大型公司而男人与孩子待在家里，男女角色可以互换。 相同的趋势已经蔓延到时尚界，这完全是中性的，不能识别男女大小的选择。

A NEW BOTFORCE

新的力量

In 2050 smart machines have taken over manufacturing, assembling, inspecting, packaging and distribution. As humans, we watch out for problems and crush any issues that get in the way to assure our bots perform optimally. Mechanical problems never occur thanks to bots that have been dedicated to predictive maintenance.

2050年，智能机器接管了制造，组装，检查，包装和分配。 作为人类，我们要当心问题，并粉碎任何妨碍确保机器人最佳性能的问题。 得益于专门用于预测性维护的机器人，机械问题永远不会发生。

Some bots even take on a role of boss, helping workers manage their tasks while suggesting real-time adjustments to optimize results. When our personal performance improves, the resultant emotional rewards make it tough to “hate the boss.”

一些机器人甚至扮演老板的角色，帮助工人管理任务，同时建议实时调整以优化结果。 当我们的个人绩效得到改善时，由此产生的情感奖励使“讨厌老板”变得困难。

Our customers also interact with our bot-enabled workforce. In the future, we have given the often-unpleasant (usually tedious) task of customer service to bots (which have already reduced the CSR workforce). Buyers in our target markets expect our robots and virtual assistants to be acutely sensitive to their needs. While our customers could previously discern us from our bots, they aren’t so sure anymore. But, they don’t really care as long as their problem goes away.

我们的客户还与我们的支持bot的员工互动。 将来，我们已经将通常不愉快的(通常是乏味的)客户服务任务交给了机器人(机器人已经减少了CSR的劳动力)。 目标市场的购买者期望我们的机器人和虚拟助手对他们的需求极为敏感。 尽管我们的客户以前可以从我们的漫游器中识别出我们，但他们不再那么确定。 但是，只要问题解决，他们就不会在乎。

Leaps in quantum computing. Innovation in sheer computer power has propelled the development of deep neural network (DNN) models, leading to breakthroughs in the management of renewable energy sources, healthcare and food production. Combine this with increased deployment of deep-learning models, and the production of food and other replenishables become highly affordable (which could signal the end of poverty and a reduction in global population growth).

飞跃量子计算。 纯粹的计算机能力的创新推动了深度神经网络(DNN)模型的发展，从而导致可再生能源，医疗保健和食品生产的管理取得突破。 再加上增加的深度学习模型的部署，粮食和其他可补给品的生产将变得负担得起(这可能标志着贫困的终结和全球人口增长的减少)。

Global weather patterns have become even harder to predict. Sea levels have risen and temperatures have grown hotter. Negative environmental impacts have created new economic opportunities — seized by clever startups that are combating climate change. Now, entrepreneurs steer us away from food sources that negatively impact the environment thanks to advances in food cloning. The resulting foods not only taste good — they are environmentally neutral. The consumption of insects and synthetic meat is also common.

全球天气模式变得更加难以预测。 海平面上升，温度上升。 负面的环境影响创造了新的经济机会，而这些新兴的机会却被聪明的初创公司抓住来应对气候变化。 现在，由于食品克隆技术的进步，企业家们使我们远离对环境造成负面影响的食品来源。 由此产生的食物不仅味道鲜美，而且对环境无害。 食用昆虫和合成肉也很常见。

LONGER, MORE PRODUCTIVE LIVES AT HOME AND WORK

更长，更在家中和工作中的生活

In 2050, smart machines in healthcare have revealed the root cause of most diseases. Genetic engineering has either reduced their seriousness or has eliminated them. We live longer, productive lives given advances in deep-learning models.

在2050年，医疗保健领域的智能机器已揭示出大多数疾病的根本原因。 基因工程已经降低了它们的严重性，或者已经消除了它们。 随着深度学习模型的发展，我们的寿命更长，生产性寿命更长。

We employ autonomous vehicles and robots for hazardous work, which dramatically reduces workforce injury and costs while boosting productivity. The cost of running a business has also sharply declined since healthcare is a basic service provided to all citizens.

我们采用自动驾驶车辆和机器人进行危险工作，这可以大大减少员工受伤和成本，同时提高生产率。 由于医疗保健是向所有公民提供的基本服务，因此经营企业的成本也已急剧下降。

Clean, renewable energy sources, including wind, solar and wave energy have been widely deployed, offloading the need for a long-distance energy grid. Many residents don’t purchase energy at all since their homes are self-sufficient.

清洁，可再生能源，包括风能，太阳能和波浪能，已得到广泛部署，从而消除了对长距离电网的需求。 由于他们的房屋自给自足，许多居民根本不购买能源。

HIGH JOB SATISFACTION IS THE NORM

高工作满意度是常态

Tasks we find necessary, but unrewarding, have largely been eliminated as we direct our actions to business areas of higher strategic value (such as custom, individualized services). Self-actualization has moved down the Maslow hierarchy of needs (perhaps even replaced with the pursuit of nirvana).

当我们将行动引导至具有较高战略价值的业务领域(例如定制，个性化服务)时，我们认为已消除但无用的任务已大为消除。 自我实现已经使马斯洛的需求层次下降了(也许甚至被追求的必杀技所取代)。

Smart machines have become particularly good at generating insight and advice to improve business performance. Countries that were previously at a technological disadvantage (due to cost) regularly deploy bots thanks to breakthroughs in economies of scale. All countries have started to relegate jobs that are unpleasant or highly dangerous to robots, which has improved worker safety. Some businesses have more bots than humans (since bots are able to deliver trusted results just as well, if not more effective, than humans).

智能机器已经特别擅长于提供洞察力和建议以改善业务绩效。 由于规模经济的突破，以前处于技术劣势(由于成本原因)的国家会定期部署机器人。 所有国家/地区都已开始放弃对机器人不愉快或高度危险的工作，从而提高了工人的安全性。 一些企业拥有比人类更多的机器人(因为机器人能够提供可信的结果(甚至比人类更有效))。

BUSINESS COMPETES IN NEW WAYS

商业竞争的新方式

In 2050, competition is more intense than ever given technology has leveled the playing field in many sectors, particularly financial services. Data has become a commodity. Executives no longer differentiate with super-efficient, data-driven enterprises.

2050年，竞争将比以往任何时候都更加激烈，因为技术已经在许多领域(尤其是金融服务)中拉平了竞争环境。 数据已成为一种商品。 高管不再与超高效，数据驱动的企业脱颖而出。

A new era of smart machines has also introduced new risk types. Cyber espionage is more common as competitors have no shame in stealing sensitive information (such as models and algorithms). Some bots inadvertently commit crimes which has lawyers and judges scratching their heads as they struggle to devise the right legal strategies and rulings.

智能机器的新时代也引入了新的风险类型。 网络间谍活动更为普遍，因为竞争对手在窃取敏感信息(例如模型和算法)方面不会感到羞耻。 一些漫游器无意中犯了罪行，导致律师和法官在努力制定正确的法律策略和裁决时抓狂。

Brand loyalty is nearly gone. Buyers get instant access to variable prices and differentiated feature information. Even as virtual assistants and robots become more integral to modern lifestyles, many laggards still refuse to adopt them. Such organizations are in decline (many have already failed).

品牌忠诚度几乎消失了。 购买者可以立即获得可变价格和差异化功能信息。 即使虚拟助手和机器人已成为现代生活方式的组成部分，许多落后者仍然拒绝采用它们。 这样的组织正在衰落(许多已经失败了)。

Everyone travels globally. It’s not uncommon for people to work all over the world as sub-orbital flight, solar-powered planes, and drone-airliners become the norm. Traditional hub airports have higher utilization rates as vertiports, helioports, high-speed trains, and regional short-distance flights interconnect with other means of transportation.

每个人都环球旅行。 随着亚轨道飞行，太阳能飞机和无人驾驶飞机成为常态，人们在世界各地工作的情况并不少见。 传统的枢纽机场具有较高的利用率，因为垂直端口，日程端口，高速火车和区域短途航班与其他交通工具相互连接。

Virtual is barely discernable from real. Zoom’s holographic features make virtual seem real. In personal entertainment, people bring hit musicals right into their living rooms as holographic actors become more common.

虚拟与真实几乎看不见。 Zoom的全息功能使虚拟显得真实。 在个人娱乐中，随着全息演员的普及，人们将热门音乐剧带入他们的客厅。

THE SINGULARITY IS HERE

这里的奇异之处

In 2050, the acceleration of human-machine singularity (as coined by Ray Kurzweil) is extending human life expectancy while improving life quality. Some smart machines are programmed and designed to build even more advanced machines including the underlying software to manage them.

在2050年，人机奇点的加速发展(由雷·库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)提出)正在延长人类的预期寿命，同时改善生活质量。 一些智能机器经过编程和设计，可以构建更高级的机器，包括用于管理它们的基础软件。

Computers are all around us. Our buildings and homes are embedded with microphones, speakers and sensors making access to virtual assistants readily available from anywhere and everywhere, both at work and at home. Our devices, everyday appliances, homes, offices and self-driving vehicles are managed through conversational interfaces.

电脑无处不在。 我们的建筑物和家中都嵌入了麦克风，扬声器和传感器，可以随时随地在工作和家庭中访问虚拟助手。 我们的设备，日常用品，家庭，办公室和自动驾驶汽车都通过对话界面进行管理。

Some automobiles have become travelling offices. Now, we conduct business as we travel to our next appointment. Micro-projection technology enables on-the-fly presentations or the ability to watch films and other entertainment on any qualifying surface.

一些汽车已经成为旅行办公室。 现在，我们前往下一次约会时开展业务。 微型投影技术可在任何合格的表面上进行即时演示或观看电影和其他娱乐内容。

Virtual and augmented reality are pervasive in training and education. Innovation in technology delivers a more natural way to learn. Holographic technology is used to project virtual assistants which makes them appear more real. In fact, bots may be made to resemble the people they’ve become.

虚拟现实和增强现实在培训和教育中普遍存在。 技术创新提供了一种更自然的学习方式。 全息技术用于投影虚拟助手，使虚拟助手看起来更真实。 实际上，机器人可能是模仿他们所成为的人而成的。

MUCH OF THIS WILL BE IN PLACE BY 2035

到2035年将有很多人使用

It will hardly take 30 years for all of this to begin. Over the next 15 years, AI, data science and smart machines will generate insight from data that has become digitally visible for the first time in human history — to solve problems that have evaded us for centuries. Technology will also be used to address some of the negative issues its created.

所有这一切几乎不需要30年就可以开始。 在接下来的15年中，人工智能，数据科学和智能机器将从人类历史上首次数字化可见的数据中获得洞察力，以解决数个世纪以来逃避我们的问题。 技术还将用于解决其带来的一些负面问题。

HOW WILL YOUR BUSINESS SEIZE THE DAY?

您的企业如何度过这一天？

Think cobots versus robots. Industrial robots, that we see at organizations such as Tesla, will begin to morph into cobots. As a result, executives should begin to consider how they’ll deploy bots that are easily programmed, mobile, and adaptable to dynamic usage models. Business leaders from all sectors and in organizations of all sizes should construct plans for a hybrid workforce where bots extend human capabilities (it’s not too early to start discerning tasks that need the creativity and experience of the human workforce from those that can be assumed by cobots).

想想协作机器人与机器人。 我们在特斯拉(Tesla)等组织中看到的工业机器人将开始演变为协作机器人。 因此，主管人员应开始考虑如何部署易于编程，移动并适应动态使用模型的机器人。 来自各个部门和各种规模组织的企业领导者应为混合型劳动力制定计划，其中机器人将扩大人类的能力(现在开始将需要人类劳动力的创造力和经验的任务与协作机器人可以承担的任务区分开来还为时过早)。

Don’t be shy about collaborating with machines. Today’s chatbots will start to be supplanted by virtual assistants that learn from observation, hence are proactive versus reactive. As virtual assistants mature as equal, contributing members of the workforce they will suggest resources we may not even be aware of as they track and monitor human-assigned tasks and deadlines. For now, start planning for the day when all teams in your workforce will include those that are virtual. Start to consider how you’ll balance humans and virtual workers across work groups to optimize productivity.

不要害羞与机器合作。 如今的聊天机器人将开始被从观察中学习的虚拟助手所取代，因此是主动还是被动。 随着虚拟助手的平等成熟，贡献力量的员工将建议我们甚至在跟踪和监视人员分配的任务和截止日期时甚至不知道的资源。 现在，开始计划您的工作团队中的所有团队都将包括虚拟团队的日子。 开始考虑如何在工作组之间平衡人员和虚拟工人以优化生产力。

It’s about the business model, stupid. We are already on the verge of an era where product differentiation is becoming less of a competitive weapon as AI inspires business models that propel new startup ideas, largely from innovative algorithms that model data in ways that deliver breakthrough efficiencies. In the future, success will be dependent more on models the business builds versus the data it controls. Data’s commoditization will also encourage business leaders to expand their repositories with more data that originates outside the business. Expect data scientists to add more anonymized data to large datasets to better train DNN models. You should also expect Insights derived from data outside the corporate four walls to become more valuable. Avoid reidentification in datasets.

这是关于商业模式的，愚蠢的。 我们已经处于一个时代的边缘，在这个时代，产品差异化已不再是一种竞争性武器，因为AI启发了推动新的创业理念的业务模型，这些创新很大程度上来自于创新的算法，这些算法以能够实现突破性效率的方式对数据进行建模。 将来，成功将更多地取决于业务构建的模型而不是其控制的数据。 数据的商品化还将鼓励业务领导者使用来自业务外部的更多数据来扩展其存储库。 期望数据科学家为大型数据集添加更多匿名数据，以更好地训练DNN模型。 您还应该期望从公司四面墙之外的数据得出的见解会变得更有价值。 避免在数据集中重新识别。

Conversational interfaces will soon become the norm. Breakthroughs in conversational and holographic technology will deliver more human-like emotions to our devices. Hence, users will increasingly anthropomorphize both virtual assistants and robots. Even if they don’t confuse the two in the short term, bots and humans will become increasingly difficult to discern in the future as robots and virtual assistants solve problems and make recommendations within the context of their user’s emotional state. Hence, start including sentiment analysis technology in your deployments of virtual assistants and robots. Assume conversational technology will continue its rapid advancement (meaning, expect lots of iterations as you deploy it).

对话界面将很快成为常态。 对话和全息技术的突破将为我们的设备带来更多类似于人的情感。 因此，用户将越来越多地虚拟化虚拟助手和机器人。 即使它们不会在短期内使二者混淆，随着机器人和虚拟助手解决问题并在用户的情绪状态下提出建议，将来机器人和人类将变得越来越难以辨认。 因此，开始在虚拟助手和机器人的部署中包括情绪分析技术。 假设对话技术将继续快速发展(意味着，在部署它时会期望很多迭代)。