模拟扑克牌大小软件

by Jeff Meyerson

杰夫·梅耶森(Jeff Meyerson)

扑克与软件工程 (Poker and Software Engineering)

As a poker player becomes a software engineer, certain trends about human-computer interaction become apparent:

随着扑克玩家成为软件工程师，有关人机交互的某些趋势变得显而易见：

• human poker players will lose to computers in the near future
  人类扑克玩家将在不久的将来输给计算机
• every field is plagued by the madness of crowds
  每个领域都被人群的疯狂所困扰
• emotional labor is a competitive advantage
  情感劳动是一种竞争优势
• creativity and autonomy are necessary for success
  创造力和自主权是成功的必要条件

This post explores each of these trends, explaining why these trends are important to poker players, software engineers, and everyone else.

本文探讨了每种趋势，并解释了为什么这些趋势对扑克玩家，软件工程师和其他所有人都很重要。

Automated Games

自动化游戏

In 2008, poker was the perfect sport for human-computer symbiosis. What Tyler Cowen said about freestyle chess also applied to poker:

在2008年，扑克是人机共生的完美运动。 泰勒·科恩(Tyler Cowen)关于自由式国际象棋的 说法也适用于扑克：

Even very strong computers don’t have that meta-rational sense of when things are ambiguous. Today, the human-plus-machine teams are better than machines by themselves. It shows how there may always be room for a human element.

甚至当非常强大的计算机也没有对事物何时出现歧义的元理性感。 如今，人加机器团队比单独的机器更好。 它显示了人类元素可能始终存在的空间。

In poker, a human with a statistical “heads-up” display can make decisions that are more mathematically justified than a human without such a tool.

在扑克中，具有统计“平视”显示的人可以做出比没有这种工具的人在数学上更合理的决策。

Heads-up displays create the poker version of “human-plus-machine teams”.

平视显示器将创建“人+机团队”的扑克版本。

One thesis of Average is Over is that a human will only be employable in the future by finding a career where human reasoning provides defensible value to the problem solving process of a computer.

平均的一个论点已经结束 就是说，人类只有在将来找到一种能够为计算机的问题解决过程提供合理价值的职业，才能就业。

If the human’s responsibilities are not defensible, the human will be obviated.

如果人类的责任不可辩驳，那么人类将被淘汰。

In a subsequent blog post, Cowen addresses the “flip” that can occur when a computational problem no longer requires human assistance:

在随后的博客文章中 ，Cowen解决了当计算问题不再需要人工协助时可能发生的“翻转”：

Fairly soon, the computer programs might be good enough that adding the human to the computer doesn’t bring any advantage. (That’s been the case in checkers for some while, as that game is fully solved.)

很快，计算机程序可能已经足够好，以至于在计算机上增加人员不会带来任何好处。 (这种游戏已经完全解决了，在跳棋中已经有一段时间了。)

Think about why such a flip might be in the works, even though chess is far from fully solved.

想想为什么即使国际象棋还没有完全解决，这种翻转还是有可能在作品中出现。

Poker players have been increasingly defeated by machines for the past 10 years. It is no surprise that Google’s AlphaGo has defeated human champion Lee Sedol.

在过去的十年中，扑克玩家越来越被机器 击败 。 毫不奇怪，Google的AlphaGo击败了人类冠军Lee Sedol。

If Google decided to beat humans at poker, it would be a trivial exercise for the researchers.

如果Google决定在扑克上击败人类， 这对于研究人员来说将是一件微不足道的练习 。

Poker seems different than Go or Chess, since there is nondeterminism. You start with two cards, but you don’t know how the board will develop. It would seem that fate is in control, unlike Go and Chess, which have no random elements.

扑克似乎与Go或Chess不同，因为存在不确定性。 您从两张牌开始，但是您不知道董事会将如何发展。 与Go和Chess不同，后者没有随机因素，似乎命运在掌控之中。

With just 4 suits and 13 ranks, a poker game has a trivial branching factor. The nondeterminism is so minimal for a computer to plan around that it is effectively deterministic.

扑克游戏只有4套衣服和13个等级，其分支系数很小。 对于计算机进行规划时，非确定性是如此之小，以至于它是有效的确定性。

Imagine if AlphaGo had to learn to play a version of Go with the following rule: at the beginning of each turn, flip a coin. If you lose the flip, you don’t get to move. Adjusting to this rule would be trivial. That is the magnitude of nondeterminism within poker.

想象一下，如果AlphaGo必须按照以下规则学习玩Go的版本：在每个回合开始时，掷一个硬币。 如果丢了翻盖，就不会动。 调整此规则将是微不足道的。 那就是扑克中不确定性的程度。

Poker, Chess, and Go have small decision spaces. The rules never change, the game pieces never change, there is minimal nondeterminism.

扑克，国际象棋和围棋的决策空间很小。 规则永不改变，游戏规则永不改变，几乎没有确定性。

A computer can assess a hand of poker as it would a hidden Markov model, but it will take work on par with the AlphaGo team for a computer to be trained to build a model accurately.

一台计算机可以像评估隐马尔可夫模型那样评估一手扑克，但是它将与AlphaGo团队进行同样的工作，以训练一台计算机来准确地建立模型。

The job of a professional poker player has been a bad long-term choice for a human to pursue for more than a decade, because it is vulnerable to automation.

十多年来，职业扑克玩家的工作一直是一个糟糕的长期选择，因为它容易受到自动化的影响。

Games like Go, Poker, and Chess can be automated with machine learning techniques we understand today. The rules, game piece schema, and objectives are easy to define, so these games are ripe for supervised learning and reinforcement learning.

Go，Poker和Chess等游戏可以使用我们今天了解的机器学习技术来自动化。 规则，游戏片段模式和目标易于定义，因此这些游戏对于监督学习和强化学习已经成熟。

Yann LeCun protested against the hype around the AlphaGo victory:

Yann LeCun抗议有关AlphaGo胜利的炒作：

As I’ve said in previous statements: most of human and animal learning is unsupervised learning. If intelligence was a cake, unsupervised learning would be the cake, supervised learning would be the icing on the cake, and reinforcement learning would be the cherry on the cake. We know how to make the icing and the cherry, but we don’t know how to make the cake.

正如我在之前的声明中所说：人类和动物的学习都是无监督的学习。 如果说智力是蛋糕，那么无监督学习将是蛋糕，监督学习将锦上添花，强化学习将是蛋糕上的樱桃。 我们知道如何制作糖衣和樱桃，但我们不知道如何制作蛋糕。

We need to solve the unsupervised learning problem before we can even think of getting to true AI. And that’s just an obstacle we know about. What about all the ones we don’t know about?

我们甚至需要考虑实现真正的AI之前，就需要解决无人监督的学习问题。 这只是我们所知道的障碍。 所有我们不知道的东西呢？

Poker is vulnerable to the same supervised learning and reinforcement learning techniques that allowed AlphaGo to beat Lee Sedol in Go.

扑克很容易受到AlphaGo在Go中击败Lee Sedol的监督学习和强化学习技术的影响。

Supervised learning is the machine learning task of inferring a function from labeled training data. Billions of hand histories exist for a poker bot to train on. These hand histories are short and well-schematized, perfect for consumption by an automaton.

监督学习 是从标记的训练数据中推断功能的机器学习任务。 存在数十亿手历史，可供扑克机器人继续训练。 这些手的历史很短且经过精心安排，非常适合自动机消费。

Reinforcement learning is learning by interacting with an environment. Poker bots can test and parallelize their strategies across the thousands of free or cheap poker games on the internet. The reward signal of a strategy can be defined as profit over a given time horizon.

强化学习 是通过与环境交互来学习。 扑克机器人可以在互联网上的数千种免费或廉价扑克游戏中测试并并行化其策略。 策略的奖励信号可以定义为给定时间范围内的利润。

Today, the surviving human professionals cannibalize each other. Before long, even the best of these players will be losing their money to bots.

如今，幸存的人类专业人员互相吞噬。 不久之后，即使是这些玩家中最好的也将失去他们的钱给机器人。

Games that cannot be easily solved with simple supervised learning and reinforcement learning will not be automated in the near future. Examples include Magic: the Gathering, Sim City, Minecraft, and Dungeons and Dragons.

不能通过简单的监督学习和强化学习轻松解决的游戏在不久的将来不会实现自动化。 例子包括魔术：聚会，模拟之城，Minecraft和龙与地下城。

Features of these games include:

这些游戏的功能包括：

• large branching factors at the points of nondeterminism
  在不确定性方面有很大的分支因素
• a large game piece corpus with a game piece schema that is hard to normalize
  具有难以标准化的游戏模式的大型游戏语料库
• non-negative sum nature
  非负和性质
• subjective player goals
  主观球员目标
• widely varying end-game states and win conditions
  广泛不同的最终状态和获胜条件

Rules, success, and failure are easy to define in Go, Chess, and Poker.

在Go，Chess和Poker中可以轻松定义规则，成功和失败。

In contrast, it is difficult to explain what makes an ideal Minecraft player. Different Minecraft players have different goals and win conditions. We have no way to supervise a computer to succeed at Minecraft, or to reward a computer for its desirable Minecraft behavior.

相比之下，很难解释什么使理想的Minecraft玩家成为现实。 不同的Minecraft玩家有不同的目标和获胜条件。 我们没有办法监督计算机在Minecraft上取得成功，也没有办法奖励计算机所期望的Minecraft行为。

Poker has 52 game piece types, Chess has 6, and Go has 1. Magic: the Gathering has 16,000+ unique cards. We don’t know how to teach a computer to understand the complex strategic relationships among these 16,000 different card types.

扑克有52种游戏棋子，国际象棋有6种，围棋有1种。魔术：聚会有16,000多张独特的纸牌。 我们不知道如何教计算机理解这16,000种不同卡类型之间的复杂战略关系。

Dungeons and Dragons is cooperative, positive sum, highly random, and oriented around subjective player goals. A computer won’t rival the creative, utilitarian humanism of a talented dungeon master any time soon, because we don’t have a good way to codify the traits of a successful game of Dungeons and Dragons.

龙与地下城是合作的，积极的总和，高度随机且围绕主观玩家目标进行。 一台计算机将不会在短期内与天才的地牢大师的创造力，功利主义的人文精神相抗衡，因为我们没有一个很好的方法来整理成功的《龙与地下城》游戏的特征。

As humans, these are the games we should be studying and celebrating.

作为人类，这些是我们应该研究和庆祝的游戏。

Go, Chess, and Poker were excellent pastimes before the renaissance of games we have had in the last 30 years. Today, there are better games.

在我们过去30年的游戏复兴之前，围棋，国际象棋和扑克是很好的娱乐方式。 今天，有更好的游戏。

AlphaGo proves that Go is just another routine that can be automated, like fast food preparation or truck driving.

AlphaGo证明Go只是另一个可以自动化的例程，例如快餐准备或卡车驾驶。

Rather than spending our time on Chess, Go, or Poker, human time is better spent playing games that mirror activities which a computer has trouble with.

与其将时间花在国际象棋，围棋或扑克上，不如将人类的时间花在玩能够反映计算机故障的游戏上。

Choosing a career as a professional poker player today is like choosing to be an Uber driver or an Amazon warehouse worker: you are waiting to be automated away.

今天选择职业扑克玩家的职业就像选择成为Uber司机或亚马逊仓库工人一样：您正在等待被自动淘汰。

Madness of Crowds

人群疯狂

In both poker and software, market participants confuse technical analysis with fundamental analysis.

在扑克和软件中，市场参与者都将技术分析与基本分析混为一谈。

Technical analysis is a security analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume.

技术分析是一种安全分析方法，用于通过研究过去的市场数据(主要是价格和数量)来预测价格走势 。

Contrasting with technical analysis is fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that influence the way investors price financial markets. Technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all the underlying fundamental factors.

与技术分析相反，是 基础分析 ，即影响投资者对金融市场定价方式的经济因素的研究。 技术分析认为，价格已经反映了所有潜在的基本因素。

Pure technical analysts believe dogmatically in the wisdom of the crowds.

纯粹的技术分析家信奉教条，相信群众的智慧。

Technical analysts believe there are no secrets, and that all human knowledge about the future is factored into the crowd’s evaluation of the present.

技术分析人员认为，这没有秘密，而且所有关于未来的人类知识都应归功于人们对当前的评价。

Reasoning about markets using first principles can lead to decisions that differ from the wisdom of the crowds. This is a form of fundamental analysis.

使用第一原则对市场进行推理可能导致做出与众不同的决定。 这是基础分析的一种形式。

In 2003, an accountant turned amateur poker player named Chris Moneymaker won the World Series of Poker. This coincided with ESPN’s increase in video coverage of the event. People started going to restaurants to watch poker like it was the Super Bowl.

2003年，一名会计从业的业余扑克玩家Chris Moneymaker赢得了世界扑克大赛。 这与ESPN赛事视频报道的增加相吻合。 人们开始去餐馆看扑克，就像超级碗一样。

As poker became popular across the world, many unskilled players began playing the game.

随着扑克在世界范围内的流行，许多不熟练的玩家开始玩游戏。

In 2004, any computer-savvy teenager could learn to play poker and take money from the numerous unskilled Americans who were trying to become the next Chris Moneymaker.

2004年，任何精通计算机的少年都可以学习打扑克，并从众多试图成为下一个克里斯·赚钱者的不熟练的美国人那里赚钱。

There was a wealth of information about how to win at poker online, and it didn’t require much effort to study enough of that information to be successful.

关于如何在在线扑克中获胜的信息很多，不需要花太多的精力去研究足够的信息就可以成功。

For teenagers who were good at online games, it was a gold rush. Teenagers who had skills from games like StarCraft and Magic Online quickly learned poker and began obliterating the unskilled amateurs.

对于擅长网络游戏的青少年来说，这是淘金热。 拥有《星际争霸》和《魔法在线》等游戏技能的青少年很快学会了扑克，并开始抹杀了那些不熟练的业余爱好者。

In 2006 the online poker bubble sprung a leak with the passage of the UIGEA. The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 made it difficult for amateur players to fund their online poker accounts with credit cards.

在2006年，在线扑克泡沫随着UIGEA的通过而突然泄漏。 2006年的《非法互联网赌博执行法》使业余玩家很难用信用卡为在线扑克帐户注资。

In 2008 the global economy collapsed, further reducing the number of casual gamblers on the Internet.

2008年，全球经济崩溃，进一步减少了互联网上休闲赌徒的数量。

In 2011 Black Friday occurred and it was discovered that Full Tilt Poker was a Ponzi scheme.

在2011年的黑色星期五期间 ，人们发现Full Tilt Poker是一种庞氏骗局。

Since 2006, online poker has gotten increasingly difficult, and an ever growing number of poker players have complained about the macro environment of poker.

自2006年以来，在线扑克变得越来越困难，并且越来越多的扑克玩家抱怨扑克的宏观环境。

Google Trends says that poker popularity has dropped by 80% following the passage of UIGEA in late 2006.

Google Trends说，随着UIGEA在2006年末通过，扑克的受欢迎程度下降了80％。

Since 2006, poker players have been saying: “there are no more weak amateurs. We are all fighting each other, and because we all have the same strategies, we are essentially flipping coins against each other. Poker has become a game of complete variance.”

自2006年以来，扑克玩家一直在说：“不再有虚弱的业余爱好者。 我们彼此之间都在战斗，并且由于我们都有相同的策略，因此我们实质上是在互相抛硬币。 扑克已经成为一种完全不同的游戏。”

None of this matters to Dan Cates, Mike McDonald, and Patrik Antonius. Their strategy is sufficiently better than their opposition that they have a fundamental opportunity. They have continued to win despite a steep increase in competition.

对于Dan Cates ， Mike McDonald和Patrik Antonius而言 ，这都不重要。 他们的策略比反对派要好得多，因此他们有基本的机会。 尽管竞争激烈，他们仍继续获胜。

Average poker players who are not innovative nor resilient viewed the events of 2006–2011 as fundamental threats to their viability as professional poker players, when in fact these problems were technical in nature.

不具有创新能力或韧性的普通扑克玩家将2006-2011年的事件视为对其职业扑克玩家生存能力的根本威胁，而实际上这些问题本质上是技术性的。

The details of the market changed, but the fundamental opportunity remained: the best players still have enough of an edge to make a great living playing poker.

市场的细节发生了变化，但是基本的机会仍然存在：最好的玩家仍然有足够的优势来玩扑克来谋生。

When investors and entrepreneurs talk about a “bubble” in Silicon Valley, they are talking about a technical bubble. Not a fundamental bubble.

当投资者和企业家谈论硅谷的“泡沫”时，他们谈论的是技术泡沫。 不是根本性的泡沫。

Cheap cloud computing, mobile phones, emerging markets of China and India, social networks, Docker, Bitcoin, supply chain economics, drones, fintech, virtual reality: these are fundamental opportunities with huge growth potential.

廉价的云计算，手机，中国和印度的新兴市场，社交网络，Docker，比特币，供应链经济学，无人机，金融科技，虚拟现实：这些都是具有巨大增长潜力的基本机遇。

When investors and entrepreneurs talk about how “Winter Is Coming”, what are the cited underpinnings of their panic?

当投资者和企业家谈论“ 冬天来了 ”时，他们的恐慌症的依据是什么？

Technical analysis that has little to do with the viability of growth-driving breakthrough technology.

与推动增长的突破性技术的可行性无关的技术分析。

Institutional investors pulling out of private markets? China being a house of cards? Oil? Greece? Technical chart patterns of 1999 showing a run-up that mirrors modern private markets? Food delivery startups being propped up by other startups?

机构投资者退出私募市场？ 中国是纸牌屋吗？ 油？ 希腊？ 1999年的技术图表形态显示出与现代私人市场相似的景象？ 餐饮配送初创公司是否被其他初创公司支撑？

There is no surer sign of the madness of crowds than when investors look to each other rather than fundamentals as they try to divine the true nature of private markets.

没有什么比当投资者试图互相了解私人市场的真实本质时，投资者更关注彼此而不是基本面的迹象了。

Investors who claim to pride themselves on long-term thinking often forget the technological fundamentals that determine long-term viability of companies.

声称以长期思考为荣的投资者通常会忘记决定公司长期生存能力的技术基础。

From 2006 to 2011, thousands of professional poker players quit the game, convinced that a certain popular narrative was true: poker had finally become a game of luck.

从2006年到2011年，成千上万的职业扑克玩家退出了游戏，深信某种流行的说法是对的：扑克终于成为一种运气游戏。

“When you think of it as a lottery ticket, when you say, ‘This might work, this might not work, I don’t know,’ you’ve already psyched yourself into losing. You’ve talked yourself into not doing as much work. Where we’ve done best over the years is where we had a lot of conviction, where we were willing to put a lot of money into things.”

“当您将其视为彩票时，当您说'这可能行得通，这可能行不通，我不知道，'您已经迷失了自己。 您已经说服自己不要做太多的工作。 多年来我们最擅长的地方是我们有很多信念，在那里我们愿意在事情上投入很多钱。”

-Peter Thiel

彼得·泰尔

Weak poker players quit as the bubble popped because they were convinced that poker had become so competitive that it was impossible to have an effective, differentiated strategy.

泡沫破灭后，弱势的扑克玩家退出了，因为他们坚信扑克已经变得如此具有竞争力，以至于不可能制定出有效的差异化策略。

Poker players who have faith in their own creativity continue to make a living through hard work and study.

对自己的创造力充满信心的扑克玩家将继续努力工作和学习。

In the near future, the antiportfolios of herd-mentality technology investors will swell at unprecedented rates as investors mistakenly look to each other for guidance, rather than looking at the fundamental opportunities afforded by our current technological boom.

在不久的将来， antiportfolios牧羊心理技术的投资者会以前所未有的速度膨胀，因为投资者错误地看向对方的指导，而不是看着我们目前的技术繁荣带来的根本性的机会。

Emotional Labor

情绪劳动

In 2004 and 2005, college students and well-educated yuppies started playing poker because it was a low-risk, easy way to make money. Wealthy, amateur American poker players were losing money to these college students and yuppies.

在2004年和2005年，大学生和受过良好教育的雅皮犬开始玩扑克，因为这是一种低风险，容易赚钱的方式。 富有的业余美国扑克玩家正在向这些大学生和雅皮士赔钱。

There was a huge difference in skill between these two classes of players.

这两类球员之间的技能差异很大。

The college students and yuppies read books about statistics, psychology, and complex poker strategy. The wealthy, amateur Americans watched poker on TV and tried to copy what they saw professionals doing on the screen.

大学生和雅皮士阅读有关统计，心理学和复杂扑克策略的书。 富有的业余美国人在电视上观看扑克，并试图复制他们在屏幕上看到的专业人士所做的事情。

For the well-educated college students and yuppies, the only requirement for succeeding at high-stakes poker was patience.

对于受过良好教育的大学生和雅皮士，成功获得高风险扑克的唯一要求是耐心。

Patience was important because the wealthy, amateur Americans played so poorly that a college student could sit around waiting for opportunities to get money into the pot with a 10:1 advantage.

耐心很重要，因为富有的业余美国人玩得不好，以至于大学生可以坐在那里等待机会，以10：1的优势将钱存入锅中。

From 2006 to 2011, legislative and economic circumstances pushed many of the amateur American players out of the game. As the wealthy amateurs disappeared from poker, the high-stakes field became 95% professionals.

从2006年到2011年，由于立法和经济原因，许多业余美国选手退出了比赛。 随着富裕的业余爱好者从扑克中消失，高风险领域变成了95％的专业人员。

In 2005, an average 6-handed online poker table contained 3 professionals and 3 amateurs. In 2006, an average table contained 4 professionals, 1 skilled amateur, and 1 weak amateur. By 2008, most tables were entirely filled with professionals and skilled amateurs.

在2005年，平均6人在线扑克桌包含3名专业人士和3名业余爱好者。 2006年，平均表包含4名专业人员，1名熟练的业余爱好者和1名虚弱的业余爱好者。 到2008年，大多数桌子都被专业人士和熟练的业余爱好者所占据。

Weak opponents were nowhere to be found.

弱者无处可寻。

In this new world of almost entirely professional poker players, emotional resilience was more important than patience.

在这个几乎完全是职业扑克玩家的新世界中，情绪弹性比耐心更为重要。

Professional players could no longer wait for a clear 10:1 or 5:1 advantage over their opponents. The timid college students and yuppies who maintained a patient, uncreative strategy started to lose money.

职业玩家不再等待明显超过对手的10：1或5：1优势。 胆小的大学生和雅皮士们坚持了耐心，不计后果的策略，开始赔钱。

Chaotic, hyperaggressive players began to force games in a direction with increased variance, making their opponents call into question their presumed risk-of-ruin. The most extreme example of this was Viktor Blom, a high-stakes player whose willingness to go broke seemed to exceed his fear, leading to a style where he would frequently overbet the pot.

混沌，好斗的玩家开始以方差增加的方向逼迫游戏，这使他们的对手质疑他们的假定的破产风险。 最极端的例子是高风险玩家维克多·布洛姆(Viktor Blom)，他的突破意愿似乎超出了他的恐惧，导致了他经常下注底池的风格。

A professional playing against Viktor Blom knew that more money would be lost or won in a short time frame than against anyone else.

与维克多·布洛姆(Viktor Blom)对抗的职业选手知道，在短时间内损失或赢得的钱要多于对抗其他任何人。

For Viktor Blom, the primary cost of using this strategy was that emotional control is harder to maintain when you are winning and losing millions of dollars on a more frequent basis than your opponents.

对于维克多·布洛姆(Viktor Blom)而言，使用这种策略的主要成本是，与对手相比，当您赢得和损失数百万美元的频率更高时，很难保持情绪控制。

The tradeoff was worth it. Viktor Blom’s brilliant strategy gave him both a mathematical advantage and a reputation advantage.

权衡是值得的。 维克多·布洛姆(Viktor Blom)的出色策略为他带来了数学上的优势和声誉上的优势 。

Why is this relevant to software engineering?

为什么这与软件工程有关？

Emotional labor is available to all of us, but it is rarely exploited as a competitive advantage.

情感劳动对我们所有人都可用，但很少被用作竞争优势。

-Seth Godin

塞斯·戈丁

Viktor Blom gained massive competitive advantage by committing emotional labor.

维克多·布洛姆(Viktor Blom)通过从事情感劳动获得了巨大的竞争优势。

He deliberately played poker in a way that was uncomfortable to everyone at the table, because he judged himself as more capable of dealing with that discomfort than everyone else.

他故意以对桌上的每个人都不舒服的方式玩扑克，因为他认为自己比其他人更能处理这种不适。

Most software engineers avoid emotional labor.

大多数软件工程师都避免情绪化的工作。

When software engineers choose to work at a large corporation because it seems luxurious and safe, they are making a mistake. There has never been a better time for engineers to take extreme risks with their careers.

当软件工程师因为看起来豪华而安全而选择在一家大公司工作时，他们就犯了一个错误。 工程师再没有比现在有了更好的时机来承担其职业的极端风险了。

Software engineers are incredibly privileged. Our 9–5 jobs are enjoyable and creative, and many of us have significant free time to do whatever we want. During their free time, software engineers should stretch themselves and exert emotional labor, and see what they are capable of.

软件工程师享有无与伦比的特权。 我们的9–5个工作愉快而富有创造力，我们中的许多人都有大量的空闲时间做我们想做的事情。 在闲暇时间，软件工程师应该全身心地投入精力，并努力看清自己的能力。

In 2005, professional poker players had the option to live a carefree lifestyle. We assumed the gold rush of online poker would never end. Many of us acted irresponsibly with money, as if we would be able to make $30,000 a month for the rest of our lives.

在2005年，职业扑克玩家可以选择过着无忧无虑的生活方式。 我们认为在线扑克的淘金热永远不会结束。 我们许多人不负责任地用钱行事，好像我们一生可以每月赚30,000美元。

When the poker economy collapsed, many professional poker players’ lives collapsed with it. We had gotten accustomed to The Good Life, but we hadn’t worked hard enough to capitalize fully on the opportunity at hand.

当扑克经济崩溃时，许多职业扑克玩家的生活也随之崩溃。 我们已经习惯了《好生活》，但是我们还没有足够的努力去充分利用眼前的机会。

Poker players who worked hard and worked smart during the 2003–2007 boom years were able to survive the bust.

在2003年至2007年的繁荣时期努力工作并精明工作的扑克玩家能够度过难关。

Most poker players did not work hard and smart during the boom.

在繁荣时期，大多数扑克玩家没有努力而聪明。

Most poker players did not practice emotional labor in 2005, when the game was easy. When poker became difficult in 2008, these players were fragile. Most professional poker players were unable to adapt to the newly competitive landscape.

大多数扑克玩家在2005年玩简单的游戏时就没有练习情绪化的工作 。 当2008年扑克变得困难时，这些球员变得脆弱。 大多数职业扑克玩家无法适应新的竞争格局。

In contrast, Viktor Blom got used to high-risk activity around 2005, shortly after he started to play poker:

相比之下， Viktor Blom在开始玩扑克后不久就习惯了高风险活动，于2005年左右：

After a few weeks of play, Blom90 was regularly playing at $530 sit n gos. After a few more months of play the 15-year-old Viktor Blom had made over $275,000 total at various sites. He then collected all the money onto one site and took on the higher buy-in cash games and sit n gos. This resulted him losing all the money. He then built up a bankroll and deposited $3,000 onto the same site, he took on high buy-in sit’n gos and started to win more and more money. After building his bankroll back up to $50,000 he took on a $310 sit’n go regular and once again lost everything.

玩了几周后，Blom90经常以$ 530的价格坐下。 在玩了几个月后，这位15岁的Viktor Blom在各个地点总共赚了超过$ 275,000。 然后，他将所有资金收集到一个站点上，并进行了更高级别的买入现金游戏，并坐了下来。 这导致他赔了所有钱。 然后，他积累了一笔资金，并在同一个网站上存了3,000美元，他用高额买入的静观其变，开始赢得越来越多的钱。 在积累了高达$ 50,000的资金后，他进行了$ 310的静息常规赛，再次失去了一切。

Viktor Blom went broke twice as a teenager.

维克多·布洛姆(Viktor Blom)少年时代两次破产。

Going broke is not always virtuous. For some poker players, being broke is an addiction. They will make a career out of the manic-depressive cycle of building huge piles of money, only to lose it all.

破产并不总是善良的。 对于某些扑克玩家来说，破产是一种瘾。 他们将摆脱狂躁而沮丧的循环，积累大量的金钱，却全输光了。

Viktor Blom became antifragile from his early experiences going broke.

维克多·布洛姆(Viktor Blom)从他的早期经历中变得脆弱起来。

This was long before his winning streak in 2009. When the poker economy collapsed, it didn’t severely affect Viktor Blom because he had been forcefully challenging himself for years before.

这距离他2009年的连胜纪录还很遥远。当扑克经济崩溃时，这并没有对Viktor Blom造成严重影响，因为他多年来一直在强力挑战自己。

In the early days of his career, Viktor relentlessly took risks. The strength of the 2005 poker economy allowed him to rebuild his bankroll each time he went broke.

在职业生涯的早期，Viktor坚持不懈地冒险。 2005年扑克经济的实力使他每次破产都可以重建自己的资金。

Software engineers today should be acting like Viktor Blom in 2005.

今天的软件工程师的行为应该像2005年的Viktor Blom。

In 2005, Viktor could lose his entire bankroll playing high stakes, it was easy to rebuild at mid-stakes games. By increasing short-term risk of ruin, he decreased long-term risk of ruin.

在2005年，Viktor在高额赌注中可能输掉全部资金，在中赌注游戏中很容易重建。 通过增加短期破坏的风险，他降低了长期破坏的风险。

In 2016, a software engineer can quit a corporate job and build side projects for 6 months. If none of the side projects turns into a marketable product, that engineer can always go back to the corporation, and can probably ask for a higher salary thanks to the new skills learned from working on those side projects.

在2016年，软件工程师可以退出公司的工作，并建立为期6个月的副项目。 如果没有一个副项目变成可销售的产品，那么该工程师可以随时返回公司，并可能会因在这些副项目上学习到的新技能而要求更高的薪水。

Risk taking is an act of emotional labor.

冒险是一种情绪化的行为。

Software engineers can build a product, start a business, write an algorithm, launch a rocket, or program a self-driving car. All of these activities require risk. But many software engineers spend their spare time doing activities with very low risk.

软件工程师可以制造产品，开展业务，编写算法，发射火箭或为自动驾驶汽车编程。 所有这些活动都需要冒险。 但是许多软件工程师将业余时间花在风险很小的活动上。

If you commit to being a software engineer who is willing to take risks and commit to emotional labor, you can easily stand out from others.

如果您致力于成为愿意承担风险并致力于情感工作的软件工程师，则可以轻松地与众不同。

Build Your Own Ship

建造自己的船

I spent my late teenage years playing poker and didn’t write a line of code until my early twenties. Most of the successful engineers I know were coding during their teens.

我十几岁的时候玩扑克 ，直到二十多岁才写代码。 我认识的大多数成功工程师都是在十几岁的时候进行编码的。

In order to catch up, I have had to leverage the skills I learned playing poker.

为了赶上，我不得不利用我学到的扑克技巧。

Many new engineers today are faced with the same problem.

今天，许多新工程师都面临着同样的问题。

You are learning to code as a second career, and it can feel very difficult because it feels like you are throwing away everything from the past and starting from scratch.

您正在学习编码，这是第二职业，这会让您感到非常困难，因为感觉就像您正在抛弃过去的一切，从头开始。

Whether you are trained as a barista, a salesperson, or a biologist, you must find skills from your past that you can carry into your career as a software engineer.

无论您是接受过咖啡师，销售员还是生物学家的培训，都必须从过去的技能中找到可以带入软件工程师职业的技能。

A barista is great at sequencing operations that are less trivial than they seem. A salesperson understands how to work with clients and cater to their needs in high-stakes projects. A biologist understands abstractions, and how to think about individual parts of a system in isolation.

咖啡师擅长排序操作，看上去比看起来要简单。 销售人员了解如何与客户合作，并满足高风险项目中他们的需求。 生物学家了解抽象，以及如何孤立地思考系统的各个部分。

Being an outsider is a disadvantage at first, but over time it has tremendous value.

首先，成为局外人是不利的，但是随着时间的流逝，它具有巨大的价值。

Every job you have had in the past has transferrable skills that can be applied to software engineering. Identifying the advantages you have developed from your past experiences can help you feel more confident.

您过去所从事的每一项工作都具有可转让的技能，可以将其应用于软件工程。 确定您从过去的经验中获得的优势可以帮助您感到更加自信。

When you start out as a software engineer, many developers will tell you what to do and how you should act.

当您刚开始担任软件工程师时，许多开发人员会告诉您该怎么做以及应该如何采取行动。

These people say: Learn JavaScript. Go to a coding boot camp. Write tests for all your code. Learn to make mobile apps. Use StackOverflow. Learn functional programming. Become a master of the command line.

这些人说：学习JavaScript。 前往编码训练营。 为所有代码编写测试。 学习制作移动应用。 使用StackOverflow。 学习函数式编程。 成为命令行大师。

Every person learns software engineering differently.

每个人对软件工程的学习都不一样。

Software engineering is an art. To succeed as artists, we have to decide what tools and methodologies we want to use. We have to decide for ourselves.

软件工程是一门艺术。 为了成功地成为艺术家，我们必须决定要使用哪些工具和方法。 我们必须自己决定。

Poker is also an art. There is no objectively “best” way to play poker. Poker players develop their art form through years of subjective experience.

扑克也是一门艺术。 没有客观的“最佳”玩法。 扑克玩家通过多年的主观经验来发展自己的艺术形式。

Haseeb Qureshi described this in “Poker as Shipbuilding”, a section from his masterpiece The Philosophy of Poker:

Haseeb Qureshi在他的杰作《扑克哲学 》的“扑克造船”中对此进行了描述：

Imagine that your poker game is a ship, and you, the poker player, are the shipbuilder.

假设您的扑克游戏是一艘船，而您(扑克玩家)是造船者。

Your ship is not an extension of you. It is not something internal, which exists in your mind. We want to imagine instead that a poker game is an external object — your object, certainly, the product of your craft and hard work, but nevertheless something that exists “out there,” ready to be analyzed, taken apart, and put back together. As a shipbuilder, you have a lot of choices to make on how to craft your ship.

你的船不是你的延伸。 它不是内部的东西，它存在于您的脑海中。 我们要想像的是，扑克游戏是一个外部对象-当然，您的对象是您的技术和辛勤工作的产物，但是尽管如此，某些东西“存在于”那里，可以进行分析，分解和组合在一起。 作为造船厂，您在如何制造船舶方面有很多选择。

What kind of poker game do you want to build?

您要构建哪种扑克游戏？

You look out into the sea of poker and see hundreds of thousands of ships, all constructed differently, with seemingly varied ideas and intentions behind their construction. Naturally, you only want to choose the best ships to emulate. So you watch videos of the great players, sweat the high stakes games, read well-written articles — and you try to fashion your ship in their likenesses.

您可以看到扑克之海，看到数十万艘船，它们的构造各不相同，其建造背后的想法和意图似乎各不相同。 自然地，您只想选择最佳的战舰进行模拟。 因此，您观看了伟大球员的视频，在高额桌游戏中大汗淋漓，阅读了写得很好的文章，然后尝试以他们的形象来塑造自己的飞船。

But there is a fatal fallacy embedded in this process: no matter how many ships you look at, be it hundreds or thousands, even ships of the finest quality, no amount of studying such ships is going to make you able to build one for yourself. Because looking at ships is a very different process from actually building them. Even if you see a hundred ships which have solved the problem of how to construct a ship, how to keep it upright, how to balance the hull and the mast — you will still have to figure out through building how to solve these problems. You must learn how to build a ship not just in your mind but in your hands — put plank against plank, hammer against nail.

但是这个过程中蕴含着致命的谬误：无论您看的是几百艘还是几千艘，甚至是质量最好的船舶，对此类船舶的研究也无济于事，您可以自己建造一艘。 因为查看船舶与实际建造船舶是一个非常不同的过程 。 即使您看到一百艘船已经解决了如何建造船，如何保持直立，如何平衡船体和桅杆的问题，您仍然必须通过建造来解决这些问题。 您必须学习如何不仅在您的头脑中，而且在您的手中建造一艘船 -将木板对木板，锤对钉子。

As a poker player, I failed because I copied what I saw other people doing without understanding the reasoning behind it. I did not build my own ship as a poker player.

作为一名扑克玩家，我失败了，因为我复制了别人看到的内容，却不了解背后的原因。 我不是自己作为扑克玩家建造自己的飞船的。

If your strategy is to copy others, you cannot differentiate yourself from the global talent pool. You cannot differentiate yourself from the machines that are getting smarter every day.

如果您的策略是复制他人，那么您就无法与全球人才库区分开。 您无法将自己与每天变得越来越智能的机器区分开。

As a software engineer, I try not to make the mistake of blindly copying what is fashionable. A decade ago, I lost most of my money because I was simply following what others were doing.

作为软件工程师，我尽量避免犯盲目复制时尚事物的错误。 十年前，我损失了大部分钱，因为我只是在关注别人的所作所为。

It is useful to have such a history of pain associated with copying others.

具有这样的与他人复制相关的痛苦历史很有用。

For most people, blindly copying others alleviates pain. When I feel like I am copying others without understanding why, my gut response is to be ashamed and scared of own tendency to replicate.

对于大多数人来说，盲目模仿别人可以减轻痛苦。 当我觉得自己在抄袭别人而又不理解为什么时，我的直觉就会感到as愧和害怕自己的复制倾向。

If you don’t copy the behavior of other engineers, your manager cannot treat you as a highly predictable commodity. You can’t be spun up and assigned to a task like an EC2 cluster.

如果您不模仿其他工程师的行为，那么您的经理就无法将您视为具有高度可预测性的商品。 您无法快速启动并分配给EC2群集之类的任务。

If you aren’t a highly predictable commodity, you will probably be fired or promoted.

如果您不是高度可预测的商品，则可能会被解雇或晋升。

Unfortunately, most companies are not set up to support or encourage entrepreneurial behavior.

不幸的是， 大多数公司并未成立来支持或鼓励企业家行为 。

Many software engineers end up stuck in jobs that make them unhappy because they simply take orders and do not think through things themselves, considering all their options, and seeing the bigger picture.

许多软件工程师最终陷入了使他们感到不高兴的工作中，因为他们只是简单地接订单，而不是自己思考问题，考虑所有选择，并看到更大的前景。

Software engineers need to build their own ships.

软件工程师需要建造自己的飞船。

If your strategy as a software engineer is to only copy what you have already seen, you will follow people into old technologies. You will start companies in crowded markets. You will find yourself surrounded by other people who are afraid to create their own strategies, technologies, and products.

如果您作为软件工程师的策略是仅复制已经看到的内容，那么您将跟随人们进入旧技术。 您将在拥挤的市场中创办公司。 您会发现自己被其他害怕创建自己的战略，技术和产品的人所包围。

If you build your own ship, the world is full of opportunity.

如果您自己建造一艘船，那么世界将充满机会。

翻译自: https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/poker-and-software-engineering-e77963d5177c/

模拟扑克牌大小软件