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1、Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲Oracle应用系统进展势头强劲要紧竞争对手业绩不佳，99年广3季度软件销售额增长率(同比上年)如下：99年第二季度99年第三季度Oracle5%28%11%Peoplesoft-44%-61%-67%SAP-8%-15%-26%竞争对手业绩不佳的要紧缘故是:向e-business方向转变太慢销售队伍严峻流失在客户关系治理领域(CRM)落后处在产品转型时期风险大分析家们对它们近期前景亦不看好(详细内容请参阅下面文章)Both SAP and PSFT made disappointing pre-a nnouncements last weekindicatin。

2、g their results for Q3 would be w eaker thananalysts expected- Final results for both companies were release withinthe past two days.In SAP reported final Q3 numbers in line w ith pre-announced results of(7%) total revenue growth and (26%) pure 1 icense growth. Analyst agreedthe revisions were signi。

3、ficant and the potentim丄 for further downside isgreater than the likelihood of any upside in the near-term. TheUS-based business continues to struggle, w ith moderate improvement in the Asia/Pacific region. The primary surp rise for the quarter came from higher-than-expected operating expenses a s S。

4、AP continugs to invest heavily in R&D and marketing to support it s newly launched internet strategy11. Average revenue per new sale f ell significantly as a result of increased mid-market sales, incremental sales to the installed base,lower priced add-ons, and more prospects b uying in smaller chun。

5、ks. The overwhelming consensus among tbe analysts for SAP is an environment characterized by a number of challenges, i ncluding a tough macroeconomicsituation, continued salesforce attrition (especially in the U.S.), anda complicated and late transition in an ef fort to become aninternet-enabled bac。

6、k- and front-office ap plication provider.Furthermors analysts expressed concern wi th the fundamental trend ofSAP! s decreasing high-margin license reven ue coupled with theirincreasing low-margin consulting revenue.The consensus following management!s comments was predominantly ch aracterized as c。

7、autiously uncertain, with no clearly available cmtml yst to generate near-term interest in the stockPSFT1s reported Q3 resuIts were in line wi th the recent downwardlyrevised guidance given in the Company1s Oc tober 11thpre-release. License revenue for the quar ter was down 67% year overyear, with m。

8、anagement attributing the shor tfall to thecontinued soft demand for PSFT1s core back -office appliestions，especially in the U.S. marketplace. Two n oted concernsamong a number of analysts include issues surrounding PSFT1s lack ofcompetitiveness in a shift to a e-business drivenmarketplace as well a。

9、s PSFT1s inability toretain talented individuals.The hard-to-answer question remains the ti ming for apotential recovery as PSFT shifts its prod uct base towards e-businesssolutions and eventually integrates front office supplierVantive. Analysts current expectations a re for some recovery beginning。

10、in early 2000, but acknowledge that transi tion risksremain, and caution investors that it is s afer to remain on thesidelines in the nearterm. Overall, the analysts 1 sentiment towardsPSFT was similar to that of SAP - you1 re behind the times and havequite a way to catch up! As a result A neit her 。

11、represents athreat to ORCL in the foreseeable future.Summary of Results:ERP license revenue comparison:YoY pure license growth:CY QICYQ2CYQ3ORCL5%28%11%PSFT(44%)(61%)(67%)SAP(8%)(15%)(26%)SAP Operating Margin: 7.3% vs 19.3% in Q398Peoplesoft Operating Margin:1.5% vs 18.6% in Q398Analyst Quotes:- Nei。

12、l Herman, Salomon Smith Barney11 While, in our view, the macroeconomic env ironment for the ERP playersmay have stopped getting worse, SAP has so me work to do regarding its mySAP and Inte rnet initiatives. Therefore, we are incli ned to believe that this may not be the la st disappointing earnings 。

13、announcement bef ore the company emergesfrom the forest”-Devika Malik, J.P. MorgannWe think that SAP 1s weak third-quarter re suits are due to two factors:(1.) based on our ongoing discussions with CIOs(head of IT) we believe that companies ar e completing their Y2Kremediation work and new projects 。

14、will not start untilfourth-quarter 1999 at the earliest; and(2 .) we feel that there is alsoa product transition issue. SAP launched mySAP.com inmid-September and orders for SAP ! s R3 prod ucts will probably suffer ascustomers review the newer internet enable dsolution.n- Steve Palfreyz BernsteinnW。

15、e continue to see evidence in the market the PSFT is having to fightconcerns in the market about its long term streng th. Webelieve that to regain its momentum in the marketplace, PSFT needs tofocus it energy on a few vertical markets where it candifferentia te it self from ORCL and SAP W e continue。

16、 to rate PeopleSoftmarket perform. Until PeopleSoft shows signs that itcan regain the market share it has lost th is year and beat estimates in2000, it is unlikely to outperform. Howev erA given thelow expectations for license growth in the near termz significantdownside to the stock also appears un。

17、likely.- Rich Scocozza, Bear SternsnWe believe the ongoing weakness in product license revenue is due tocore ERP market saturation and shifting so ftwarepriorities, particu丄arJLy toward e-commerc e . Companies are moreconcerned about building a connected busin ess, andPeopleSoft is playing catch up in terms of exploiting this opportunity. nMarket Summary, October 20, 1999:DOW INDUNASDAQORCLPSFT10392.36+187.4(+1.84%)2788.13+99.95(+3.72%)44 3/4+15/16(+2.1%)14 9/16-7/16(-2.9%)SAP34 1/2-2(-5.5。