Five years isn’t that long in the big scheme of things, and yet, it’s safe to say that in 2015, few of us could have predicted just how much things would change — and in what weird ways they’d change.

五年对于大型事物而言并不算长，但是可以肯定地说，在2015年，我们当中很少有人能够预测 出事物将发生多大的变化 ，以及它们将以何种怪异的方式变化。

Similarly, we can expect much to change in 2020 and the years to come. And while we’re not predictors of the future, we’ve got five predictions for creative jobs in 2020.

同样，我们可以预期2020年及以后的几年会发生很大变化。 虽然我们不是未来的预测者，但我们对2020年的创意工作有五项预测。

混合动力的兴起 (The Rise of the Hybrid)

College graduates are no longer coming out of marketing programs as one-trick ponies. That junior copywriter you just hired may also be a portrait photographer/graphic designer/coder-in-the-making. The next generation of creatives will seek opportunities to explore all their interests and capabilities simultaneously. So agencies and in-house teams should take note by adapting their offerings and entry-level tracks to match the change of the times.

大学毕业生不再以一招小马的形式退出市场营销计划。 您刚刚雇用的那位初级文案撰稿人也可能是肖像摄影师/图形设计师/制作人员。 下一代创意者将寻求机会，同时探索他们的所有兴趣和能力。 因此，代理机构和内部团队应通过调整其产品和入门级跟踪来适应时代的变化，从而引起注意。

“Kids come out of college today with a fiery creative spirit and a desire to create all the time. They are hybrids. Defining them would be putting them in a straitjacket,” said Havas GCD Paul Vinod.

“如今，孩子们以强烈的创造精神和无时无刻的创造欲望离开大学。 他们是杂种。 定义他们要放他们在一个紧箍咒，” 说哈瓦斯GCD保罗·维诺德。

创意既艺术又科学 (Creative as Both Art and Science)

“[In the next five years,] I don’t know if specific jobs functions will no longer exist per se, but I do think that any creative working in a marketing-related job will need to allow data to play an important role in shaping their creative concepts” said Melina Peterson, founder of Cornerlight Digital. “For example, in order for creative to work well in ads on constantly changing social media platforms, a real-time feedback loop of ‘what’s working’ and ‘what’s not’ is key to driving positive results. Creative has to be produced with both art and science in mind.”

“ [在未来五年内，我不知道特定的工作职能本身是否将不再存在，但我确实认为，从事与营销相关的工作的任何创意都需要让数据在以下方面发挥重要作用：塑造他们的创意概念。” Cornerlight Digital创始人Melina Peterson说。 “例如，为了使广告素材能够在不断变化的社交媒体平台上的广告中很好地发挥作用，“有效”和“无效”的实时反馈循环是获得积极效果的关键。 创作必须兼顾艺术和科学。”

精明的生存 (Survival of the Savvy)

With once seemingly unshakable media companies now struggling and huge layoffs across the board, those that survive will be the savviest among them. Mergers may become the norm, as firm leaderships identify potential partner companies. Let’s take Vox Media acquiring New York Magazine as an example.

曾经看似不可动摇的媒体公司现在都在挣扎 ， 裁员人数巨大 ，那些幸存者将是其中最精明的。 随着公司领导层确定潜在的合作伙伴公司，合并可能成为常态。 让我们以Vox Media收购《纽约杂志》为例。

“No one had to do this. It’s a brilliant opportunity, so that’s why we leaned into it,” said New York Media CEO Pamela Wasserstein of the merger. “It’s not out of need. It’s out of ambition.”

“没有人必须这样做。 这是一个绝佳的机会，所以这就是我们要抓住机会的原因。”合并后的纽约媒体首席执行官帕梅拉·瓦瑟斯坦(Pamela Wasserstein) 说 。 “这并非没有必要。 这是出于野心。”

Enjoy reading great design insight? Get more fresh design news and inspiration over at Ceros Inspire.

喜欢阅读出色的设计见解吗？ 在 Ceros Inspire 获得更多新鲜的设计新闻和灵感 。

The merging companies claimed it wasn’t a cost-cutting measure, but a potentially symbiotic working relationship that they believe will benefit both companies. It remains to be seen whether that’s true — this week, Vox laid off hundreds of freelance contractors in California ahead of the state’s new gig economy law — but for now, we’ll take Wasserstein & Co. at their word.

合并的公司声称这不是削减成本的措施，而是潜在的共生的工作关系，他们认为这将使两家公司受益。 这是否成立尚有待观察-本周，Vox在加州新的零工经济法颁布之前在加利福尼亚解雇了数百名自由承包人-但就目前而言，我们将信守Wasserstein＆Co.的话。

没有人关心你上大学 (No One Cares You Went to College)

Once the only way to get a foot in the door, creative jobs at major companies, such as Apple, Netflix, and Google, no longer require applicants to have a college degree. Considering the rapidly-rising cost of higher education in America (the average student graduates with $29,800 in debt, according to Student Loan Hero), this shift will likely make new career tracks increasingly accessible to the general population.

曾经是进入公司大门的唯一途径，在主要公司(如Apple，Netflix和Google)的创造性工作不再要求申请人具有大学学历。 考虑到美国高等教育成本的快速上涨( 根据Student Loan Hero的数据 ，平均每名应届毕业生的背负29,800美元的债务)，这种转变将可能使新的职业道路越来越为普通大众所接受。

“We’ve never really thought that a college degree was the thing that you had to do well. We’ve always tried to expand our horizons,” said Apple CEO Tim Cook.

“我们从来没有真正想到过大学学位是你要做得很好的事情。 我们一直试图扩大视野，” 苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)说 。

内部和独立机构的兴起 (Rise of in-house and independent agencies)

“The holding group model is broken,” said a succinct, spot-on lede in a recent AdWeek article. And just as the rigidly traditional Mad Men-era agencies had to adapt or die, holding company behemoths are experiencing the same sort of reckoning. As agencies are bought out and bureaucratic red tape seems to hold together every brief, clients are bringing more work in-house than before. In fact, according to a 2018 Association of National Advertisers Report, 90% of surveyed brands say they’ve boosted their internal operations. We predict the trend will continue, if slowly, and that there will be a moment in the sun for independent agencies, and a continued bulk-up of in-house talent.

“控股集团的模式被打破了，”在AdWeek最近的一篇文章中 ，一个简洁， 直白的观点说 。 正如严格的传统“ 狂人”时代的机构不得不适应或消亡一样，控股公司的庞然大物也在经历着同样的估算。 随着代理商被收购，官僚主义的繁文every节似乎束手无策，客户带来的内部工作比以前更多。 事实上，根据2018年全国广告商协会报告 ，有90％的接受调查的品牌表示他们已经提高了内部运营水平。 我们预计，这种趋势将持续下去，甚至是缓慢的发展，独立机构将有片刻的阳光，内部人才的持续增加。

Enjoy reading great design insight? Get more fresh design news and inspiration over at Ceros Inspire.

喜欢阅读出色的设计见解吗？ 在 Ceros Inspire 获得更多新鲜的设计新闻和灵感 。