Confronting a racist past with hard data

面对种族主义过去与硬数据

The debate over Confederate monuments debate has largely been one focused on American history; on slavery, on the Civil War, on Reconstruction, and above all on the overarching, ongoing struggle against racial discrimination against Black people in the United States.

吨他盯上了南方的古迹的争论在很大程度上是一个专注于美国的历史; 关于奴隶制，内战，重建，以及最重要的是，正在进行的反对美国针对黑人的种族歧视的持续斗争。

As it turns out, the case against symbols to the Confederacy extends beyond the history textbooks. In this analysis of the data surrounding symbols dedicated to the Confederacy, I will make the case that even the raw numbers and statistics describing these symbols show that across time and place, these symbols to the old Confederate States of America are deeply and directly tied to a legacy of discrimination against Black Americans.

事实证明，反对联邦标志的论据超出了历史教科书的范围。 在分析有关联盟专用符号的数据时，我将假设即使描述这些符号的原始数字和统计数据也表明，在时间和地点上，这些符号与旧的美国同盟国息息相关。歧视黑人美国人的遗产。

To do this, I’ll focus largely on charts and images that are hopefully readable and accessible. You can read everything in-depth if you like, but glancing over the graphics alone should give you a sense for what’s going on. We’ll look at the characteristics that Confederate monuments have with regards to their history, their locations, and the kind of places where they tend to be built.

为此，我将主要关注希望可读和可访问的图表和图像。 如果愿意，您可以深入阅读所有内容，但是仅浏览图形就可以使您对正在发生的事情有所了解。 我们将研究同盟国纪念碑的历史 ， 位置和倾向于建造的地方的类型 。

Without further ado, let’s get into the numbers.

事不宜迟，让我们进入数字。

第1部分：清除记录 (Part 1: Erasing History)

A common argument for the preservation of Confederate symbolism is that these symbols and monuments are “a part of history,” and that we risk erasing or censoring historical fact by removing them from public places.

维护同盟象征主义的一个普遍论点是，这些象征和纪念碑是“历史的一部分”，我们有可能通过将其从公共场所移走来擦除或审查历史事实。

With this in mind, we’ll start off by looking at how the Confederate symbols are distributed across time. That is, we’d like to know the years of post-Civil War history during which most of them went up. The SPLC dataset that I based this report on includes information on when most of these symbols were instated, so we can plot these in a histogram to track the creation of such symbols across history:

考虑到这一点，我们将开始研究同盟符号在时间上的分布方式。 也就是说，我们想知道南北战争之后的大部分年里的历史。 我基于此报告创建的SPLC数据集包含有关何时恢复大多数这些符号的信息，因此我们可以将它们绘制在直方图中以跟踪整个历史记录中此类符号的创建：

This plot groups symbols by their year of dedication, and shows how many symbols went up within each (approximately) 4-year span between the end of the Civil War and today. Clearly, the biggest spike in Confederate symbol creation happened between 1900–1920, followed by a second pronounced spike centered on the 1960s.

该图按符号的奉献年限对符号进行分组，并显示在内战结束后到今天的每4年(大约)内上升了多少符号。 显然，同盟符号创建的最大峰值发生在1900-1920年之间，随后第二个明显的峰值出现在1960年代。

What was going on during these years? Well…

这些年来发生了什么事？ 好…

This plot represents something slightly different from the first one. Now, we’re looking at the relative proportion of symbols that belong to each 4-year period.

此图表示与第一个图略有不同。 现在，我们正在查看属于每个4年期的符号的相对比例。

You’ll also notice that this plot includes some major historical events to put things into context. Historians generally associate the first wave (1900–1920) with a push to memorialize the Civil War as the last veterans began to pass away; the second wave (1950–1968) is generally associated with the Civil Rights Movement.

您还将注意到，该情节包括一些重要的历史事件，可以将其置于上下文中。 历史学家们通常将第一波浪潮(1900-1920年)与纪念内战的努力联系起来，因为最后的退伍军人开始过世。 第二波(1950年至1968年)通常与民权运动有关。

At any rate, these distributions show that the history of Confederate symbolism is much more closely associated with pushes for Black equality than to the Civil War itself. Major events tied to the Jim Crow era like Plessy v. Ferguson and the Civil Rights Movement directly coincide with peaks in symbol dedication.

无论如何，这些分布表明，同盟象征主义的历史与推动黑人平等的关系比内战本身更为紧密。 与吉姆·克劳时代相关的重大事件，如普莱西诉弗格森(Plessy v。Ferguson)和民权运动直接与象征奉献精神达到顶峰。

My Take: Confederate symbolism, across history, is directly tied to major pushes for Black equality. The 1950–1968 spike is a clear response to the Civil Rights Movement pushing for the end of Jim Crow laws.

我的观点：跨越历史的同盟象征主义与黑人平等的重大推动力直接相关。 1950年至1968年的飙升是对民权运动推动吉姆·克劳法律终结的明确回应。

As for the early 1900s spike, we know that the extinction of Civil War veterans during that period re-inspired a lot of interest in the war. But we also know that this was an intensely racist period in history during which the infamous Jim Crow laws were first being put into place in the wake of Reconstruction amidst the backdrop of a Ku Klux Klan rising to power.

至于1900年代初期的高峰，我们知道那段时期内战退伍军人的灭亡重新激发了人们对战争的兴趣。 但是，我们也知道，这是历史上一个强烈的种族主义时期，在此期间，在古柯克兰党(Ku Klux Klan Klan)上台之后，臭名昭著的吉姆·克劳(Jim Crow)法律在重建后首次制定。

At this point it might be too early to definitively see a pattern, but we’ll revisit these facts in a minute.

在这一点上，要确定一种模式可能还为时过早，但是我们将在一分钟内重新审视这些事实。

第2部分：美国同盟国 (Part 2: The Confederate States of America)

Now, we’ll take a look at how Confederate symbols are distributed geographically. We’ll take a look at which parts of which states have the most monuments, and we’ll put this into historical context like in the last part.

现在，我们来看看Confederate符号在地理上的分布方式。 我们将看看哪些州的哪些地方拥有最多的古迹，并将像最后一部分一样将其纳入历史背景。

First, here is a map of all of our symbols across the United States, colored by the type of symbol:

首先，这是我们在美国境内所有符号的地图，并按符号类型进行了着色：

Right off the bat, it’s pretty clear that the vast majority of Confederate symbols are concentrated in the former C.S.A, with some scattered across former border (Union slave) states.

马上，很明显，绝大多数同盟符号都集中在前CSA中，有些则分散在前边界(联盟奴隶)州。

We can also tell that most of the symbols covered in the dataset are monuments, and that more monuments specifically are concentrated in the Southeast relative to, say, Texas.

我们还可以告诉我们，数据集中涵盖的大多数符号都是纪念碑，而且相对于德克萨斯州，更多的纪念碑专门集中在东南地区。

In fact, we can actually get the direct breakdown of how many symbols there are for each of the 5 major types:

实际上，我们实际上可以直接得到5种主要类型中每种符号的数量的细分：

Now, let’s get a better feel for where symbols are concentrated with a density plot, which basically shows us the relative concentration of symbols in a given area. The more symbols that come from a region, the darker that region will appear on the map.

现在，让我们更好地了解使用密度图集中符号的位置，该图基本上向我们显示了给定区域中符号的相对浓度。 来自某个区域的符号越多，该区域将在地图上显示的越暗。

Now we have a more precise sense for where symbols are concentrated. According to our map, the distribution of Confederate symbols is most focused on South Carolina and Georgia in one hotspot, and Northern Virginia in another.

现在，我们对符号集中的位置有了更精确的认识。 根据我们的地图，同盟国符号的分布最集中于一个热点地区的南卡罗来纳州和乔治亚州，以及另​​一个热点地区的北弗吉尼亚州。

So far, all we’ve been able to learn is that most of these symbols are concentrated in former Confederate states, but (importantly) almost all of the rest are concentrated in slaveholding states that remained in the Union. So what do these monument-heavy regions look like in terms of demographics?

到目前为止，我们所能了解到的是， 大多数符号都集中在前联邦国家 ，但(重要的) 几乎所有其余 符号都集中在 仍留在联盟中的奴隶制国家。 那么，这些人口稠密的地区在人口统计方面是什么样的呢？

My Take: Confederate symbols pretty definitively follow former CSA borders — but there are also a great number in border states considering that a great majority of men in those states fought for the Union.

我的观点：同盟国的标志明确地沿袭了前CSA边界- 但考虑到这些州中的大多数人为联盟而战，边境国家中也有很多人。

It might be more accurate to say that Confederate symbols follow the borders of legalized slavery, which further ties the cause of the Confederacy directly to the practice of forced enslavement of Black people.

可以说，同盟符号遵循合法奴隶制的边界，这将同盟的根源直接与黑人的奴役直接联系在一起。

第三部分：目标 (Part 3: The Target)

Now that we’ve seen where Confederate symbols tend to be, we can go a step further and investigate what the areas with the most symbols tend to look like demographically. To do this, I imported data from the 2017 U.S. Census, which among other things breaks down the ethnicity of the population of every county in the United States.

既然我们已经了解了同盟符号的位置，那么我们可以更进一步，研究符号最多的区域在人口统计学上的趋势。 为此，我从2017年美国人口普查中导入了数据，除其他外，该数据细分了美国每个县的人口种族。

We can use this county-level information to take a deeper dive into the demographics of monument-heavy regions. In particular, we’re interested in which counties have a high population percentage of Black people vs a high population percentage of white people.

我们可以使用该县级信息来深入研究纪念碑丰碑地区的人口统计信息。 特别是，我们对哪些县的黑人人口比例高而白人的人口比例高感兴趣。

First, a disclaimer: For demographic data, I chose to focus entirely on the population percentages of white and Black people. Many counties also have a large percentage of people who belong to other racial categories, but I chose specifically to focus on these two groups given the wider context.

首先，免责声明：对于人口统计数据，我选择将重点完全放在白人和黑人的人口百分比上。 许多县也有很大一部分人属于其他种族类别，但是鉴于更广阔的背景 ，我选择特别关注这两个群体。

First we can directly plot county population percentages on a map which shows, by color, the relative percentage of the population that belongs to each racial group:

首先，我们可以在地图上直接绘制县人口百分比，该地图以颜色显示属于每个种族群体的人口的相对百分比：

These maps show us which counties have a higher Black and white population proportion, respectively. What might be even more interesting, though, is to see which counties have a larger white majority, which have a larger black majority, and which have a roughly even split.

这些地图向我们显示了哪些县的黑人和白人人口比例分别更高。 不过，可能更有趣的是，查看哪些县的白人占多数，哪个县的黑人占多数，哪个县的分裂程度大致相等。

We can do this by combining the two maps above into a single map, which shows colors based on the Black population percentage minus the white population percentage — in other words, the difference or gap between each proportion of the population.

我们可以通过将上面的两个地图组合成一个地图来完成此操作，该地图将显示基于黑人人口百分比减去白人人口百分比(即，每个人口比例之间的差异或差距)的颜色。

Finally, we can overlay our plot of concentration from before on top of this map to see how symbol concentration relates to the gap in population percentages.

最后，我们可以从地图上方的之前叠加我们的浓度图，以了解符号浓度与人口百分比差距之间的关系。

What can we take from this? Well, while distributed across most of the South, Confederate symbols also seem to be heavily concentrated (with some exceptions) in areas where Black people make up at least a significant part of the population.

我们可以从中得到什么？ 好吧，尽管在大多数南部地区分布，但同盟国符号似乎也高度集中在黑人至少占人口大部分的地区(有一些例外)。

While it’s nice to get an idea of how demographics and monument density interact geographically, we should also try to get a more exact idea of how the gap in population percentages relates to the amount of Confederate symbolism in an area.

了解人口统计数据和纪念碑密度在地理上是如何相互作用的，这很不错，但我们还应该尝试更准确地了解人口百分比差距与某个地区的同盟象征主义数量之间的关系。

In fact, we can go even further and see how the concentration of Confederate symbolism in a county compares to the overall median for the region. This will tell us the characteristics of those counties that have a monument density that’s higher than the rest of the pack.

实际上，我们可以走得更远，看看郡县中同盟象征主义的集中度与该地区的整体中位数相比如何。 这将告诉我们那些纪念碑密度高于其他地方的县的特征。

Another disclaimer: In this section, I chose to focus entirely on counties from the former C.S.A. and border states. I did this because this is where virtually all monuments are concentrated, and including other regions drops the median to near-zero.

另一个免责声明：在本节中，我选择将重点完全放在前CSA和边境州的县。 我这样做是因为实际上这是所有古迹集中的地方，包括其他区域在内，其中位数几乎降至零。

This scatterplot shows us the difference in county population percentage from before vs the density of Confederate symbols in each county. Each point represents a single county.

此散点图向我们展示了县人口百分比与之前相比与每个县的邦联符号密度之间的差异。 每个点代表一个县。

From this plot we can see that while white-majority counties tend to have a pretty even spread of monument densities, almost all of the Black-majority counties have an above-median density of Confederate symbol. To be exact, 87 (70.16%) of Black majority counties have an above-median concentration of symbols, while 37 (29.84%) have a below-median concentration. This is compared to 47.54% of white majority communities that are above the median.

从该图可以看出，虽然白人占多数的县往往分布着相当均匀的纪念碑密度，但几乎所有黑人占多数的县都具有高于同等密度的同盟国标志。 确切地说，黑人占多数的县中有87个(70.16％)的符号浓度高于中值，而黑人占多数的县中的37个(29.84％)的符号浓度低于中值。 相比之下，白人中产阶级社区中位数以上的占47.54％ 。

Additionally, we can notice a big gap of empty space right below the median line for counties with a slight white majority. This suggests that, in general, counties with both a large Black and white presence have an above-average concentration of Confederate symbolism.

此外，对于少数白人占多数的县，我们可以看到中位数线正下方有很大的空白空间。 这表明，总体上，拥有大量黑人和白人的县的同盟象征主义集中度高于平均水平。

Statistically, the probability of this being due to random chance is virtually zero. This is definitely a statistically significant difference.

从统计上讲，这是由于随机机会引起的概率实际上为零。 这绝对是统计学上的显着差异。

The main takeaway from this part is that while white majority counties tend to be spread pretty evenly around the median, most Black majority counties have a greater concentration of Confederate monuments.

从这一部分得出的主要结论是，虽然白人占多数的县倾向于在中位数附近平均分布，但大多数黑人占多数的县的同盟纪念碑更为集中。

My Take: At this point, the evidence is pretty damning. With each part in isolation, you could make the case that the demographics or distribution of monuments are tied to the remaining legacy of the Civil War more than anything or other similar arguments.

我的观点：在这一点上，证据是非常可恶的。 通过将每个部分隔离开来，您可以证明，人口统计数据或纪念碑的分布与内战的剩余遗产息息相关，远胜于任何其他论点或其他类似论点。

Of course, these things have a major effect on the status of Confederate symbolism now. But when we consider that monuments are often built during times when Black people push for equality, combined with the fact that regions with a higher Black majority tend to have a very high number of them, the picture is clear.

当然，这些事情现在对同盟象征主义的地位产生重大影响。 但是，当我们考虑到纪念碑通常是在黑人争取平等的时期建造的，再加上黑人占多数的地区往往有很多这样的事实，这是显而易见的。

Confederate symbolism goes beyond the C.S.A.’s Civil War cause — it’s directly tied to systematic, reactionary discrimination against Black people in the wake of Reconstruction. Whether it’s to intimidate or hearken back to a racist past, Confederate symbols go up when Black people push for civil rights, in places where Black people can see them.

邦联的象征意义超出了CSA内战的原因-它与重建后对黑人的系统性反动歧视直接相关。 不管是吓or还是回避种族主义的过去，当黑人争取民权时，在黑人都能看到的地方，同盟符号就会上升。

第四部分：历史，重温 (Part 4: History, Revisited)

In this fourth and final part, we’ll revisit the argument that Confederate monuments are a party of history. Although we showed before that Confederate symbols mostly went up decades after the Civil War, it might also be worth seeing if their geographic location might be tied also to the history of the war itself instead of merely to slavery or Jim Crow.

在第四部分(也是最后一部分)中，我们将重新讨论同盟古迹是历史的一面。 尽管我们之前曾证明过，同盟符号大部分是在内战之后数十年上升的，但也许还值得一看，它们的地理位置是否也可能与战争历史联系在一起，而不是仅仅与奴隶制或吉姆·克劳联系在一起。

In particular, we might be interested in seeing if Confederate symbols tend to be clustered around areas which saw a lot of major battles, or areas where prominent Confederate leaders were born.

特别是，我们可能有兴趣查看同盟的符号是否倾向于聚集在发生许多重大战役的 地区或著名的同盟领导人出生的地区附近 。

We can do the first by simply revisiting our first density plot from Part 2, and plotting locations where major battles were fought over it. Doing this gives us the following map:

我们可以通过简单地回顾第2部分中的第一个密度图并绘制在其中进行主要战斗的位置来完成第一个任务。 这样做为我们提供了以下地图：

We can see that there are some battles which were fought in the high-density regions of Virginia and South Carolina/Georgia, but that there are also major clusters of battles in places like Missouri and Oklahoma that don’t coincide with a high concentration of symbols. Overall, the biggest cluster of battles is in northern Virginia, which we know was a major center of the war in many ways.

我们可以看到，在弗吉尼亚州和南卡罗来纳州/乔治亚州的高密度地区曾发生过一些战斗，但在密苏里州和俄克拉荷马州等地也有许多战斗，这些战斗并没有与符号。 总体而言，最大的战斗群是在弗吉尼亚北部，从许多方面来看，我们都知道这是战争的主要中心。

Overall, there doesn’t seem to be a very strong relationship between battle and symbol location.

总体而言，战斗和符号位置之间似乎没有很紧密的关系。

Finally, we can plot the birthplaces of various major Confederate leaders instead:

最后，我们可以绘制各个同盟主要领导人的出生地：

Again, there doesn’t seem to be a major relationship between birthplace and symbol density here. It’s worth noting that two Confederate generals were born right in the epicenter of symbol-rich zones (James Longstreet in South Carolina and Nathan Bedford Forrest in Tennessee). Longstreet, however, was branded a failure and a traitor to the Confederacy by the Lost Cause movement in the wake of the Civil War, while Forrest was an extreme racist even by the standards of his time who massacred Black soldiers and became the first Grand Wizard of the KKK.

同样，这里的出生地和符号密度似乎没有主要关系。 值得注意的是，有两个同盟国将军出生在符号丰富的地区的震中(南卡罗来纳州的詹姆斯·朗斯特里特和田纳西州的内森·贝德福德·福雷斯特)。 然而，内战后，Longstreet被迷失原因运动标志为同盟的失败者和叛徒 ，而即使按他当时的标准，福雷斯特还是极端种族主义者，他屠杀了黑人士兵并成为了第一位大巫师KKK的

Here, too, the majority of birthplaces don’t really coincide with a higher density of Confederate symbolism.

同样，在这里，大多数出生地与同盟象征主义的密度实际上并不一致。

My Take: In exploring the argument that Confederate symbols are portrayals of history, it seems we’ve actually shown almost the opposite: Confederate symbols don’t really seem to be tied to the Civil War history of the regions they’re in at all.

我的观点：在探讨同盟符号是历史刻画的论点时，似乎我们实际上显示了几乎相反的事实：同盟符号似乎与它们所在地区的内战历史并没有真正的联系。

It might be interesting to take this a step further and see if monuments tend to be related to the battles/birthplaces they’re clustered around, but I felt that was a little beyond the scope of this analysis.

进一步走下去，看看纪念碑是否倾向于与其聚集的战斗/出生地有关，可能会很有趣，但是我觉得这超出了本分析的范围。

解读 (The Interpretation)

Data and the analysis of them can often be tricky and complicated, with no conclusive interpretations even after hours of searching.

数据及其分析通常很棘手，也很复杂，即使经过数小时的搜索也没有最终的解释。

In this case, however, the data are clear. Confederate symbols are deeply ingrained in the history of enslavement and discrimination against Black people. These symbols were — and continue to be — tools of intimidation and hate in an ongoing struggle for civil rights. Remember, these aren’t monuments from history that passively remain in place; they actively continue to be supported and maintained by tens of millions of taxpayer dollars.

但是，在这种情况下，数据是清晰的。 在奴役和歧视黑人的历史上，邦联的象征已根深蒂固。 在不断争取民权的斗争中，这些象征曾经是(并且继续是)恐吓和仇恨的工具。 请记住，这些不是历史遗留下来的遗迹； 他们继续积极地得到数千万美元纳税人的支持和维护。

As local communities have been demanding for generations (despite opposition that usually comes from the state level), these monuments to racism must come down. You, too, can take action by holding your state legislature accountable — with the power of the vote and protest, many monuments have already been removed despite opposition from state governors and legislatures.

由于当地社区世代相传的要求 (尽管通常来自州政府的反对)，这些种族主义的纪念碑必须倒下。 您也可以通过追究州立法机关的责任来采取行动-尽管有州州长和立法机关的反对，但凭借投票和抗议的力量，许多纪念碑已被拆除。

We’ve spent enough time and money preserving these symbols of cruelty. Let’s leave them behind once and for all, and build in their place an America dedicated to all of us.

我们已经花费了足够的时间和金钱来维护这些残酷的象征。 让我们将他们一劳永逸地抛在后面，在他们的位置上建立一个致力于我们所有人的美国。

后记：数据 (Afterword: The Data)

In this section I’ll briefly go over where the data I used were obtained and make a few notes about how I handled them.

在本节中，我将简要介绍获取我使用的数据的位置，并就如何处理它们做一些说明。

The primary dataset covering Confederate symbols themselves came from the illustrious Southern Poverty Law Center, which holds a large-scale dataset that tracks information about active and inactive Confederate monuments all over the nation. That dataset is free and open-source for anyone to use, and can be found here. I mentioned that the dataset tracks both monuments which are active (still publicly supported) and inactive (removed). For the purposes of this analysis, I focused only on those which were still active, as I wanted to avoid any arguments that inactive monuments might be irrelevant.

涵盖同盟国符号本身的主要数据集来自着名的南方贫困法律中心，该中心拥有大规模的数据集，该数据集跟踪有关全国各地活跃和不活跃的联邦纪念碑的信息。 该数据集是免费的并且开源的，任何人都可以使用，可以在这里找到。 我提到过，数据集同时跟踪了处于活动状态(仍受公共支持)和不活动状态(已移除)的纪念碑。 出于此分析的目的，我仅关注那些仍处于活动状态的对象，因为我想避免任何有关不活动的纪念碑可能无关紧要的争论。

For the state and county maps, I drew from the 2018 US Census data on state/county lines. For county-level demographics data, I drew from the 2017 US Census. These were the most recent data I could find.

对于州和县地图，我从2018年美国人口普查数据中提取了州/县线。 对于县级人口统计数据，我来自2017年美国人口普查。 这些是我能找到的最新数据。

I obtained the data on Civil War battles from Wikipedia, which keeps a compiled list of all major battles of the Civil War and their locations. Finally, data on Confederate leader birthplaces was generated using an Excel table and my own personal, good old-fashioned research.

我从Wikipedia获得了有关内战的数据，该数据保留了内战所有主要战役及其位置的汇总列表。 最后，有关邦联领导者出生地的数据是使用Excel表和我自己的私人老式研究得出的。

For my fellow nerds, feel free to check my math at https://github.com/c1rowe/confederate-symbols. All of my code (JupyterNB)/data/analyses/plots are contained therein.

对于我的书呆子同学，请随时访问https://github.com/c1rowe/confederate-symbols检查我的数学运算。 我所有的代码(JupyterNB)/数据/分析/绘图都包含在其中。